A Realistic View at 2016

[moonslav59]

Losing Papi's power is going to hurt next year, but we still have the makings for a decent power team.

 

31 Betts

28 Ramirez

25 JBJ

2o Bogey

16 Shaw (in just 506 PAs)

13 Pedey

9 Young in 206

7 Leon in 251

 

If you replaced Papi's 34 Hrs with someone who hit 16, we'd still be a plus power team this year.

[cp176]

I can't remember my projected win total, but I thought we we a top 5 fave in MLB and were as good as anyone else in the AL.

 

come on now - no selective memories - we all thought that they would be better.

[moonslav59]

come on now - no selective memories - we all thought that they would be better.

 

I'm not sure if I can go back to BDC to look, but I think I picked us to be the best team in the AL. I think I might have said 98 or 100 wins. I really don't remember. I'm not trying to hide anything.

 

In 2013, I projected failure and we won it all.

In 2014 and 2015, I projected winning the AL east.

I'm oh for 3 going into this year.

[oldtimer]

I'm not sure if I can go back to BDC to look, but I think I picked us to be the best team in the AL. I think I might have said 98 or 100 wins. I really don't remember. I'm not trying to hide anything.

 

In 2013, I projected failure and we won it all.

In 2014 and 2015, I projected winning the AL east.

I'm oh for 3 going into this year.

 

Why advertise your failures? You provide many valuable posts here so trying to be Nostradamus is not your forte.

 

Go Sox!

[moonslav59]

Why advertise your failures? You provide many valuable posts here so trying to be Nostradamus is not your forte.

 

Go Sox!

 

I take thousands of positions. I'm bound to get a lot wrong.

 

I get a lot right too.

 

I was all for the Porcello extension and reminded people last year that the extension started in 2016 not 2015. I stuck with him all along.

 

I have always said that I felt Wright would be successful, if given a chance. I thought he'd get it last year, but he got hurt before his chance. He fell into a chance this year and did great.

 

I never gave up on JBJ. I called his sample size too small to judge even when it was over 500 PAs.

 

I hated the HanRam and Pablo signings- too much--to long.

 

I liked the Napoli signings but not the Vic, Drew and Dempster signings.

 

I was dead set on not bidiing high for Ellsbury.

 

I can name a lot of stuff more I got right, but I'm not afraid to admit when I'm wrong too.

 

[southpaw777]

Losing Papi's power is going to hurt next year, but we still have the makings for a decent power team.

 

31 Betts

28 Ramirez

25 JBJ

2o Bogey

16 Shaw (in just 506 PAs)

13 Pedey

9 Young in 206

7 Leon in 251

 

If you replaced Papi's 34 Hrs with someone who hit 16, we'd still be a plus power team this year.

 

Maybe Beni will contribute 20 over a full year. He certainly has that potential

[Bellhorn04]

Why advertise your failures? You provide many valuable posts here so trying to be Nostradamus is not your forte.

 

Go Sox!

 

Anyone who tries too much to be a Nostradamus at baseball ends up looking like a Nostradumbass.

[Emp9]

Anyone who tries too much to be a Nostradamus at baseball ends up looking like a Nostradumbass.

 

How dare thy mock!

 

"All the friend who will have belonged to the party,

For the rude in letters put death and plundered:

Property up for sale at fixed price the great one annihilated.

Never were the Roman people so wronged"

 

 

It's pretty obvious from above Nostradamus was right about the 2016 NY Yankees.

[moonslav59]

Maybe Beni will contribute 20 over a full year. He certainly has that potential

 

...and if Moncada gets a lot of playing time, we could see 20+ there too.

[Nick]

...and if Moncada gets a lot of playing time, we could see 20+ there too.

 

I still would like to know what it would take to get one of the White Sox starters...

 

If they are 'rebuilding', why would they be interested in say Bradley Jr or Xander? Aren't the two out of their price range at some point? So if they are truly in rebuilding mode I'm guessing they want young talent.

 

If I'm White Sox, Beni, Swihart and Rodriques might do the trick. Is Beni untouchable?

 

Can we plug in Moncada in LF? Or do we substitue Moncada for Beni?

 

And if that trade is made, will we go big and sign a power bat? We still have Young in LF for another year.

 

C Sandy

1B Hanley

2B Pedey

SS Xander

3B Shaw

LF Young

CF Bradley Jr

RF Betts

DH Encarnacion

 

SP Porcello, Price, Sales, Pomeranz, Wright, Johnson.

 

Clay B will relieve Sox of $13M which can be used to pay Sales.

 

Having someone as good as Sales makes our team more 'balanced'. Is the differential in production between Sales and Rodriquez big enough to offset losing Beni who may have 15 years in majors?

Edited September 20, 2016 by Nick

[oldtimer]

I still would like to know what it would take to get one of the White Sox starters...

 

If they are 'rebuilding', why would they be interested in say Bradley Jr or Xander? Aren't the two out of their price range at some point? So if they are truly in rebuilding mode I'm guessing they want young talent.

 

If I'm White Sox, Beni, Swihart and Rodriques might do the trick. Is Beni untouchable?

 

Can we plug in Moncada in LF? Or do we substitue Moncada for Beni?

 

And if that trade is made, will we go big and sign a power bat? We still have Young in LF for another year.

 

C Sandy

1B Hanley

2B Pedey

SS Xander

3B Shaw

LF Young

CF Bradley Jr

RF Betts

DH Encarnacion

 

SP Porcello, Price, Sales, Pomeranz, Wright, Johnson.

 

Clay B will relieve Sox of $13M which can be used to pay Sales.

 

Having someone as good as Sales makes our team more 'balanced'. Is the differential in production between Sales and Rodriquez big enough to offset losing Beni who may have 15 years in majors?

 

No to breaking up a solid team to get one guy who may or may not break down the year we get him. Stay young and try to get pitchers with what we can offer without breaking up key elements of the team. I include Beni in that.

[Eddy Ballgame]

No to breaking up a solid team to get one guy who may or may not break down the year we get him. Stay young and try to get pitchers with what we can offer without breaking up key elements of the team. I include Beni in that.

 

I agree. I don't see Sale as a realistic possibility at this point for several reasons:

 

The White Sox don't "have" to move him and they will need to be blown away to do so.

 

The Red Sox aren't going to blow up the farm or trade any of the cost-controlled young guys on the MLB roster for Sale. With Porcello & Price settling in, there is no longer a need for that top of the rotation stopper.

 

There has to be concerns about Sale's delivery.

 

The Sox seem to be consistent with the "untouchables," and it's going to take more than one of them to get Sale.

[sk7326]

I agree. I don't see Sale as a realistic possibility at this point for several reasons:

 

The White Sox don't "have" to move him and they will need to be blown away to do so.

 

The Red Sox aren't going to blow up the farm or trade any of the cost-controlled young guys on the MLB roster for Sale. With Porcello & Price settling in, there is no longer a need for that top of the rotation stopper.

 

There has to be concerns about Sale's delivery.

 

The Sox seem to be consistent with the "untouchables," and it's going to take more than one of them to get Sale.

 

There are concerns - but his durability has belied them enough to have to give him some benefit of the doubt.

 

I think what you get is posturing right now - no reason the Sox won't revisit it in the winter.

[User Name]

Sale will break down soon. He is fool's gold. I am willing to bet money on it.

[Kingface]

Sale will break down soon. He is fool's gold. I am willing to bet money on it.

 

I agree............ However, saying that a strike out pitcher with already 1,100 innings on his arm at the age of 27 will break down is not exactly going out on a limb.......

[mvp 78]

I agree............ However, saying that a strike out pitcher with already 1,100 innings on his arm at the age of 27 will break down is not exactly going out on a limb.......

 

Great pun.

[Eddy Ballgame]

There are concerns - but his durability has belied them enough to have to give him some benefit of the doubt.

 

I think what you get is posturing right now - no reason the Sox won't revisit it in the winter.

 

I'm not saying they won't re-visit it, I just don't think they are going to be willng to part with the package that it would take to get him at this point.

 

I'm also not sure that Chicago will go in to re-build mode this off-season They have enough of a core where they may try to compete next year.

[moonslav59]

Sale will break down soon. He is fool's gold. I am willing to bet money on it.

 

Quintana has an extra year. One reason I prefer him over Sale.

[moonslav59]

Projected season ending stats (1.067 x current numbers):

 

Papi .318 38 130

Betts .317 33 116

HanR .292 30 114

Bogey .296 21 94

JBJ .276 28 93

Shaw .249 17 75

Young .285 10 23

Leon .328 8 36

 

[moonslav59]

Before the season started I harped on the fact that every other AL teams had more and or larger serious issues than we had, and that they had less in-system depth to address their weaknesses than we did.

 

Here's the W-L records of the top AL contenders:

 

Last 10

8-2 Sox (9-2 in last 11 and 12-3 in their last 15)

6-4 CLE (9-5 in last 14)

6-4 TEX (8-9 in last 17)

6-4 HOU (7-7 in last 14)

5-5 TOR (6-10 in last 16 and 7-12 in last 19)

4-6 BAL (8-10 in last 18)

4-6 DET (5-8 in the last 13)

 

Only CLE has been winning recently.

 

 

Since AUG 1st

BOS 31-18

TEX 28-19

CLE 28-21

HOu 26-22

DET 23-22

TOR 24-23

BAL 23-25

 

Only BOS, CLE & TEX have dobe very well since AUG 1.

 

[oldtimer]

Projected season ending stats (1.067 x current numbers):

 

Papi .318 38 130

Betts .317 33 116

HanR .292 30 114

Bogey .296 21 94

JBJ .276 28 93

Shaw .249 17 75

Young .285 10 23

Leon .328 8 36

 

 

Hard to project guys with a single season multiplier when they are mired in serious slumps. Shaw and Leon for instance will likely finish worse then your projections. Interested in why you left Pedey off your list.

[Hugh2]

I agree............ However, saying that a strike out pitcher with already 1,100 innings on his arm at the age of 27 will break down is not exactly going out on a limb.......

 

That's averaging about 200 IP per season. That's not exactly high, a lot of pitchers aren't even in the league at age 21 so they are still accumulating innings just not MLB innings. Milb innings put just as much stress on the arm as MLB innings. Some of the best pitchers have been work horses their entire career with little to no arm problems.

 

What is very concerning about Sale is his mechanics, they work for him and tinkering with them might regress him to non ace status but they just spell TJ.

[moonslav59]

Hard to project guys with a single season multiplier when they are mired in serious slumps. Shaw and Leon for instance will likely finish worse then your projections. Interested in why you left Pedey off your list.

 

Oversight:

 

Pedey .322 13 70

[Hugh2]

Oversight:

 

Pedey .322 13 70

 

He's right though, those numbers are not going to be accurate because guys are hot/cold right now and will not put up slash lines comparable to their season lines to date. Stats are volatile in the short run for all players.

 

However, there are so few games left they can't really differentiate that much at all at this point.

[Nick]

This has been a good year. Somehow Ortiz was able to coax contributions from entire group in his final season. You hear about a team playing for their manager. I believe our young players are playing so well partly to honor Ortiz in his final season. It's a small payback for his support, encouragement and maybe tough love when they needed it. They all have great respect for Ortiz. Not sure how it will end but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Sox win it all with Ortiz right in middle of it.

[Eddy Ballgame]

This has been a good year. Somehow Ortiz was able to coax contributions from entire group in his final season. You hear about a team playing for their manager. I believe our young players are playing so well partly to honor Ortiz in his final season. It's a small payback for his support, encouragement and maybe tough love when they needed it. They all have great respect for Ortiz. Not sure how it will end but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Sox win it all with Ortiz right in middle of it.

 

This team seems to really enjoy playing together. Great chemistry can go a long way in this game.

 

They are miles away from the fall of 2012 when Cherington said that the first thing that they needed to do was "Change the make-up of the Clubhouse." Obviously the August trade of Beckett, Gonzalez & Crawford went a long way in doing that.

[Nick]

http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/21/the-curious-case-of-red-sox-catchers/

 

Good read on Sox catching situation, particularly for 2017

[SoxnCycles]

http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/21/the-curious-case-of-red-sox-catchers/

 

Good read on Sox catching situation, particularly for 2017

 

Good read, thanks.

[moonslav59]

He's right though, those numbers are not going to be accurate because guys are hot/cold right now and will not put up slash lines comparable to their season lines to date. Stats are volatile in the short run for all players.

 

However, there are so few games left they can't really differentiate that much at all at this point.

 

The adjustments I added were minuscule, so I'm not sure we will see wild fluctuations on any of the numbers, except for those like Leon and Young who have fewer PAs.

[Nick]

Question for the board

 

For Aaron Hill, what is his salary for the purpose of luxury tax calculation? He signed a 3 yr $35M contract or avg value of say $12M. I'm assuming Sox are responsible for the full amount, no? Moon?