A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[moonslav59]

My thoughts?

 

First I would like an explanation of how FG has rated Pedrioa's base running so low? This, since you begin to justify your moves by stating that he is so poor a base runner.

 

He's never been a burner or even really fast. But he has always seemed to be smart when on base. Of course there is no way for a lay person such as myself to counter such lofty experts as FG.

 

What makes him so bad a base running?

 

He's actually been bad for a while, being negative fore 3 years before dropping further this year.

 

He hustles and pays attention, but he's slow and runs into more outs than others. He hits into a lot of DPs.

 

Even if you grant that he is a decent base runner, surely you have to believe Beni is much better and Bogey is better.

 

I didn't see these numbers first, then form my opinion. It was actually the other way around. I read somewhere that JBj was one of MLB's better runners, even though he didn't have a ;ot of speed, and it made me think of how I felt Pedey used to be that way, but I I had fely he had gotten worse over the years, so I went to fangraphs to confirm or refute my observations.

 

I trust a 4 year sample size of fangraphs' results as being telling.

[oldtimer]

He's actually been bad for a while, being negative fore 3 years before dropping further this year.

 

He hustles and pays attention, but he's slow and runs into more outs than others. He hits into a lot of DPs.

 

Even if you grant that he is a decent base runner, surely you have to believe Beni is much better and Bogey is better.

 

I didn't see these numbers first, then form my opinion. It was actually the other way around. I read somewhere that JBj was one of MLB's better runners, even though he didn't have a ;ot of speed, and it made me think of how I felt Pedey used to be that way, but I I had fely he had gotten worse over the years, so I went to fangraphs to confirm or refute my observations.

 

I trust a 4 year sample size of fangraphs' results as being telling.

 

Pedey was red hot with the bat toward the end of the season. You have to get on base to be a base runner. In that respect, both JBJ and Bogey had problems getting on base during the same period. For that reason, I prefer Pedey batting second and the others later in the lineup, until they show they can hit for a decent average. Both Bogey and JBJ may move forward in that respect in 2017 and I certainly hope they do, for without them hitting we become a much weaker offensive team.

[S5Dewey]

Pedey was red hot with the bat toward the end of the season. You have to get on base to be a base runner. In that respect, both JBJ and Bogey had problems getting on base during the same period. For that reason, I prefer Pedey batting second and the others later in the lineup, until they show they can hit for a decent average. Both Bogey and JBJ may move forward in that respect in 2017 and I certainly hope they do, for without them hitting we become a much weaker offensive team.

 

And there, ladies and gentlemen, is the best argument against all this nit-picking against Pedey's abilities. I'm going to say this really slowly. One has to get on base to be a baserunner - and the only player with a better OBP than Papi in 2016 was Dustin Pedroia.

 

Sure, it would be great to have the player with the best OBP also be one of the best baserunners but we have to play the hand we're dealt. Since the goal of a leadoff hitter is to get on base I'd rather have our leadoff hitter have one of the best OBP's on the team even if he's not the best baserunner.

 

I'll be so glad when they're playing baseball again. There's entirely too much confusing and conflicting data floating around and too much of it is being 'jumped on' by people trying to make their own case for something. IMO Bill James' character on Family Guy was right when he said, "I've made baseball about as much fun as doing your taxes".

 

But.. it's the off season and the team is pretty well set, I guess. So what else do we have to talk about?

[cp176]

And there, ladies and gentlemen, is the best argument against all this nit-picking against Pedey's abilities. I'm going to say this really slowly. One has to get on base to be a baserunner - and the only player with a better OBP than Papi in 2016 was Dustin Pedroia.

 

Sure, it would be great to have the player with the best OBP also be one of the best baserunners but we have to play the hand we're dealt. Since the goal of a leadoff hitter is to get on base I'd rather have our leadoff hitter have one of the best OBP's on the team even if he's not the best baserunner.

 

I'll be so glad when they're playing baseball again. There's entirely too much confusing and conflicting data floating around and too much of it is being 'jumped on' by people trying to make their own case for something. IMO Bill James' character on Family Guy was right when he said, "I've made baseball about as much fun as doing your taxes".

 

But.. it's the off season and the team is pretty well set, I guess. So what else do we have to talk about?

 

I like this. Moon said that he read that JBJ did not have much speed. Who knew? When I saw him in Portland, he looked awfully fast as in faster than Elsbury from first to third. When I think of Benintendi I think of a kid who might become a good baserunner but I would prefer Pedroia on the bases just because he has been around longer and is a fairly smart ballplayer. The data once again seems to prove me wrong. The advanced data sometimes spoils the beauty and the magic of the game for me.

[S5Dewey]

And there, ladies and gentlemen, is the best argument against all this nit-picking against Pedey's abilities. I'm going to say this really slowly. One has to get on base to be a baserunner - and the only player with a better OBP than Papi in 2016 was Dustin Pedroia.

 

Sure, it would be great to have the player with the best OBP also be one of the best baserunners but we have to play the hand we're dealt. Since the goal of a leadoff hitter is to get on base I'd rather have our leadoff hitter have one of the best OBP's on the team even if he's not the best baserunner.

 

I'll be so glad when they're playing baseball again. There's entirely too much confusing and conflicting data floating around and too much of it is being 'jumped on' by people trying to make their own case for something. IMO Bill James' character on Family Guy was right when he said, "I've made baseball about as much fun as doing your taxes".

 

But.. it's the off season and the team is pretty well set, I guess. So what else do we have to talk about?

 

My old memory is failing me. Lest I be corrected, it was James himself who said it when he made a guest appearance on an episode of The Simpsons.

 

http://nesn.com/2010/10/sabermetrician-bill-james-pokes-fun-at-himself-on-the-simpsons/

 

In the words of Earl Weaver - "Being right isn't everything. Being able to prove it is."

[mvp 78]

Come on folks, it's almost Christmas, let's be a little more charitable toward each other. Kimmi's analogy may not have been perfect, but it doesn't warrant such abuse. It's like partisan politics here. You Americans are such hard-asses.

 

This.

[Dojji]

He hits into a lot of DPs.

 

Why the holy flaming buttery hell does that count against you as a baserunner? Makes no sense. Baserunning is about what you do once on, the mad scramble for first base after you've put the ball on the ground has zero to do with skill and even less to do with baserunning.

 

Double plays are about contact and quality of contact. They're a natural drawback of highly skilled contact hitters. The harder and more consistently you hit the ball the more you will hit into double plays. it's not what you want to be doing, but if you're HIDPing a lot, it's because you're putting the bat on the ball and getting it fair, and getting it to the fielders quickly -- if you want to be a good hitter, that's actually a pretty good start at the things you need to be doing. There's a reason that the all time leaders in GIDP are Yaz, followed by Rice, Evans, Papi and Teddy. HIDPs have a whole hell of a lot more to do with being a good hitter, than being a bad baserunner.

 

Yes if you have speed you can avoid double plays from time to time, but again, that has very VERY little to do with baserunning skill. Madly scrambling in the general direction of first base is a talent thing, not a skill thing. Meanwhile, double plays are a direct consequence of being a high quality contact hitter who stings the ball. The harder you hit it the more likely you'll HIDP because you're giving yourself less time to get to the base. Again, this is not a baserunning issue, especially not where it concerns Pedroia. His problems with double plays rarely have anything whatsoever to do with baserunning skill. They're the natural consequence of his very high ability to make contact with the baseball.

Edited December 20, 2016 by Dojji

[mvp 78]

Buttery hell sounds delicious though.

[Dojji]

I don't know why I use that expression, except that it popped into my head one day and I find it funny. I use it for situations that absolutely defy the very idea of logic, and it's a very good "this is BS" sort of expression for me

[Hugh2]

Last years draft was all about Groome, the other high ceiling picks didn't sign.

 

Dalbec had a nice start and I hope he turns into a diamond in the rough. This is a guy who struck out 32% of the time in college, he's got a TON of swing and miss in his swing and had a good year against lesser competition in Lowell.

 

Word on the street was the Sox liked him better as a pitcher but he really wanted to play 3rd base. It's a lot easier to switch to pitching from hitting than the other way around so why not let him hit and see what he can do.

 

I'm not trying to take anything away from him. And I'm hoping he proves people wrong but I'd take his first season with a huge grain of salt. Guys who hit for power but have a big hole in their swing in the lower minors have 100 times more ways to fail than to succeed on their way to the majors.

 

The guys I really wanted after Groome were Nick Quintana, and Jeff Belge. After Groome, we probably have a future reliever or two and thats it. Chatham could develop but he's probably more likely a utility role.

 

In hindsight, a lot of the high upside picks like Quintana were guys they had no chance in signing but would make a run at with some more money if Groome failed to sign. the 2015 draft is really a one man show.

[Hugh2]

I like this. Moon said that he read that JBJ did not have much speed. Who knew? When I saw him in Portland, he looked awfully fast as in faster than Elsbury from first to third. When I think of Benintendi I think of a kid who might become a good baserunner but I would prefer Pedroia on the bases just because he has been around longer and is a fairly smart ballplayer. The data once again seems to prove me wrong. The advanced data sometimes spoils the beauty and the magic of the game for me.

 

He ain't slow that's for sure! but JBJ is no blazer either. What puts him over the top is his instincts on the base paths, sometimes that's worth just as much if not more than speed.

[moonslav59]

Pedey was red hot with the bat toward the end of the season. You have to get on base to be a base runner. In that respect, both JBJ and Bogey had problems getting on base during the same period. For that reason, I prefer Pedey batting second and the others later in the lineup, until they show they can hit for a decent average. Both Bogey and JBJ may move forward in that respect in 2017 and I certainly hope they do, for without them hitting we become a much weaker offensive team.

 

I respectfully disagree that a player's prior 2 months performance level is the best predictor of what comes next.

[moonslav59]

And there, ladies and gentlemen, is the best argument against all this nit-picking against Pedey's abilities. I'm going to say this really slowly. One has to get on base to be a baserunner - and the only player with a better OBP than Papi in 2016 was Dustin Pedroia.

 

Sure, it would be great to have the player with the best OBP also be one of the best baserunners but we have to play the hand we're dealt. Since the goal of a leadoff hitter is to get on base I'd rather have our leadoff hitter have one of the best OBP's on the team even if he's not the best baserunner.

 

I'll be so glad when they're playing baseball again. There's entirely too much confusing and conflicting data floating around and too much of it is being 'jumped on' by people trying to make their own case for something. IMO Bill James' character on Family Guy was right when he said, "I've made baseball about as much fun as doing your taxes".

 

But.. it's the off season and the team is pretty well set, I guess. So what else do we have to talk about?

 

I respectfully disagree that a player's last season is the best predictor of what comes next.

 

And, this isn't about nit-picking Pedey. I was actually viewing it in the light of losing Papi's power and putting a better SLG% guy in the 4-5 hole instead of Bogey.

 

I don't view Bogey's late season struggle as a sign of an upcoming worse season. I think his OBP will rise from being close to .020 lower than Pedey to being about the same.

 

I was also basing the moves on the assumption that Beni has a comparable OBP as Pedey. (He was '017 being Pedey in a very small sample size this year.)

 

I do admit that part of my position is based on my belief that Pedey's OBP might fall next year, but it's more about my belief that the younger players will keep improving, and the fact that they are better base runners.

 

I'm not pretending that my predictive methodology is better than others, but I tend to eschew short sample sizes and look at longer 3-5 year trends and age curves.

 

Here's Pedey's last 5 years of OBP (old to new): .347>.372>.337>.356>.376

Here's his SLG% over the same period: .449>.415>.376>.441>.449 (age 32)

 

Bogey OBP: .320>.297>.355>.356

Bogey SLG: .364>.362>.421>.446 (age 23)

 

I do agree that OBP is the most important goal of a lead off hitter, but it's also almost equally important for the number 2 hitter, so that is one reason I would be fine with Beni first and Pedey second, but I think the GDP factor and other base running factors tips my scales to favor Bogey 2nd for 2017.

 

It's a close call, and I'm fine with Pedey 2nd or leading off to start the season, but if Beni is lighting it up, especially with an improved OBP, I think the call should be made.

 

You're right about reaching for new things to talk about. Some of these other issues have been beaten to death several times over.

 

 

[Dojji]

I respectfully disagree that a player's last season is the best predictor of what comes next.

 

This is true, however, Pedroia's career OBP is .366, which means his .376 OBP this year is well within a standard deviation of the mean. His worst full year was .337. Pedroia is a player that you can count on to get his diminutive butt on base, it's one of his best skills. Remembering years where we were leading off with Kevin Youkilis I have no problem with slipping Pedey into the top of the order.

 

I actually think we do have a bit of a problem here. All of Betts, Bogaerts and Pedey are RHH. If we assume Betts bats third (and he definitely should bat third) then we can't have Bogey or Pedroia batting second. Second place hitter needs to be a LHH or a switch, so either Benintendi or Bardley, to avoid creating a matchup weakness that can be exploited in late innings. That means Pedroia is probably our leadoff hitter, followed by hopefully a Benintendi that isn't in the middle of a sophomore slump, and Bradley winds up down nearer the bottom of the order where he seems to be a lot more comfortable.

[Dojji]

If course, there is another alternative, but it would depend on moving some things around. Everyone remembers that Swihart hits switch right? OBP seems to be something he gets right too, and he stole 4 bases in his half season in '15. If a hole opens that he can fill (and we may want him at catcher first and foremost, but he has the athleticism to play a few other positions), Swi may wind up filling in at the top of the order from time to time.

[mvp 78]

This is true, however, Pedroia's career OBP is .366, which means his .376 OBP this year is well within a standard deviation of the mean. His worst full year was .337. Pedroia is a player that you can count on to get his diminutive butt on base, it's one of his best skills. Remembering years where we were leading off with Kevin Youkilis I have no problem with slipping Pedey into the top of the order.

 

I actually think we do have a bit of a problem here. All of Betts, Bogaerts and Pedey are RHH. If we assume Betts bats third (and he definitely should bat third) then we can't have Bogey or Pedroia batting second. Second place hitter needs to be a LHH or a switch, so either Benintendi or Bardley, to avoid creating a matchup weakness that can be exploited in late innings. That means Pedroia is probably our leadoff hitter, followed by hopefully a Benintendi that isn't in the middle of a sophomore slump, and Bradley winds up down nearer the bottom of the order where he seems to be a lot more comfortable.

 

Pedey

Beni

Betts

Panda (http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=5409&position=3B&season=0&split=11.4)

Hanley

Bradley

Xander

[Dojji]

Rather swap Panda and Bradley in that lineup, but it looks pretty good

[mvp 78]

Rather swap Panda and Bradley in that lineup, but it looks pretty good

 

Panda's best numbers are hitting cleanup. He's going to have a monster year.

[sk7326]

Pedroia

Betts - want your best hitter 2nd

Bogaerts

Ramirez

Benintendi

(some DH)

Sandoval

(some C)

Bradley

[moonslav59]

I like this. Moon said that he read that JBJ did not have much speed. Who knew? When I saw him in Portland, he looked awfully fast as in faster than Elsbury from first to third. When I think of Benintendi I think of a kid who might become a good baserunner but I would prefer Pedroia on the bases just because he has been around longer and is a fairly smart ballplayer. The data once again seems to prove me wrong. The advanced data sometimes spoils the beauty and the magic of the game for me.

 

I don't see JBJ as being fast in terms of comparing to other CF'ers or as a base stealer, but he's certainly not slow.

 

He has quick reaction times and a great ability to read the proper path needed to track down fly balls. He's a smart base runner who uses his plus but not great speed to be a better base runner than some guys that are faster than him.

 

Pedey is not the slowest runner in the league, but he has slowed down. Again, this was not about me looking at data and then making my opinion up; it was about my observations leading me to look at the data and seeing that it backed up my opinion.

 

He doesn't take the extra base as much. He runs into outs more often than before.

 

Here is some data from BR:

 

Extra base taken when possible in 2016:

63% Bogey

59% Betts

53% Beni (small sample size)

51% JBJ

(40% league average)

39% HanRam

35% Pedey

29% Shaw

16% Papi

 

Running into outs on base:

11 HanRam

7 Pedey, Ortiz, Shaw, Bogey

5 Holt & JBJ

4 Beni (scary when considering his amount of time on base)

 

Now, lets look at Pedey's MVP year in 2008:

 

95% SB% to 64% in 2016

 

Running into outs on base: 7 (same as 2016)

 

Extra base taken 48% led the team (39% league average)

 

SB%, outs run into, XBT%

 

2008: 95%, 7 and 48%

2009: 71%, 6 and 40% (39% league avg.)

2010: 90%, 2 and 39% (equal to league avg.) short season

2011: 76%, 4 and 36%

2012: 77%, 6 and 45%

2013: 77%, 10 and 40%

2014: 50%, 6 and 46%

2015: 50%, 8 and 32%

2016: 64%, 7 and 35%

 

One can see a clear decline in SB%, more outs run into over the last 4 years, and a big dip in extra bases taken over the last two years. My observations were not deceiving.

 

Bogey:

2014: 40%, 4 and 44%

2015: 83%, 9 and 69%

2016: 76%, 7 and 63%

 

 

[moonslav59]

Why the holy flaming buttery hell does that count against you as a baserunner? Makes no sense. Baserunning is about what you do once on, the mad scramble for first base after you've put the ball on the ground has zero to do with skill and even less to do with baserunning.

 

Double plays are about contact and quality of contact. They're a natural drawback of highly skilled contact hitters. The harder and more consistently you hit the ball the more you will hit into double plays. it's not what you want to be doing, but if you're HIDPing a lot, it's because you're putting the bat on the ball and getting it fair, and getting it to the fielders quickly -- if you want to be a good hitter, that's actually a pretty good start at the things you need to be doing. There's a reason that the all time leaders in GIDP are Yaz, followed by Rice, Evans, Papi and Teddy. HIDPs have a whole hell of a lot more to do with being a good hitter, than being a bad baserunner.

 

Yes if you have speed you can avoid double plays from time to time, but again, that has very VERY little to do with baserunning skill. Madly scrambling in the general direction of first base is a talent thing, not a skill thing. Meanwhile, double plays are a direct consequence of being a high quality contact hitter who stings the ball. The harder you hit it the more likely you'll HIDP because you're giving yourself less time to get to the base. Again, this is not a baserunning issue, especially not where it concerns Pedroia. His problems with double plays rarely have anything whatsoever to do with baserunning skill. They're the natural consequence of his very high ability to make contact with the baseball.

 

I'd rather have a guy who has the same OBP but hits into less DPs up 1st or 2nd.

 

I realize high DPs numbers are not in large part a result of being slow, but a DP is a DP and it matters. Certainly not as much as OBP and making contact, especially for a #2 guy, but it matters to a small degree when added to the other factors of base running.

[a700hitter]

Panda's best numbers are hitting cleanup. He's going to have a monster year.

Are you hitting the eggnog before noon? I am also hoping that Panda has a big turnaround season, but even if he does, I would not be comfortable with him in the cleanup spot. Here is the lineup that i would go with:

 

1. Benintendi

2. Pedroia

3. Bogaerts

4. Betts

5. Hanley

6 Pablo

7. Bradley

8. Young/Moreland

9. Catcher

 

I am still holding out hope that EE falls to us, because I am not thrilled with the lineup against LHP.

Edited December 20, 2016 by a700hitter

[mvp 78]

Are you hitting the eggnog before noon? I am also hoping that Panda has a big turnaround season, but even if he does, I would not be comfortable with him in the cleanup spot. Here is the lineup that i would go with:

 

1. Benintendi

2. Pedroia

3. Bogaerts

4. Betts

5. Hanley

6 Pablo

7. Bradley

8. Young/Moreland

9. Catcher

 

I am still holding out hoe that EE falls to us, because I am not thrilled with the lineup against LHP.

 

Intravenous nog my friend.

[a700hitter]

Intravenous nog my friend.

An excellent gift giving idea.

[moonslav59]

Last years draft was all about Groome, the other high ceiling picks didn't sign.

 

Dalbec had a nice start and I hope he turns into a diamond in the rough. This is a guy who struck out 32% of the time in college, he's got a TON of swing and miss in his swing and had a good year against lesser competition in Lowell.

 

Word on the street was the Sox liked him better as a pitcher but he really wanted to play 3rd base. It's a lot easier to switch to pitching from hitting than the other way around so why not let him hit and see what he can do.

 

I'm not trying to take anything away from him. And I'm hoping he proves people wrong but I'd take his first season with a huge grain of salt. Guys who hit for power but have a big hole in their swing in the lower minors have 100 times more ways to fail than to succeed on their way to the majors.

 

The guys I really wanted after Groome were Nick Quintana, and Jeff Belge. After Groome, we probably have a future reliever or two and thats it. Chatham could develop but he's probably more likely a utility role.

 

In hindsight, a lot of the high upside picks like Quintana were guys they had no chance in signing but would make a run at with some more money if Groome failed to sign. the 2015 draft is really a one man show.

 

I trust your analysis of young prospects more than my own.

 

I'm hopeful that one or two from Dalbec, Chatham, Shawaryn and Nogosek move up more than expected.

 

What are your thoughts on 17 year old Bryan Mata (not a draft pick but still a recent international signing)?

[S5Dewey]

I respectfully disagree that a player's last season is the best predictor of what comes next.

 

And, this isn't about nit-picking Pedey. I was actually viewing it in the light of losing Papi's power and putting a better SLG% guy in the 4-5 hole instead of Bogey.

 

I don't view Bogey's late season struggle as a sign of an upcoming worse season. I think his OBP will rise from being close to .020 lower than Pedey to being about the same.

 

I was also basing the moves on the assumption that Beni has a comparable OBP as Pedey. (He was '017 being Pedey in a very small sample size this year.)

 

I do admit that part of my position is based on my belief that Pedey's OBP might fall next year, but it's more about my belief that the younger players will keep improving, and the fact that they are better base runners.

 

I'm not pretending that my predictive methodology is better than others, but I tend to eschew short sample sizes and look at longer 3-5 year trends and age curves.

 

Here's Pedey's last 5 years of OBP (old to new): .347>.372>.337>.356>.376

Here's his SLG% over the same period: .449>.415>.376>.441>.449 (age 32)

 

Bogey OBP: .320>.297>.355>.356

Bogey SLG: .364>.362>.421>.446 (age 23)

 

I do agree that OBP is the most important goal of a lead off hitter, but it's also almost equally important for the number 2 hitter, so that is one reason I would be fine with Beni first and Pedey second, but I think the GDP factor and other base running factors tips my scales to favor Bogey 2nd for 2017.

 

It's a close call, and I'm fine with Pedey 2nd or leading off to start the season, but if Beni is lighting it up, especially with an improved OBP, I think the call should be made.

 

You're right about reaching for new things to talk about. Some of these other issues have been beaten to death several times over.

 

 

 

I find that I disagree with Moon at my own peril but in this case I'm being perilous.

 

I agree with everything ^^ in principle but IMO there's something left out of the yearly numbers. Pedey is a player who can hit to his position in the order. If he needs to get on base he can get on base and if he's at a spot in the order where he needs some power he can do that too. IIRC his best two months of OBP were when he was moved to the leadoff spot which skewed his OBP upward. That's why I don't think his yearly averages are indicative of his ability as a leadoff hitter.

 

You could be right about his slowing down but his BA in 2016 was his best year since 2008 and his SLG & OPS was his best since 2011. Is he ever going to slow down? I don't see him ever falling off the table but when he starts to slow down his physique (and his balls-to-the-wall power swing) tells me that the first thing to go may be his power. He could very well slow down in 2017 and still be a very good leadoff hitter.

[moonslav59]

I actually think we do have a bit of a problem here. All of Betts, Bogaerts and Pedey are RHH. If we assume Betts bats third (and he definitely should bat third) then we can't have Bogey or Pedroia batting second. Second place hitter needs to be a LHH or a switch, so either Benintendi or Bardley, to avoid creating a matchup weakness that can be exploited in late innings. That means Pedroia is probably our leadoff hitter, followed by hopefully a Benintendi that isn't in the middle of a sophomore slump, and Bradley winds up down nearer the bottom of the order where he seems to be a lot more comfortable.

 

I disagree. Pedey hits lefties and righties pretty evenly, actually better than most switch hitters and lefties do.

His last three years?

OBP vs RHPs .357 (.420 SLG) & vs LHPs .359 (.424 SLG)

Who cares about lefty-righty with numbers like these?

Sox team vs RHPs since 2014

OPS (OBP)

.862 Betts (.360)

.777 Pedey (.357)

.766 Ram (.325)

.766 Young (.319)

.747 JBJ (.317)

.733 Pablo (.314)

.727 Swihart (.323)

.722 Bogey (.324)

.712 Holt (.331)

.705 Leon (.328)

.584 Vaz (.282)

 

Sox Team vs LHPs since 2014

OPS (OBP)

.999 Young (.410)

.916 HanRam .353

.838 Bogey .380

.832 Betts .336

.782 Pedey .359

.759 Leon .333

.726 Holt .348

.709 JBJ .325

.673 Swihart .344

.667 Vazquez .333

.465 Pablo

 

I think you try to avoid three in a row not two.

 

I also think the 3 or 4 PAs early in the game usually make up for the one "mismatch" late in the game.

 

Some players' numbers change dramatically, if you take away 2014:

 

OPS vs RHPs/vs LHPs:

 

JBJ .871/.748

Betts .870/.829

Pedey .812/.822

Ram .766/.916

Bogey .762/.883

 

I could see maybe batting Bogey 2nd vs LHPs only as an option.

[moonslav59]

Intravenous nog my friend.

 

Fat slobs always hit best clean-up.

[S5Dewey]

Fat slobs always hit best clean-up.

 

And very few things will turn someone into a fat slob any faster than eggnog.

[moonslav59]

I find that I disagree with Moon at my own peril but in this case I'm being perilous.

 

I agree with everything ^^ in principle but IMO there's something left out of the yearly numbers. Pedey is a player who can hit to his position in the order. If he needs to get on base he can get on base and if he's at a spot in the order where he needs some power he can do that too. IIRC his best two months of OBP were when he was moved to the leadoff spot which skewed his OBP upward. That's why I don't think his yearly averages are indicative of his ability as a leadoff hitter.

 

You could be right about his slowing down but his BA in 2016 was his best year since 2008 and his SLG & OPS was his best since 2011. Is he ever going to slow down? I don't see him ever falling off the table but when he starts to slow down his physique (and his balls-to-the-wall power swing) tells me that the first thing to go may be his power. He could very well slow down in 2017 and still be a very good leadoff hitter.

 

What's strange about Pedey's career splits is that his best slot has been clean-up!

Slots with 150+ career PAs

1st .777 (.354 OBP)

2nd .815 (.367)

3rd .802 (.368)

4th 1.054 (.424)

9th .800 (.377)

As you can see, lead off has been Pedey's worst OBP slot.

 

I'm not sure if a two month sample size is all that indicative of where Pedey hits best, and neither are career splits, granted.

 

Again, I'm fine with at least starting Pedey lead off (or second), but if Beni is getting on base over 36% of the time, I think we'd have to consider moving him up to the 1 slot.