A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Beantowne]

Our pen is too weak to talk about sending someone like ERod down to AAA.

 

Erod will get every opportunity to earn a spot in the rotation. Option two would be sending him to triple a to stay stretched out and pitch every five days...Price, Sale, Porcello, Pomeranz are likely locks for the 1-4 with Wright or Erod competing for 5th starter slot. Wright would be the guy i see better suited to be the swing man. if Erod wins the job in spring.

 

To early in the process to grade the quality of the pen...they have solid building blocks in place and the bullpen is a work in progress with lots of time to add and subtract...Workman might be the sleeper if his arm is sound and as we saw with both the Guardians and Cubs. impact arms are always available if you're willing to pay market price.

[Kimmi]

93 wins is reasonable.

 

This indicates that FanGraphs assesses the overall strength of the 2017 team as about the same as the 2016 team.

 

I think our current team is overall a little better than last year's team. Our offense will not be quite as good, but our pitching and defense should be better. But yes, 93 wins is reasonable.

[Kimmi]

In terms of who the 5 man rotation will be I think it could be a pissing contest in here until we are in week two of the season. The first three are locks in Sale, Porcello and Price but after that there is a good argument for all of Wright, Pomeranz, and ERod.

 

Drew Pomeranz.

Why he will be the starter: Because of his first half last year, the hefty price the Sox paid for him, and the hope that with some added stamina he can replicate his first half for a whole season going forward.

Why he won't be the starter: Someone is the odd man out, he doesn't have the ability to lock down a rotation spot for 32 games and he has more experience of pitching out of the bullpen than the other three. With sucess I might add.

 

Stephen Wright

 

Why he will be the starter: Again he had a really good start to the 2016 season, and at the end of the day he really only had one bad 6 week stretch in August and September. Besides that he pitched like an ACE most of the year and has a track record of average to above average results in Boston and the minors the past 3 years.

Why he won't be the starter: No matter how well knuckleballers pitch they always seem to come with some question marks. Their performance can be volatile from game to game and from season to season. There is a sense he was pitching above his talent last year and again at the end of the day someone has to be the odd man out. For a guy who is kind of a one trick pony it becomes pretty easy to throw him into the swing man role which also allows the Red Sox to avoid optioning Eduardo Rodriguez.

 

Eduardo Rodriguez

 

Why he will be the starter: Talent and upside. We've all seen his potential here and in Pawtucket the past few years, with youth on his side and injury behind him he seems primed for a break out season. He very well may have the capacity to be the better pitcher over the next few years than Wright or Pomeranz.

 

Why he won't be the starter: He has an option left, which gives the Sox the option to keep him ready in Pawtucket if anyone from the five man rotation goes down or severely under performs. History tells us this will happen. Despite his upside and high ceiling talent he's never seemed to fully put it together for a full season and considering the last point I made it makes sense for him to get some innings in Pawtucket and prove he's ready and overcome some of his pitch tipping issues while he waits for his next chance.

 

 

Now I'm sure some here would agree or disagree with many of these points but that's they whole point of this post. I don't think there is a silver bullet answer for what to do, but if I had to guess I'd say all things being equal in spring training that Pomeranz and E-Rod take the 4th and 5th spots while Wright becomes the swing man out of the bullpen. But as the old saying goes, these types of things have a way of working themselves out.

 

Solid post Hugh. I think a good case could be made for any 2 of ERod, Pomeranz, and Wright getting the last 2 rotation spots. It will work itself out somehow.

[Kimmi]

On paper, our pen is much worse than the Guardians as of now. I think we have them beat everywhere else, except for base running.

 

Our pen as a separate unit might be weaker, but the ability of our starters to give the team a lot of quality innings makes the bullpen that much deeper and stronger. That said, I would still like to see us keep as many viable arms as we reasonably can.

[Kimmi]

For me the tipper is the fact that Pom can be a productive reliever and has the most experience of the three pitchers in the swingman role. The best argument for not using Pomeranz in the pen is a sunk cost fallacy. Take Anderson Espinosa's trade value out of a decision it really has no place in. Pomeranz is the pitcher of the 3 with the least track record as a fulltime starter, pretty much just this year. He's also the pitcher with the best overall relief performance. The decision starts to look pretty clearcut at that point.

 

If we needed a starter Pom would have every chance to be more than adequate and would be at the bottom if not the middle of nearly every rotation in baseball. I'm not throwing stones at Drew Pomeranz, far from it. But we have a dead heat here, and as far as tiebreakers go for who to transition from one role to another, "guy who was most effective in the other role" seems like the way to roll out the gate.

 

And this is really a question of how to get out of the gate. All 6 starters will get regular action. As the season goes on I have no doubt that whoever sits in that swingman role will make a dozen starts probably more -- again, though, Pomeranz' experience as a very successful swingman actually makes him a rare and potentially valuable assets. True swingmen who can move back and forth from the rotation to the pen, the way Pomeranz did before last year, while maintaining a high level of productivity, are actually pretty darned rare, that's why the job gets given to junktime guys so often, but a guy who CAN do that? Especially if he can swap in and out of the rotation as needed withouit getting hurt or losing effectiveness? Gold. Pure gold.

 

Hell, there's a distinct possibility that the team may transition to a 6 man rotation and sidestep the whole issue if everyone is healthy and productive, especially if we're getting into a long string of games with no off days. It's a luxury to have 6 good starters, one that grants us strategic options we don't normally have -- shame if we failed to take advantage.

 

Good points made about Pomeranz.

 

JMO, but I get the feeling that Dombrowski views and wants Pomeranz as a starter, not as a reliever.

 

If I had to guess, I'd say ERod and Pom get the #4 and 5 spots, with Wright going to the pen. I'm not saying that I necessarily agree with that, but I think that's the way it's going to play out.

[Kimmi]

I don't know how they figured that out (93 wins). That doesn't quite compute with me. I see us not winning as many blow-out games as last year (30-11) even though let's say those wins could still be wins, but there's a better chance we won't lose as many blow-outs either. Sox were 20-24 in one-run games, I see that changing for the batter as well. How much? I don't know. Over-all we shouldn't have to score 5-6 runs a game, let's say 4-5 runs a game per average. I like our Ortiz-less offense if guys like XB, JBJ, Beni continue to make strides. I fully expected Betts to have the kind of season he did but not last year, more like two years later (2018). I felt he'd be this good someday, not this good this quickly. If he comes within a stones throw to the season he had that should be fine. Not having to face EE (& maybe even Bautista) 19 games should help because they were our stiffest competition out of any team we faced during the regular season. SOx were 9-10 vs Toronto (most losses vs any team) even though we out-scored them 97-85. There's other things like losing streaks. Our longest was a 4 game losing streak that happened once (not too shabby really), but we had a lot of 3 game losing streaks, 7 (I think). This coming season, I don't see us losing 4 games in a row ever on top of having less 3-game losing streaks. I have to cut this short 'cause it x-mas, but I don't think I'm having delusions of grandeur here when I think (on paper) 103 wins is closer to reality than 93.

 

I'm not sure exactly how they come up with 93 wins either, but they are still inputting data, and the projections will be updated a few times before the season starts. Like you, I think this year's team is a little better than last year's team, though I don't think they will get close to 103 wins.

 

I'm guessing our run differential will be close to what it is this year, with our pitching improved but our offense slightly weakened. That's largely what drives W-L projections. Records in one run games are mostly due to chance. We may improve in that are next year, we may not.

[Kimmi]

Our pen is too weak to talk about sending someone like ERod down to AAA.

 

Having a weak pen might be all the more reason to send ERod down.

[Kimmi]

Hey Moon,

Just found this forum, saw you and a few others from the old BDC forums here. Hope all is well and you're enjoying the holidays...Don't have much to add to this thread. I like the 2017 teams chances with the addition of Sale

 

Welcome Bean!

[Bellhorn04]

The real story in those projections for us is the 93 wins taking the AL East by 10 games. Gotta like that.

[Spudboy]

The real story in those projections for us is the 93 wins taking the AL East by 10 games. Gotta like that.

 

Well with the way that Toronto and Baltimore are currently trending I can see winning the East by 10 games as possible.

 

Not likely, but possible.

[moonslav59]

After 2017, we'll have as many as 16 players in arbitration process, 6 more under contract but Sale will require $6M bump in luxury tax computation.

 

We only have Moreland ($5.5M), Young ($6.5M) and possibly Abad (anticipated $2M in year 3 arb this year) for total of $14M coming off the books. We can get some relief if we pick up the club option for Kimbrel ($12M) and trade him assuming Kelly, Smith, Thornburg, Ross, Hembree and Barnes all come through and improve. Do something similar to what we did with Clay B.

 

What I'm getting at is we still won't have much financial wiggle room next year. At some point, we'll have to trade away a $20M contract for prospects so we can keep our core together.

 

That's one reason resetting the tax was important. We can afford to go over by almost $20M next year.

[moonslav59]

Having a weak pen might be all the more reason to send ERod down.

 

So we can keep Abad?

 

I'd rather have Wright or Pom in the pen than have Abad remain on the roster. Our pen would be much stronger.

[notin]

Good points made about Pomeranz.

 

JMO, but I get the feeling that Dombrowski views and wants Pomeranz as a starter, not as a reliever.

 

If I had to guess, I'd say ERod and Pom get the #4 and 5 spots, with Wright going to the pen. I'm not saying that I necessarily agree with that, but I think that's the way it's going to play out.

 

That strikes me as the most likely option, based on zero actual information.

 

I prefer either Pomeranz to the pen or Rodriguez to AAA....

[notin]

So we can keep Abad?

 

I'd rather have Wright or Pom in the pen than have Abad remain on the roster. Our pen would be much stronger.

 

Take Abad out of the picture. He isn't a guarantee to take that last bullpen slot. There are plenty of other arms available and 6 or 7 weeks until pitchers and catchers report....

[moonslav59]

Take Abad out of the picture. He isn't a guarantee to take that last bullpen slot. There are plenty of other arms available and 6 or 7 weeks until pitchers and catchers report....

 

Only Abad & Hembee are out of options, so everyone else can remain as AAA depth. ERod, Wright $ Pom are all better in our pen than our bottom 2-3 guys.

[harmony]

The 2016 Red Sox, who scored 100+ more runs than any other team, scored fewer runs than the 2015 Toronto Blue Jays, who scored 127 more runs than their closest rival.

 

The 2016 Blue Jays finished ninth in runs scored without losing a David Ortiz-caliber hitter from the previous season.

 

Regression -- and plain randomness -- come into play for most clubs,

Edited December 27, 2016 by harmony

[Nick]

That's one reason resetting the tax was important. We can afford to go over by almost $20M next year.

 

We'll need to trade for a 4th OF for 2018.....I don't think we can afford to keep Young. Maybe if it doesn't work out with Swihart, he can learn to be a back up in LF, C, 1B and 3B.

 

I don't see anyone close to being ready in the minors.

[moonslav59]

We'll need to trade for a 4th OF for 2018.....I don't think we can afford to keep Young. Maybe if it doesn't work out with Swihart, he can learn to be a back up in LF, C, 1B and 3B.

 

I don't see anyone close to being ready in the minors.

 

We could also sign a 4th OF'er rather than trade for one, but I doubt we spend much.

 

With 3 young OF'ers, I suppose we could try to go with Holt and Swihart as back-ups.

 

With Moreland up for free agency as well, maybe we'll sign another 1B/LF (DH) type player for a one year deal.

[moonslav59]

How about this?

 

Trade: Owens, Abad, Hembree & Elias

to the A's

For:

Sean Doolittle: ($2.1M luxury tax cost until 2019)--17:$2.6M, 18:$4.35M, 19:$6M club option ($0.5M buyout), 20:$6.5M club option ($0.5M buyout)

Ryan Dull: 5 years of team control (2 pre-arb)

 

I'm probably dreaming again. We might be lucky to get one of these guys for this package.

[moonslav59]

soxprospects.com has Kelly as a starting pitcher in AAA next season, Wright in the pen and Abad & Hembree on the 25 man roster.

[raider_35_24]

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2016/12/red_sox_consider_deal_for_utility_player_trevor_plouffe#.WGH3TPdWrw8.twitter

[southpaw777]

soxprospects.com has Kelly as a starting pitcher in AAA next season, Wright in the pen and Abad & Hembree on the 25 man roster.

 

Sounds like they're just trying to fill spots right now .. pretty sure the sox see Kelly as a reliever now and in the future...at least here in Boston. they gave him a shot as a starter and nothing worked out at all.. he goes to relief role and he looked pretty good. he should remain a reliever if I had to guess...hes better And has had more success in that role. The 100mph heater helps with his offspeed stuff. He cant get up there like that as a starter and theres less seperation, thus less effectiveness of his pitches. Also hes just better airing it out instead of a starters approach.

I hope he really blossoms in a late inning role. Hes got that mentality it seems.

Edited December 27, 2016 by southpaw777

[oldtimer]

Sounds like they're just trying to fill spots right now .. pretty sure the sox see Kelly as a reliever now and in the future...at least here in Boston. they gave him a shot as a starter and nothing worked out at all.. he goes to relief role and he looked pretty good. he should remain a reliever if I had to guess...hes better And has had more success in that role. The 100mph heater helps with his offspeed stuff. He cant get up there like that as a starter and theres less seperation, thus less effectiveness of his pitches. Also hes just better airing it out instead of a starters approach.

I hope he really blossoms in a late inning role. Hes got that mentality it seems.

 

I don't see the room for Kelly as a starter on the Sox team at least at the ML level. He does have the stuff to be a setup man or even closer going forward. He has gained experience and may even develop an additional pitch in the off season so we may see Kelly become a very important part of the BP.

[notin]

I don't see the room for Kelly as a starter on the Sox team at least at the ML level. He does have the stuff to be a setup man or even closer going forward. He has gained experience and may even develop an additional pitch in the off season so we may see Kelly become a very important part of the BP.

 

I think soxprospects.com is just squeezing in names wherever they can.

 

But returning Kelly to a starting role in Pawtucket is certainly an option the Sox have and fills a need for the Sox. They aren't going to get through the season with their 6 starters they have now, and the #7 and #8 guys (Owens and Johnson) have yet to inspire any confidence in me...

[Bellhorn04]

How about this?

 

Trade: Owens, Abad, Hembree & Elias

 

Nice 'Garbage Pack', moon!

[Emp9]

I'm not sure exactly how they come up with 93 wins either, but they are still inputting data, and the projections will be updated a few times before the season starts. Like you, I think this year's team is a little better than last year's team, though I don't think they will get close to 103 wins.

 

I'm guessing our run differential will be close to what it is this year, with our pitching improved but our offense slightly weakened. That's largely what drives W-L projections. Records in one run games are mostly due to chance. We may improve in that are next year, we may not.

 

To an extent, Run differential is exactly why I'm thinking Sox should be closer to 100 than 90. Runs Against in particular I expect improvement. Extent being that blow-out wins pad the overall offensive numbers that weren't necessary for the same result. Our offense doesn't need to score more on the year to be better. They just have to score more consistently from game to game. This could be the most balanced Red Sox team I've ever seen going in. I'm also not simply looking at our team, but the rest of the ALE. I'm going with a conservative 98 wins.

[moonslav59]

Sounds like they're just trying to fill spots right now .. pretty sure the sox see Kelly as a reliever now and in the future...at least here in Boston. they gave him a shot as a starter and nothing worked out at all.. he goes to relief role and he looked pretty good. he should remain a reliever if I had to guess...hes better And has had more success in that role. The 100mph heater helps with his offspeed stuff. He cant get up there like that as a starter and theres less seperation, thus less effectiveness of his pitches. Also hes just better airing it out instead of a starters approach.

I hope he really blossoms in a late inning role. Hes got that mentality it seems.

 

I like Kelly as a RP'er more as well. I think soxprospects put him in AAA, so Abad & Hembree could be spared a trade or DFA.

[a700hitter]

My 2017 Staff:

Starters:

 

Porcello

Price

Sale

ERod

Wright

 

Relievers:

 

Pomeranz (6th/7th inning)

Barnes (6th/7th inning)

Kimbrel (Closer)

Thornburg (8th inning)

Kelly

Ross

TBA

[a700hitter]

Sox interested in Trevor Plouffe. That would make a good platoon with Pablo. He is fairly versatile i the field too.

[moonslav59]

Sox interested in Trevor Plouffe. That would make a good platoon with Pablo. He is fairly versatile i the field too.

 

He has an .809 OPS vs LHPs career. He's been around .780 vs LHPs the last 2 years.

 

Seems like a better fit than Rutledge.