Postseason Happenings 2016

[Maxbialystock]

In. Happy Smiley-Beni day!

[Maxbialystock]

The most sensible thing I've read on Kimbrel is what S5Dewey wrote, that opposing managers should tell their hitters to take the first two pitches from Kimbrel because he could walk them and because, if he is throwing strikes, he is hard to hit.

[User Name]

That is ridiculous.

[Spudboy]

Booking he duckboats this season may be difficult.

 

They are busy mowing people down.

[S5Dewey]

Yep. I'm in too. I only wish this day had come sooner this year.

[S5Dewey]

That is ridiculous.

 

Why?

[SoxnCycles]

Why?

 

Seemed to work pretty well Wed night.

[User Name]

Kimbrel was wild from the outset, and in this particular situation, the Sox had clinched, and probably did not give a rat's ass anymore.

 

Now, if you sit on Kimbrel, and he's throwing a semblance of strikes, you've got a 3K inning on 12 pitches. The wildness is not consistent.

 

Also, stop making s*** up SoxNCycles, only Ellsbury actually went to a 2-0 count against Kimbrel.

[sk7326]

HFA is not all it's cracked up to be.

 

Rememember this year has been the celebration of the 1986 team. In 1986, the road team won 4 of the first 5 games in the World Series. In 1986 the road team made a gallant charge to stave off elimination in the ALCS. In 1986 the road team won a 16-inning series clincher in the NLCS.

 

1999 ALDS, 2003 ALDS, 2004 ALCS the Red Sox won Game 5/7s in the opponent's house.

 

Two of the Red Sox Game 7 losses in World Series were at home.

 

Getting the bye into the ALDS was crucial - the rest? just win. Road teams break through - all the time (like the 2014 Series!).

[a700hitter]

I would still rather have HFA. Our offense is much better at home, and our offense is the strength of this team.

[User Name]

I'll take HFA vs the Guardians for 500, Trebek.

[sk7326]

I would still rather have HFA. Our offense is much better at home, and our offense is the strength of this team.

 

Was also true in 2004 - and "we hit better at home" describes 99% of the Red Sox teams ever

[a700hitter]

Was also true in 2004 - and "we hit better at home" describes 99% of the Red Sox teams ever

Ask the players what they would prefer. That is what matters.

 

Edit: We also had 2 big shutdown HOF worthy pitchers in our rotation in 2004. We don't have that in 2016.

[moonslav59]

Was also true in 2004 - and "we hit better at home" describes 99% of the Red Sox teams ever

 

Home OPS: .867 (6.0 R/Gm)

Away OPS: .762 (4.95 R/Gm)

Differential 1.05 (1 run a game)

 

Pitching:

Home OPS against: .752 (4.76 R/Gm)

Away OPS against: .669 (3.88 R/Gm)

Differential .083 (0.9 runs a game)

 

All in all, the run differentials are pretty close:

Home: +1.24

Away: +1.07

 

[a700hitter]

Home OPS: .867 (6.0 R/Gm)

Away OPS: .762 (4.95 R/Gm)

Differential 1.05 (1 run a game)

 

Pitching:

Home OPS against: .752 (4.76 R/Gm)

Away OPS against: .669 (3.88 R/Gm)

Differential .083 (0.9 runs a game)

 

All in all, the run differentials are pretty close:

Home: +1.24

Away: +1.07

 

But a HFA, close or not.

[moonslav59]

2013: Runs scored/runs allowed per game

Home: 5.17 to 3.95= +1.22

Away: 5.35 to 4.14= +1.21

 

2007:

Home: 5.83 to 4.35= +1.48

Away: 4.88 to 3.77= +1.11

 

2004:

Home: 6.38 to 4.81= +1.57

Away: 5.33 to 4.67= +0.66

 

As you can see, the 2007 and 2004 seasons showed greater Home-Away disparities.

 

[moonslav59]

But a HFA, close or not.

 

HFA is probably more important than giving players an extra day of rest. We will get several days off between the end of the season and game 1 of the playoffs anyway, plus another day off after game 2.

[d-money]

I am not a fan of farrell's strategy here. I hope he play's the regulars against toronto. Win the series.

[mvp 78]

I don't care about HFA. I want my players well rested. It's been a long season.

[a700hitter]

I don't care about HFA. I want my players well rested. It's been a long season.

I think rest is highly overrated at this time of the year. They are all banged up from 162 game season, and 1 or 2 days will not heal them. Adrenaline will carry them the rest of the way. I think there is more danger of time off causing them to lose their edge, their timing, causing a flat performance. Just my opinion.

[S5Dewey]

Kimbrel was wild from the outset, and in this particular situation, the Sox had clinched, and probably did not give a rat's ass anymore.

 

Now, if you sit on Kimbrel, and he's throwing a semblance of strikes, you've got a 3K inning on 12 pitches. The wildness is not consistent.

 

Also, stop making s*** up SoxNCycles, only Ellsbury actually went to a 2-0 count against Kimbrel.

 

IMO the fact that the Sox had clinched had little to nothing to do with Kimbrel's performance. At least I hope it didn't. He's paid to get people out. Period.

 

The secret there of course is what you said, if he's throwing a semblance of strikes - which he doesn't do some days. But a team needs to find out which Kimbrel is on the mound. When Kimbrel has good control his stock in trade is a pitch that's up and in followed by one that looks like it's going to be a strike but runs down and away from a RH hitter and into the "can't hit it" zone for a lefty. By the time it gets to the plate it's unhittable.

 

I maintain taking two pitches is smart. The worst thing that's going to happen for the hitter is that he's going to be down 0-2 in the count, and if Kimbrel has that kind of control that day you're not going to hit him if they gave you 10 pitches. More realistically it's either going to be 1-1 or 2-0. If it's 1-1 you're on your own with two strikes left. Obviously if you're up 2-0 in the count you stand there until he proves he can throw a strike - which is iffy some days.

 

I don't see the downside, and it's definitely worth any gamble given the fact that you're probably not going to hit him anyway.

[a700hitter]

IMO, Kimbrel was just out of sync and could not find his release point. He showed no ability to throw strikes. When he goes bad like that, and it is rare, the batters can pretty much go up to the plate without a bat and Kimbrel is helpless. It is baffling.

[User Name]

IMO the fact that the Sox had clinched had little to nothing to do with Kimbrel's performance. At least I hope it didn't. He's paid to get people out. Period.

 

The secret there of course is what you said, if he's throwing a semblance of strikes - which he doesn't do some days. But a team needs to find out which Kimbrel is on the mound. When Kimbrel has good control his stock in trade is a pitch that's up and in followed by one that looks like it's going to be a strike but runs down and away from a RH hitter and into the "can't hit it" zone for a lefty. By the time it gets to the plate it's unhittable.

 

I maintain taking two pitches is smart. The worst thing that's going to happen for the hitter is that he's going to be down 0-2 in the count, and if Kimbrel has that kind of control that day you're not going to hit him if they gave you 10 pitches. More realistically it's either going to be 1-1 or 2-0. If it's 1-1 you're on your own with two strikes left. Obviously if you're up 2-0 in the count you stand there until he proves he can throw a strike - which is iffy some days.

 

I don't see the downside, and it's definitely worth any gamble given the fact that you're probably not going to hit him anyway.

 

I don't see it. If you get a first-pitch fastball over the heart of the plate from Kimbrel you better take advantage of it. If he's on, you're probably not getting anything else.

[a700hitter]

I don't see it. If you get a first-pitch fastball over the heart of the plate from Kimbrel you better take advantage of it. If he's on, you're probably not getting anything else.

Hitting isn't easy. That is for sure. Hitting Kimbrel is a different level of difficult. His ball moves so much that he rarely throws a ball over the middle with no movement. I think most hitters would have a much better chance against him by just making him throw strikes. It really seems like a tossup whether he can throw 3 strikes before throwing 4 balls.

[d-money]

I just notice they have the same losses as cleveland. What the f***'s farrell doing? Do they want home field against the Guardians or no? I rather play them at home. Toronto will come into this series with alot to play for.

[Maxbialystock]

Hitting isn't easy. That is for sure. Hitting Kimbrel is a different level of difficult. His ball moves so much that he rarely throws a ball over the middle with no movement. I think most hitters would have a much better chance against him by just making him throw strikes. It really seems like a tossup whether he can throw 3 strikes before throwing 4 balls.

 

I wouldn't call it a tossup, but it's close enough to be a reasonable approach when facing Kimbrel. However, I truly believe his fast ball is hittable even at 100 mph if the batter is sure that's what is coming. Kimbrel must have the knuckle curve working to be effective. Wright has an OK fastball that works, but only if his knuckleball is working. Of course, Wright doesn't need any other pitches when his knuckler is working, which means in the strike zone or close enough to get swings. I believe Kimbrel needs both pitches working even though that knuckle curve is pretty darn good by itself.

[S5Dewey]

I don't see it. If you get a first-pitch fastball over the heart of the plate from Kimbrel you better take advantage of it. If he's on, you're probably not getting anything else.

 

Yep. Watch him. If he's on his next pitch is going to be that one that's down and away to a righty and usually out of the strike zone - but looks like a strike on the way in. That's why hitters flail away at it. But your're right in that if he can throw that second pitch for a strike he's "on" - and I'm right when I say that if he has that kind of control you're not going to hit him that day anyway.

 

I don't know if you've noticed but he doesn't throw a lot of pitches that are in the strike zone. He depends on batters swinging at pitches that are out of the zone and he can get away with it because of his speed and that ball that breaks down and in to a lefty.

 

Anyway, that's what I would do. I just hope other managers don't try it.

[illinoisredsox]

I just notice they have the same losses as cleveland. What the f***'s farrell doing? Do they want home field against the Guardians or no? I rather play them at home. Toronto will come into this series with alot to play for.

 

So how many times are you going to make this same post? I realize you treat every game like it's an NFL game (realize that the baseball equivalent is 10 games). That being said, you don't know what the plans are line-up wise for this weekend. We do know the Sox announcers last night said that the plan is at least MOST of the regulars will play tonight (assuming there is a game tonight). The Boston weather forecast for the weekend absolutely sucks, so they easily could be playing 2 on Sunday or even 1 or 2 on Monday, and all kinds of plans get thrown out of kilter.

[oldtimer]

Yep. Watch him. If he's on his next pitch is going to be that one that's down and away to a righty and usually out of the strike zone - but looks like a strike on the way in. That's why hitters flail away at it. But your're right in that if he can throw that second pitch for a strike he's "on" - and I'm right when I say that if he has that kind of control you're not going to hit him that day anyway.

 

I don't know if you've noticed but he doesn't throw a lot of pitches that are in the strike zone. He depends on batters swinging at pitches that are out of the zone and he can get away with it because of his speed and that ball that breaks down and in to a lefty.

 

Anyway, that's what I would do. I just hope other managers don't try it.

 

I believe it was quite cool and heavily misting the night he was wild. I also noticed Robbie Ross and the Scott kid were wild and that also i not usual. Could it be the mound at Yankee Stadium had something to do with the wildness? Even Price the night before had trouble locating his pitches but that looked more like what he had encountered before so I don't really tie that into the poor performance by Kimbrel.

[sk7326]

this ain't soccer or football - home field for the most part means squat. Now this is a little weird since baseball has the most severe home field advantage (the last at-bat as well as parks of different shapes) but that does not make it less true. What is home field advantage? The ability to have a Game 5 or Game 7 at your house. So what has happened in the annals of deciding games this century:

 

2015: Road team won both wild card games, KC and Toronto won LDS home Game 5, Mets won LDS road Game 5 ... (home teams 2-3 overall)

2014: Royals won home wild card, Giants won road wild card, Giants won WS Game 67 on road ... (home 1-2 in season ... 3-5 overall)

2013: Rays won road wild card, Pirates won home wild card, Cardinals won home LDS Game 5 ... (home 2-1 ... 5-6 overall)

2012: Orioles, Cardinals won road wild card, Yankees won home LDS, Tigers won road LDS, Cardinals, Giants won road LDS, Giants won home LCS ... (home 2-5 ... 7-11 overall)

2011: Tigers won LDS home, Cards won LDS road, Brewers won LDS home, Cards won WS home (home 3-1 ... 10-12 overall)

2010: Rangers won LDS road (home 0-1, 10-13 overall)

2008: Rays won LCS home (home 1-0, 11-13 overall)

2007: Red Sox won LCS home (home 1-0, 12-13 overall)

2006: Cards won LCS road (home 0-1, 12-14 overall)

2005: Angels won LDS home (home 1-0, 13-14 overall)

2004: Astros won LDS road, Red Sox won LCS road, Cards won LCS home (home 1-2, 14-16 overall)

2003: Red Sox won LDS road, Cubs won LDS road, Marlins won LCS road, Yankees won LCS home (home 1-3, 15-19 overall)

2002: Twins won LDS road, Giants won LDS road, Angels won WS home (home 1-2, 16-21 overall)

2001: Mariners, Yankees, Diamondbacks won LDS home, Diamondbacks won WS home (home 4-0, 20-21 overall)

2000: Yankees won LDS road (home 0-1, 20-22 overall)

 

So home teams are 20-22 in deciding games ... not much of an advantage. Now this does not mean teams with home field are not more likely to win than those without (I did not test that) ... of course they are, but that is because they have better records (at least the division champs do) and thus are likely better teams in the first place.

 

Getting the team ready - healthy or whatever - trumps home field by a lot.