Red Sox Acquire Drew Pomeranz

[Hugh2]

The 2013 staff was Lester, trade, trade, trade, Buchholz (who was injured). The bullpen was FA and trades aside from Taz, Doubront and Workman. Less than 50% was homegrown.

 

How do you have 3 trades in there???

 

Peavy was the only guy who started a post season game who was traded for. And the Sox traded from an organizational strength at a position they already had filled and guys ready to step into. Also, love him or hate him but Iggy was never a top 20 prospect. Although he was MLB ready.

 

Dempster was a FA

 

Lester, Buchholz were home grown and Lackey was another FA.

[Dojji]

I think they made out well. Not every trade has to involve a winner and a loser.

 

Right, this was a fundamentally fair trade. The Padres are a farm team that lives and dies on prospect development, and got a darn good one. We're a team that frequently buys talent and desperately needed a middle of the rotation starter, and we got exactly what we needed in exchange for a thing that if we're being honest, SD is in a position to prize far more than we do. It remains to be seen how it plays out, but the optics of the trade are fundamentally fair. It was a value for value trade, and both teams are in a position to value what they gained more than what they lost.

[Hugh2]

I think they made out well. Not every trade has to involve a winner and a loser.

 

No they don't, but they also do.....and we can't really judge that either way right now.

[Dojji]

How do you have 3 trades in there???

 

Peavy was the only guy who started a post season game who was traded for. And the Sox traded from an organizational strength at a position they already had filled and guys ready to step into. Also, love him or hate him but Iggy was never a top 20 prospect. Although he was MLB ready.

 

Dempster was a FA

 

Lester, Buchholz were home grown and Lackey was another FA.

 

you're splitting hairs. It was "homegrown FA FA trade" and that was MVP's point. The fact is if there's a team that could afford to deal a stud prospect to win now, we're one.

[Dojji]

I think that DD picked well who to trade for. I would have liked to keep Espinosa, but not at the cost of abandoning a season in a year when we have every chance of making the playoffs. if you have to mortgage the future to pick up a guy, Pomeranz is a decent pick, anyone better established is going to come with either more questionmarks or a higher price tag. DD did a good job here.

[moonslav59]

The only two words needed to understand this trade are as follows.

 

"Sellers. Market."

 

We needed starting pitching and everyone knew it. And starting pitching is the one thing that is never out of demand. No team is going to cut us a break in that circumstance so anyone we got would cost us something we don't want to lose. Of the available guys to lose, a very high potential A baller is one of the better choices. Of the available options of who to get bent over for, Pomeranz is a surprisingly good choice, I like the way DD is thinking here, he's got the demonstrated skillset to be durable and reasonably effective, and anyone better established than Pomeranz would be even more expensive.

 

I'm also glad that we picked up someone reasonably young when we're trading top prospects away. We won't have much direct control over Pomeranz, but if it works out, he's young enough to re-sign and that's a good thing.

 

I get that Espinosa is a potential stud, but we don't need potential right now. We are in range of a playoff berth for the first time in 3 years, this is absolutely not the time to be penny wise and pound foolish with our prospect pool. We absolutely could not fail to trade for a starter, doing so would be tantamount to throwing the season away. Since we were officially desperate other teams were going to ask for the moon and stars for anyone we picked up. This is the best deal DD could make and a better one than I could have thought of if I'm being honest.

 

We knew we needed pitching last winter, when the cost was lower and choices higher.

[Bellhorn04]

We knew we needed pitching last winter, when the cost was lower and choices higher.

 

Obviously they had hopes for better things from Buch/Kelly/Owens/Johnson. Didn't you?

[mvp 78]

Funny how 2 of those WS were on the backs of traded-for pitchers. 04 Schilling, 07 Beckett

 

All 3 of them were and that was the joke. It was sarcasm.

[mvp 78]

How do you have 3 trades in there???

 

Peavy was the only guy who started a post season game who was traded for. And the Sox traded from an organizational strength at a position they already had filled and guys ready to step into. Also, love him or hate him but Iggy was never a top 20 prospect. Although he was MLB ready.

 

Dempster was a FA

 

Lester, Buchholz were home grown and Lackey was another FA.

 

Fine FA's instead of trades. Not much of a difference in my opinion.

[mvp 78]

For everyone worrying that Pomeranz only has 2 pitches: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/drew-pomeranz-now-with-50-more-pitches/

[Hugh2]

Fine FA's instead of trades. Not much of a difference in my opinion.

 

Oh I think there is a difference. Now if DD is done in the larger scheme of things this trade nor the Kimbrel hurts us. But if gutting the system becomes the norm it's going to really hurt this team down the road.

 

Maybe others don't care about the future, but I do. It's not just this trade its' the combination of DD's willingness to gut systems. I have no problem with this, only that in excess it concerns me. Will he trade Devers for a relief pitcher at the deadline next year? is he going to trade Moncada and Benintendi for a #2 this offseason. Those trades pile up.

 

Imagine if we traded Betts away or JBJ away? this offense would still be really good....but try to imagine this team without all 3 of Betts, JBJ, and Bogaerts? When trading top prospects and gutting the system because the norm and not just something you do once to go for it you will reap what you sow.

[sk7326]

If I am a Padres fan, I am saying wait, we just gave up a 27 year old pitcher who made his first All Star team for a kid in A Ball with a 4+ ERA? WTH!

 

But the naysayers of this trade are in good company with our resident Yankee Fan.

 

Hooray for scouting the stat line!

[Hugh2]

I'm still going to wake up tomorrow and put my pants on the same way. I'm just a fan of building up systems and developing talent and I'd prefer to stay put than overpay, but life goes on and I'm excited to see if Drew can help this team down the stretch.

[Dojji]

Oh I think there is a difference.

 

There's a distinction, but in this context it's not a significant one. He was rebutting the idea that our WS teams were significantly homegrown when they were clearly not.

[Hugh2]

Hooray for scouting the stat line!

 

I love it when people think they can know everything they need to know about a prospect by looking at a box score.

[Dojji]

Hooray for scouting the stat line!

 

Hey scouting the statline has its place as long as you don't read too much into the future based on the present.

[mvp 78]

The job of the GM is to trade away the right prospects. Holding onto every prospect is bad business. You need to put trust in the scouts that say whether a deal is good or not.

 

I understand that there is concern for the future, I feel the same way, but the farm system hasn't been gutted. We held onto our 3 best prospects and acquired a #2.

[Hugh2]

There's a distinction, but in this context it's not a significant one. He was rebutting the idea that our WS teams were significantly homegrown when they were clearly not.

 

Well I beg to differ, the whole point I keep going back to here is the importance of building a system and not giving away blue chip prospects lightly. That's exactly what we did here, and that's exactly what we didn't do in 2013 and initially it was said we did. So in the context of this argument I'd so it's totally relevant.

[Dojji]

Not sure Pomeranz is a #2 outside of Petco, going from the most pitcher friendly park in the league to one of the more hitter friendly, and going to the best offensive division in the better offensive league, but that's fine since all we really needed is a #4 and he should be good for that.

 

If there's one thing about the whole trade that does make me legit nervous though, it's the idea that Pomeranz as a fulltime starter may be a Petco mirage. I hope not, and I don't think so, but the worry will be there until he shows up and delivers.

Edited July 15, 2016 by Dojji

[User Name]

Pomeranz added a cutter before ST, and it figures significantly into his current repertoire (he throws it over 15% of the time, similar percentage as his breaking ball) to go along with an improved (but still show-me) changeup. I get the points about the risk, and it's all fair, but take the thirty seconds to look up if the BS you're spouting is actually correct. The main reason for DP's breakout is that he's no longer a two-pitch pitcher.

 

By the way, talent evaluators consider his results "sustainable" but fear issues with his durability. That's the professional take. Don't make stuff up.

 

For everyone worrying that Pomeranz only has 2 pitches: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/drew-pomeranz-now-with-50-more-pitches/

 

Right.

[mvp 78]

I love it when people think they can know everything they need to know about a prospect by looking at a box score.

 

I love it when posters think they know everything about a prospect when they get their news from Soxprospects.com.

 

I follow Soxprospects and will continue to listen to the podcast. However, you have to take a lot of what they say with a grain of salt.

[Hugh2]

The job of the GM is to trade away the right prospects. Holding onto every prospect is bad business. You need to put trust in the scouts that say whether a deal is good or not.

 

I understand that there is concern for the future, I feel the same way, but the farm system hasn't been gutted. We held onto our 3 best prospects and acquired a #2.

 

If this is it, and DD holds onto Moncada and Benintendi, and is ok trading away Espy because he wants to develop Groome and Kopech I can live with that. But if this is just a representation of everything he's done in the past and he will inevitably keep on trading away our top prospects....then I don't like it at all.

[sk7326]

If this guy is the "best pitching prospect the Sox have had in a long, long time" as some people in this thread have said, (and I'm not convinced of that, it's hard to be sure how a guy is going to do in the majors no matter what he does in the minors) wouldn't DD know that as well? And knowing that, wouldn't the fact that he traded him for a starter who might not be "as good" as this guy might be in the future indicate that maybe DD knows something we don't? Maybe there are issues we aren't aware of. Maybe he's having physical trouble that indicates his career might not be all that long. Maybe off the field he's a psychotic. Granted, that seems unlikely, but in the end we got a guy who is doing well in the major leagues NOW, which we need, and in return gave up a guy who only MIGHT be a good starting pitcher years from now. I'm happy.

 

There is inherent risk in pitchers that young which makes dealing them easier than dealing young position prospects. At the same time - a pitcher striking out almost a batter an inning as the youngest player in all of Low A with 95-99 velocity is pretty darn interesting ... age and performance for level is always noteworthy ... when a team signs a guy for whom the industry brings up "young Pedro" without howls of derisive laughter, you have to pause.

 

I will not many of the posters will snivel at some future point about the weakness of org pitching and where is the ceiling? I know where the ceiling went.

 

I am a bit surprised at the Hulk Smash approach taken with a Top 20 prospect and how little track record it actually brought back. Nobody is untouchable, but a big market has the luxury to keep the high ceiling guys ... especially with a vibrant farm system. This deal makes sense for Boston on a basic level - at the same time, San Diego clearly had to be thinking "you're giving us what??!!!"

[Hugh2]

I love it when posters think they know everything about a prospect when they get their news from Soxprospects.com.

 

I follow Soxprospects and will continue to listen to the podcast. However, you have to take a lot of what they say with a grain of salt.

 

You have to take a lot of what everyone says with a grain of salt. A scout can see a guy on a good day or a bad day, but they still know more than me or you yet they can still be wrong. I do put a lot of faith into Soxprospects for 2 reasons. Firstly, they are often a lot lower on guys that are regarded higher around the nation which makes me think they are fair and not homers, I remember how surprised they were that everyone else was so high on Lars Anderson. And lastly but more importantly they have more eyes on our guys than anyone else, and they are there looking at them in more frequency as well with the obvious caveat of the actual Red Sox scouting department.

[Bellhorn04]

If this is it, and DD holds onto Moncada and Benintendi, and is ok trading away Espy because he wants to develop Groome and Kopech I can live with that. But if this is just a representation of everything he's done in the past and he will inevitably keep on trading away our top prospects....then I don't like it at all.

 

I'm pretty sure that DD didn't actually want to do this, but felt he was forced to by the situation.

[greenwell]

I like the trade. I realize it could end up being a bagwell trade, but it could end up looking like a great trade for us or anywhere in between.

If Pomeranz gives us 2 and a half good years, considering the strong nucleus of hitters we have for those years, the only way I would consider it a bad trade is if Espinoza turns out to be a truly elite pitcher. It's hard to find a good comparison for Espinoza, but I found 4 who started in the minors at age 17 or 18 and became elite pitchers, Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, Dwight Gooden and Pedro Martinez. None of these guys struggled like Espinoza has when they were 18/19 and playing A-AA ball. Granted these are some of the best pitchers over the last 30 years, but if anyone can find a pitcher who struggled at 18 in the minors and turned out to be great I'd love to see it.

On the other hand there's a chance Pomeranz falls apart or can't handle the AL east, but I think this trade could help our WS chances for more than just this year.

[Dojji]

Well I beg to differ, the whole point I keep going back to here is the importance of building a system and not giving away blue chip prospects lightly. That's exactly what we did here, and that's exactly what we didn't do in 2013 and initially it was said we did. So in the context of this argument I'd so it's totally relevant.

 

I have no idea what you're talkin about. We gave away some legit top prospects and big league ready ones at that, to get to all of our WS. Especially 07 and 13. 07 in particular was pretty much made by the Beckett trade where we lost Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez, people were HOWLING over that one. Luccino who authored the trade over Theo's head, was lucky that both Beckett and Lowell showed up big in the Series in 07, that shut a lot of people up but until that went down there were howls of anguish on the Red Sox forums over that one even though it did set us up bigtime.

m.

Edited July 15, 2016 by Dojji

[moonslav59]

I love it when posters think they know everything about a prospect when they get their news from Soxprospects.com.

 

I follow Soxprospects and will continue to listen to the podcast. However, you have to take a lot of what they say with a grain of salt.

 

When national services rank him #14 or there abouts, no grain of salt is needed.

[sk7326]

Hey scouting the statline has its place as long as you don't read too much into the future based on the present.

 

That place is basically not at Low-A ... I am amazed sometimes that fans don't get this. Winning is a very tangential goal outside of the bigs. Whether a prospect has had a good season or not involves something a bit more intricate than simply getting outs.

 

Scouting the stat line is exactly that ... using minor league numbers (where winning is not a primary goal) to divine characteristics about the player's future in the bigs. The biggest thing for an 18 year old in a full season league (this is true for Devers in Salem as a child for the level) is that they have not been overwhelmed.

[Bellhorn04]

I like the trade. I realize it could end up being a bagwell trade

 

What made the Bagwell trade especially egregious was that it was for .3 seasons of a relief pitcher.