A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Hugh2]

Just because we reset the rate for 2018 doesn't mean we'll be able to spend like drunken sailors though, right? The penalties will still be a deterrent to exceeding the threshold by a significant amount - plus if you sign some big contracts it'll be hard to get back under again.

 

The penalties aren't harsh for first time offenders and those who only go over the limit by a little. The Sox don't mind going over the limit but living their is obviously another story.

 

If they reset and go back over they don't have to live there because they've bridged the gap until guys like Hanley, and Pablo come off the books.

[Hugh2]

To continue my point they can use that reset to go nuts on another top notch free agent or start extending some of their own guys

[Hugh2]

Ten bounce back pitchers still on the market:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/10-bounceback-pitcher-candidates-still-available-in-free-agency.html

 

 

If any of these guys would sign a milb deal, or a deal with an opt out it can never hurt to bring in arms during spring training.

[moonslav59]

Just because we reset the rate for 2018 doesn't mean we'll be able to spend like drunken sailors though, right? The penalties will still be a deterrent to exceeding the threshold by a significant amount - plus if you sign some big contracts it'll be hard to get back under again.

 

True, but resetting this winter is easier than I the next few

[Kimmi]

IMO the LT priority might change if the team is in solid contention at the deadline. I can foresee a scenario where there's a need for a rental player at the deadline whose salary would put us over the cap. What I can't see is JH/DD passing on a player who might put the team over the top even if it meant slightly exceeding the LT ceiling. You strike while the iron is hot.

 

"Don't save a pitcher for tomorrow. It might rain tomorrow". - Leo Durocher

 

I agree with this. I think the FO will do everything they reasonably can do to stay under the cap this year, but if we're in need of a player midseason, I can't see them throwing away everything they've done in this win now mode just to stay under.

[Kimmi]

 

I think 98 wins is pretty accurate. It would probably have been 103 had Papi not retired.

 

I think on paper, it seems pretty accurate. In reality, I think it's very difficult to win close to 100 games, not that it can't happen.

[moonslav59]

If any of these guys would sign a milb deal, or a deal with an opt out it can never hurt to bring in arms during spring training.

 

If we could trade Abad (saving $2M) and get Holland at a reasonable rate, we'd be taking a risk, but we'd have an upside that could be enormous.

 

I'm not saying I want to do it, but something like this could be worth it, if we'd still leave some wiggle room for the deadline.

[moonslav59]

I agree with this. I think the FO will do everything they reasonably can do to stay under the cap this year, but if we're in need of a player midseason, I can't see them throwing away everything they've done in this win now mode just to stay under.

 

With close to $10M to spend, we could get some top talent at the deadline and still stay under. Only a third of the player's salary would be charged to us.

[Bellhorn04]

With close to $10M to spend, we could get some top talent at the deadline and still stay under. Only a third of the player's salary would be charged to us.

 

That's the good part. The bad part is, to get top talent we'd likely have to give up yet another prospect or two.

[moonslav59]

That's the good part. The bad part is, to get top talent we'd likely have to give up yet another prospect or two.

 

True enough, but I'm hoping we won't be needing top talent... maybe just a de Aza, Ziegler or Leon type that cost us very little.

 

I mention the money, because picking up a so-so player with $5M remaining on his last year of his contract may not cost us top prospects, and we can get two guys like that and still stay under the limit.

[moonslav59]

Here's how I see our positional depth chart right now:

 

C Leon, Vazquez, Swihart (AAA), Butler (AAA)

1B Ramirez (DH)- Moreland, Travis (AAA), Holt, Craig (AAA non 40 man)

2B Pedroia, Holt, Hernandez (AAA), Rutledge, Marrero (AAA)

3B Sandoval, Rutledge, Holt, Hernandez (AAA), Domingues (AAA)

SS Bogaerts, Hernandez (AAA), Holt, Marrero (AAA)

LF Benintendi, Young, Holt, Moreland, Swihart (AAA)

CF Bradley, Benintendi, Betts, Young, Holt, Castillo (AAA non 40 man)

RF Betts, Bradley, Young, Holt, Moreland

(assuming Brentz is not on the 40 man roster by opening day)

DH HanRam-Young, Swihart (AAA), Witte (AAA non 40 man)

 

SP Sale, Porcello, Price, Rodriguez, Pomeranz, Wright, Kelly, AAA: Elias, Johnson & Owens

RP Kimbrel, C Smith (DL), Thornburg, Wright, Kelly, Ross, Hembree, Abad (DFA/DL?), AAA: Scott, Elias, Workman, Martin, N Ramirez, Ysla, (Owens/Johnson)

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Great article on the value of pitch framing:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-bad-could-a-pitch-framer-possibly-be/

 

Another view:

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/pitch-framing-was-doomed-from-the-start/

Edited December 30, 2016 by moonslav59

[Beantowne]

Great article on the value of pitch framing:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-bad-could-a-pitch-framer-possibly-be/

 

Another view:

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/pitch-framing-was-doomed-from-the-start/

 

interesting read might be a great topic for a thread by itself..

 

it's articles like this that only serves to bolster those that place a higher value on defensive skills behind the plate. It's no secret that how a catcher receives the ball greatly influences how blue sees the pitch, especially the low strikes.

 

Wonder what it would look like if they used the same data to evaluate the home plate umpires strike frequency by pitch location.

[mvp 78]

If CV was as good behind the plate as we hoped he'd be, I don't think there'd be much discussion on who the starting C would be. Right now though, his defense has taken a step back AND he can't really hit. He has a long way to go before he can be a premier C.

[S5Dewey]

If CV was as good behind the plate as we hoped he'd be, I don't think there'd be much discussion on who the starting C would be. Right now though, his defense has taken a step back AND he can't really hit. He has a long way to go before he can be a premier C.

 

Agreed, if one considers Vaz TJ surgery a step back - which I don't. And we don't have anyone who's going to be a premiere catcher going into 2017, which is why Vaz and Leon are projected to be our #1 & #2.

[Kimmi]

If CV was as good behind the plate as we hoped he'd be, I don't think there'd be much discussion on who the starting C would be. Right now though, his defense has taken a step back AND he can't really hit. He has a long way to go before he can be a premier C.

 

Vaz was that good in the minors, and he was that good for us in his short stint in 2014.

 

IMO, he was rushed back last season. Even with that, he was still pretty good defensively, just not elite. I am hoping that his step back was due to the injury, and than he can recapture his elite status defensively.

[S5Dewey]

Vaz was that good in the minors, and he was that good for us in his short stint in 2014.

 

IMO, he was rushed back last season. Even with that, he was still pretty good defensively, just not elite. I am hoping that his step back was due to the injury, and than he can recapture his elite status defensively.

 

Yes, this! IMO Vaz has a bigger defensive upside than anyone in the organization and many GM's value defense more than offense in a catcher.

[mvp 78]

Vaz was that good in the minors, and he was that good for us in his short stint in 2014.

 

IMO, he was rushed back last season. Even with that, he was still pretty good defensively, just not elite. I am hoping that his step back was due to the injury, and than he can recapture his elite status defensively.

 

I think you're being too charitable to CV. He was a worse pitch framer than Evan Gattis last year and had a lower CS%. Sandy Leon had a better DWAR even when factoring in the additional games and also had a lower CS%. Sandy's CERA was also .40 less when receiving the same pitchers as CV.

[mvp 78]

Yes, this! IMO Vaz has a bigger defensive upside than anyone in the organization and many GM's value defense more than offense in a catcher.

 

Sure he has the upside, but he needs to show it for it to be real.

[Kimmi]

Yes, this! IMO Vaz has a bigger defensive upside than anyone in the organization and many GM's value defense more than offense in a catcher.

 

Of all the positions, catcher is the one that should be the most defensive oriented. I remember having arguments with posters about Varitek when he became a black hole offensively. I didn't care. I still wanted him behind the plate.

 

It's the same way I feel about Vazquez behind the plate. I don't care if he's a light hitter, if he provides that elite defense. The rest of our line up should be able to cover him in the 9 hole.

 

That said, it does come down to which catcher provides the best overall value. Therefore, if Swihart improves his defense enough to where that, coupled with his offense, makes him the better overall catcher, I think we have to go with Swihart, as much as it would pain me to lose the elite defense.

 

That said, if their value turns out to be fairly equal, I'm going with the elite defender every time.

[Kimmi]

I think you're being too charitable to CV. He was a worse pitch framer than Evan Gattis last year and had a lower CS%. Sandy Leon had a better DWAR even when factoring in the additional games and also had a lower CS%. Sandy's CERA was also .40 less when receiving the same pitchers as CV.

 

Not knocking Leon's defense at all. I've been a fan of his since we signed him, even before he started hitting last year.

[S5Dewey]

Of all the positions, catcher is the one that should be the most defensive oriented. I remember having arguments with posters about Varitek when he became a black hole offensively. I didn't care. I still wanted him behind the plate.

 

It's the same way I feel about Vazquez behind the plate. I don't care if he's a light hitter, if he provides that elite defense. The rest of our line up should be able to cover him in the 9 hole.

 

That said, it does come down to which catcher provides the best overall value. Therefore, if Swihart improves his defense enough to where that, coupled with his offense, makes him the better overall catcher, I think we have to go with Swihart, as much as it would pain me to lose the elite defense.

 

That said, if their value turns out to be fairly equal, I'm going with the elite defender every time.

 

And there will always be a debate about who is the best overall player, depending on whether a person prefers offense or defense. We've already been down that road with the debate about JBJ and asking whether his GG defense makes him worth having on the team if he hits <.250.>

[a700hitter]

The only thing about Leon's defense that concerns me is that he seems to have a great deal of difficulty handling Kimbrel. He looks overpowered by him.

[Spudboy]

The only thing about Leon's defense that concerns me is that he seems to have a great deal of difficulty handling Kimbrel. He looks overpowered by him.

 

Is that because of Kimbrel's wildness?

 

That does worry me.

[a700hitter]

Is that because of Kimbrel's wildness?

 

That does worry me.

His breaking stuff moves so much and with different amount of break it just seems to handcuff him.

[mvp 78]

Is that because of Kimbrel's wildness?

 

That does worry me.

 

Is Kimbrel's wildness because of Leon's difficulty catching the heat or is Leon's difficulty catching the heat due to Kimbrel's wildness?

[moonslav59]

I think you're being too charitable to CV. He was a worse pitch framer than Evan Gattis last year and had a lower CS%. Sandy Leon had a better DWAR even when factoring in the additional games and also had a lower CS%. Sandy's CERA was also .40 less when receiving the same pitchers as CV.

 

The sample sizes are really too small to make any definitive judgment on CV's 2016 defense.

 

On CERA, almost every pitcher has vastly different sample sizes with any specific Sox catcher. I provided the CERA numbers pitcher-by-pitcher below, but please note some of the vert tiny sample sizes. Here are a few things I noticed:

 

Out of our top 6 IP pitchers (starters for the most part):

Leon had a better CERA than Vaz with 3 (Price, Porcello & Buch).

Vaz had a better CERA than Leon with 2 (Wright and ERod).

It may not be a fluke that Vaz had caught both of these guys in the minors.

 

When looking at the other 5 pitchers (RP'ers) with over 48 IP, we see a much different result. (Note: the sample sizes are even tinier here.)

Leon had a better CERA with only 1 RP'er (Ross with an IP difference of 27 to 7)

Vaz had a better CERA with the 4 others (Barnes, Kimbrel, Hembree & Tazawa- all with both pitchers having a sample size of 15 to 25 IP)

(Note: Leon did better with Uehara and Kelly, but his IP with Kelly was just in 7 IP, and neither had over 18 IP with Uehara.)

 

If we use these numbers to allign the best catcher with our starters next year, we might want to use Vaz as Wright's "caddy" and possibly with ERod and/or Pom.

 

Here are the 2016 CERA numbers I compiled:

 

L=Leon

V=Vazquez

Ha=Hanigan

Ho=Holladay

S=Swihart

 

(I bolded the leader(s), if the sample size is large enough to be top 2)

 

Price: L 3.23-109/ V 4.62-97/ Ho 4.15-13/ S 5.73-11

Porc: L 2.52-107/ V 3.64-94/ Ha 3.45-16/ S 6.00-6

DWri: L 6.46-24/ V 2.72-36/ Ha 2.90-90/ S 1.35-7

Buch: L 3.84-61/ V 5.60-53/ Ha 3.24-8/Ho 2.25-8/S 10.00-9

ERod: L 4.90-79/ V 4.50-22/Ha 3.00-6

DPom: L 5.85-20/ V 0-0/ Ha 7.88-8/ Ho 3.32-41 (Norris 1.56-81/Bet 6.00-21)

Barnes: 6.04-25/ V 1.37-20/ Ha 5.17-16/ Ho 0.00-5/ S 3.38-3

Ross: L 1.65-27/ V 12.86-7/ Ha 1.98-14/ Ho 0.00-3/S 5.79-5

Kimb: L 3.20-20/ V 2.04-18/Ha 1.74-10/ Ho 10.80-3/ S 13.50-2

Hemb: L 3.18-17/ V 2.08-17/Ha 1.98-14/Ho 3.00-3

Taza: L 4.24-17/ V 4.11-15/ Ha 1.38-13/ Ho 18.00-2/ S 3.86-2

Ueh: L 3.44-18/ V 5.94-17/ Ha 0.00-8/Ho 0.00-1/ S 0.00-3

Kelly: L 1.35-7/ V 4.50-10/ Ha 6.97-21/ Ho 3.38-3

[mvp 78]

I made a definitive judgement about his 2016 performance. It was not very good. I didn't make any judgements about his future performance aside from saying he needs to be better.

 

His defense wasn't great. Plain and simple. I provided statstical analysis to back up my feelings.

[mvp 78]

You can make definitive judgements on past performance as that book is closed.

 

If a guy goes 0-25 in the World Series, you can't say "well we don't definitively know how his WS was." Yes, we do. It sucked.

[S5Dewey]

You can make definitive judgements on past performance as that book is closed.

 

If a guy goes 0-25 in the World Series, you can't say "well we don't definitively know how his WS was." Yes, we do. It sucked.

 

But it doesn't mean anything because it's too small a sample size.