A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[moonslav59]

As I said in my previous post, trading Buchholz probably gets rid of enough of the starter logjam so that we don't have to worry about it.

 

I just take exception with the posts that state that it's a stupid idea or that it would never happen.

 

It is far from a stupid idea and it happens all the time.

 

No, you're not going to send someone like Sale down just because he has options. But someone who is slated to be the #4 or #5 when Pomeranz or Wright could do just as good a job, you absolutely consider it. Even if it only means saving a potentially very good pen arm.

 

I don't disagree that situations like this can and do happen, but with this case, it really boils down to ERod vs Abad or ERod vs Hembree, and this is assuming no injuries and no willingness to create a phantom DL scenario for a RP'er. Again, assuming everyone is healthy and looking decent in ST'ing, is it really worth starting ERod at AAA, so we can keep the $2M Abad?

 

I just don't see it being considered, unless ERod looks shaky in ST'ing, and he's not going to start. Putting ERod in the pen makes little sense, even if he is better than ABad, but I thought this whole argument was assuming everyone was healthy and looking at least decent in ST'ing.

[Kimmi]

I don't disagree that situations like this can and do happen, but with this case, it really boils down to ERod vs Abad or ERod vs Hembree, and this is assuming no injuries and no willingness to create a phantom DL scenario for a RP'er. Again, assuming everyone is healthy and looking decent in ST'ing, is it really worth starting ERod at AAA, so we can keep the $2M Abad?

 

I just don't see it being considered, unless ERod looks shaky in ST'ing, and he's not going to start. Putting ERod in the pen makes little sense, even if he is better than ABad, but I thought this whole argument was assuming everyone was healthy and looking at least decent in ST'ing.

 

Yes, I'm assuming everyone is healthy and looks decent. I agree that it probably won't happen, especially with Buchholz gone, but it is something to consider. Dombrowski and the coaching staff would be remiss if they did not consider this option.

[Nick]

The same posters that wanted to keep Clay and his $13.5 M now wants E Rod sent to AAA to find a spot for ABad,

 

Do you ever pay attention to what DD is saying? He believes E Rod is #4. He has a chance to have Jon Lester like break out year at same point in their careers.

 

You lose credibility every time you repeat it.

 

Anyone get it that Clay's salary pays for the three recent acquisitions? Brilliant.

Edited December 23, 2016 by Nick

[yankonyankee]

 

Someone asked how they evaluate players? They overvalue them!

Merry Christmas everyone!

[moonslav59]

I wish we would just trade Abad for a Robby Scott, Josh Penningston or Victor Diaz type. We'd save $2M and keep Hembree for 3 years longer.

 

This doesn't seem to be worth the argument.

 

I jest, of course, we'll find an easy way to keep Hembree, Abad and anyone else we think is worth keeping without having to demote anyone worthy of being on the 25 man roster.

 

Injuries, creative DL scenarios or a two for one type deal are all options before needing to trade Abad for a similar relief pitcher with options.

 

[Spudboy]

A bad joke and a rip off of Cedric Maxwell. Just kidding!

 

Does Kimmi know who Cornbread is?

 

I like the Bobby Heenan quote better.

 

"Ham and egger".

[notin]

The same posters that wanted to keep Clay and his $13.5 M now wants E Rod sent to AAA to find a spot for ABad,

 

Do you ever pay attention to what DD is saying? He believes E Rod is #4. He has a chance to have Jon Lester like break out year at same point in their careers.

 

You lose credibility every time you repeat it.

 

Anyone get it that Clay's salary pays for the three recent acquisitions? Brilliant.

 

Its not like the idea is to send ERod down and bring up Brian Johnson. The rotation would have the reigning Cy Young, a former Cy Young winner, a perennial Cy Young candidate, an AL All Star from last year and an NL All Star from last year. Its a good problem to have and when you factor in that ERod has never thrown more than 145IP in a season at any level, having him step in would bot be a bad idea at all when the inevitable injuries kick in

[moonslav59]

Its not like the idea is to send ERod down and bring up Brian Johnson. The rotation would have the reigning Cy Young, a former Cy Young winner, a perennial Cy Young candidate, an AL All Star from last year and an NL All Star from last year. Its a good problem to have and when you factor in that ERod has never thrown more than 145IP in a season at any level, having him step in would bot be a bad idea at all when the inevitable injuries kick in

 

ERod pitched 170 innings in 2015, and since he has a high pitch/PA number, my guess is he has pitched to as many batters as someone with 180+ IP has.

 

I don't think he needs to be babied. He turns 24 in early April. He's pitched in professional baseball for 7 seasons and has over 800 IP.

 

I could be wrong, and if Sox management thinks he should be on an innings limit this year, then the idea of starting him in AAA and limiting his innings there would make some sense, but I think there would be ample opportunity to take him out of games early over the year to give him any rest he may need in order to still be fresh by playoff time.

 

As a side note, Pomeranz has been in professional baseball 6 years, has just over 750 IP under his belt and never pitched over 101 innings until 2016 (170.2), and he was injured in the process of reaching 170. Steven Wright has been in professional baseball for 10 years with almost 1300 IP, yet he had never pitched over 148 IP until 2016's 156.2 IP, again a year that included him getting injured along the way to 157 IP.

 

Maybe I'm over simplifying things, but ERod is younger and already has pitched a season with 170 IP- something Wright has never done in 10 seasons and Pom just barely accomplished this year.

 

I think Erod is strong enough to not be on an inning count. I may waatch his pitches per game a little closer than our big three, but no more so than for Pom, who has been a RP'er for much of his career.

[moonslav59]

The Guardians look pretty impressive. They have 12 pitchers with a projected WAR of 4 or over. (The Sox have 10.)

 

They look especially built for the playoffs. (Projected WAR)

 

SP1 4.9 Kluber

SP2 4.5 Carrasco

SP3 3.3 Salazar

 

RP2 1.2 C Allen

RP2 2.7 Miller

RP3 0.5 Otero

RP4 0.5 Cooney

RP5 0.4 B Shaw

RP6 0.4 McAllister

RP7 0.7 Clevinger

 

[notin]

ERod pitched 170 innings in 2015, and since he has a high pitch/PA number, my guess is he has pitched to as many batters as someone with 180+ IP has.

 

I don't think he needs to be babied. He turns 24 in early April. He's pitched in professional baseball for 7 seasons and has over 800 IP.

 

I could be wrong, and if Sox management thinks he should be on an innings limit this year, then the idea of starting him in AAA and limiting his innings there would make some sense, but I think there would be ample opportunity to take him out of games early over the year to give him any rest he may need in order to still be fresh by playoff time.

 

As a side note, Pomeranz has been in professional baseball 6 years, has just over 750 IP under his belt and never pitched over 101 innings until 2016 (170.2), and he was injured in the process of reaching 170. Steven Wright has been in professional baseball for 10 years with almost 1300 IP, yet he had never pitched over 148 IP until 2016's 156.2 IP, again a year that included him getting injured along the way to 157 IP.

 

Maybe I'm over simplifying things, but ERod is younger and already has pitched a season with 170 IP- something Wright has never done in 10 seasons and Pom just barely accomplished this year.

 

I think Erod is strong enough to not be on an inning count. I may waatch his pitches per game a little closer than our big three, but no more so than for Pom, who has been a RP'er for much of his career.

 

I'd like to see Pomeranz in the bullpen and Abad on another team, but that seems unlikely at least to start the season...

[Nick]

Per Boston Herald by Mastrodonato;

 

No, the Red Sox are not a better team without Clay Buchholz.

 

But just because they’re all-in on a three-year window doesn’t mean they should stop making smart business decisions.

 

Dealing Buchholz and his $13.5 million to the Phillies for minor league infielder Josh Tobias was a smart business decision by president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. And for a small loss this year, the Sox are set up to be that much better of a team in 2018 and 2019.

 

That’s why staying under the luxury tax threshold in 2017 is so important. It’s not just so billionaire principal owner John Henry can save himself a few more bucks.

 

On the field the Sox aren’t losing that much in Buchholz, save for depth at the back of their starting rotation. And with his injury history, it’s not even a slam dunk that he would be healthy by the time the Red Sox were in need.

 

So they didn’t lose a security blanket. They lost the possibility of a security blanket, a security blanket that is not guaranteed to provide any security at all.

 

Saving the money gives them a little wiggle room to make midseason acquisitions. That’s a nice bonus. Staying under the tax is what will set them up to have a productive offseason next winter, when more of Henry’s money is likely to be put to use.

 

The Red Sox have become used to freeing up sizable chunks of salary at the end of each season with expiring contracts. That won’t be the case next winter.

 

They’ll finally stop paying Allen Craig troubling sums of money and can buy him out with $1 million after paying him $11 million in 2017. Henry and Co. can exhale there, but Craig isn’t on the 40-man roster, so his salary isn’t counting against them for luxury tax purposes anyway.

 

After Craig, the Red Sox will only lose Mitch Moreland’s one-year deal at $5.5 million and Chris Young’s two-year deal at $6.5 million each.

 

What’s a team going to do with $12 million in space?

 

The luxury tax threshold will go up, but barely, slithering from $195 million to $197 million.

 

That won’t even create enough wiggle room for the Red Sox to afford the salary jumps from all their arbitration eligible players like Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts. And what about new additions to the roster?

 

Someone will underperform in 2017. Someone will get hurt. The Red Sox will have roster needs in 2018. And they will almost certainly have to go over the tax threshold to fill those needs.

 

That’s why they want so badly to stay under in 2017. If they don’t, it would be their third year of crossing the line. And under the new CBA, third-year offenders pay 50 percent tax on anything over, plus additional penalties once a team goes $20 million over, then more when a team goes $40 million over, including the stiff penalty of watching its first-round draft choice slide back 10 picks.

 

But if the Red Sox stay under the threshold in 2017? Everything resets. One year later, they can feel free to go over the luxury tax threshold to make the 2018 team great, knowing first-time offenders pay only 20 percent tax.

 

The Red Sox weren’t being cheap by trading Buchholz for an unexciting prospect. They weren’t abandoning their win-now philosophy.

 

It was just good business for a team with an enticing three-year window to make the most out of that three years at the small cost of an unreliable seventh starte

[moonslav59]

Per Boston Herald by Mastrodonato;

 

No, the Red Sox are not a better team without Clay Buchholz.

 

But just because they’re all-in on a three-year window doesn’t mean they should stop making smart business decisions.

 

Dealing Buchholz and his $13.5 million to the Phillies for minor league infielder Josh Tobias was a smart business decision by president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. And for a small loss this year, the Sox are set up to be that much better of a team in 2018 and 2019.

 

That’s why staying under the luxury tax threshold in 2017 is so important. It’s not just so billionaire principal owner John Henry can save himself a few more bucks.

 

On the field the Sox aren’t losing that much in Buchholz, save for depth at the back of their starting rotation. And with his injury history, it’s not even a slam dunk that he would be healthy by the time the Red Sox were in need.

 

So they didn’t lose a security blanket. They lost the possibility of a security blanket, a security blanket that is not guaranteed to provide any security at all.

 

Saving the money gives them a little wiggle room to make midseason acquisitions. That’s a nice bonus. Staying under the tax is what will set them up to have a productive offseason next winter, when more of Henry’s money is likely to be put to use.

 

The Red Sox have become used to freeing up sizable chunks of salary at the end of each season with expiring contracts. That won’t be the case next winter.

 

They’ll finally stop paying Allen Craig troubling sums of money and can buy him out with $1 million after paying him $11 million in 2017. Henry and Co. can exhale there, but Craig isn’t on the 40-man roster, so his salary isn’t counting against them for luxury tax purposes anyway.

 

After Craig, the Red Sox will only lose Mitch Moreland’s one-year deal at $5.5 million and Chris Young’s two-year deal at $6.5 million each.

 

What’s a team going to do with $12 million in space?

 

The luxury tax threshold will go up, but barely, slithering from $195 million to $197 million.

 

That won’t even create enough wiggle room for the Red Sox to afford the salary jumps from all their arbitration eligible players like Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts. And what about new additions to the roster?

 

Someone will underperform in 2017. Someone will get hurt. The Red Sox will have roster needs in 2018. And they will almost certainly have to go over the tax threshold to fill those needs.

 

That’s why they want so badly to stay under in 2017. If they don’t, it would be their third year of crossing the line. And under the new CBA, third-year offenders pay 50 percent tax on anything over, plus additional penalties once a team goes $20 million over, then more when a team goes $40 million over, including the stiff penalty of watching its first-round draft choice slide back 10 picks.

 

But if the Red Sox stay under the threshold in 2017? Everything resets. One year later, they can feel free to go over the luxury tax threshold to make the 2018 team great, knowing first-time offenders pay only 20 percent tax.

 

The Red Sox weren’t being cheap by trading Buchholz for an unexciting prospect. They weren’t abandoning their win-now philosophy.

 

It was just good business for a team with an enticing three-year window to make the most out of that three years at the small cost of an unreliable seventh starte

 

Pretty much what we've all been saying here for days.

 

I'd add that it gives us a lot of wiggle room for midseason acquisitions- not a little.

[Nick]

Pretty much what we've all been saying here for days.

 

I'd add that it gives us a lot of wiggle room for midseason acquisitions- not a little.

 

We could give DD some credit for playing the hand he was dealt when it comes to Pablo. Sox can't simply ignore the fact he's under contract for another 3 years. DD is showing some restraint financially by cajoling and appealing to Pablo's sense of professionalism/pride, hoping for some on the field production at 3B.

 

We can't simply piss away the money as we've often done in the past.

[Kimmi]

The same posters that wanted to keep Clay and his $13.5 M now wants E Rod sent to AAA to find a spot for ABad,

 

Do you ever pay attention to what DD is saying? He believes E Rod is #4. He has a chance to have Jon Lester like break out year at same point in their careers.

 

You lose credibility every time you repeat it.

 

Anyone get it that Clay's salary pays for the three recent acquisitions? Brilliant.

 

I get that you disagree with sending ERod down. I get that Dombrowski has stated that ERod will be the 4th starter. I agree that now that Buchholz has been traded that it's much less of an issue.

 

It still merits consideration though, and no amount of calling it a stupid idea or saying that it lacks credibility will change that.

[Nick]

I get that you disagree with sending ERod down. I get that Dombrowski has stated that ERod will be the 4th starter. I agree that now that Buchholz has been traded that it's much less of an issue.

 

It still merits consideration though, and no amount of calling it a stupid idea or saying that it lacks credibility will change that.

 

I probably should clarify.....many express their personal opinion, I get that....

 

I just wanted to point out that some opinion may seem improbable because of what DD has said.....the good news is that DD could be wrong and he'll react accordingly.....send E Rod to AAA.

 

We're all passionate about the Sox......we all want the same thing. I would have been okay with signing EE and moving on. I really thought Kopech had an upside.

[moonslav59]

I probably should clarify.....many express their personal opinion, I get that....

 

I just wanted to point out that some opinion may seem improbable because of what DD has said.....the good news is that DD could be wrong and he'll react accordingly.....send E Rod to AAA.

 

We're all passionate about the Sox......we all want the same thing. I would have been okay with signing EE and moving on. I really thought Kopech had an upside.

 

Kopech does have a lot of upside. So did Moncada.

 

I'm just so happy to have Sale. Imagaine: 3 out of 5 games, we'll have an ace on the mound!

 

I also think the odds are good that one out of ERod, Pom or Wright have a break out season in 2017. If we;re lucky, two might.

[raider_35_24]

Kopech does have a lot of upside. So did Moncada.

 

I'm just so happy to have Sale. Imagaine: 3 out of 5 games, we'll have an ace on the mound!

 

I also think the odds are good that one out of ERod, Pom or Wright have a break out season in 2017. If we;re lucky, two might.

 

yup..i'm with you..i love sale on this team...just think with our offence with sale pitching how many wins he can get...

[Nick]

Kopech does have a lot of upside. So did Moncada.

 

I'm just so happy to have Sale. Imagaine: 3 out of 5 games, we'll have an ace on the mound!

 

I also think the odds are good that one out of ERod, Pom or Wright have a break out season in 2017. If we;re lucky, two might.

 

We had 37 starts going to someone other that Price, Porcello, E Rod, Wright and Pom. Assuming Sale can pitch 32-35 of those, how can we not be better? Ultimately pitching wins. You got your wish and I'm glad.

Edited December 24, 2016 by Nick

[cp176]

I probably should clarify.....many express their personal opinion, I get that....

 

I just wanted to point out that some opinion may seem improbable because of what DD has said.....the good news is that DD could be wrong and he'll react accordingly.....send E Rod to AAA.

 

We're all passionate about the Sox......we all want the same thing. I would have been okay with signing EE and moving on. I really thought Kopech had an upside.

 

i really don't think that if E-Rod winds up in Pawtucket it will have anything at all to do with saving any kind of control over him. It could happen though. He could get get injured - he could have a very poor spring. I think that he is taking his chances pitching in the WBC and he will have to deal with what comes of it. He is a big strong kid but he does have an injury history. He also doesn't lay over the other two who will be in the hunt for the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation. It's still possible that Wright out pitches everybody we got. We don't really know what we might get from Wright or Pomeranz. It isn't unreasonable to think that if these two guys are healthy, and E-Rod pitches in the WBC that the Red Sox might just decide to slow him down.

[oldtimer]

We had 37 starts going to someone other that Price, Porcello, E Rod, Wright and Pom. Assuming Sale can pitch 32-35 of those, how can we not be better? Ultimately pitching wins. You got your wish and I'm glad.

 

 

Chaos reigns in baseball as it does in life. What could go wrong? Since we have no Ortiz we are reliant on JBJ, Leon, Bogaerts and others returning to form after a significant downturn at the end of the season. Sandoval's return is fraught with uncertainty. Injuries happen to pitching staffs every year, lets hope one of our aces doesn't go out this year. I have been an ardent fan since the late 1940's. We used to listen on the radio as we had no TV then and follow the box scores in the paper. Going to an occasional game was a real treat. I have questioned the front office moves over these many years but have learned that once the trades are made and the teams are set to accept what has been done and hope for the best.

[Bellhorn04]

Chaos reigns in baseball as it does in life. What could go wrong? Since we have no Ortiz we are reliant on JBJ, Leon, Bogaerts and others returning to form after a significant downturn at the end of the season. Sandoval's return is fraught with uncertainty. Injuries happen to pitching staffs every year, lets hope one of our aces doesn't go out this year. I have been an ardent fan since the late 1940's. We used to listen on the radio as we had no TV then and follow the box scores in the paper. Going to an occasional game was a real treat. I have questioned the front office moves over these many years but have learned that once the trades are made and the teams are set to accept what has been done and hope for the best.

 

Great post. Chaos does indeed reign.

[Kimmi]

I probably should clarify.....many express their personal opinion, I get that....

 

I just wanted to point out that some opinion may seem improbable because of what DD has said.....the good news is that DD could be wrong and he'll react accordingly.....send E Rod to AAA.

 

We're all passionate about the Sox......we all want the same thing. I would have been okay with signing EE and moving on. I really thought Kopech had an upside.

 

I understand that it is probably not likely. I think it is a lot more unlikely now that Buchholz is gone.

 

Personally, I was okay with taking the team we had at the beginning of the offseason into next season, with a few tweaks to the pen and elsewhere. I never thought that we needed to make a big move, either with the rotation or with the lineup.

[Kimmi]

Kopech does have a lot of upside. So did Moncada.

 

I'm just so happy to have Sale. Imagaine: 3 out of 5 games, we'll have an ace on the mound!

 

I also think the odds are good that one out of ERod, Pom or Wright have a break out season in 2017. If we;re lucky, two might.

 

Just to set the record straight for anyone who might think otherwise, I am thrilled to have Sale on our team. I am very excited and optimistic about this year's team. (The Guardians don't scare me!) We are an improved team over what we had last year, even with the loss of Papi.

[Kimmi]

Current Fangraphs projections for 2017 still have us as the AL favorites with 93 wins, 2 better than the Tribe at 91 wins.

 

They have us a full 10 games better than our next closest AL East competitor, the dreaded Yankees at 83 wins.

 

Before anyone gives me the "Projections don't mean anything" reply, I realize that these are to be taken with a grain of salt. I also realize that it's early and these projections will change.

 

However, at this time, we are the best AL team on paper, which is all you can ask for going into the season.

[Kimmi]

We had 37 starts going to someone other that Price, Porcello, E Rod, Wright and Pom. Assuming Sale can pitch 32-35 of those, how can we not be better? Ultimately pitching wins. You got your wish and I'm glad.

 

If our top 3 can stay healthy, our rotation will be tough to beat. Our offense was already the best in the league.

[Kimmi]

i really don't think that if E-Rod winds up in Pawtucket it will have anything at all to do with saving any kind of control over him. It could happen though. He could get get injured - he could have a very poor spring. I think that he is taking his chances pitching in the WBC and he will have to deal with what comes of it. He is a big strong kid but he does have an injury history. He also doesn't lay over the other two who will be in the hunt for the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation. It's still possible that Wright out pitches everybody we got. We don't really know what we might get from Wright or Pomeranz. It isn't unreasonable to think that if these two guys are healthy, and E-Rod pitches in the WBC that the Red Sox might just decide to slow him down.

 

It's not so much about control over ERod, though that could be part of the issue, but more about keeping control of as many quality players as possible for depth and flexibility. Again, I don't think it's a big issue now that Buchholz is gone, but $13 million salary relief aside, if I have a choice between having both Buchholz and Erod on the team with ERod starting in AAA, or losing Buchholz so that ERod does not have to be sent down, I'm going with the former.

[Kimmi]

Chaos reigns in baseball as it does in life. What could go wrong? Since we have no Ortiz we are reliant on JBJ, Leon, Bogaerts and others returning to form after a significant downturn at the end of the season. Sandoval's return is fraught with uncertainty. Injuries happen to pitching staffs every year, lets hope one of our aces doesn't go out this year. I have been an ardent fan since the late 1940's. We used to listen on the radio as we had no TV then and follow the box scores in the paper. Going to an occasional game was a real treat. I have questioned the front office moves over these many years but have learned that once the trades are made and the teams are set to accept what has been done and hope for the best.

 

Obviously we don't know how the season is going to play out, but on paper, we are a better team. If the team does not play up to expectations, we can't blame Dombrowski for that. He did his job as far as assembling a very good and improved team for this season.

 

Heaven help us all when we fall off that cliff after 3 years though.

[Kimmi]

Great post. Chaos does indeed reign.

 

Chaos reigns in baseball. I like it!

 

I've always said that randomness reigns, but chaos is even better.

[notin]

We had 37 starts going to someone other that Price, Porcello, E Rod, Wright and Pom. Assuming Sale can pitch 32-35 of those, how can we not be better? Ultimately pitching wins. You got your wish and I'm glad.

 

So Sale is going to supplement the FIVE pitchers you named? I think we can both agree it won't be a six man rotation.

 

Sale is going to replace one of those 5 and the 37 (or more) starts you mentioned will go to the 6-10 starters, who probably start with Wright, Owens and Johnson...

[Bellhorn04]

Current Fangraphs projections for 2017 still have us as the AL favorites with 93 wins, 2 better than the Tribe at 91 wins.

 

They have us a full 10 games better than our next closest AL East competitor, the dreaded Yankees at 83 wins.

 

Before anyone gives me the "Projections don't mean anything" reply, I realize that these are to be taken with a grain of salt. I also realize that it's early and these projections will change.

 

However, at this time, we are the best AL team on paper, which is all you can ask for going into the season.

 

93 wins is reasonable.

 

This indicates that FanGraphs assesses the overall strength of the 2017 team as about the same as the 2016 team.