A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[moonslav59]

The unending quest for perfection?

 

I never thought of myself as a perfectionist.

 

I don't think of myself as greedy either, but I think getting spoiled led to getting greedy.

 

H A P P Y

N E W

Y E A R !

[Kimmi]

Whether Papi got better in those situations or the pitcher got knock kneed and peed himself at the prospect of facing Papi in those circumstances is debatable, but one thing is for certain -- the advantage shifted to the batter more than it would for most other hitters.

 

Because Papi is a better hitter than most other hitters.

[Kimmi]

I never thought of myself as a perfectionist.

 

I don't think of myself as greedy either, but I think getting spoiled led to getting greedy.

 

H A P P Y

N E W

Y E A R !

 

We, as a fan base, have unfortunately become entitled.

 

Happy New Year to you and everyone here!

[a700hitter]

Because Papi is a better hitter than most other hitters.

And that gap widened in the post season.

[Bellhorn04]

That 2013 World Series for Papi really was something. He came to the plate 25 times. They got him out 6 times.

[a700hitter]

That 2013 World Series for Papi really was something. He came to the plate 25 times. They got him out 6 times.

Farrell recently talked about that performance. He said that he couldn't believe that they kept pitching to Papi, because the rest of the lineup was hitting about .150.

[notin]

That 2013 World Series for Papi really was something. He came to the plate 25 times. They got him out 6 times.

 

Interestingly, it came right after a series where he got on base on 7 times in 25 plate appearances (.280 OBP) against Detroit. Are we too believe he got that much better in one week and no randomness was involved?

[Nick]

I present one Pablo Sandoval .....He was hyped beyond his talent because of his 'success' in post season play. How has that worked

out for us?

[Emp9]

I present one Pablo Sandoval .....He was hyped beyond his talent because of his 'success' in post season play. How has that worked

out for us?

 

Thus far, not good. I wanted to see Papi and Panda together in the Post-Season, but it didn't work out that way. Panda's story isn't over yet though. I'm hoping he can redeem himself this year.

[Bellhorn04]

Interestingly, it came right after a series where he got on base on 7 times in 25 plate appearances (.280 OBP) against Detroit. Are we too believe he got that much better in one week and no randomness was involved?

 

There is no one explanation that's satisfactory. There's external randomness, there's the ups and downs of the human body and mind, there's the differences between Detroit pitchers and St. Louis pitchers and game plans etc. The correct answer would probably be 'no one knows'.

[moonslav59]

Any chance we make a play for one of these remaining FA RP'ers?

 

(from MLBTR)

 

The 36-year-old Santiago Casilla has saved 127 games, including 31 in 2016, but he racked up a major league-worst nine blown opportunities last season and, despite posting 10.09 K/9 against 2.95 BB/9, logged his highest ERA (3.57) since 2009. On the plus side, Casilla exceeded 50 innings for the seventh straight year (58), recorded a respectable ground-ball rate in line with his career average (47.6 percent compared to 48.7 percent) and didn’t experience a drop in velocity.

 

Sergio Romo, who will turn 34 in March, got better results than Casilla last year (2.64 ERA), but he only threw 30 2/3 innings and saw his velocity tumble to career lows. Despite that, Romo’s 14.9 percent swinging strike rate was in the upper echelon among relievers, as was his 13.9 percent infield fly mark (slightly better than Casilla’s 13.2). Romo also yielded the second-lowest exit velocity in the majors, per Statcast, to go with 9.68 K/9 against 2.05 BB/9. While Romo didn’t figure prominently into the ninth inning over the past couple seasons, he nonetheless has an accomplished end-of-game resume with 84 saves and 141 holds in his career.

 

No free agent has done a better job securing wins than longtime Royal Greg Holland, who has 145 saves (125 of which came from 2013-15). Holland was especially brilliant between 2011-14, a four-year period during which he combined for the majors’ fourth-best ERA (1.86) and the league’s sixth-ranked K/9 (12.57) across 256 1/3 frames. Holland then fell off in 2015 (3.83 ERA), a year in which his velocity declined and his BB/9 spiked to 5.24 (up from 3.52), thanks in part to a “significant” UCL tear. That injury led to October 2015 Tommy John surgery for Holland, who missed all of last season as a result. In spite of that, a hefty portion of the league has expressed interest in the 31-year-old this winter.

 

Like Casilla, Romo and Holland, Neftali Feliz brings vast ninth-inning experience (99 saves), though the ex-Rangers closer worked as a setup man with the Pirates last season. Along the way, Feliz accumulated 29 holds in 53 2/3 frames and registered a 3.52 ERA, 10.23 K/9 and 3.52 BB/9 to bounce back from a 2015 in which he finished with mediocre or worse numbers in those three categories (6.38 ERA, 7.31 K/9 and 3.38 BB/9). The 28-year-old did put up the second-lowest infield fly rate of his career last year (15.4), but it was still easily above the 9.9 percent league-average figure and went well with a personal-high swinging strike mark of 14.2 percent. Feliz also saw his velocity jump in 2016, which could further entice clubs searching for late-game help.

 

Contrary to the above four, Joe Blanton has never been a closer – the 36-year-old has mostly worked as a starter, in fact – but not many have been better out of the bullpen over the past couple seasons. Last year was Blanton’s first as a full-time reliever, and the then-Dodger finished sixth in innings (80) and compiled a 2.48 ERA, 9.00 K/9 and 2.93 BB/9. The slider-heavy Blanton also got swinging strikes a career-high 14.2 percent of the time (up from 13.0 in 2015), though both his 32.3 percent ground-ball rate and 5.3 percent infield pop-up mark stand out as concerns.

[harmony]

Any chance we make a play for one of these remaining FA RP'ers?

 

(from MLBTR)

 

The 36-year-old Santiago Casilla has saved 127 games, including 31 in 2016, but he racked up a major league-worst nine blown opportunities last season and, despite posting 10.09 K/9 against 2.95 BB/9, logged his highest ERA (3.57) since 2009. On the plus side, Casilla exceeded 50 innings for the seventh straight year (58), recorded a respectable ground-ball rate in line with his career average (47.6 percent compared to 48.7 percent) and didn’t experience a drop in velocity.

 

Sergio Romo, who will turn 34 in March, got better results than Casilla last year (2.64 ERA), but he only threw 30 2/3 innings and saw his velocity tumble to career lows. Despite that, Romo’s 14.9 percent swinging strike rate was in the upper echelon among relievers, as was his 13.9 percent infield fly mark (slightly better than Casilla’s 13.2). Romo also yielded the second-lowest exit velocity in the majors, per Statcast, to go with 9.68 K/9 against 2.05 BB/9. While Romo didn’t figure prominently into the ninth inning over the past couple seasons, he nonetheless has an accomplished end-of-game resume with 84 saves and 141 holds in his career.

 

No free agent has done a better job securing wins than longtime Royal Greg Holland, who has 145 saves (125 of which came from 2013-15). Holland was especially brilliant between 2011-14, a four-year period during which he combined for the majors’ fourth-best ERA (1.86) and the league’s sixth-ranked K/9 (12.57) across 256 1/3 frames. Holland then fell off in 2015 (3.83 ERA), a year in which his velocity declined and his BB/9 spiked to 5.24 (up from 3.52), thanks in part to a “significant” UCL tear. That injury led to October 2015 Tommy John surgery for Holland, who missed all of last season as a result. In spite of that, a hefty portion of the league has expressed interest in the 31-year-old this winter.

 

Like Casilla, Romo and Holland, Neftali Feliz brings vast ninth-inning experience (99 saves), though the ex-Rangers closer worked as a setup man with the Pirates last season. Along the way, Feliz accumulated 29 holds in 53 2/3 frames and registered a 3.52 ERA, 10.23 K/9 and 3.52 BB/9 to bounce back from a 2015 in which he finished with mediocre or worse numbers in those three categories (6.38 ERA, 7.31 K/9 and 3.38 BB/9). The 28-year-old did put up the second-lowest infield fly rate of his career last year (15.4), but it was still easily above the 9.9 percent league-average figure and went well with a personal-high swinging strike mark of 14.2 percent. Feliz also saw his velocity jump in 2016, which could further entice clubs searching for late-game help.

 

Contrary to the above four, Joe Blanton has never been a closer – the 36-year-old has mostly worked as a starter, in fact – but not many have been better out of the bullpen over the past couple seasons. Last year was Blanton’s first as a full-time reliever, and the then-Dodger finished sixth in innings (80) and compiled a 2.48 ERA, 9.00 K/9 and 2.93 BB/9. The slider-heavy Blanton also got swinging strikes a career-high 14.2 percent of the time (up from 13.0 in 2015), though both his 32.3 percent ground-ball rate and 5.3 percent infield pop-up mark stand out as concerns.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/poll-free-agent-relievers.html

[Nick]

"Well, I think the one thing is the roster is balanced in a lot of different areas," said Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. "I do like that. Our starting pitching is strong, and it's deep. Our bullpen has become deeper with the [Tyler] Thornburg addition and we think Joe Kelly can pitch well for us and we're in the spot where we led the league in runs scored last year.

 

Again, we should pay some attention to what DD is thinking....No freaking way he's sending Kelly down to AAA to 'stretch' him or to save a roster spot for a guy with no options remaining.

 

Does what DD says matter to any of you? He's been a straight shooter if nothing else.

[harmony]

Happy New Year!

 

May our favorite teams bring us joy (and minimal suffering) in 2017.

[notin]

I present one Pablo Sandoval .....He was hyped beyond his talent because of his 'success' in post season play. How has that worked

out for us?

 

Well he hasn't played in the post-season yet.

[notin]

"Well, I think the one thing is the roster is balanced in a lot of different areas," said Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. "I do like that. Our starting pitching is strong, and it's deep. Our bullpen has become deeper with the [Tyler] Thornburg addition and we think Joe Kelly can pitch well for us and we're in the spot where we led the league in runs scored last year.

 

Again, we should pay some attention to what DD is thinking....No freaking way he's sending Kelly down to AAA to 'stretch' him or to save a roster spot for a guy with no options remaining.

 

Does what DD says matter to any of you? He's been a straight shooter if nothing else.

 

The idea of Kelly pitching AAA originated at Soxprospects.com. While it did help find roster spots for everyone, I don't think anyone felt it was a good idea beyond the casual mention. ..

[moonslav59]

"Well, I think the one thing is the roster is balanced in a lot of different areas," said Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. "I do like that. Our starting pitching is strong, and it's deep. Our bullpen has become deeper with the [Tyler] Thornburg addition and we think Joe Kelly can pitch well for us and we're in the spot where we led the league in runs scored last year.

 

Again, we should pay some attention to what DD is thinking....No freaking way he's sending Kelly down to AAA to 'stretch' him or to save a roster spot for a guy with no options remaining.

 

Does what DD says matter to any of you? He's been a straight shooter if nothing else.

 

I too think we are much more likely to use the phantom DL to keep Abad or Hembree in our control than start Kelly in AAA at season's start.

 

I will say that DD's quotes on Kelly could be 100% truthful, but they could still begin with him at AAA, especially, if they want him to be our starter depth. Again, I think it's highly unlikely we start any of our best pitchers in AAA (like ERod or Kelly) just so we can keep Abad on board.

 

If ERod starts the season on the DL, then the roster "crunch" is settled at least until ERod and C Smith return.

 

I, for one, don't see us having a roster crunch, since I do not think Abad is worth the $2M he might get in arb this year. I'd trade him or cut him before I paid him $2M. I like Hembree, but I'd still rather sing Holland or another RP'er or swingman for $3-6M and trade Hembree.

 

[moonslav59]

More on Kelly.

 

I'm one of the few posters who liked the Lackey trade within the context of knowing he had 1 year of team control as compared to Kelly's 4 years.

 

Kelly has some nasty stuff, but he's been more inconsistent than Buch, but without the injuries to blame it on.

 

Kelly's ERA 1st half/2nd half

2012: 2.70/3.91

2013: 3.88/1.91

2014: 3.44/4.38

2015: 5.67/3.77

2016: 8.46/1.02

 

Kelly's monthly ERAs

2012: 3.38/2.67/4.70/3.28

2013: 8.31/5.40/0.96/2.55/2.08/2.10 (a great June>Oct-15 GS'd)

2014: 0.59/7.32/3.86/4.32

2015: 4.94/6.53/5.23/8.32/2.68/3.86

(Going 8-0 in his last 9 GS'd caused him to win a spot in the 2016 April rotation, but he was horrible for the first 4 months. Kinda the same for 2016.)

2016: 9.35/3.97/27.00/2.45/0.64

 

I still like Kelly a lot, but the guy is very unpredictable. There's no way I see him as having a lock on anything to start 2017. I do see him as having a good chance to be our 7th inning/occasional 8th inning set-up man, and I wouldn't argue with anyone who has him as our number 3 or 4 RP'er behind Kimbrel, Thornburg and maybe Ross at this moment (assuming Smith starts on the DL), but I would not be shocked, if he struggles in ST'ing and begins the year at AAA.

 

This fact highlights my concern over our pen. The arguing over Abad, Hembree, Barnes, and to some extent Kelly and Ross is a debate over near replacement level pitchers. In many ways one could argue it doesn't matter much who we start out with on opening day. It's one reason I was so strongly against the notion of starting a healthy ERod in AAA. To me, Pom or Wright in the pen is a huge upgrade over any of our bottom feeders.

 

Edited January 1, 2017 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

The Lackey trade ended up being bad for us, but I still contend that at the time, it was a good trade for us.

[Bellhorn04]

Trading Lackey straight up for Kelly wouldn't have been so bad.

[Nick]

More on Kelly.

 

I'm one of the few posters who liked the Lackey trade within the context of knowing he had 1 year of team control as compared to Kelly's 4 years.

 

Kelly has some nasty stuff, but he's been more inconsistent than Buch, but without the injuries to blame it on.

 

Kelly's ERA 1st half/2nd half

2012: 2.70/3.91

2013: 3.88/1.91

2014: 3.44/4.38

2015: 5.67/3.77

2016: 8.46/1.02

 

Kelly's monthly ERAs

2012: 3.38/2.67/4.70/3.28

2013: 8.31/5.40/0.96/2.55/2.08/2.10 (a great June>Oct-15 GS'd)

2014: 0.59/7.32/3.86/4.32

2015: 4.94/6.53/5.23/8.32/2.68/3.86

(Going 8-0 in his last 9 GS'd caused him to win a spot in the 2016 April rotation, but he was horrible for the first 4 months. Kinda the same for 2016.)

2016: 9.35/3.97/27.00/2.45/0.64

 

I still like Kelly a lot, but the guy is very unpredictable. There's no way I see him as having a lock on anything to start 2017. I do see him as having a good chance to be our 7th inning/occasional 8th inning set-up man, and I wouldn't argue with anyone who has him as our number 3 or 4 RP'er behind Kimbrel, Thornburg and maybe Ross at this moment (assuming Smith starts on the DL), but I would not be shocked, if he struggles in ST'ing and begins the year at AAA.

 

This fact highlights my concern over our pen. The arguing over Abad, Hembree, Barnes, and to some extent Kelly and Ross is a debate over near replacement level pitchers. In many ways one could argue it doesn't matter much who we start out with on opening day. It's one reason I was so strongly against the notion of starting a healthy ERod in AAA. To me, Pom or Wright in the pen is a huge upgrade over any of our bottom feeders.

 

 

Well DD is bit more optimistic than you....but what's he going to say? Our bullpen SUCKS!

[moonslav59]

Well DD is bit more optimistic than you....but what's he going to say? Our bullpen SUCKS!

 

Yes, and I bet you can find some flowery quotes on Ross, Barnes, Scott, Hembree and Abad, but not all of these guys can be on the 25 man roster on opening day.

 

No good GM is going to say something bad about a player of his this time of year.

 

He wants every player thinking positively about his chances next year.

 

BTW, I'm very optimistic about Kelly and always have been, perhaps too much so.

 

I'd put him ahead of Ross right now as our number 3, which might be more than many here would do, but I don't see him as a lock for being on the 25 man roster opening day, especially if Wright is in the pen. Currently, this is how I rank our pen:

 

1 Kimbrel

2 Thornburg

3 (C Smith)

3A Wright

4A Kelly

5A Ross

6A Barnes

7A Hembree

8A Abad (phantom DL or traded or DFA'd)

9A Scott

10A Workman/Elias/Ysla/Martin/Owens or Johnson

 

 

Edited January 1, 2017 by moonslav59

[notin]

Still like the idea of Pomeranz in the pen, especially over Wright.

 

But then we'd really need a starter.

[notin]

There is no one explanation that's satisfactory. There's external randomness, there's the ups and downs of the human body and mind, there's the differences between Detroit pitchers and St. Louis pitchers and game plans etc. The correct answer would probably be 'no one knows'.

 

I have to wonder at some point how the anti-randomness people are defining "randomness"...

[moonslav59]

Still like the idea of Pomeranz in the pen, especially over Wright.

 

Totally agree.

 

But then we'd really need a starter.

 

Assuming ERod is out.

 

We'll probably sign a couple vets to minor league deals.

[Bellhorn04]

I have to wonder at some point how the anti-randomness people are defining "randomness"...

 

I'd also like to know how the pro-randomness people define randomness.

[notin]

I'd also like to know how the pro-randomness people define randomness.

 

Fair question.

 

To me it would be excessive successes beyond what the batter can control. I wouldn't consider home runs random. But far greater success on groundballs and flyballs.

 

Basically if a hitter's BABIP greatly exceeds his xBABIP, I would consider that a product of randomness.

 

Ok. Your turn...

[Bellhorn04]

Fair question.

 

To me it would be excessive successes beyond what the batter can control. I wouldn't consider home runs random. But far greater success on groundballs and flyballs.

 

Basically if a hitter's BABIP greatly exceeds his xBABIP, I would consider that a product of randomness.

 

Ok. Your turn...

 

To me the term randomness should be confined to pure luck and eliminate all the human factors.

 

My whole contention is that the human factors are also there. Guys feel better and perform better at different times, as a result of physiological factors and mechanical factors. I don't see how that can be denied.

[Emp9]

Any chance we make a play for one of these remaining FA RP'ers?

 

(from MLBTR)

 

The 36-year-old Santiago Casilla has saved 127 games, including 31 in 2016, but he racked up a major league-worst nine blown opportunities last season and, despite posting 10.09 K/9 against 2.95 BB/9, logged his highest ERA (3.57) since 2009. On the plus side, Casilla exceeded 50 innings for the seventh straight year (58), recorded a respectable ground-ball rate in line with his career average (47.6 percent compared to 48.7 percent) and didn’t experience a drop in velocity.

 

Sergio Romo, who will turn 34 in March, got better results than Casilla last year (2.64 ERA), but he only threw 30 2/3 innings and saw his velocity tumble to career lows. Despite that, Romo’s 14.9 percent swinging strike rate was in the upper echelon among relievers, as was his 13.9 percent infield fly mark (slightly better than Casilla’s 13.2). Romo also yielded the second-lowest exit velocity in the majors, per Statcast, to go with 9.68 K/9 against 2.05 BB/9. While Romo didn’t figure prominently into the ninth inning over the past couple seasons, he nonetheless has an accomplished end-of-game resume with 84 saves and 141 holds in his career.

 

No free agent has done a better job securing wins than longtime Royal Greg Holland, who has 145 saves (125 of which came from 2013-15). Holland was especially brilliant between 2011-14, a four-year period during which he combined for the majors’ fourth-best ERA (1.86) and the league’s sixth-ranked K/9 (12.57) across 256 1/3 frames. Holland then fell off in 2015 (3.83 ERA), a year in which his velocity declined and his BB/9 spiked to 5.24 (up from 3.52), thanks in part to a “significant” UCL tear. That injury led to October 2015 Tommy John surgery for Holland, who missed all of last season as a result. In spite of that, a hefty portion of the league has expressed interest in the 31-year-old this winter.

 

Like Casilla, Romo and Holland, Neftali Feliz brings vast ninth-inning experience (99 saves), though the ex-Rangers closer worked as a setup man with the Pirates last season. Along the way, Feliz accumulated 29 holds in 53 2/3 frames and registered a 3.52 ERA, 10.23 K/9 and 3.52 BB/9 to bounce back from a 2015 in which he finished with mediocre or worse numbers in those three categories (6.38 ERA, 7.31 K/9 and 3.38 BB/9). The 28-year-old did put up the second-lowest infield fly rate of his career last year (15.4), but it was still easily above the 9.9 percent league-average figure and went well with a personal-high swinging strike mark of 14.2 percent. Feliz also saw his velocity jump in 2016, which could further entice clubs searching for late-game help.

 

Contrary to the above four, Joe Blanton has never been a closer – the 36-year-old has mostly worked as a starter, in fact – but not many have been better out of the bullpen over the past couple seasons. Last year was Blanton’s first as a full-time reliever, and the then-Dodger finished sixth in innings (80) and compiled a 2.48 ERA, 9.00 K/9 and 2.93 BB/9. The slider-heavy Blanton also got swinging strikes a career-high 14.2 percent of the time (up from 13.0 in 2015), though both his 32.3 percent ground-ball rate and 5.3 percent infield pop-up mark stand out as concerns.

 

I know there's a chance waiting may cost more as far as what we give to make a trade happen at the deadline. But it might be smart to consider one of these guys. Blanton might be good 5th SP insurance and he's a RHP. Holland might be worth a look. Most of these guys splits vs the ALE (or the Guardians or the Rangers) are very SSS it's hard to get a good read on them. If it doesn't stop us from a trade deadline acquisition I might be up for it. Still think waiting until mid-season when we can more accurately identify a need would be the best route to take.

[notin]

To me the term randomness should be confined to pure luck and eliminate all the human factors.

 

My whole contention is that the human factors are also there. Guys feel better and perform better at different times, as a result of physiological factors and mechanical factors. I don't see how that can be denied.

 

Absolutely true. Just like I don't feel exactly the same every day, I don't see how athletes can't wake up with a sore ankle or a headache and we expect it to NOT be a factor in hitting a 95mph fastball. It's just a headache, right?

 

We're close to the same page with our defonitions. I have a way of measuring that luck, which may or may not be accurate. But to me, hard work and increased skill still only allows for success with certain parameters. Which is why I think Sandy Leon was very lucky last year and not likely to repeat...