A Realistic View at 2016

[moonslav59]

Here's what we have left...

 

off

@TOR Porcello (+1 day rest)

@TOR ERod (+1)

@TOR Pomeranz (+1)

v BAL Buchholz (+1)

v BAL Price (+1)

v BAL Porcello

V NYY ERod

v NYY Pomeranz

v NYY Buchholz

@ BAL Price

@ BAL Porcello

@ BAL ERod

@ BAL Pomeranz

@ TBR Buchholz

@ TBR Price

@ TBR Porcello

off

@ NYY ERod (+1)

@ NYY Pomeranz (+1)

@ NYY Buchholz (+1)

v TOR Price (+1)

v TOR Porcello (+1)

v TOR ERod (+1)

 

If we did not give our best pitchers the extra days off, and we push ERod's start back, then Price opens against BAL with ERod sliding between Price and Porcello. Then, when we come to the last day off, we'd skip Buch and have this ...

 

@ TBR Price

@ TBR ERod

@ TBR Porcello

off

@ NYY Pomeranz

@ NYY Price

@ NYY ERod or Buchholz (+2)

v TOR Porcello

v TOR Buch or ERod

v TOR Pomeranz

 

This way we are better lined up for Price to pitch the first game of the post season, and if we don't have to play the WC game, Porcello could start game 2, but we may need that extra start from Price in the regular season to make it to the playoffs.

 

 

[moonslav59]

BOS (10H/13A)

7 vs BAL

7 vs NYY

6 vs TOR

3 vs TBR

 

Toronot has... (13H/10A)

6 vs BOS

4 vs NYY

3 vs BAL

3 vs TBR

4 @ LAA

3 @ SEA

 

BAL (11H/12A)

7 vs BOS

4 vs TBR

3 @ TOR

3 @ NYY

3 @ DET

3 vs AZ

 

NYY (13H/11A)

7 vs TBR

7 vs BOS

4 @ TOR

3 vs BAL

3 vs LAD

 

Nobody has an easy shot.

 

Here's the standings now:

 

BOS --

TOR -1.0 (WC)

BAL -2.0 (WC)

____________

DET -1.0 from WC

HOU -2.0

NYY -2.5

KCR -4.0

SEA -5.5

[moonslav59]

..........teams over .547/ teams over .529

AL East 3/4

AL Cent 1/2

AL West 1/2

(The AL has 10 teams over .500.)

____________________________

 

NL East 1/2

NL Cent 1/2

NL West 1/2

(The NL has only 6 teams over .500)

 

[moonslav59]

1st place in the toughest division in MLB.

 

We have as many teams over .547 or .529 as any 3 other divisions combined!

[southpaw777]

Here's what we have left...

 

off

@TOR Porcello (+1 day rest)

@TOR ERod (+1)

@TOR Pomeranz (+1)

v BAL Buchholz (+1)

v BAL Price (+1)

v BAL Porcello

V NYY ERod

v NYY Pomeranz

v NYY Buchholz

@ BAL Price

@ BAL Porcello

@ BAL ERod

@ BAL Pomeranz

@ TBR Buchholz

@ TBR Price

@ TBR Porcello

off

@ NYY ERod (+1)

@ NYY Pomeranz (+1)

@ NYY Buchholz (+1)

v TOR Price (+1)

v TOR Porcello (+1)

v TOR ERod (+1)

 

If we did not give our best pitchers the extra days off, and we push ERod's start back, then Price opens against BAL with ERod sliding between Price and Porcello. Then, when we come to the last day off, we'd skip Buch and have this ...

 

@ TBR Price

@ TBR ERod

@ TBR Porcello

off

@ NYY Pomeranz

@ NYY Price

@ NYY ERod or Buchholz (+2)

v TOR Porcello

v TOR Buch or ERod

v TOR Pomeranz

 

This way we are better lined up for Price to pitch the first game of the post season, and if we don't have to play the WC game, Porcello could start game 2, but we may need that extra start from Price in the regular season to make it to the playoffs.

 

 

 

Id rather have Price closing out the season than Pomeranz..I like the way its set up. To me, it doesnt matter who starts the first game of a playoff. Price or Porcello. Playing the team fighing us for 1st place as the last game of the season, I want price or Porcello out there

[moonslav59]

Id rather have Price closing out the season than Pomeranz..I like the way its set up. To me, it doesnt matter who starts the first game of a playoff. Price or Porcello. Playing the team fighing us for 1st place as the last game of the season, I want price or Porcello out there

 

If Price closes out the season, he won't be ready until the 3rd game of the playoffs, but if we clinch, he can skip the start.

 

It's a touch call, but we have to make the playoffs, so I agree. The extra start by Price might be "priceless".

[moonslav59]

soxprospects.com...

 

Salem bounced back in a big way after losing the series opener, pounding out 10 hits. Rafael Devers led the charge with a 2-for-4 night, clubbing a two-run shot in the fifth to give the Sox some breathing room.

 

Nice to see how this kid bounced back in a huge way. I'd love to watch him in Portland next summer!

[moonslav59]

Updated Standings

 

BOS +2 on TOR (+3 on BAL/DET for last WC slot)

 

WC race

TOR +1

Bal -

Det -

NYY -1.0

Hou -2.5

Sea -3.5

KCR -4.0

 

Edited September 10, 2016 by moonslav59

[Maxbialystock]

Yankees now 1.5 back of Orioles and tigers for 2d wild card slot.

[StephenCurry30]

I have a bad feeling yankees are gonna sneak into playoffs..

[oldtimer]

I have a bad feeling yankees are gonna sneak into playoffs..

 

They are playing better ball than the Orioles and Blue Jays so there is a good chance of that. The Tigers may be the more difficult to surpass. Lots of games to go as yet though and a lot can happen.

[southpaw777]

soxprospects.com...

 

Salem bounced back in a big way after losing the series opener, pounding out 10 hits. Rafael Devers led the charge with a 2-for-4 night, clubbing a two-run shot in the fifth to give the Sox some breathing room.

 

Nice to see how this kid bounced back in a huge way. I'd love to watch him in Portland next summer!

 

Had a very rough start in High A but has really taken charge the second half. I think hes almost at 300BA from a miserable 180 a couple months ago. Im guessing they start him in Salem again in 2017. Let him keep swinging good for a month then send him to Portland where he will really be challenged as a 20yo...Moncada will start in AAA probably. He needs work before hes 100%ready for MLB. No rush on him.

[southpaw777]

I have a bad feeling yankees are gonna sneak into playoffs..

 

They may, but I dont think all those kids will do much in the playoffs. Its pretty amazing that they are only 4 games back from us and the division lead. Personally, i like when the MFY are good. The rivalry is much better and intense.

[moonslav59]

Let's keep Toronto down.

 

Beat the hell out of 'em again and again!

[moonslav59]

Another low-scoring one run loss after a blow-out.

 

I hate this pattern we've seemed to latched onto.

 

It's never a 10-9 loss after a 12-0 win.

[oldtimer]

Another low-scoring one run loss after a blow-out.

 

I hate this pattern we've seemed to latched onto.

 

It's never a 10-9 loss after a 12-0 win.

 

We have lost a lot of games where our pitching was good. We have problems scoring against good pitching, but so do other teams so are we worse on the statistic of losing close low scoring games than other playoff bound teams?

[moonslav59]

We have lost a lot of games where our pitching was good. We have problems scoring against good pitching, but so do other teams so are we worse on the statistic of losing close low scoring games than other playoff bound teams?

 

We're 16-20 in one run losses, and my bet is most are in games with us scoring 3 or less runs.

 

We've lost 4 by 1 run in our last 10 games, so before that we were at .500.

 

2-3

1-2

0-1

3-4

 

Our last 1 run win was August 23rd 2-1.

 

My point was that we seem to lose by one run in low scoring games immediately after winning in a blow out.

 

Listed in reverse order...

 

Win 13-3 then - Lose 3-2

Win 16-2 & 11-2 then Lose 1-0 & 2-1

Win 9-4 then lose 4-3

 

Those were our last 4. Here's more over the season:

Win 8-1 then lose 4-3

Win 16-2 then lose 3-2

Win 11-7 & 13-2 then lose 2-1 (July 20th).

 

That's 7 times since July 20th.

 

The last time before that was May 12th: win 11-1 then lose 7-6. Win 7-3 then lose 3-2. Opening: win 6-2 then lose 7-6. It wasn't a pattern for us until late July.

 

I'm not sure how other contenders have one in 1-run games..

[moonslav59]

We have problems scoring against good pitching...

 

We've beaten some big named pitchers. We seem to lose to unknowns and middle of the roaders.

[moonslav59]

BOS +1.0 on TOR

 

TOR +1.0 (1st WC)

 

BAL 0.0 (2nd WC)

 

DET -1.0

NYY -1.0 - won 7 in a row

 

HOU -2.5

SEA -3.5

KCR -4.0

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

We have problems scoring against good pitching...

 

We've beaten some big named pitchers. We seem to lose to unknowns and middle of the roaders.

 

Both statements are just guesses without any statistical breakdown and comparisons to other teams.

[Maxbialystock]

Right now the Sox pitching is overall the best it has been all year and probably since 2013. The rotation certainly is--credit to DD. The bullpen has been very inconsistent, but on this roadtrip has come into its own. They have given up 2 runs in 8 games and both of those were unearned.

 

The problem is that the hitting is not consistent--13 runs against Toronto then 2 yesterday is what has happened repeatedly this season. I think Happ had something to do with that, but he also threw an awful lot of fastballs, none of which led to any runs by our guys, who finished the game with 4 hits--3 singles and Pedroia's dinger. Our guys have routinely stunk in day games after night games. Heck, they may simply stink in day games period.

 

Today will be another tester, this time against a righty who is pitching well. In another day game. I figure the usual suspects--5 lefty bats and 4 righties--Pedroia, Bogaerts, Ortiz, Betts, Ramirez, Shaw, Leon, Bradley, Holt. I assume Benintendi is unavailable. I expect Buchholz to do fine, maybe 6 or 7 innings, maybe 2 runs.

 

Last time we saw Sanchez was May 27 when we started Vazquez at C, Swihart in LF, and Hernandez at 3B with HanRam DH'ing for Ortiz and Shaw at 1B. Today's lineup will be better--last time they scored 4 runs, 3 earned--but will it hit as well?

Edited September 11, 2016 by Maxbialystock

[Bellhorn04]

Right now the Sox pitching is overall the best it has been all year and probably since 2013. The rotation certainly is--credit to DD. The bullpen has been very inconsistent, but on this roadtrip has come into its own. They have given up 2 runs in 8 games and both of those were unearned.

 

The problem is that the hitting is not consistent--13 runs against Toronto then 2 yesterday is what has happened repeatedly this season. I think Happ had something to do with that, but he also threw an awful lot of fastballs, none of which led to any runs by our guys, who finished the game with 4 hits--3 singles and Pedroia's dinger. Our guys have routinely stunk in day games after night games. Heck, they may simply stink in day games period.

 

Red Sox

Night games .826 OPS

Day games .800

 

AL overall

Night games .753 OPS

Day games .739 OPS

 

So we have just a little bit more of a dropoff in day games than the league in general.

Edited September 11, 2016 by Bellhorn04

[S5Dewey]

Red Sox

Night games .826 OPS

Day games .800

 

AL overall

Night games .753 OPS

Day games .739 OPS

 

So we have just a little bit more of a dropoff in day games than the league in general.

 

So a little worse

 

Meh. Normal statistical variation.

[Kimmi]

I think our record in Sunday games is not good, though I admit that is just my perception and I have not bothered to verify.

[Kimmi]

Too much stock is put into our record in one run games. The outcome of one run games is mostly due to randomness and tells you very little about the skill/talent/ability of the team. If you want to know about a team's talent, look at its record in blow out games, not one or two run games.

[Bellhorn04]

Too much stock is put into our record in one run games. The outcome of one run games is mostly due to randomness and tells you very little about the skill/talent/ability of the team. If you want to know about a team's talent, look at its record in blow out games, not one or two run games.

 

Pythagoras says we are the best team in the league. That'll be small consolation if we miss the playoffs. (See you over in the Lineup Discussions thread.)

[Kimmi]

Pythagoras says we are the best team in the league. That'll be small consolation if we miss the playoffs. (See you over in the Lineup Discussions thread.)

 

LOL I do understand that regardless of what Pythagoras says, our actual W-L record is what ultimately matters. You often hear the statement that it's better to be lucky than good.

[oldtimer]

We have problems scoring against good pitching...

 

We've beaten some big named pitchers. We seem to lose to unknowns and middle of the roaders.

 

We faced Happ yesterday and he may be the Blue Jays best. In addition, the Blue Jays wisely saved their better relief pitching instead of using them up in the blow out the day before.

[oldtimer]

LOL I do understand that regardless of what Pythagoras says, our actual W-L record is what ultimately matters. You often hear the statement that it's better to be lucky than good.

 

Pythagoras is just a construct and doesn't really summarize data, it just condenses two items and seems to work at times. There are probably many more constructs that would work equally well. For those who use stats, I suggest you read "The Seven Pillars of Statistical Wisdom", Stephen M. Stigler (Harvard University Press). It gives a historical perspective and perhaps a better understanding of what gets used so often here.

[moonslav59]

Red Sox

Night games .826 OPS

Day games .800

 

AL overall

Night games .753 OPS

Day games .739 OPS

 

So we have just a little bit more of a dropoff in day games than the league in general.

 

true, it's a 1.02 to 1.03 correlation. Not much to consider a big deal.