A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Arias isnt fast enough or big enough or strong enough to save our offense.  Hes a defense first, average speed, regular joe body.  He could be a solid player in MLB, but the league is trending towards the freaks.  The freak athletes. 

Im not saying hes a bust, Im just saying that if someone says we lost too many homeruns and slug, and you point to a 5'1 1 guy whose best tool is his glove....I ask if you heard what I said.  

Id rather have Story.  Because I know that Story has the strength for extra base hitting.  I think going from Story to Arias, we are going down in slg, extra base hits...

I realize this is not just about a line-by-line comparison to 2026, but the Sox SS position had 9 Hrs and a .350 SLG. In those terms, Arias may improve the SS power, but yes, Story has more power. He led the Sox in HRs and RBI in 2025.

I'm fine with Arias is we add Sato or Suzuki.

I'd be fine with trading Arias and some other prospects for Abrams or de la Cruz.

[moonslav59]

Just now, drewski6 said:

You want to count on Arias being a once in a lifetime player to fix our offense....Because Im just saying that maybe go get some freak athletes with forearms that barely fit through the door are a better bet to stop this team from losing slug.

Replacing Story with ARias is most likely not going to fix your lack of power hitting.  Story is the only guy who had extra base hits in playoffs last 2 years.

I kinda answered this in my last post. Doing nothing to improve the offense and slotting Arias over Story at SS will not help the offense, but you have to know Story will not get more than 400+ PAs in 2027, no matter what team he plays on. (Says the guy that was done with Sale.)

[drewski6]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

I kinda answered this in my last post. Doing nothing to improve the offense and slotting Arias over Story at SS will not help the offense, but you have to know Story will not get more than 400+ PAs in 2027, no matter what team he plays on. (Says the guy that was done with Sale.)

Correct.  I expect Story to get hurt and Arias to come in and fill in admirably.  But there is slg lost there, so if we want to improve our slg, thats moving in the wrong direction and so we need a lot of slg help elsewhere.

Im not saying Arias is a bust.  Im just saying that from what I read, we refused to part with him for Elly.  Elly is a freak. Hes faster, stronger, bigger, twitchier, toolsier.  I would trade Arias for Elly, and thats not exactly a knock on Arias.  Arias could be standing behind you at the grocery store and he would like a regular dude.  Elly is larger than life.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Correct.  I expect Story to get hurt and Arias to come in and fill in admirably.  But there is slg lost there, so if we want to improve our slg, thats moving in the wrong direction and so we need a lot of slg help elsewhere.

Im not saying Arias is a bust.  Im just saying that from what I read, we refused to part with him for Elly.  Elly is a freak. Hes faster, stronger, bigger, twitchier, toolsier.  I would trade Arias for Elly, and thats not exactly a knock on Arias.  Arias could be standing behind you at the grocery store and he would like a regular dude.  Elly is larger than life.

I know you are not saying Arias will likely be a bust, even if just year one, and I agree. 

I'm a huge fan of defense, especially at SS and Catcher, but the need for a major gain in offense is too big to ignore. Of all the positions- yes POSITIONS- we can try to upgrade, SS looks like the lowest projected OPS. The fact that some major bat SSs have been discussed as trade targets gets me thinking the likelihood we sign a big bat is low, so maybe this is the only way we can do it.

Arias, alone, will not get de la Cruz or Abrams, and I hope we don't have to include Justin Gonzalez, but it might take him to get who we want. Throwing in Monasterio or Seigler will probably not move any needles, but Sogard might. Of course, I'd offer Duran, but I'm not sure more than 2-3 GMs are even interested.

BTV accepts Arias & Gonzales for de la Cruz

I'd prefer this one:

Arias, Valera, Delzine & Soto, but I doubt CIN says yes.

BTV accepts Arias and Gonzales for Abrams and Woos, but I have to laugh that one off. They have Abrams worth about $29M- less than half the Arias value. They accept Gonzales & Holobetz.

I'd try Valera, Delzine and Duran, which BTV accepts.

 

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

No room at the inn for Hank Aaron and Willie Mays.

Hell, I think Hack Wilson was just 5-6 and Mel Ott 5-9.

Joe Morgan... Jose Altuve...

Not even Yaz.

[Old Red]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I know you are not saying Arias will likely be a bust, even if just year one, and I agree. 

I'm a huge fan of defense, especially at SS and Catcher, but the need for a major gain in offense is too big to ignore. Of all the positions- yes POSITIONS- we can try to upgrade, SS looks like the lowest projected OPS. The fact that some major bat SSs have been discussed as trade targets gets me thinking the likelihood we sign a big bat is low, so maybe this is the only way we can do it.

Arias, alone, will not get de la Cruz or Abrams, and I hope we don't have to include Justin Gonzalez, but it might take him to get who we want. Throwing in Monasterio or Seigler will probably not move any needles, but Sogard might. Of course, I'd offer Duran, but I'm not sure more than 2-3 GMs are even interested.

BTV accepts Arias & Gonzales for de la Cruz

I'd prefer this one:

Arias, Valera, Delzine & Soto, but I doubt CIN says yes.

BTV accepts Arias and Gonzales for Abrams and Woos, but I have to laugh that one off. They have Abrams worth about $29M- less than half the Arias value. They accept Gonzales & Holobetz.

I'd try Valera, Delzine and Duran, which BTV accepts.

 

From what I read about last years trade discussion with the Reds about de la Cruz that they did not want suspects, and wanted young already MLB players, so unless they’ve changed their minds, which I doubt has happened it’s a non starter without some. I guess BTV doesn’t know stuff like that.

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, Old Red said:

From what I read about last years trade discussion with the Reds about de la Cruz that they did not want suspects, and wanted young already MLB players, so unless they’ve changed their minds, which I doubt has happened it’s a non starter without some. I guess BTV doesn’t know stuff like that.

BTV just tries to identify a player/prospect trade value in dollars. They do not even attempt to investigate what teams need or want.

If we take their numbers and apply it to MLB talent only, it would be a difficult mix to offer, and maybe that's one reason it never happened. (Plus, the Sox were looking at the 2026 playoffs not just the future.)

de la Cruz is worth 94.

72 Tolle

70 Rafaela

64 Arias ("a suspect")

52 Crochet

34 Durbin

33 Abreu

24 Bennett

14 Suarez

11 Slaten & Mead

10 Sogard

9 Anthony

In terms of just numbers, which is all BTV is about...

Rafaela + Bennett is equal (Maybe we later sign Suzuki?)

Crochet, Durbin & Slaten is equal.

Abreu, Durbin & Bennett falls a little short.

If they want Arias, it could be for him, Bennett & Sogard. I'm sure Cincy says no to that one.

Probably no match, here.

[Old Red]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

BTV just tries to identify a player/prospect trade value in dollars. They do not even attempt to investigate what teams need or want.

If we take their numbers and apply it to MLB talent only, it would be a difficult mix to offer, and maybe that's one reason it never happened. (Plus, the Sox were looking at the 2026 playoffs not just the future.)

de la Cruz is worth 94.

72 Tolle

70 Rafaela

64 Arias ("a suspect")

52 Crochet

34 Durbin

33 Abreu

24 Bennett

14 Suarez

11 Slaten & Mead

10 Sogard

9 Anthony

In terms of just numbers, which is all BTV is about...

Rafaela + Bennett is equal (Maybe we later sign Suzuki?)

Crochet, Durbin & Slaten is equal.

Abreu, Durbin & Bennett falls a little short.

If they want Arias, it could be for him, Bennett & Sogard. I'm sure Cincy says no to that one.

Probably no match, here.

No players names were mentioned in anything I read, so who knows, but it wouldn’t surprise me it started with Anthony.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

All I can add reading this discussion while watching two LCS games is that two Hall of Famers in action tonight are named Betts and Ramirez. And maybe Bobby Dalbec is watching them on TV somewhere.

[notin]

3 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Correct.  I expect Story to get hurt and Arias to come in and fill in admirably.  But there is slg lost there, so if we want to improve our slg, thats moving in the wrong direction and so we need a lot of slg help elsewhere.

Im not saying Arias is a bust.  Im just saying that from what I read, we refused to part with him for Elly.  Elly is a freak. Hes faster, stronger, bigger, twitchier, toolsier.  I would trade Arias for Elly, and thats not exactly a knock on Arias.  Arias could be standing behind you at the grocery store and he would like a regular dude.  Elly is larger than life.

Minimal research seems to counter that.  
 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/08/report-red-sox-made-offer-for-elly-de-la-cruz.html

Other sources seem more confident Arias was the centerpiece of the offer.  Cincy just said no, reportedly wanting young, cheap, controllable MLB players. 
 

MLBTR also seems to hint Arias was also offered for Neto and Otto Lopez.  
 

I don’t think Boston is being as stingy with Arias as you think…