A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[southpaw777]

Buchholtz is the best candidate. I serious doubt Sox can recoup $13M on an annual value from Pablo and Hanley. Pablo maybe $5M per year and Hanley $10M per year.

 

We need Hanley.

 

We simply need to do with make shift bullpen and hope that no starter (Price, Porcello, Pomeranz, Wright and E Rod) gets hurt. We don't need to sign anyone.

We can trade away some surplus for relievers.

 

IF ITS OUR INTENT TO STAY BELOW THE LUXURY TAX.

 

We need pitching depth more...Buch makes only 6 starters. And no, Owens and zjohnson dont count because they have peoved nothing. Losing Buch would be worse than losing either of the other two IMHO

To think no picture or reliever would get her is naïve at best. Someone's going down. You can count on it... probably more than one person

[southpaw777]

I guess you don't believe that eating disorders are diseases. They are also diseases that can be cured.

 

Yeah, we can blame Pablo for not "getting help" earlier, if that's what floats your boat, but I'm not giving up on Pablo. He'll get a chance to show what he looks like first, and then to show if he can still play at or near the level he showed in SF (as a fat guy, I might add).

 

Eating disorders, just like alcoholism, just like drug addiction, and just like anything else that is an addiction...its not a disease. I'm sorry if I offend some people but the word disease got put into addiction so that they could get money from insurance companies...

A couple of wacky psychologists came up with that theory and the theory Was found to be ******** pretty quick, but they stayed with "disease" because they actually got money for it. And now it's used as an excuse by a lot of people instead of taking complete responsibility for their own actions... like I said I'm not trying to offend anybody...I grew up in a family full of addicts, so I really don't have time for that ******** that they have a disease....its a choice

 

Edit: I don't mean to be insensitive. I'm really not. Actually I'll be the first person to give you the shirt off my back and do anything to help you. My whole concern is I don't think using any excuses for their behavior, that they need to change, helps them. So once again I stand by my Belief that addiction is not a disease.

Im all for giving Pablo a fair shot again. I hope he can get a hold of his eating problem, and make better choices for his own health. I'm more in favor of a trade for various reasons other than those already dicussed. I thought he was a bad fit from the start. I wish nothing but success for him, whether here or somewhere else. I dont wish ill will on any person, even the ones who treat me badly...but I'm also not one for coddling anyone either...

Edited December 1, 2016 by southpaw777

[cp176]

Eating disorders, just like alcoholism, just like drug addiction, and just like anything else that is an addiction...its not a disease. I'm sorry if I offend some people but the word disease got put into addiction so that they could get money from insurance companies...

A couple of wacky psychologists came up with that theory and the theory Was found to be ******** pretty quick, but they stayed with "disease" because they actually got money for it. And now it's used as an excuse by a lot of people instead of taking complete responsibility for their own actions... like I said I'm not trying to offend anybody...I grew up in a family full of addicts, so I really don't have time for that ******** that they have a disease....its a choice

 

Edit: I don't mean to be insensitive. I'm really not. Actually I'll be the first person to give you the shirt off my back and do anything to help you. My whole concern is I don't think using any excuses for their behavior, that they need to change, helps them. So once again I stand by my Belief that addiction is not a disease.

 

I have had very close experiences with both cancer (which I consider to be a disease) and eating disorders(which I do consider to be addictions or disorders of sorts). I agree very much with you and it is safe to say that I am a fairly sensitive person.

My opinion and once again it is just my opinion - I do not think that Sandoval suffers from what I would call an addiction. He exercises too little and eats way too much. He is 30 - end of story.

[notin]

We need pitching depth more...Buch makes only 6 starters. And no, Owens and zjohnson dont count because they have peoved nothing. Losing Buch would be worse than losing either of the other two IMHO

To think no picture or reliever would get her is naïve at best. Someone's going down. You can count on it... probably more than one person

 

I've always said a team needs 7-10 starting pitchers before the season starts, and really, even that number can be a little light.

 

As it stands now, I don't think Dombrowski is going to add to the MLB rotation. But i do hope he adds to the depth of the PPawtucket rotation. I haven't given up on Owens or Johnson yet, but I would like to see the Sox push both a little further back on the depth chart. And do so with more than just Sean O'Sullivan. ...

[Hugh2]

I leave the classification of what is or is not a disease to the professionals. What makes things like addiction (food or drugs) a disease is the chemical reaction that happens in your brain. The disease is the predisposition you have to addiction, I think it's confusing to some people because there is a choice involved and yes they DO ultimately make that choice but remember once it's made they have a legitimate disease and if you want to blame them for that just remember that you made the same decision at one point in your life if you ever picked up just one alcoholic beverage. We can sit here all day and argue what type of empathy we should have for people who decide to stick a need in their arm or a donut in their mouth vs. someone who GETS cancer. We can disagree there but I think we should leave the classification of diseases to the professionals.

[Hugh2]

Now back to 2017. The story line I find the most fascinating is the 2017 rotation, will it be worse or better? There is much to be optimistic about but also much to make one weary.

 

David Price - after a slow start he was still effectively David Price, so was one bad month a fluke? I can easily see him having an overall better season but the questions of post season performance remain.

 

Rick Porcello - gone from horrible BC move to a brilliant find and a CY YOUNG which coincidentally I made the argument back in the BDC thread that often pitchers who become aces often have very lackluster beginnings to their careers. The example I used before was Max Scherzer who really seem to come into his own the same age as Porcello. Did we see the real Rick last year? did he take the leap forward? Will he easily be an ACE again? It's hard to believe there is much room for improvement for a guy who won the CY-Young and it's reasonable to assume he could take a step back in value but I do think to some extent he's taken a step forward in his career.

 

Eduardo Rodriguez - we've seen the potential, but he's yet to put together a solid consistent season. He's still very young, and very talent, and with that in mind there is really little reason for concern but I don't feel comfortable penciling him in as a #3 until he actually does it. He could easily be anything from a good #2 this year to a BOTRS, to injured.

 

Clay Buchholz - I.....I got nothing. Throw a dart at a board. Inured all year, injured half the year and good the other half, injured half the year and sucky the other half.

 

Stephen Wright - didn't seem the same after returning from injury. He looked like an ACE the first half of the year, I don't expect that this season but could he be still be good enough to hold down a rotation spot all year? if he can....that bodes very well for this pitching staff to add some depth to it.

 

Drew Pomeranz - How can I forget this guy? well I almost did. A once highly regarded prospect turned failed starter turned successful reliever turned successful starter turned questionable this seasons end. I'm skeptical on Drew, I know he has talent but we've yet to see him put together a full, healthy successful. season. My hope with Drew, is the first half of the season was the REAL Pomeranz and his later struggles were due to fatigue. Fatigue would be natural for someone who has never pitched a full season as he has. If he can replicate what he did last year, and has more stamina in his sophomore season as a full time starter then he could easily be a #2 here.

[Nick]

I've always said a team needs 7-10 starting pitchers before the season starts, and really, even that number can be a little light.

 

As it stands now, I don't think Dombrowski is going to add to the MLB rotation. But i do hope he adds to the depth of the PPawtucket rotation. I haven't given up on Owens or Johnson yet, but I would like to see the Sox push both a little further back on the depth chart. And do so with more than just Sean O'Sullivan. ...

 

I was simply responding to Moon's topic on shedding salaries. Trading Buch has a bigger impact because Sox would have to eat significant part of Pablo's contract. $13 M vs say $5M......

 

This all points to we have little wiggle room to acquire new free agents without going over the cap. We need more team controlled players to step up. Kopech arrival would help. Hoping for a September call up.

Edited December 1, 2016 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Buchholtz is the best candidate. I serious doubt Sox can recoup $13M on an annual value from Pablo and Hanley. Pablo maybe $5M per year and Hanley $10M per year.

 

We need Hanley.

 

We simply need to do with make shift bullpen and hope that no starter (Price, Porcello, Pomeranz, Wright and E Rod) gets hurt. We don't need to sign anyone.

We can trade away some surplus for relievers.

 

IF ITS OUR INTENT TO STAY BELOW THE LUXURY TAX.

 

I don't think we'd have to pay any of HanRam's $22M a year x 2 remaining.

 

I seriously doubt trading him is even being thought of.

[moonslav59]

The easiest solution would be to DFA Sandoval and remove him from the 40 man roster like Castillo and Craig. No one will claim him.

 

A distinct possibility is a trade of Buchholz, who, if the Sox hadn't picked up his option, would be the best free agent starting pitcher this year after 36yo Rich Hill....

 

His salary would still count on the luxury tax budget.

[moonslav59]

I've always said a team needs 7-10 starting pitchers before the season starts, and really, even that number can be a little light.

 

As it stands now, I don't think Dombrowski is going to add to the MLB rotation. But i do hope he adds to the depth of the PPawtucket rotation. I haven't given up on Owens or Johnson yet, but I would like to see the Sox push both a little further back on the depth chart. And do so with more than just Sean O'Sullivan. ...

 

I agree. I do not want to trade Buch. Last year, we seemed to be very deep in SP'er depth, even if most was mediocre at best, but we ended up starting O'Sullivan 4 times ... IN MAY for God's sake! MAY!

 

The only way I trade Buch is if it frees up enough money to add a better SP'er or an equal but maybe more reliable SP'er plus an extra RP'er.

[a700hitter]

Eating disorders, just like alcoholism, just like drug addiction, and just like anything else that is an addiction...its not a disease. I'm sorry if I offend some people but the word disease got put into addiction so that they could get money from insurance companies...

A couple of wacky psychologists came up with that theory and the theory Was found to be ******** pretty quick, but they stayed with "disease" because they actually got money for it. And now it's used as an excuse by a lot of people instead of taking complete responsibility for their own actions... like I said I'm not trying to offend anybody...I grew up in a family full of addicts, so I really don't have time for that ******** that they have a disease....its a choice

 

Edit: I don't mean to be insensitive. I'm really not. Actually I'll be the first person to give you the shirt off my back and do anything to help you. My whole concern is I don't think using any excuses for their behavior, that they need to change, helps them. So once again I stand by my Belief that addiction is not a disease.

Im all for giving Pablo a fair shot again. I hope he can get a hold of his eating problem, and make better choices for his own health. I'm more in favor of a trade for various reasons other than those already dicussed. I thought he was a bad fit from the start. I wish nothing but success for him, whether here or somewhere else. I dont wish ill will on any person, even the ones who treat me badly...but I'm also not one for coddling anyone either...

I agree wholeheartedly.

[moonslav59]

With the luxury tax set at only $195M next year and our tax rate at I believe 50% next year, I'm not sure how much more than the $10M or so we have to get to the limit we will spend. The limit only goes up to $197M in 2018, and we don't lose much salary after 2017:

 

$13.5M Buchholz

 

$6.5M Young

 

The good thing is, losing this $20M is not losing highly important players. Both should be able to be replaced from within the system (Kopech for Buch and maybe Moncada, Swihart, Travis, Devers or Basabe for Young). Then there's these possibilities:

 

Maybe HanRam's $22M, if he fails to reach 1050 PAs from 2016-2017 or flunks the physical.

 

Maybe Kimbrel's $10.5M luxury cost, if we refuse his $13M option for 2018.

[mvp 78]

I think passionate fans everywhere will pretty much react the same. However, I think, though I really don't know for sure, that Boston has a larger population of really hardcore fans, and I also think that the media in Boston is tougher on the Sox players than the media in other cities. In other words, I still think Boston is a tougher place to play for some athletes.

 

I will disagree with you since I've lived in 2 other larger markets as well. I don't believe Boston is a more hardcore sports town. I just think more Bostonians move to other places in the country because the weather sucks and it's too expensive. This causes more Sox fans to be seen throughout the country so it just "seems" like we are more hardcore.

[notin]

I was simply responding to Moon's topic on shedding salaries. Trading Buch has a bigger impact because Sox would have to eat significant part of Pablo's contract. $13 M vs say $5M......

 

This all points to we have little wiggle room to acquire new free agents without going over the cap. We need more team controlled players to step up. Kopech arrival would help. Hoping for a September call up.

 

Well if there was ever a year to not be able to afford free agents, this is it.

 

I'm hoping they get involved with some of the better non-closing relievers like Ziegler and the underrated Daniel Hudson. If they do that, they potentially have sufficient trade chips to get a DH on the trading block. It certainly wouldn't be a bat with the same potential impact as Encarnacion, but a reasonable alternative might be found, even if it's just a LHH to platoon with Young. ( I do hate platoons. )

[oldtimer]

There is not much wiggle room under the salary cap and it is unpalatable to go over the salary cap. I presume we still want Beltran, so making that move plus getting relief pitching is looking like our main goals in the off season. We may well need to shed some salaries to make that happen. We probably will be without Tazawa, Ziegler and Uehara and could do without Abad. In addition Hannigan and Holoday will be gone and Rutledge and Ortiz. I know Moon has provided these scenarios in the past, but now it is for real. Good luck to DD as the winter meetings will commence Sunday.

[Bellhorn04]

Going over the salary cap by up to 20 million is not any bigger of a deal than it was before. The really stiff penalties kick in when you go over the cap by 40 million or more.

[moonslav59]

Going over the salary cap by up to 20 million is not any bigger of a deal than it was before. The really stiff penalties kick in when you go over the cap by 40 million or more.

 

True, but the tax would go up to 50% next year. We only lose $20M in salary next winter, so if we're over by $20-39M next year, we'll be over the limit next year before even signing anybody else.

 

My guess is, Sox management will look to reset the tax either this winter or next.

 

50% + the 12% penalty for being over by more than $20M is a hefty 62% rate for 2018.

[oldtimer]

True, but the tax would go up to 50% next year. We only lose $20M in salary next winter, so if we're over by $20-39M next year, we'll be over the limit next year before even signing anybody else.

 

My guess is, Sox management will look to reset the tax either this winter or next.

 

50% + the 12% penalty for being over by more than $20M is a hefty 62% rate for 2018.

 

Agreed. It will put a crimp on any expensive signings by the Sox, especially facing salary arbitration going forward.

[moonslav59]

Agreed. It will put a crimp on any expensive signings by the Sox, especially facing salary arbitration going forward.

 

Yes, I forgot to mention arb raises after 2017:

 

Pomeranz 3rd arb out of 3

Kelly 3rd arb out of 3

RRoss 3 of 3

 

Bogey, Holt, Holaday & Workman 2 of 3

JBJ 2 of 4

 

Betts, ERod, Wright, Smith & Shaw 1st of 3

 

[harmony]

An SB Nation blogger on the Red Sox and third base:

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/12/1/13775444/pablo-sandoval-travis-shaw-yoan-moncada-boston-red-sox-third-base

[southpaw777]

An SB Nation blogger on the Red Sox and third base:

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/12/1/13775444/pablo-sandoval-travis-shaw-yoan-moncada-boston-red-sox-third-base

 

The article basically said nothing. Pablo and Shaw unles theres a trade. Nothing new

[moonslav59]

The article basically said nothing. Pablo and Shaw unles theres a trade. Nothing new

 

The thing that jumped out at me was the -28 WRC+ from the league average at 3B, and this included an .866 OPS from Shaw over the first two months of 2016! If he continues to hit like the final 4 months (.207/.270/.361), we're in deep doo doo!

 

Hoping for Pablo to come through is not my idea of hope. It's more like a prayer.

 

Hoping for Shaw to get hot to start the year again might be a better hope, so maybe by June, Moncada will be ready.

 

I guess if you put the hope and prayer together the odds improve that one can do well enough to bridge the gap, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

With the loss of Papi, I'm not sure we can carry any black holes anymore. Our offense at catcher is highly suspect as well, so we probably can't afford a negative 28 at 3B next year.

[Dojji]

The problem at 3B is that we do have solutions that need to be tried before we get aggressive and/or desperate. 3B is the sort of situation that you need to wait and maybe deal with in midseason when there's less confusion about what you have. If we can avoid making a move there and save our ammunition (prospects, roster space, cap space) for more pressing needs, that becomes the right play.

[moonslav59]

The problem at 3B is that we do have solutions that need to be tried before we get aggressive and/or desperate. 3B is the sort of situation that you need to wait and maybe deal with in midseason when there's less confusion about what you have. If we can avoid making a move there and save our ammunition (prospects, roster space, cap space) for more pressing needs, that becomes the right play.

 

Agreed.

 

With the limited luxury tax limit space, I think we need to focus on the bullpen and maybe a LH'd hitting DH-type.

 

Dumping some salary might help us fill all needs, but if we trade Buch, we open a new need- 6th starter.

[moonslav59]

No surprise. He was out of options...

 

The Red Sox announced that they won’t tender a contract to veteran catcher Bryan Holaday. The 29-year-old batted .231/.281/.359 with a pair of homers and seven doubles in 129 PAs between Texas and Boston this past season. The right-handed-hitting Holaday will bring a career .628 OPS and 28 percent caught-stealing rate to the free agent market as he looks to latch on elsewhere, presumably in a backup capacity. He’d been projected to earn $900K in arbitration this winter and comes with three years of team control to any club that signs him. Boston tendered contracts to all of its remaining arb-eligible players, tweets the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier. Boston’s 40-man roster is at 39 players.

 

MLBTRs says Brandon Workman is like to be non-tendered as well.

[moonslav59]

The Nationals, Astros, Red Sox, Rangers and Braves are at the forefront of the Chris Sale market, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman in his latest notes column.

[moonslav59]

The Yankees have spoken to other teams about third baseman Chase Headley and outfielder Brett Gardner but received minimal interest in that pair. Headley has $26MM in guaranteed money remaining on his deal and quietly rebounded from a disastrous start to post a solid overall season in the Bronx last year, while Gardner is owed a similar $25MM through 2018 and also has a club option for the 2019 season on his deal.

 

If we traded JBJ and others for Sale, could we afford to take on Headley and Gardner's contracts? Would it even be worth it?

 

I'd say no, even if they cost lower prospects.

[a700hitter]

The Nationals, Astros, Red Sox, Rangers and Braves are at the forefront of the Chris Sale market, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman in his latest notes column.

Wheel and Deal, Dave D!

[Spudboy]

What ever happened to Workman?

 

It's a shame.

[Bellhorn04]

What ever happened to Workman?

 

It's a shame.

 

I just read that the Red Sox reinstated Workman from the 60-day disabled list in November. I think that means there's still hope for his return.