Postseason Happenings 2016

[User Name]

Sox just need to keep taking care of business and beat up on the s***** teams. The series in Toronto will be yuuuuuge...

 

Corrected for accuracy.

[sk7326]

A couple of bad innings ruined this weekend - at the same time, they hit the Royals pretty well ... better than teams are generally used to. Also Bogaerts got the good part of the bat on a lot of pitches.

 

Really, the "playoff rotation" looks okay ... a couple reliable innings hosses, and a couple of guys you should be able to get through the order a couple of times. But finding a pen that can click.

[mvp 78]

Corrected for accuracy.

 

Not if they get swept by the Rays.

[Kimmi]

Toronto is playing Baltimore.

 

One way or the other, that's good for us.

 

Of course, we need to take care of our own business.

[oldtimer]

Last night we got some hitting from Shaw and he has hit some balls hard of late but without results. Holt hits well when he is healthy and somewhat rested and he produced last night and Hanley, who has been hot and cold all year seems to be in a hotter streak. Young may be feeling better with a few games under his belt. Good for the Sox if they can get contributions up and down the lineup.

[Jack Flap]

Can't say I really believe in this team going all the way at this point. They have all the raw materials to be great, but they've shown a penchant for failing to get the job done when it matters most and having things go wrong at the most inopportune time, keeping them from going on any kind of extended run or maintaining any real momentum for very long. You have to think they should be comfortably in first right now when you look at all the games the bullpen has pissed away, or games like the last two where they couldn't get a big hit to save their lives (against really s***** teams, no less). That 2013-type fire, where you felt like they were never really out of any game, just isn't there right now.

 

(Sorry for the negativity...watching the Sox offense make Edwin f'ing Jackson look like an ace just puts me in a bad mood.)

Edited September 6, 2016 by Jack Flap

[mvp 78]

The Sox are beating up on bad pitching and struggling in low scoring games. It's a sign of a good regular season team that will lose quietly in the postseason.

 

Pythagorus hates them!

[Slasher9]

UPDATE:

25 GAMES TO GO

15 Road / 10 Home

 

3 in Toronto coming up will be pretty big. actually....every game is pretty big.

 

 

DIVISION:

2nd in Division (1 GB of Toronto)

 

WC

1st WC spot

1 Game ahead of Baltimore & Detroit / 2GA Houston

[bosoxmal]

There is on major problem with our offense. CLUTCH HITTING. It hasn't been there for most of the year. How many times have we come from a 9th inning deficit? Or an 8th or 7th inning deficit for that matter. Not very often. It's nice to enoy an 11-2 win. Lots of fun. But how about a 2 or 3 runner on bomb late in the game. Isn't happening. Edited September 6, 2016 by bosoxmal

[S5Dewey]

There is on major problem with our offense. CLUTCH HITTING. It hasn't been there for most of the year. How many times have we come from a 9th inning deficit? Or an 8th or 7th inning deficit for that matter. Not very often. It's nice to enoy an 11-2 win. Lots of fun. But how about a 2 or 3 runner on bomb late in the game. Isn't happening.

 

Yep. I agree it does seem that way. I'm torn on this topic. I remember reading that even Bill James has said that there's no such thing as "clutch hitting" (unless your name is David Ortiz). It's simply a matter of, say, a person who's hitting .300 getting one of his three hits in ten in a situation with people on base. A coincidence.

OTOH, wouldn't one think that some Red Sox players would occasionally get those hits late in the game with people on base?

 

Although I have no major league experience it's been my amateur experience that some players are more liable than others to get hits in big situations, though.

[moonslav59]

The Sox are beating up on bad pitching and struggling in low scoring games. It's a sign of a good regular season team that will lose quietly in the postseason.

 

Pythagorus hates them!

 

We have beaten some really good pitchers this year.

 

We're 43-40 vs teams with a winning percentage.

 

We have an .804 OPS in our 83 games against winning teams.

 

We have an .837 OPS in our 54 games against teams with a losing record.

 

 

I do share your concern about losing close games, making key errors and misplays when it counts, and not getting many clutch hits lately.

 

Things can change on a dime come playoff season. Clutch hitting is not a sustainable skill set that players either have or don't have. Even if it is, it's not something that is consistent and can be projected.

[Spudboy]

Hello.

 

Just to fill the new people in ( mostly BDC guys ), talksox has gone over "Clutch" several times while I have been a member. For the most part, members are in agreement that "Clucth" does not exist.

 

That good hitters get more hits in "Clutch" situations than lesser hitters. What Moon say is what is generally believed here.

 

I bring this up with hopes that we won't have yet another boring and protracted discussion on "Clutch".

 

Rico Petrocelli was clutch, Davis Ortiz is clutch, etc. But only to the extent that they are more productive hitters in general.

 

Carry on.

[Slasher9]

it's much easier to do your job well when you are relaxed and confident. being able to be relaxed and confident at a crucial situation in a game (see: late and close) will allow you to have a better chance at succeeding than many other people that are wary and not relaxed.

being clutch is an emotion not a physical thing. Ortiz is definitely clutch.

[oldtimer]

We have beaten some really good pitchers this year.

 

We're 43-40 vs teams with a winning percentage.

 

We have an .804 OPS in our 83 games against winning teams.

 

We have an .837 OPS in our 54 games against teams with a losing record.

 

 

I do share your concern about losing close games, making key errors and misplays when it counts, and not getting many clutch hits lately.

 

Things can change on a dime come playoff season. Clutch hitting is not a sustainable skill set that players either have or don't have. Even if it is, it's not something that is consistent and can be projected.

 

On the other hand during the last two losses, our OPS has been very poor. We managed to lose two game in which we got very good pitching performances because we didn't hit well nor did we hit when it counted. Statistics tend to work for the average case but in specific cases don't mean much.

[S5Dewey]

Yeah. We kinda beat it to death over there too. But I think it's inevitable that the topic will come up occasionally when we start talking about RISP.

 

It's all good.

[S5Dewey]

...but while we're on that topic... :D

 

This team has lost FOUR Freakin' games on "walk-off errors"! I'll admit to being old school and putting a lot of emphasis on defense. That's why I find that statistic (FOUR GAMES!!??) to be totally unacceptable. Especially when an error is generally considered to be a misplay on a ball that is a routine play. Making a throwing error in a situation like that is what we on BDC referred to as 'chocking', which is the polar opposite of being 'clutch' - if clutch even exists.

[bosoxmal]

Hello.

 

Just to fill the new people in ( mostly BDC guys ), talksox has gone over "Clutch" several times while I have been a member. For the most part, members are in agreement that "Clucth" does not exist.

 

That good hitters get more hits in "Clutch" situations than lesser hitters. What Moon say is what is generally believed here.

 

I bring this up with hopes that we won't have yet another boring and protracted discussion on "Clutch".

 

Rico Petrocelli was clutch, Davis Ortiz is clutch, etc. But only to the extent that they are more productive hitters in general.

 

Carry on.

So, you are saying there is no such thing as "hitting in the clutch"? Nonsense. If you read the post carefully, I am not talking about clutch hitters. I am talking about the team hitting in the clutch. There's a very big difference.

[Slasher9]

...but while we're on that topic... :D

 

This team has lost FOUR Freakin' games on "walk-off errors"! I'll admit to being old school and putting a lot of emphasis on defense. That's why I find that statistic (FOUR GAMES!!??) to be totally unacceptable. Especially when an error is generally considered to be a misplay on a ball that is a routine play. Making a throwing error in a situation like that is what we on BDC referred to as 'chocking', which is the polar opposite of being 'clutch' - if clutch even exists.

+1,000 points for "chocking".

[greenwell]

...but while we're on that topic... :D

 

This team has lost FOUR Freakin' games on "walk-off errors"! I'll admit to being old school and putting a lot of emphasis on defense. That's why I find that statistic (FOUR GAMES!!??) to be totally unacceptable. Especially when an error is generally considered to be a misplay on a ball that is a routine play. Making a throwing error in a situation like that is what we on BDC referred to as 'chocking', which is the polar opposite of being 'clutch' - if clutch even exists.

 

I wanted to defend the sox by saying at least one of those they were going to lose the game anyway since on Sunday it would have been 2nd and 3rd with noone out without the error. Then I looked at the fielding stats. The sox have made 69 errors, so I would guess roughly 35 came on the road. Of those they made 4 errrors in the last inning of a tie game, that's not good.

[mvp 78]

I wanted to defend the sox by saying at least one of those they were going to lose the game anyway since on Sunday it would have been 2nd and 3rd with noone out without the error. Then I looked at the fielding stats. The sox have made 69 errors, so I would guess roughly 35 came on the road. Of those they made 4 errrors in the last inning of a tie game, that's not good.

 

35 errors on the road? Each inning would average about 4 errors at this point. The fact that the record was tied is meaningless.

[sk7326]

So, you are saying there is no such thing as "hitting in the clutch"? Nonsense. If you read the post carefully, I am not talking about clutch hitters. I am talking about the team hitting in the clutch. There's a very big difference.

 

The team has had some trouble hitting the last two games. Both parks are bad for hitters generally, but clearly the Sox should (and did Friday and Saturday) transcend that. Given the competition on the mound, yesterday was vexing.

[oldtimer]

The team has had some trouble hitting the last two games. Both parks are bad for hitters generally, but clearly the Sox should (and did Friday and Saturday) transcend that. Given the competition on the mound, yesterday was vexing.

 

There were tomorrows and they saw the team right the ship. Shaw added some punch. Some of the pitching we had faced was better than you gave them credit for.

[Maxbialystock]

Clutch, smutch. The only truly "clutch" hitter on this team is Ortiz and that's because he has an OPS over 1000. And let's not forget that the opposing pitcher has a lot to do with how well we hit. For those who have forgotten, the Sox great success in the 2013 playoffs was due primarily to the great pitching--an ERA of 2.00 over 16 games. Yes, there were a few "clutch" hits, but overall not many hits at all.

 

This is a young team, especially in playoff experience or for that matter pennant race in September experience.

 

But right now I like what I see overall. The rotation is worlds better than earlier in the season. The hitting is stuttering, but the talent is there. And the bullpen is showing definite signs they want to be reliable. The outfield defense is pretty good, but the left side of the infield lacks range. Right side, Pedroia, is still good and HanRam is good enough. Catching is a tad better than we should expect because of all the turnover last year and again this year. I love moonslav's constant reminder: other teams have weaknesses too.

 

While I do like where this team is, I also think there are no guarantees. And, quite frankly, who the hell wants them? It's the imperfections that make this such a great game.

Edited September 8, 2016 by Maxbialystock

[Slasher9]

quick update.....

ALL ALONE IN FIRST PLACE BOYS (and girls).

a much needed day off today and then it's slaughter some blue jays time......

[moonslav59]

The only truly "clutch" hitter on this team is Ortiz and that's because he has an OPS over 1000.

 

Papi is a legend in the playoffs, but many of our players have not had the chance to prove they are "clutch" or not.

 

Here's a look at regular season "clutch"- a term I feel is not really a skill set.

 

Player Career OPS/ Late & Close OPS (career)

 

(listed from least "clutch" to most "clutch")

 

HRam .858/.759 (-.099)

Pedey .812/.754 (-.068)

Ortiz .931/.867 (-.064)

Betts .856/.849 (-.007)

J B J .725/.727 (+.002)

Bogy .746/.771 (+.025)

[sk7326]

Ortiz is a legend - and even the legend has had multiple postseason series where he was genuinely awful ... it is hard to discuss clutch because it just degenerates into a fiesta of confirmation bias

[mvp 78]

The only truly "clutch" hitter on this team is Ortiz and that's because he has an OPS over 1000.

 

Papi is a legend in the playoffs, but many of our players have not had the chance to prove they are "clutch" or not.

 

Here's a look at regular season "clutch"- a term I feel is not really a skill set.

 

Player Career OPS/ Late & Close OPS (career)

 

(listed from least "clutch" to most "clutch")

 

HRam .858/.759 (-.099)

Pedey .812/.754 (-.068)

Ortiz .931/.867 (-.064)

Betts .856/.849 (-.007)

J B J .725/.727 (+.002)

Bogy .746/.771 (+.025)

 

The tough part on late and close stats for Papi is that he'll face additional LOOGY's which would push his numbers down since he's better at hitting RHP.

[a700hitter]

For confirmation regarding clutch players (or as U.N. say non-chokers), I talk to and listen to current and former players. Confirming whether a player is clutch or not by using statistics is completely unreliable. Talk to the players. That is where you will get your answer. Clutch is largely the mental/confidence aspect of the game. They will tell you who they wanted to have the ball or at bat for their teams. They will tell you who they feared on other teams. It isn't always just the best player. A lot of Mets of the late 60's and early 70's thought that Koosman was the better big game pitcher than Seaver (who had the clearly better stats).

 

As Yogi said, ninety percent of the game is half mental.

[S5Dewey]

For confirmation regarding clutch players (or as U.N. say non-chokers), I talk to and listen to current and former players. Confirming whether a player is clutch or not by using statistics is completely unreliable. Talk to the players. That is where you will get your answer. Clutch is largely the mental/confidence aspect of the game. They will tell you who they wanted to have the ball or at bat for their teams. They will tell you who they feared on other teams. It isn't always just the best player. A lot of Mets of the late 60's and early 70's thought that Koosman was the better big game pitcher than Seaver (who had the clearly better stats).

 

From my playing experience, ^^THIS!^^

[sk7326]

For confirmation regarding clutch players (or as U.N. say non-chokers), I talk to and listen to current and former players. Confirming whether a player is clutch or not by using statistics is completely unreliable. Talk to the players. That is where you will get your answer. Clutch is largely the mental/confidence aspect of the game. They will tell you who they wanted to have the ball or at bat for their teams. They will tell you who they feared on other teams. It isn't always just the best player. A lot of Mets of the late 60's and early 70's thought that Koosman was the better big game pitcher than Seaver (who had the clearly better stats).

 

As Yogi said, ninety percent of the game is half mental.

 

A fiesta of conformation bias and mythmaking ...

 

David Ortiz is justifiably a legend who had sub .700 OPSs in 7 of the 17 postseason series he played in. (and 3 different ones where he had a batting average below .100 - and one of those series containing one of those legendary clutch moments)

 

Alex Rodriguez is notably unclutch while being absolutely the runaway best player in a World Series run

 

David Price gets called un-clutch while coming out of the pen and saving the highest leverage spot of his career 8 years ago.

 

Players are multitudes - we (and they) see what we want to see.