Postseason Happenings 2016

[cp176]

Good for you - You are experiencing the same feelings that some of us here felt in the fall of 1967. I was a junior in high school and with all of the stuff going around me at that time - school-girls-athletics - time still just kind of stood still. I could not wait for the next game.

[cp176]

More importantly, how's your golf game this September?

 

 

Not bad but I always could use a few more strokes when I play in those net tournaments!

[Wade Boggs]

The Jays have good hitting and good pitching, so I think the Sox and Jays are a good bet for the playoffs. Then it looks like a dogfight among the Orioles, Tigers, and maybe the Yankees.

 

Right now the Sox pitching looks pretty good. Buchholz flubbed his last start Sunday in Toronto, but has been good, and the other four--especially Price and Porcello--have been consistent over the last month or so. The bullpen was very good on the 9 game road trip, but never more so that giving up 2 runs in 6 innings to save that rubber game win at Toronto. I would not say we have shut down bullpen, but right now Farrell has some pretty good options in Kinbrel, Ziegler, Uehara, Kelly, Ross, Abad, et al. He used 8 relievers Sunday in Toronto. Team ERA right now is 4.08, 5th best in the AL. 3d best is Houston at 4.03.

 

Hitting is excellent overall even though sometimes they can be beat. Thus the three losses on the road trip were 3-2, 2-1, and 1-0.

 

All of the above sounds good, but it's also true that any team can get hot.

 

After the Rays the Jays have a mini WC trip through LAA/SEA. Not going to be easy. They aren't winning all of them road games. The M's are hot now. I agree its very important to have a very good week and try to open this up a little. The next home stand for the O's is TB/AZ/Bos. I thought Dave O said that last night on NESN. NYY isn't going to win the East. Just get Baltimore out of the way and concentrate on Toronto.

[Slasher9]

i never ever count the MFY out. even though i want to. really really bad. but ive seen this movie before....

[SoxnCycles]

i never ever count the MFY out. even though i want to. really really bad. but ive seen this movie before....

 

To quote Eck from last night's game: "They're about to fall out of the tree they're in".

 

This last run got them close, but I don't think they're going to get in.

[greenwell]

i never ever count the MFY out. even though i want to. really really bad. but ive seen this movie before....

 

Agreed. Even if they don't make the playoffs they have an opportunity to seriously f up the sox chances, i.e. let the Jays and Orioles walk all over them and beat up on the sox.

[moonslav59]

BOS +2 on TOR for Division

 

TOR +1 on BAL for 1st WC slot

 

BAL +1 on 2nd WC slot

 

DET -1

NYY -2

SEA -2.5

 

[Maxbialystock]

BOS +2 on TOR for Division

 

TOR +1 on BAL for 1st WC slot

 

BAL +1 on 2nd WC slot

 

DET -1

NYY -2

SEA -2.5

 

 

On top of which, the Sox have the 5th best ERA in the AL (and aren't far off the 3d best) and the best run scoring in MLB and the best road record in the AL. Nothing guaranteed, but right now I like our chances.

[Thunder]

Good for you - You are experiencing the same feelings that some of us here felt in the fall of 1967. I was a junior in high school and with all of the stuff going around me at that time - school-girls-athletics - time still just kind of stood still. I could not wait for the next game.

 

One problem with that: the next girl that hangs out around me will be the first.

[Kimmi]

MNF matchups have been dog s*** since they put the playoff teams on Sunday night. Monday and Thursday night games are usually terrible.

 

Not that I'm much of a football fan, but football season isn't even on the radar until baseball season is over, regardless of whether the Sox are in it or not.

[Kimmi]

i never ever count the MFY out. even though i want to. really really bad. but ive seen this movie before....

 

Yup. They need to seriously just go away.

[S5Dewey]

To put the best spin possible on the situation after Tuesday night's loss.....

 

On Sunday night the Sox had a two game lead on both the O's and the Jays. After Monday's and Tuesday's games they still do, and we're two games closer to the end of the season. We didn't gain any ground, but we didn't lose any either.

[moonslav59]

To put the best spin possible on the situation after Tuesday night's loss.....

 

On Sunday night the Sox had a two game lead on both the O's and the Jays. After Monday's and Tuesday's games they still do, and we're two games closer to the end of the season. We didn't gain any ground, but we didn't lose any either.

 

True enough.

 

One tough inning.

[Slasher9]

football season isn't even on the radar until baseball season is over, regardless of whether the Sox are in it or not.

 

this. 1 billion percent. and i am a football (go Pats) fan.

[Bellhorn04]

I follow lots of other sports with interest, but nothing comes remotely close to my obsession with the Sox. I can't even explain why that is.

[Nick]

To put the best spin possible on the situation after Tuesday night's loss.....

 

On Sunday night the Sox had a two game lead on both the O's and the Jays. After Monday's and Tuesday's games they still do, and we're two games closer to the end of the season. We didn't gain any ground, but we didn't lose any either.

 

Very good point. Other teams have 2 less games to make up ground. We don't have to gain ground, although that would be helpful, but we just need not to lose ground.

[Slasher9]

Mini update:

Magic Number = 17

[moonslav59]

AL East

 

BOS

BAL -1

TOR -2

NYY -4

 

WC

BOS +3 on the last WC slot

 

BAL +1

TOR -

DET -1

SEA -1.5

NYY -2

[oldtimer]

As we start the Yankee series tonight it occurs to me that all the major clubs are in transition year to year. Even if we can end the Yankees thoughts about making the playoffs this year, it is clear that we will be competing with them for FA's and trades going into 2017. The Yankees will be losing Teixeria and possibly Headley with $36,000,000 coming off the payroll and really only have two high cost pitchers on the roster today in Sabathia and Tanaka. I assume they will keep MaCanns to go along with Sanchez. As a minimum they will be going after another SP , RP's a 1st and possibly a 3rd baseman.

 

The point being it will be a very competitive market for us out there for SP and even our FA relief pitchers will be in demand. Best to fill in from within wherever possible.

[Maxbialystock]

As we start the Yankee series tonight it occurs to me that all the major clubs are in transition year to year. Even if we can end the Yankees thoughts about making the playoffs this year, it is clear that we will be competing with them for FA's and trades going into 2017. The Yankees will be losing Teixeria and possibly Headley with $36,000,000 coming off the payroll and really only have two high cost pitchers on the roster today in Sabathia and Tanaka. I assume they will keep MaCanns to go along with Sanchez. As a minimum they will be going after another SP , RP's a 1st and possibly a 3rd baseman.

 

The point being it will be a very competitive market for us out there for SP and even our FA relief pitchers will be in demand. Best to fill in from within wherever possible.

 

To me our one big liability right now is youth/inexperience. We have a decent to good rotation--see moonslav's stats for the 2d half of this season--and a bullpen that's rounding into shape. The lineup, while inconsistent, outscored everyone else in MLB this year. Waiting in the wings are both Benintendi and Moncada. In other words, I don't think DD needs to make any great overhaul of the roster this offseason. Of course, we could also try to get the great Jacoby Ellsbury back here to replace JBJ in CF. 3B is an issue, but hardly a disaster.

[Spudboy]

Why in the world would the Sox ever consider replacing JBJ with Ellsbury?

[illinoisredsox]

To me our one big liability right now is youth/inexperience. We have a decent to good rotation--see moonslav's stats for the 2d half of this season--and a bullpen that's rounding into shape. The lineup, while inconsistent, outscored everyone else in MLB this year. Waiting in the wings are both Benintendi and Moncada. In other words, I don't think DD needs to make any great overhaul of the roster this offseason. Of course, we could also try to get the great Jacoby Ellsbury back here to replace JBJ in CF. 3B is an issue, but hardly a disaster.

 

I've mentioned this a few times. Unlike 2013, this is not a roster replete with guys who have through this before. Ortiz and Pedroia among the position players, Price and Porcello among the starting pitchers, Uehara and Tazawa in the pen (and neither is near what they were that year). That's it among players who had roles in postseason drives.

 

Bogaerts was a bit player in 13. Bradley had been sent down and was not brought back up for the pennant run. Betts has played only for last place teams.

Edited September 15, 2016 by illinoisredsox

[illinoisredsox]

Why in the world would the Sox ever consider replacing JBJ with Ellsbury?

 

Well, we certainly could use the Ellsbury of 2011 (although Betts is doing a pretty darn good imitation offensively so far).

[moonslav59]

I've mentioned this a few times. Unlike 2013, this is not a roster replete with guys who have through this before. Ortiz and Pedroia among the position players, Price and Porcello among the starting pitchers, Uehara and Tazawa in the pen (and neither is near what they were that year). That's it among players who had roles in postseason drives.

 

Bogaerts was a bit player in 13. Bradley had been sent down and was not brought back up for the pennant run. Betts has played only for last place teams.

 

Young has some "history" (56 PAs and a 1.135 OPS in the playoffs- including 5 HRS!.

 

HanRam has a 1.031 OPS in the playoffs in 53 PAs with 9 RBI in 13 games.

 

Bogey has the one year (34 PAs and an .893 OPS)

 

Aaron Hill has an HR in 18 ABs. Hanigan has 23 hopelessly bad PAs.

 

Kimbrel has been in the playoffs 3 years and has a 1.35 ERA (0.600 WHIP) in about 7 IP. Buch has 26 IP and a 4.21 ERA.

 

 

 

 

 

[Kimmi]

“There is no evidence that postseason experience (and I attempted five different definitions of ‘experience’) has any effect on players in the postseason over and above their previously established talent levels,” Carleton wrote. “The idea that postseason experience confers some sort of advantage on a player or team is not supported by the data. If it were true, we would see some sort of departure from what we would otherwise expect based on regular-season stats. It’s not there.”

[cp176]

I've mentioned this a few times. Unlike 2013, this is not a roster replete with guys who have through this before. Ortiz and Pedroia among the position players, Price and Porcello among the starting pitchers, Uehara and Tazawa in the pen (and neither is near what they were that year). That's it among players who had roles in postseason drives.

 

Bogaerts was a bit player in 13. Bradley had been sent down and was not brought back up for the pennant run. Betts has played only for last place teams.

 

I'm really not sure that this makes much of a difference. With youth, if the talent is there, there is a certain hunger that comes along as well. We have just enough experience. I like the youthful talent.

[moonslav59]

“There is no evidence that postseason experience (and I attempted five different definitions of ‘experience’) has any effect on players in the postseason over and above their previously established talent levels,” Carleton wrote. “The idea that postseason experience confers some sort of advantage on a player or team is not supported by the data. If it were true, we would see some sort of departure from what we would otherwise expect based on regular-season stats. It’s not there.”

 

Agreed, and the whole "clutch hitter" thing is a big sham (except for Papi, who is for real).

[Spudboy]

“There is no evidence that postseason experience (and I attempted five different definitions of ‘experience’) has any effect on players in the postseason over and above their previously established talent levels,” Carleton wrote. “The idea that postseason experience confers some sort of advantage on a player or team is not supported by the data. If it were true, we would see some sort of departure from what we would otherwise expect based on regular-season stats. It’s not there.”

 

Thank Gawd for this post.

 

I may have to become a Stat Geek.

[oldtimer]

This was one of these bad news, good news, bad news , good news nights at Fenway. The bad news struck almost immediately with e-Rod seemingly not up to the moment of being in such a big game at Fenway. His location was bad from the outset forcing JF to pull him early. JF clearly wanted to save his better BP pieces for a more likely win scenario so went first with Hembree, who has decent stuff but also issued a walk, couldn't hold a man on so quickly got stole on, cross-up the catcher with a very high fastball and then gave up a run without a hit on a sac fly. Oddly enough, the good news was the second tier relief was unique enough to hold the Yankees off the board the rest of the way, but not without scary moments.

 

The second set of bad news was the lethargy of our dugout and hitters. JF tends to show no emotion (fire) and Tanaka can be tough but big Papi doubled and was stranded, we loaded the bases with one out and the 3 ,4 hitters could manage just a sac fly for a run, Beni doubled to lead off an inning and the top of the order couldn't bring him in, Leon got up with 2 on and took a called 3rd strike on a pitch that clearly got the plate (he has done that before). Otherwise nothing positive with the exception of Bib Papi's home run. Hoped that would energize the team. Then came the good news. After Hill, pinch hitting for JBJ looked bad leading off the ninth, Young hitting for Beni was hit by a Yankee pitcher. They went to their closer and Pedey, bless his heart, came through and the atmosphere changed. Bogaerts didn't get it done, but big Papi got his third hit and an RBI setting it up for Betts. Nothing big there but he kept it going to Hanley, who did the improbable by hitting a homer to win the game.

 

Wow, what a crazy night and with Baltimore losing put the Red Sox back in a good position. Now Buchholz needs to show his experience tonight.

[Slasher9]

Quick update:

this morning feels awesome. not much sleep last night but.... who cares?

1 out bottom 9, no one on....down by 3 runs. WIN. one of the great comebacks in Sox history.