A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[moonslav59]

Update on Marco Hernandez...

 

It was a solid week for Marco Hernandez (pictured), who went 5 for 19 with a triple and a home run. He now has three home runs in his last eight games.

[southpaw777]

I'm just glad you're not managing the Sox. You really don't have a clue how E Rod is valued by DD, do you? Send him back to minors? For what? Why not send back Beni so we can keep him under team control little longer.

 

DD told John to play the best 3B and not worry about the contracts. E Rod belongs in Sox rotation.

 

1000% agree...to store him in AAA just because he has options is just plain stupid IMHO. Sure, its an option...but a really dumb one.

[southpaw777]

What about Stoli (My fave, but I admit I am a novice compared to you) Vanil & Fanta Orange for an orange creamsicle.

 

that would also be vodka whipped cream flavor, grand marnier and OJ...tastes EXACTLY like orange cream...

[Emp9]

If it's Moreland's $5.5M that keeps us from signing one of these "left out" sluggers (EE, Bautista or Trumbo), there's going to have to be some "splaining" to be done!

 

That's why I'm not a huge fan of 3 moves in the same 24 hour period (Ben did this once too). Make a move or two, but fcs relax, breathe. It's a long winter.

[Bellhorn04]

Moreland was a solid signing, just not a sexually arousing one. I guarantee one thing, that signing won't be the deciding factor on whether they sign one of the boppers or not.

[notin]

Moreland was a solid signing, just not a sexually arousing one. I guarantee one thing, that signing won't be the deciding factor on whether they sign one of the boppers or not.

 

Moreland's signing made it obvious that there was a goal of staying under tha tax limit. No one including Mitch Moreland himself believes he is equal to or better than Encarnacion, but it was a one year deal gor a cheap price. While not the guy I would have gone after to accomplish this, I can't sit here and make definitive arguments for the merits of Brandon Moss over Moreland. But I can definitively say Moreland is cheaper than Encarnacion and that was a major factor. ...

[moonslav59]

That's why I'm not a huge fan of 3 moves in the same 24 hour period (Ben did this once too). Make a move or two, but fcs relax, breathe. It's a long winter.

 

It's hard to imagine Moreland ready to sign elsewhere and DD needing to act quickly or lose him.

 

I do think Moreland is a better choice than all the others mentioned (B Moss, A Lind, Morrison...). I think DD is just plain not interested in EE. Maybe his age. Maybe it's the 3+ years demand. Maybe, even if his price comes way down, DD wanted a guy that can play excellent 1B defense.

[Bellhorn04]

It's hard to imagine Moreland ready to sign elsewhere and DD needing to act quickly or lose him.

 

I do think Moreland is a better choice than all the others mentioned (B Moss, A Lind, Morrison...). I think DD is just plain not interested in EE. Maybe his age. Maybe it's the 3+ years demand. Maybe, even if his price comes way down, DD wanted a guy that can play excellent 1B defense.

 

I think the real question is whether JH is willing to pay the price and suffer the future tax ramifications for signing EE. It would appear that up till now he has not been. But who knows if EE's price really drops.

[mvp 78]

I think the real question is whether JH is willing to pay the price and suffer the future tax ramifications for signing EE. It would appear that up till now he has not been. But who knows if EE's price really drops.

 

Hanley has shown that he can play 1b, so he could probably be moved in a trade to help reduce that tax burden. It seems that they just never really considered EE this offseason.

[Bellhorn04]

Hanley has shown that he can play 1b, so he could probably be moved in a trade to help reduce that tax burden. It seems that they just never really considered EE this offseason.

 

That's certainly possible. Ain't over yet, though.

[a700hitter]

I think the real question is whether JH is willing to pay the price and suffer the future tax ramifications for signing EE. It would appear that up till now he has not been. But who knows if EE's price really drops.

Or if he can't get 3 years.

[moonslav59]

I think the real question is whether JH is willing to pay the price and suffer the future tax ramifications for signing EE. It would appear that up till now he has not been. But who knows if EE's price really drops.

 

To me, the only debate that might happen is if EE ends up signing for $16M a year or less.

 

$13.5M Buch + $5.,5M Moreland = $19M. Figuring we need at least $2-4M for wiggle room to stay under the limit, that would have left about $15-17M to sign EE or Bautista.

 

Then, there's still next year to worry about as these guys get older.

 

I just don't think DD has ever been seriously interested in EE. The only way this debate should be open, is if EE's contract cost and/or years comes in way below what DD expected.

 

[moonslav59]

The biggest factor against signing EE is that if we reset the tax his year, we can afford to go over next year in a better market. We'll also have a better idea of where our biggest need is. We'll know more about 3B (Panda & Devers). We'll know more about 1B/DH (HanRam & Travis). We'll know more about Beni & JBJ and our 3 catchers. We'll know more about our starter depth and bullpen.

 

We'll be looking at these avalaible free agents:

 

1B: Eric Hosmer & Carlos Santana

3B: Moustakas & Frazier

C: Lucroy

OF/DH: JD Martinez, J Bruce & C Young

SP: Arrietta, Darvish, A Cobb, G Gonzalez, M Moore & others

RP:Clippard, W Davis, B Shaw, KRod & others

 

 

[moonslav59]

If we assume Pablo does well this year, I find it hard to believe he can or will ever be acceptable vs LHPs. Here are his numbers vs lefties:

 

2012: .745 (137 PAs)

2013: .686 (167)

2014: .563 (205)

2015: .465 (155)

 

This is extremely disturbing. Out of 82 MLB players with over 600 PAs vs LHPs in this period, Pablo placed 82nd at .608. The next guy was about 40 points behind!

 

It looks even worse from 2013-2015: out of 71 hitters with 450 PAs vs LHPs, Pablo placed 71st with a .572 OPS. The next worst hitter was 60 points higher (Mike Aviles at .632).

 

Now, we might look at Holt and Hernandez and see that both are lefties, so no platoon would look practical, but if we look at Holt's career splits, we'd see he actually hits lefties slightly better than righties:

 

Holt:

v RHPs .272/.329/.375/.704

v LHPs .272/.342/.367/.709

(very close, but the OBP is significantly better (+13 pts)

 

Hernandez:

v RHPs: .668 (47 PAs)

v LHPs: 1.056 (just 9 PAs)

AAA

v RHPs: 809 (2016)/.709 (2015)

v LHPs .736 (2016)/.710 (2015)

AA

v RHPs: .877

v LHPs: .731

 

Matt Dominguez (RH'd hitter)

v RHPs: .641 (981 PAs)

v LHPs: .653 (388 PAs)

 

All three of these guys look to be better 3B options vs LHPs than Pablo.

 

 

[mvp 78]

I really can't gauge Hernandez after 9 PAs.

[moonslav59]

I really can't gauge Hernandez after 9 PAs.

 

True, but his minor league numbers are way ahead of Pablo's 3 year numbers. I'd let Pablo start off full time, but if he struggles vs LHPs, like I think he will, I'd use Holt as a platoon pretty quickly. The only way Hernandez or Dominguez get involved is if there is an injury or Holt sucks.

[cp176]

I've liked Hernandez since his Portland days. Sooner or later I think that he gets his opportunity either with us or with someone else. I just don't see him at third base. ss/2nd - or just as a utility guy for us. The only real difference I see between Holt and Hernandez is that Holt gets some outfield looks. I would like to see Hernandez get some regular playing time just to see what he can do. I think that he could surprise a lot of people.

[Kimmi]

1000% agree...to store him in AAA just because he has options is just plain stupid IMHO. Sure, its an option...but a really dumb one.

 

No, it's really not stupid at all. If he were our ace, then sending him to AAA just because he has options would be stupid. But we are currently looking at him to fill a #4 or 5 slot in our rotation, which Pomeranz or Wright (or Buchholz until he was traded) could have filled just as productively.

 

If you risk losing a player that might really help the team, then you send the guy with options down, at least for a while.

 

All that said, trading Buchholz alleviates some of the backlog of pitching roster spots, so there is less of a need to send ERod down.

[moonslav59]

I've liked Hernandez since his Portland days. Sooner or later I think that he gets his opportunity either with us or with someone else. I just don't see him at third base. ss/2nd - or just as a utility guy for us. The only real difference I see between Holt and Hernandez is that Holt gets some outfield looks. I would like to see Hernandez get some regular playing time just to see what he can do. I think that he could surprise a lot of people.

 

I've always been high on Hernandez. I even went so far as to suggest trading Holt, so Hernandez could play more. Maybe Swihart would be the 5th OF'er, but there's a lot of push back on that idea, understandably so.

[moonslav59]

No, it's really not stupid at all. If he were our ace, then sending him to AAA just because he has options would be stupid. But we are currently looking at him to fill a #4 or 5 slot in our rotation, which Pomeranz or Wright (or Buchholz until he was traded) could have filled just as productively.

 

If you risk losing a player that might really help the team, then you send the guy with options down, at least for a while.

 

All that said, trading Buchholz alleviates some of the backlog of pitching roster spots, so there is less of a need to send ERod down.

 

The guys we risk losing are 1 or possibly two from these out of options pitchers: Abad, Hembree & Elias.

 

I'd rather put Barnes or Ross in AAA, if we really felt we needed to keep all three of them. Even Kelly has an option left and might be a better choice than ERod.

 

Kimbrel & Thornburg are locks, if healthy.

 

Kelly & Ross are probably the next tier with Barnes close behind.

 

Even assuming those 5 are in, we could probably have Pom in the pen, pick one of those three for the 7th slot and then get creative with the DL on the others.

 

This is assuming everyone is healthy, which is not likely.

 

If we have to trade Abad and/or Elias, I'm not going to lose any sleep.

[notin]

The guys we risk losing are 1 or possibly two from these out of options pitchers: Abad, Hembree & Elias.

 

I'd rather put Barnes or Ross in AAA, if we really felt we needed to keep all three of them. Even Kelly has an option left and might be a better choice than ERod.

 

Kimbrel & Thornburg are locks, if healthy.

 

Kelly & Ross are probably the next tier with Barnes close behind.

 

Even assuming those 5 are in, we could probably have Pom in the pen, pick one of those three for the 7th slot and then get creative with the DL on the others.

 

This is assuming everyone is healthy, which is not likely.

 

If we have to trade Abad and/or Elias, I'm not going to lose any sleep.

 

According to Soxprospects.com, Elias has onr option remaining.

 

That website is not affiliated with the Sox, but their projected roster has Abad, Ross, and Hembree in Boston and Kelly and Elias starting in Pawtucket.

 

Personally I like Kelly better as a key reliever than a depth starter and its possible Soxprospects is just trying to make all the pieces fit, but that alignment is possible

[S5Dewey]

According to Soxprospects.com, Elias has onr option remaining.

 

That website is not affiliated with the Sox, but their projected roster has Abad, Ross, and Hembree in Boston and Kelly and Elias starting in Pawtucket.

 

Personally I like Kelly better as a key reliever than a depth starter and its possible Soxprospects is just trying to make all the pieces fit, but that alignment is possible

 

I see Kelly as the 7th inning guy in the best case scenario, but he'd also make a good swingman IF he can get his control together.

[moonslav59]

According to Soxprospects.com, Elias has onr option remaining.

 

That website is not affiliated with the Sox, but their projected roster has Abad, Ross, and Hembree in Boston and Kelly and Elias starting in Pawtucket.

 

Personally I like Kelly better as a key reliever than a depth starter and its possible Soxprospects is just trying to make all the pieces fit, but that alignment is possible

 

I could have sworn soxprospect.com had Elias with 0 options a while back, when I checked.

 

That helps with the roster crunch and allows us to have some veteran starter depth on the farm.

 

I like Kelly in the pen as well, and I think he'll have to have a bad spring to start the year in AAA.

 

[notin]

I could have sworn soxprospect.com had Elias with 0 options a while back, when I checked.

 

That helps with the roster crunch and allows us to have some veteran starter depth on the farm.

 

I like Kelly in the pen as well, and I think he'll have to have a bad spring to start the year in AAA.

 

 

I think they're just making the pieces fit. And they did have 0 options for Elias. They must have learned something and updated. It happens.

 

I do think that - even with salary as a concern - it makes zero sense to run Buchholz out of town to accomodate Abad. But that alignment does take some urgency out of the bullpen roster crunch...

[Nick]

No, it's really not stupid at all. If he were our ace, then sending him to AAA just because he has options would be stupid. But we are currently looking at him to fill a #4 or 5 slot in our rotation, which Pomeranz or Wright (or Buchholz until he was traded) could have filled just as productively.

 

If you risk losing a player that might really help the team, then you send the guy with options down, at least for a while.

 

All that said, trading Buchholz alleviates some of the backlog of pitching roster spots, so there is less of a need to send ERod down.

+

DD thinks he's better than Wright. You pitch your five best. You are too obsessed with future. You are going to hold back a kid that's on same time line as Jon Lester?

Unfreaking believable. What game are you watching?

[moonslav59]

I think they're just making the pieces fit. And they did have 0 options for Elias. They must have learned something and updated. It happens.

 

I noticed another source still has Elias with 0 options:

 

http://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-boston-red-sox/

 

I do think that - even with salary as a concern - it makes zero sense to run Buchholz out of town to accomodate Abad. But that alignment does take some urgency out of the bullpen roster crunch...

 

I think the Sale trade made keeping Buch a too expensive luxury. I too doubt keeping Abad was a significant factor if pulling the trigger on Buch.

 

Personally, keeping Hembree is of more importance. He's better than Abad and has 3 years of team control.

[moonslav59]

+

DD thinks he's better than Wright. You pitch your five best. You are too obsessed with future. You are going to hold back a kid that's on same time line as Jon Lester?

Unfreaking believable. What game are you watching?

 

Our pen is not so full of great pitchers that it wouldn't be significantly improved by adding Wright or Pomeranz. There is zero chance ERod starts the year in AAA, unless he's in a horrible funk or recovering from an injury sustained in ST'ing.

 

Wright or Pom are better than anyone in our pen, except for Kimbrel and Thornburg.

 

We're not sending ERod to AAA not only because he's too valuable, but because keeping Abad or Hembree on the roster is not that important.

[notin]

+

DD thinks he's better than Wright. You pitch your five best. You are too obsessed with future. You are going to hold back a kid that's on same time line as Jon Lester?

Unfreaking believable. What game are you watching?

 

 

The game where teams hold players back for a variety of reasons all the time? Just a guess.

 

The whole "best players make the team" does work for Little League. But - and this is not condoning it, but a fact of MLB - contracts and control rule the Show.

 

The Sox chose not to demote but Rodriguez, but if they did do it (and they still might depending how the off-season plays out) it would be to keep control of as many players as possible. This kind of thing happens all the time with all 30 teams.

 

It was the reason for the overblown Tommy LaStella Retirement Threat last season. (Maybe that wasn't as big of a deal in Boston as it was here in Chicago. If so, apologies for the hopefully not obscure reference.)

[notin]

Our pen is not so full of great pitchers that it wouldn't be significantly improved by adding Wright or Pomeranz. There is zero chance ERod starts the year in AAA, unless he's in a horrible funk or recovering from an injury sustained in ST'ing.

 

 

Probably true, but the off-season is still young. Untold bargains are sometimes found in January. As are crazy impulsive decisions

 

Bear in mind our decision-maker for the team is a guy who once lost a 33 year old DH for one season, and in order to replace him, signed Prince Fielder to a 9 year $214mill contract. And he signed Fielder to that deal on JANUARY 26, long after everyone else had given up bidding on Fielder.

 

So who knows? Maybe in mid-January Dombrowski, out of sheer boredom, inks Tyson Ross or Jon Niese or Ivan Nova or whoever to a 1 year $5mill deal just to break up the ennui.

[Jack Flap]

No, it's really not stupid at all. If he were our ace, then sending him to AAA just because he has options would be stupid. But we are currently looking at him to fill a #4 or 5 slot in our rotation, which Pomeranz or Wright (or Buchholz until he was traded) could have filled just as productively.

 

If you risk losing a player that might really help the team, then you send the guy with options down, at least for a while.

 

All that said, trading Buchholz alleviates some of the backlog of pitching roster spots, so there is less of a need to send ERod down.

 

I don't know why some are acting like this is such a black-and-white decision. Assuming everyone is healthy and looks strong in camp, would starting Wright and Pomeranz (both All-Stars in 2016) over Rodriguez out of the gate really be so indefensible?