Postseason Happenings 2016

[Dojji]

“There is no evidence that postseason experience (and I attempted five different definitions of ‘experience’) has any effect on players in the postseason over and above their previously established talent levels,” Carleton wrote. “The idea that postseason experience confers some sort of advantage on a player or team is not supported by the data. If it were true, we would see some sort of departure from what we would otherwise expect based on regular-season stats. It’s not there.”

 

Bullwhacky. THe problem is it applies in ways that are not easily measured in retrospect. The effect is not so much on the player themselves but on the team around them, and the reason it's so hard to detect is that any team will try to bring in playoff-veteran players if they're in the playoff hunt, because they KNOW it makes a difference to have players who have been there before and can tell the other guys what to expect, meaning a control group is hard to source

 

One example of what I'm rambling about -- When the Red Sox were flailing against the Guardians in 07, and looked like they were going to crap out, the veterans from 04 (Tek, Papi, Schill, etc) called a players-only meeting and settled things down, got people playing with confidence again, squeezed out a win, and got the team rolling again. The result was not improved performance, but preventing UNDERperformance, which is damn hard to measure statistically.

Edited September 16, 2016 by Dojji

[Maxbialystock]

Why in the world would the Sox ever consider replacing JBJ with Ellsbury?

 

I was being sarcastic. To me Ellsbury and ARod are exhibits A and B in demonstrating the downfall of the Yankees. Way too much money for way too little performance.

[S5Dewey]

This has to be a nail in the coffin - a devastating loss - for the Yankees and a great win for the Sox. The Y's came in knowing that they had to have at least 3 of the 4 games. They need to be gaining ground. Now in order to do that they need to win all three remaining games. Not impossible, but improbable.

 

Had the game ended after 8 innings the Sox would have a one game lead over the O's and Toronto and the Yankees would be surging. Now we're comfortable again @ 2 knowing that even in the worst case scenario the Sox will be in first place come Saturday morning.

 

Another win tonight = another nail in the coffin and every nail in the Yankee's coffin is a very good thing.

[Thunder]

I remember OB saying something last night during Ellsbury's first AB about how he hasn't started in some of the biggest games the Yankees have played in over the last two years, like the games a couple weeks ago that got them back in the hunt, and the Wild Card game last year. Girardi doesn't trust his ability in the clutch, and IIRC, he didn't do much for us in the clutch in 2013.

[S5Dewey]

Bullwhacky. THe problem is it applies in ways that are not easily measured in retrospect. The effect is not so much on the player themselves but on the team around them, and the reason it's so hard to detect is that any team will try to bring in playoff-veteran players if they're in the playoff hunt, because they KNOW it makes a difference to have players who have been there before and can tell the other guys what to expect, meaning a control group is hard to source

 

One example of what I'm rambling about -- When the Red Sox were flailing against the Guardians in 07, and looked like they were going to crap out, the veterans from 04 (Tek, Papi, Schill, etc) called a players-only meeting and settled things down, got people playing with confidence again, squeezed out a win, and got the team rolling again. The result was not improved performance, but preventing UNDERperformance, which is damn hard to measure statistically.

 

So true, Dojii. The Stat Geeks want to quantify everything but there are some things that can't be quantified. When the Stat Geeks see things like this they simply ignore them or say that since they can't be quantified they can't be true.

 

There's more to baseball than numbers.

[Maxbialystock]

Right now we are on a rollercoaster. The one maybe sensible thing I said was this team is inexperienced. Last night was a huge huge win, and 6 of the 7 rbi's were from Ortiz and Ramirez. That said, that 9th inning rally had several contributors.

 

And don't forget the bullpen which went 6.2 innings while giving up 0 earned runs--without the benefit of Uehara, Kimbel, or Ziegler. On the other hand, youngster ERod folded like a cheap tent.

[Thunder]

Right now we are on a rollercoaster. The one maybe sensible thing I said was this team is inexperienced. Last night was a huge huge win, and 6 of the 7 rbi's were from Ortiz and Ramirez. That said, that 9th inning rally had several contributors.

 

And don't forget the bullpen which went 6.2 innings while giving up 0 earned runs--without the benefit of Uehara, Kimbel, or Ziegler. On the other hand, youngster ERod folded like a cheap tent.

 

Pen did the same thing on Tuesday, holding the O's scoreless for the majority of the game until the late HR by Schoop. I'm really pleased with the way the pitching has settled in since the ASB.

[moonslav59]

Pen did the same thing on Tuesday, holding the O's scoreless for the majority of the game until the late HR by Schoop. I'm really pleased with the way the pitching has settled in since the ASB.

 

First our rotation got into a groove. Now, the pen is hitting its stride. Maybe by playoff time, we can see both thriving.

[Dojji]

First our rotation got into a groove. Now, the pen is hitting its stride. Maybe by playoff time, we can see both thriving.

 

I'll settle with having at least one going at any given time, that's how good teams tend to work -- as long as something's working and the team wins, firing on all cylinders isn't strictly necessary. So you just hope that one man's slump coincides with 2 other people going on hitting streaks, and so on.

[Bellhorn04]

I was being sarcastic. To me Ellsbury and ARod are exhibits A and B in demonstrating the downfall of the Yankees. Way too much money for way too little performance.

 

I disagree about Ellsbury. He's just a run-of-the-mill overpay for a team like the Yankees. At least he's playing and he's been half-decent.

[illinoisredsox]

I remember OB saying something last night during Ellsbury's first AB about how he hasn't started in some of the biggest games the Yankees have played in over the last two years, like the games a couple weeks ago that got them back in the hunt, and the Wild Card game last year. Girardi doesn't trust his ability in the clutch, and IIRC, he didn't do much for us in the clutch in 2013.

 

When are you talking about when you mean clutch? He missed most of September that year when he broke his foot after fouling a ball off of it. When he came back, he hit .500 against the Rays in the ALDS, and over .300 against the Tigers in the ALCS. He hit .250 in the World Series. He was on base 29 times in 71 PAs that postseason, scoring 14 runs in 16 games and driving in another 6. Not sure what more you would want your leadoff hitter to do.

Edited September 16, 2016 by illinoisredsox

[Slasher9]

I disagree about Ellsbury. He's just a run-of-the-mill overpay for a team like the Yankees. At least he's playing and he's been half-decent.

 

maybe. maybe not. but it is a fact that he rode the bench whilst healthy in last years Wildcard game.....

[Thunder]

When are you talking about when you mean clutch? He missed most of September that year when he broke his foot after fouling a ball off of it. When he came back, he hit .500 against the Rays in the ALDS, and over .300 against the Tigers in the ALCS. He hit .250 in the World Series. He was on base 29 times in 71 PAs that postseason, scoring 14 runs in 16 games and driving in another 6. Not sure what more you would want your leadoff hitter to do.

 

I guess I didn't recall correctly. No worries.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Bullwhacky. THe problem is it applies in ways that are not easily measured in retrospect. The effect is not so much on the player themselves but on the team around them, and the reason it's so hard to detect is that any team will try to bring in playoff-veteran players if they're in the playoff hunt, because they KNOW it makes a difference to have players who have been there before and can tell the other guys what to expect, meaning a control group is hard to source

 

One example of what I'm rambling about -- When the Red Sox were flailing against the Guardians in 07, and looked like they were going to crap out, the veterans from 04 (Tek, Papi, Schill, etc) called a players-only meeting and settled things down, got people playing with confidence again, squeezed out a win, and got the team rolling again. The result was not improved performance, but preventing UNDERperformance, which is damn hard to measure statistically.

 

Also, this:

 

http://nesn.com/2013/11/david-ortiz-micd-up-during-game-4-dugout-speech-tells-team-we-dont-get-here-everyday-lets-relax-and-play-video/

[sk7326]

Bullwhacky. THe problem is it applies in ways that are not easily measured in retrospect. The effect is not so much on the player themselves but on the team around them, and the reason it's so hard to detect is that any team will try to bring in playoff-veteran players if they're in the playoff hunt, because they KNOW it makes a difference to have players who have been there before and can tell the other guys what to expect, meaning a control group is hard to source

 

One example of what I'm rambling about -- When the Red Sox were flailing against the Guardians in 07, and looked like they were going to crap out, the veterans from 04 (Tek, Papi, Schill, etc) called a players-only meeting and settled things down, got people playing with confidence again, squeezed out a win, and got the team rolling again. The result was not improved performance, but preventing UNDERperformance, which is damn hard to measure statistically.

 

It took one good Beckett start and the most out-of-nowhere homerun in recent Sox history ...

[sk7326]

After so many frustrating "coulda-shoulda" games, nice to pull a game we probably didn't deserve out of the fire ... I of course gave up on the game, which I don't blame myself for - but it serves me right.

[Spudboy]

After so many frustrating "coulda-shoulda" games, nice to pull a game we probably didn't deserve out of the fire ... I of course gave up on the game, which I don't blame myself for - but it serves me right.

 

I watched the entire game and gave up after the 8th with Betances due to come in.

 

The 9th inning came as a complete surprise as I watched it unfold. I was certain that Hanley would K or role over.

[oldtimer]

Again tonight we got by with Buchholz skating on the edge of disaster for 5 innings but our hitting carried us through. The Yankees didn't have enough strength in their BP or SP to hold our scoring at bay. If we get hitting up and down the lineup we are hard to beat. 15 games to go and we have a 2 game lead on Baltimore. The Yankees look as though they will not make it and Detroit looks in a swoon. The Blue Jays and Seattle appear to be the other competition. If and when we get to the playoffs it would be nice to have one more solid starter (other than Price and Porcello). Who will that be? E-Rod or Pomeranz? The BP is fairly solid and we have good subs at all positions. Good position to be in.

[Maxbialystock]

I disagree about Ellsbury. He's just a run-of-the-mill overpay for a team like the Yankees. At least he's playing and he's been half-decent.

 

You could be right. We have a Yankees fan at the office who says he would keep Ellsbury.

[Maxbialystock]

Last night we got a little help from Girardi who took Cessa out after 5 innings, 3 runs, and 66 pitches. Their bullpen then gave up 4 runs in 3 innings.

[S5Dewey]

The bad news for the Yankees.

 

1) They came into this series needing to win at least 3 out of 4. That ain't gonna happen.

 

2) They're now 6 games back in the standings.

 

3) They're facing David Price today.

 

There is no good news.

[a700hitter]

The bad news for the Yankees.

 

1) They came into this series needing to win at least 3 out of 4. That ain't gonna happen.

 

2) They're now 6 games back in the standings.

 

3) They're facing David Price today.

 

There is no good news.

I think they needed a sweep. Three out of four would have kept them on a respirator, but now they are dead with regard to the Division and on life support for the WC. If they lose one of the next 2, you can put a fork in them for the WC too.

[Bellhorn04]

The bad news for the Yankees.

 

1) They came into this series needing to win at least 3 out of 4. That ain't gonna happen.

 

2) They're now 6 games back in the standings.

 

3) They're facing David Price today.

 

There is no good news.

 

Personally I take nothing for granted. I agree the Yanks are probably postseason toast, but we still have to play the f***s 5 more times - important games for us if not for them.

[oldtimer]

Personally I take nothing for granted. I agree the Yanks are probably postseason toast, but we still have to play the f***as 5 more times - important games for us if not for them.

 

They are all but mathematically eliminated from winning the division and very unlikely as a wild card. They still can act as spoilers as they play the Blue Jays 4 and Baltimore 3 and now its down to 4 remaining against us. Will be watching the other contenders tonight.

[Maxbialystock]

Maybe, finally, these guys are really on a roll. Not just two come from behind wins in a row, but this one was a day game after a night game.

 

Once again the bullpen looked great, giving up 0 runs and 0 hits over the last 3. The lineup is looking good.

 

But suddenly the rotation is suspect. Price stumbled today, Buch survived yesterday thanks to 2 GIDP's but was lousy the time before, Pomerantz stunk his last time, and so did ERod. So, yes, 3 wins in a row, but I'm not so sure of the "on a roll."

[Oscars]

Whist not wishing to celebrate misfortune, our likely opponents in the playoffs, the Cleveland Guardians, now have have 2 injured starters with Carrasco breaking a finger today joining Salazar on the sidelines.

[Spudboy]

Whist not wishing to celebrate misfortune, our likely opponents in the playoffs, the Cleveland Guardians, now have have 2 injured starters with Carrasco breaking a finger today joining Salazar on the sidelines.

 

I love me some Tito but thems the breaks!

[moonslav59]

Who would you say is now the favorite to win the AL?

[Palodios]

Whist not wishing to celebrate misfortune, our likely opponents in the playoffs, the Cleveland Guardians, now have have 2 injured starters with Carrasco breaking a finger today joining Salazar on the sidelines.

 

Kinda crazy. Without those guys, the Guardians are not a playoff team.

 

The winner of the AL East seems like they have a straight shot to the ALCS, unless the Rangers tank the end of the season.

[moonslav59]

Kinda crazy. Without those guys, the Guardians are not a playoff team.

 

The winner of the AL East seems like they have a straight shot to the ALCS, unless the Rangers tank the end of the season.

 

REALly, Texas will have to play the Jays or O's while we play the depleted Guardians.

 

It won't be a cake walk, but it's probably easier than the WC winner.