A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Nick]

Thing with Clay is he is not merely costing us $13.5M. He will cost us $27M because he will only provide us with 1/2 season of production.

 

Only reason his name is coming up is because we are at the f***ING COMPETITIVE BALANCE LIMIT. Perhaps having a f***ing #6 pitcher making $13.5M is a luxury we can't afford. Stupid thing is doing same thing over and over and expecting different outcome.

[Hugh2]

Last year, MLB teams used an average of 11 different pitchers during the season. That includes teams like the Braves who used 16 pitchers and probably didn't need to use that many, but the point remains that teams need starting pitching depth. The median was also 11 pitchers.

 

The Jays used the fewest number which was 7.

Two teams used 8.

Seven teams used 9.

Four teams used 10.

Six teams used 11.

One team used 12.

Two teams used 13.

Three teams used 14.

Three teams used 15.

One team used 16.

 

So in otherwords at some point you're going to have to hope a guy like Owens, Johnson or even Haley win you a game. This is exactly why the small moves matter too. I'd love to see some depth options in the Pawtucket rotation.

[moonslav59]

I really don't know how our depth stacks up with other teams.

 

I am not concerned with having 5 or 6 pitchers ready to start the season. I am concerned with the inevitable injuries and/or underperformances that will occur as the season progresses. Do you think that the starting 5 or 6 are going to make every one of their scheduled starts all season long?

 

If we trade Buchholz, then we have a starting 5. What happens if we lose one of those starters for 1/2 a season due to injury? What happens if pitching at 100% in the WBC in March messes ERod up for 2-3 months or longer?

 

I totally get your concerns. They are valid.

 

However, let's not pretend our bullpen was good last year, just because we ended the season doing well. Our pen was mediocre at best this year, and we are losing Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa. To me, our pen is more important than out 6th starter. Putting so much trust in Kelly, Barnes, Ross and even to some extent Kimbrel is a big mistake.

 

Now, maybe we won't look to stay under the luxury limit this year, We may look to reset next year, but assuming we are trying this year, we won't be able to totally repair the pen with just $10M, or we'll have to trade something very good to get a low cost good pen arm.

 

There are ways to keep Buch and build the pen, but it's going to cost us.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Kimmi is right.

 

This team needs Buch. As strange as that sound coming from my mouth!

 

Every team should have 7, 8, and even 9 starting pitchers in the system.

 

I bet Buch makes 13-20 starts this year easy.

 

If he's healthy and doing well, bot significant "ifs", he could start 21-33, but why all of a sudden, do people believe he's going to come through?

 

What has changed?

 

Let some other team pay for the upside potential vs disappointment gamble.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports Sox are interested in Pedro Alvarez...

 

The powerful Alvarez hit .249/.322/.504 with 22 home runs in 376 plate appearances with Baltimore, and recorded the majors’ 20th-highest ISO (.255) among those with at least 350 PAs.

[moonslav59]

Word is the CWS wanted Dansby Swanson and won't take Ozzie Albies instead. I'm not sure what else is wanted as part of the package, but I have to think Moncada would be somewhat equal to Swanson.

 

Sale's $6.5M luxury tax cost is just what the Sox need.

 

We could then afford to trade Buch, assuming we don't lose one of our 6 starters in the trade. We save $7M by picking up Sale and trading Buch. That gives us ~$17M to sign someone like Pedro Alvarez or Adam Lind plus Ziegler or a Uehara types.

 

[cp176]

So are you suggesting that we move Moncada (again) without really knowing what we have? He is going to have to prove every scout that has ever seen him play wrong before I buy into this.

[raider_35_24]

Word is the CWS wanted Dansby Swanson and won't take Ozzie Albies instead. I'm not sure what else is wanted as part of the package, but I have to think Moncada would be somewhat equal to Swanson.

 

Sale's $6.5M luxury tax cost is just what the Sox need.

 

We could then afford to trade Buch, assuming we don't lose one of our 6 starters in the trade. We save $7M by picking up Sale and trading Buch. That gives us ~$17M to sign someone like Pedro Alvarez or Adam Lind plus Ziegler or a Uehara types.

 

 

i think i'd do it...we are talking about chris sale!

 

sale

price

porcello

 

damn that would be killer!

[moonslav59]

So are you suggesting that we move Moncada (again) without really knowing what we have? He is going to have to prove every scout that has ever seen him play wrong before I buy into this.

 

That's the point. If we wait, and he flops, then we don't get a Sale type for him.

 

I wouldn't think about trading Moncada, if we didn't have Devers.

 

I know the risk, but Sale is a known commodity and a sure ace.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

MLBTR reports Sox are interested in Pedro Alvarez...

 

The powerful Alvarez hit .249/.322/.504 with 22 home runs in 376 plate appearances with Baltimore, and recorded the majors’ 20th-highest ISO (.255) among those with at least 350 PAs.

 

I totally support this idea. This is probably my first choice to replace Ortiz, since I don't want to give up the draft pick for Encarncion.

[moonslav59]

I totally support this idea. This is probably my first choice to replace Ortiz, since I don't want to give up the draft pick for Encarncion.

 

I wouldn't pay EE what he will get, even if we didn't lose a draft pick.

[moonslav59]

I totally support this idea. This is probably my first choice to replace Ortiz, since I don't want to give up the draft pick for Encarncion.

 

Alvarez is not the only one. We really need a LH'd platoon with Young.

 

Moss:.791 career vs RHPs but .828 in 2016) If you pro-rate his 2016 numbers vs RHPs to 650 PAs: .223 47 98 (.303 OBP)

 

Kinda like Chris Carter, but Carter can hit both sides about like that: 2016 prorated to 650

vs RHPs: .222 38 84 (.316 OBP)

vs LHPs: .224 48 125 (.338 OBP)

 

Adam Lind: .849 OPS vs RHPs and can play 1B or LF. His .589 OPS vs LHPs is atrocious!

 

Morrison's .762 career splits vs RHPs is not what we need. He's 29, so maybe there's a chance of upside.

 

1B/3B P Alvarez .801 vs RHPs

1B/OF Moreland .778 career vs RHPs

1B LaRoche .831

1B Morneau .886 (.717 in 2016)

 

[Emp9]

Well, the only good news I can come up with this offseason is that Sox picked a good year to not afford going over the LT limit, because this FA market sucks. We all knew that though. We're gonna have to trade our way to a better team. Hope we find a market for Buch, maybe net a half-way decent reliever, maybe even shed a little bit of payroll out of the deal -for a best case scenario. Easier dreamt than done. It looks the Sox are one of the last teams standing for Sale, along with Texas I think. Another long shot. This is definitely a true test for DD, I just hope he doesn't do anything too stupid. I love our current OF, so I hope he doesn't mess with that. Doing the least, which to me wld be to try and sure-up the BP as much as possible under our current financial restraints, wouldn't be soo bad, we were a playoff team after all. Wait and pick-up a bat mid-season. Anyone expect any craziness this off-season?

[moonslav59]

For about a year, I have been saying the spending we did last winter was going to put us to the test with out future budget. I'm still not sure we are looking to reset this year, but if not this year than almost certainly next year we will.

 

Next year's FA market is much better, and we have $20M coming off the books in Buch and Young, so it makes sense to try to reset this winter.

from within the system.

 

It will be tough to try and fill all our needs with just about $10M of spending space, so we may have to get creative or pray we get some in system solutions

[cp176]

That's the point. If we wait, and he flops, then we don't get a Sale type for him.

 

I wouldn't think about trading Moncada, if we didn't have Devers.

 

I know the risk, but Sale is a known commodity and a sure ace.

 

 

I might just tend to agree with you if we had some idea what we have here in Moncada. I just don't agree with anyone who thinks that his performance to date is even remotely relevant to what he could be. We just don't know! I hate using all of these little catch phrase ******** expressions like high ceiling and low floor. Really! - but in Moncada's case, he may be a generational talent. We just don't know. I would keep him regardless of what anyone would offer. His ceiling might eventually be Trout like and I want him in Red Sox uni if it is.

[Emp9]

Sorry, trade-wise... does anyone expect anything crazy? Like Bogaerts for Sale type s***? LOL

[Kimmi]

So in otherwords at some point you're going to have to hope a guy like Owens, Johnson or even Haley win you a game. This is exactly why the small moves matter too. I'd love to see some depth options in the Pawtucket rotation.

 

Yup, those depth moves are important too.

 

Making it to the playoffs often comes down to those depth guys.

[Kimmi]

I totally get your concerns. They are valid.

 

However, let's not pretend our bullpen was good last year, just because we ended the season doing well. Our pen was mediocre at best this year, and we are losing Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa. To me, our pen is more important than out 6th starter. Putting so much trust in Kelly, Barnes, Ross and even to some extent Kimbrel is a big mistake.

 

Now, maybe we won't look to stay under the luxury limit this year, We may look to reset next year, but assuming we are trying this year, we won't be able to totally repair the pen with just $10M, or we'll have to trade something very good to get a low cost good pen arm.

 

There are ways to keep Buch and build the pen, but it's going to cost us.

 

I have never said that the pen is not important. It's just my belief that you don't have to spend big on a bullpen to build a good one. We already have a perfectly capable closer. We need a solid 8th inning guy and maybe one other reliever, or we can just sign an 8th inning guy and go with what we have.

[moonslav59]

I might just tend to agree with you if we had some idea what we have here in Moncada. I just don't agree with anyone who thinks that his performance to date is even remotely relevant to what he could be. We just don't know! I hate using all of these little catch phrase ******** expressions like high ceiling and low floor. Really! - but in Moncada's case, he may be a generational talent. We just don't know. I would keep him regardless of what anyone would offer. His ceiling might eventually be Trout like and I want him in Red Sox uni if it is.

 

Moncada's 10 game MLB sample size this year has nothing to do with my opinion. Moncada ise a true top prospect. I have suggested trading him for Quintana long before his showing in the bigs this year.

 

I realize the risk is huge risk. Moncada could be a generational talent.

 

It's my opinion Sale already is, and at $6.5M off the luxury limit, he could help us acquire other talent in the years to come. I also have very high hopes for Devers. I'm a little worried about Moncada's defense and what position he might eventually get to be a decent fielder.

[moonslav59]

I have never said that the pen is not important. It's just my belief that you don't have to spend big on a bullpen to build a good one. We already have a perfectly capable closer. We need a solid 8th inning guy and maybe one other reliever, or we can just sign an 8th inning guy and go with what we have.

 

Fair enough. Signing a good 8th inning guy will probably cost the $10M we have to spend.

 

[cp176]

Moncada's 10 game MLB sample size this year has nothing to do with my opinion. Moncada ise a true top prospect. I have suggested trading him for Quintana long before his showing in the bigs this year.

 

I realize the risk is huge risk. Moncada could be a generational talent.

 

It's my opinion Sale already is, and at $6.5M off the luxury limit, he could help us acquire other talent in the years to come. I also have very high hopes for Devers. I'm a little worried about Moncada's defense and what position he might eventually get to be a decent fielder.

 

We agree, I hope to disagree, I would trade Moncada for no one. We are not desperate. You want to trade Devers, maybe JBJ, I get that but not someone with the potential that this kid has. Once again, we are not desperate.

[moonslav59]

We agree, I hope to disagree, I would trade Moncada for no one. We are not desperate. You want to trade Devers, maybe JBJ, I get that but not someone with the potential that this kid has. Once again, we are not desperate.

 

II get your point, but guys like Sale don't become available at $6.5M.... ever.

[Wade Boggs]

I have never said that the pen is not important. It's just my belief that you don't have to spend big on a bullpen to build a good one. We already have a perfectly capable closer. We need a solid 8th inning guy and maybe one other reliever, or we can just sign an 8th inning guy and go with what we have.

 

I wouldn't bring Koji or Ziegler back. One is over 40 and will get hurt multiple times and land on the DL twice. The other is not a power arm. Barnes and Kelly are not them players. Smith doesn't come back if your lucky until after all star break.

You could trade for Robertson or Davis but without going over the tax it might be hard. The bullpen is not very good. Plus even if they did bring Koji back, he can't pitch on back2back days at his age.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I would be willing to trade J.Bradley for Sale, but I wouldn't be willing to include Moncada in the deal (I would include one or two lesser prospects but not Devers, Kopech, or Groome). I would trade Moncada for Sale but I wouldn't include J.Bradley in the deal (I would include one or two lesser prospects but not Devers, Kopech, or Groome).

 

Starting pitchers are so fragile, we already know that Sale has experienced a decline in velocity, a warning sign. If the Red Sox overpay for Sale, and then something goes wrong with him, the mistake could affect the Red Sox organization for years.

 

In retrospect, if DD didn't overpay for Kimbrel (a trade I didn't agree with) and didn't trade for Pomeranz, who didn't help the Red Sox at all (an ERA+ of 100), the Red Sox would have the assets to acquire Sale: build a trade around Espinoza and Margot. Thus far DD has not exactly impressed with his decisions on the trade market.

[Wade Boggs]

We agree, I hope to disagree, I would trade Moncada for no one. We are not desperate. You want to trade Devers, maybe JBJ, I get that but not someone with the potential that this kid has. Once again, we are not desperate.

 

I don't agree . If you have a chance for Chris Sale as long as you can keep Betts , XB and Beni you do it. I can name 5 pitchers I would trade him for.

[a700hitter]

I would be willing to trade J.Bradley for Sale, but I wouldn't be willing to include Moncada in the deal (I would include one or two lesser prospects but not Devers, Kopech, or Groome). I would trade Moncada for Sale but I wouldn't include J.Bradley in the deal (I would include one or two lesser prospects but not Devers, Kopech, or Groome).

I don't think what you are offering gets it done. Sale is very valuable because he is an underpaid star.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I don't think what you are offering gets it done. Sale is very valuable because he is an underpaid star.

 

I agree, my offer doesn't get it done. Nevertheless, I would like to see the Red Sox draw a line in the sand and then move on. There is only so much that I'm willing to give up for a guy who has experienced a decline in velocity and has a violent delivery.

[raider_35_24]

I don't think what you are offering gets it done. Sale is very valuable because he is an underpaid star.

 

Exactly...and one of the best underpaid player in the league....sale is one of the best pitchers in the league.

[Wade Boggs]

I would be willing to trade J.Bradley for Sale, but I wouldn't be willing to include Moncada in the deal (I would include one or two lesser prospects but not Devers, Kopech, or Groome). I would trade Moncada for Sale but I wouldn't include J.Bradley in the deal (I would include one or two lesser prospects but not Devers, Kopech, or Groome).

 

Starting pitchers are so fragile, we already know that Sale has experienced a decline in velocity, a warning sign. If the Red Sox overpay for Sale, and then something goes wrong with him, the mistake could affect the Red Sox organization for years.

 

In retrospect, if DD didn't overpay for Kimbrel (a trade I didn't agree with) and didn't trade for Pomeranz, who didn't help the Red Sox at all (an ERA+ of 100), the Red Sox would have the assets to acquire Sale: build a trade around Espinoza and Margot. Thus far DD has not exactly impressed with his decisions on the trade market.

 

If he didn't trade for Kimbrel who would have been the closer. We both have the same last name. I hate that. I'm only joking. Lol

[raider_35_24]

who knows? may be we are going after verlander? and not sale.