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Posted

I hope we win the pennant next year....with whatever roster we have, as long as Tolle and Rut are here. Oh ya--and Abreu and Durbin.

LOL

9 years is too long.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

This also assumes no major injury,

I think we need a major upgrade. I doubt we get Sato or Suzuki, and I'm not sure any other FA would be a major upgrade. That's one reason I was suggesting frameworks for minor upgrades... like Durbin + _____ for a better 3Bman.

There really aren’t.  Josh Bell puts up good StatCast profiles with acceptable stats and can usually be signed for one year.  But he’s not exactly going to satisfy the bloodlust fans have for NL high-priced free agents. 
 

Next year’s free agent class (aka this year’s trade bait) isn’t really any better.  Tucker, Bellinger, Bichette, Freeman, Stanton?  Which one will even be available?  And I don’t consider trading Durbin for Bichette to be an option.  At least not a smart one…

Posted

I don't think we have the trade pieces to get a top quality bat, unless we trade Arias or Anthony. Doing that might seriously hamper the long term outlook of success.

Unless we get an OF'er back in an Anthony trade, we'd be downgrading to a Duran/Yoshida- Jones LF platoon. The upgrade at another position would have to exceed this downgrade significantly.

If we trade Arias for a non SS, we've locked ourselves into Story at SS with back-ups Monasterio (no bat-no glove), Cheng (no bat- good glove) and maybe Sogard (good bat- meh glove.)

I don't see either happening, especially since neither is being paid much in 2027 and the near future beyond '27. If we can't trade for s stud bat, the next idea could be to attempt to trade packages (quantity) for an upgrade (high quality but maybe not starpower.) I don't think this fanbase can stomach another offseason designed to create several mini-upgrades in hopes they all add up to a big enough improvement to see us advance in the 2027 playoffs. I'm not for this approach either, as I think that is what we've done for a few years, and we have gotten to the point where we have no clear and identifiable singular great need at any position. We even have very good depth everywhere, except catcher. We are going to greatly improve our offense and team by replacing only Wong.

In a sense, the summer moves made by Brez can already be viewed as significant upgrades at Catcher with AR and 2B/DH with Mead, and some might view this as enough or possibly enough, if we can stay relatively injury-free into late 2027. I'm not so sure. I'm big on Mead and feel confident AR will add 100+ points to our Catcher OPS, and he plays good defense too.

Here are the numbers put up at 2B and C in 2026:

2B (.673 in 2026)

.737 Seigler in 165 PAs at 2B (.727 overall)

.855 Sogard in 150 PAs (.727)

.564 Mayer in 147 (.594)

.508 IKF in 104 (.633)

.585 Monasterio in 39 (.655)

.760 Romy in 18 (.572)

C (.626 in 2026)

.628 Wong in 226 PA (.655)

.538 Narvaez in 196 (.535)

.702 AR in 116 (.710)

.648 Gasper in 49 (.823)

If Mead hits .763, it's 100 points higher.

If ER hits .726, it's 100 points higher.

One could imagine them both adding 120-150 points, but the back-ups might bring it back down to a 100 point overall positional OPS gain at 2B and C. One could ask, isn't that enough? Add to that methodology the idea that maybe Anthony could his .827, which is 200 points higher than Duran's .627 in 2026, and we could see some major gains on offense with no moves made but much better health.

I'd rather be safe than sorry and try to significantly upgrade one position or maybe two by some tangible amount. I see the SS and LF/DH (the non Roman position) as the top two slots ripe for offensive improvement. Next might be 3B.

 

Posted
1 hour ago, NHNative said:

I hope we win the pennant next year....with whatever roster we have, as long as Tolle and Rut are here. Oh ya--and Abreu and Durbin.

LOL

9 years is too long.

Agreed, and while that 2021 team made a decent run in the playoffs, 1 in 10 years is embarrasing.

I think we have a solid core and solid depth nearly everywhere. We lack a good back-up catcher and minor league SP'er help, but with Crochet, Houck, Crawford and Oviedo all apparently healthy, now, that could be fine or even more than fine.

We have decent quality and quality depth, but we lack star power everywhere but the rotation, top two RP'ers and maybe 1B. We compare well to other teams at Catcher, RF, CF and maybe LF/DH (Anthony) and 2B (Mead/Story,) but don't blow most teams away.

I'd order our current positional comparative value as such:

1. Rotation

2. 8-9th inning RP'ers

3. 1B (Contreras, Mead/Sogard/Romy/Gasper/Casas)

4. RF (Abreu)

5. CF (Rafaela)

6. C (AR but #2 C sucks)

7. 2B/DH (Mead/Story/Sogard/Seigler/Monasterio)

drop off...

8. LF/DH (Anthony, Duran-Jones/White)

9. 6-7-8 SP'ers (Houck, Crawford, Oviedo)

10. 3B (Durbin, Sogard/Monasterio)

drop off...

11. DH (w Anthony in LF & Mead at 2B, we'd have a Yoshida/Gasper and Jone/Romy platoon)

12. SS (Arias/Story)

13. Pen depth (Miller, Weissert, Guerrero, Slaten, Moran...)

Posted
18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't think we have the trade pieces to get a top quality bat, unless we trade Arias or Anthony. Doing that might seriously hamper the long term outlook of success.

Unless we get an OF'er back in an Anthony trade, we'd be downgrading to a Duran/Yoshida- Jones LF platoon. The upgrade at another position would have to exceed this downgrade significantly.

If we trade Arias for a non SS, we've locked ourselves into Story at SS with back-ups Monasterio (no bat-no glove), Cheng (no bat- good glove) and maybe Sogard (good bat- meh glove.)

I don't see either happening, especially since neither is being paid much in 2027 and the near future beyond '27. If we can't trade for s stud bat, the next idea could be to attempt to trade packages (quantity) for an upgrade (high quality but maybe not starpower.) I don't think this fanbase can stomach another offseason designed to create several mini-upgrades in hopes they all add up to a big enough improvement to see us advance in the 2027 playoffs. I'm not for this approach either, as I think that is what we've done for a few years, and we have gotten to the point where we have no clear and identifiable singular great need at any position. We even have very good depth everywhere, except catcher. We are going to greatly improve our offense and team by replacing only Wong.

In a sense, the summer moves made by Brez can already be viewed as significant upgrades at Catcher with AR and 2B/DH with Mead, and some might view this as enough or possibly enough, if we can stay relatively injury-free into late 2027. I'm not so sure. I'm big on Mead and feel confident AR will add 100+ points to our Catcher OPS, and he plays good defense too.

Here are the numbers put up at 2B and C in 2026:

2B (.673 in 2026)

.737 Seigler in 165 PAs at 2B (.727 overall)

.855 Sogard in 150 PAs (.727)

.564 Mayer in 147 (.594)

.508 IKF in 104 (.633)

.585 Monasterio in 39 (.655)

.760 Romy in 18 (.572)

C (.626 in 2026)

.628 Wong in 226 PA (.655)

.538 Narvaez in 196 (.535)

.702 AR in 116 (.710)

.648 Gasper in 49 (.823)

If Mead hits .763, it's 100 points higher.

If ER hits .726, it's 100 points higher.

One could imagine them both adding 120-150 points, but the back-ups might bring it back down to a 100 point overall positional OPS gain at 2B and C. One could ask, isn't that enough? Add to that methodology the idea that maybe Anthony could his .827, which is 200 points higher than Duran's .627 in 2026, and we could see some major gains on offense with no moves made but much better health.

I'd rather be safe than sorry and try to significantly upgrade one position or maybe two by some tangible amount. I see the SS and LF/DH (the non Roman position) as the top two slots ripe for offensive improvement. Next might be 3B.

 

Top quality bat? You mean we have to now trade for one? I thought that was all taken last year when some were available on the market that all they would have cost is money you know like Baltimore did with ALONSO. Trading Arias, or little A might hamper the long term outlook for success? Casas, RAF MAN, Mayer, KC, little A, and Teel were supposed to be the long term access to success. How has that worked out?🙈🤔

Posted
3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Top quality bat? You mean we have to now trade for one? I thought that was all taken last year when some were available on the market that all they would have cost is money you know like Baltimore did with ALONSO. Trading Arias, or little A might hamper the long term outlook for success? Casas, RAF MAN, Mayer, KC, little A, and Teel were supposed to be the long term access to success. How has that worked out?🙈🤔

More aimless gibberish.

Instead of lame questions, why not suggest some answers?

Posted
13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

More aimless gibberish.

Instead of lame questions, why not suggest some answers?

Gibberish? Someone who writes as many word salads as you do shouldn’t be calling anyone out.. I suggested some answers last offseason when there was some production bats available. Everything that you suggest never happens. Why is that.?🤔

Posted

That 2021 team had enough remnants from 2018 to make a nice run. The in-season addition of Schwarber and to a lesser extent Robles, Travis Shaw, Iggy and Austin Davis helped too. Here was the end of season 2021 roster:

SP: Sale, Eovaldi, ERod, Pivetta, Perez

RP: Whitlock, Barnes & Davis (both not on PO roster) Robles, Taylor, Houck, Brasier, Ottavino, Sawamura & DHern

C: Vaz & Plawecki

1B: Schwarber, T Shaw

2B: Arroyo (Arauz not on PO roster)

3B: Devers

SS: Bogaerts (Iggy could not be on PO roster)

LF: Verdugo, D Santana

CF: Kike (Duran not on PO roster)

RF: Renfroe

DH: JD, Dalbec

ERod was a FA to be, and Bogey, Nate, JD, Kike and Vaz had one year left.

SP.com's top prospect list:

1. Casas, 2. Mayer, 3. Yorke, 4. Duran, 5. Downs, 6. Bello

7. Jordan, 8. Groome, 9. Jimenez, 10. Mata, 11. Seabold, 12. Wikelman

13. Winckowski, 14. Murphy, 15. Bleis, 16. Wong, 17. Walter, 18. Song

Many of us felt the outlook was okay, if JH was willing to fill in some holes. There were some aging players and budget questions, but some hopes remained.

IMO, some of the winter additions looked pretty good as Wacha, Hill & Strahm did well, but too many injuries and downturns occurred at once.

__________________________

The roster at the end of 2023 (the Bloom era) was:

SP: Sale, Bello, Pivetta, Houck, Crawford, Kluber/Paxton (IL)

RP: Jansen, Martin (IL) Whitlock, Wink, Bernardino, Schreiber, Murphy, Joely

C: McGuire & Wong

1B: Turner (FA to be) & Dalbec

2B: E Valdez, Reyes

3B: Devers

SS: Story

LF: Abreu, Refsnyder

CF: Rafaela, Duvall (FA to be)

RF: Abreu

DH: Yoshida

Jansen, Martin, Verdugo & Pivetta had 1 year left. Sale had one + an option.

Top Prospects:

1. Anthony, 2. Mayer, 3. Teel, 4. Rafaela, 5 Bleis, 6 Yorke

7. Perales, 8 Abreu, 9 Wikelman, 10. Cespedes, 11 Zanetello

12 Meidroth, 15 Drohan, 18 Romero, 23 Dobbins

 

 

Posted
24 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Gibberish? Someone who writes as many word salads as you do shouldn’t be calling anyone out.. I suggested some answers last offseason when there was some production bats available. Everything that you suggest never happens. Why is that.?🤔

I use my words as they are intended to be used. I don't make up new meanings. When I misuse words or say something I did not intend, I admit my mistake and explain what I meant. I don't deny I said it, double down on gobble-dee-goop or divert the topic to something else, like you do.

I am fully aware my suggestions hardly ever happen. That's not how suggestions are intended to be viewed. For the hundredth time: suggestions are not predictions or projections.

As bad as we are and how bad you think we are, have we been following your ideas and suggestions?

As bad as we are, not following my suggestions could be viewed as a plus for me.

Posted
27 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Gibberish? 

Yes, like 95%. More if you don't count articles, pronouns and conjunctions used correctly.

Posted
12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, like 95%. More if you don't count articles, pronouns and conjunctions used correctly.

More proof. Every time you post its proof, and the more you post the more proof it is. Just not the proof YOU think it is.🤭🙈👋

Posted
43 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I suggested some answers last offseason when there was some production bats available. Everything that you suggest never happens. 

We both wanted Alonso, but apparently only I was wrong, because we didn't sign him. Not you.

I'm suggesting we need to add a big bat this winter. Am I right to assume you don't, since I am "wrong again?"

Posted
2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

More proof. Every time you post its proof, and the more you post the more proof it is. Just not the proof YOU think it is.🤭🙈👋

Thanks for providing even more proof.

Posted

Although cots is no longer the go-to site for accurate contract/tax budget information, they have us at $7.4M over the tax line, assuming all arb players are retained.

It could be easy to get under the line by just non tendering or trading Duran ($10.9 estimated arb cost.) Other arb costs that could be eliminated might beL

$4.8 Houck (I'd keep Tanner.)

$2.8 Crawford (Keeper)

$2.0 Wong (I'd replace with min wage guy.)

$1.9M Romy (Bubble)

$1.8M Oviedo (Keeper)

$1.6M Casas (I'd keep but am okay with non tender/trade)

$1.6M White (I'd keep Jones over him.)

$1.6M Miller (Keeper)

$1.3M Monasterio (I'd trade him.)

$1.3M Weissert (Keeper at this cost.)

$1.1M Kelly (Bubble)

$1M Slaten & Guerrero (Both are Keepers)

$900K Jones (I'd keep over White, as both are out of options.)

Other AAV costs that we could try to trade/dump (part of all of the salary) :

$23.3M Story ($25M salary w $5M buyout for 2028)

$18M Yoshida ($18M then done.)

$7.5M Campbell (Makes $3M in '27, $4M in '28, then 6, 9, 13, 16 and an option at $19M in '33 with $4M buyout.)

If JH does not want to go over the tax line, Brez will have his hands tied, unless he makes some tough non tender choices and/or salary dump sort of trades.

If we make no moves except maybe trading Duran for a prospect to get under the line, and non tendering Wong and trading/DFA'ing Eaton +White (both out of options) Burgos & Olds this could be our 26 and 40:

SP: Crochet, Tolle, Suarez, Bennett, Bello

SP/RP: Houck, Oviedo 

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Miller, Slaten, Guerrero, Moran (out of options)

C: Rutschman & Gasper  

1B: Contreras

2B: Mead

SS: Story

3B: Durbin, Sogard

LF: Anthony, Jones

CF: Rafaela

RF: Abreu

DH: Yoshida, Romy

The 40 in AAA: 

SP: Crawford, Paez, Wehunt (R5) 

RP Weissert, Samaniego, Gamboa, Rivera or Kelly

C: Jo Garcia (R5)

1B: Casas

2B: Seigler

SS: Cheng

3B: Monasterio

OF: Campbell

DH: Brannon (R5)

 

 

 

Posted
26 minutes ago, NHNative said:

Yes--we need an elite bat.

Topic closed.

My guess is 80-90% of us think we need one.

I do think we may get by with the summer add-ons plus a big return by Anthony, but I'm thinking a team needs to constantly improve their roster to stay highly competitive.

Posted

Another big question is how big is the need to replace Gray or get him to return.

One could argue Crochet's return is enough.

One could argue Houck, Oviedo & Crawford's returns could offer enough slack, in case Crochet's return is not as glorious as we hope it is, of if someone else takes a big step back or gets hurt.

I'd love to see us bring Gray back or add another quality SP'ers, but to me the big bat add is priority number one.

(The pen also has needs.)

Posted
5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Another big question is how big is the need to replace Gray or get him to return.

One could argue Crochet's return is enough.

One could argue Houck, Oviedo & Crawford's returns could offer enough slack, in case Crochet's return is not as glorious as we hope it is, of if someone else takes a big step back or gets hurt.

I'd love to see us bring Gray back or add another quality SP'ers, but to me the big bat add is priority number one.

(The pen also has needs.)

Yup--but to say that Gray is a known quantity if healthy.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
6 hours ago, Old Red said:

Top quality bat? You mean we have to now trade for one? I thought that was all taken last year when some were available on the market that all they would have cost is money you know like Baltimore did with ALONSO. Trading Arias, or little A might hamper the long term outlook for success? Casas, RAF MAN, Mayer, KC, little A, and Teel were supposed to be the long term access to success. How has that worked out?🙈🤔

You might be the whiniest person on this forum with your love affair with Pete Alonso.  
 

 

Posted
13 minutes ago, notin said:

You might be the whiniest person on this forum with your love affair with Pete Alonso.  

I wanted Alonso, and I was wrong.

Red wanted Alonso and Brez was wrong.

That sums up how Red sees things.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
26 minutes ago, NHNative said:

Yup--but to say that Gray is a known quantity if healthy.

I’d bring Gray back on his mutual option, but I’d be hesitant on a multiyear deal for a 37yo pitcher coming off a career low fastball velocity…

Old-Timey Member
Posted
8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I wanted Alonso, and I was wrong.

Red wanted Alonso and Brez was wrong.

That sums up how Red sees things.

Unless Gasper makes the team as a BUC, then I’d expect the Sox to non-tender Wong and promote someone like Tomas Nido or Jason Delay,  or sign some boring free (Jake Rogers?) to become the backup catcher…

 

Posted
5 minutes ago, notin said:

Unless Gasper makes the team as a BUC, then I’d expect the Sox to non-tender Wong and promote someone like Tomas Nido or Jason Delay,  or sign some boring free (Jake Rogers?) to become the backup catcher…

I think Gasper's injury may keep him out until April- missing ST'ing.

Maybe we add Jo Garcia (R5) to the 40, but he doesn't seem ready to be the ML back-up.

I think we'll trade Johanfran and Wong and add a Catcher... maybe Rogers.

Posted

Just how good will our everyday player bench be in 2027?

Out of options players make setting the 13 difficult.

C: Rutschman & Wong

1B: Contreras 

2B: Mead

SS: Story

3B: Durbin & Sogard

LF: Anthony & Duran

CF: Rafaela

RF: Abreu

DH: Yoshida & Jones or White

Other than Wong, that's a decent ML bench

AAA/AA bench:

C: Jo Garcia, Nido/Baez, Ro Hernandez/D Rodriguez/H White

1B: Gasper, Casas (Brannon)

2B: Seigler, Rodgers, Cespedes

SS: Arias, Cheng, McDonough, Godbout

3B: Monasterio, Romero, Winnay

LF: Eaton (no options) Castro, Gutierrez

CF: Ward, Bleis, I Jackson

RF: Campbell. J Gonzalez

DH: Romy, Brannon/Hickey, M White

Not great but not bad.

Posted
15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We both wanted Alonso, but apparently only I was wrong, because we didn't sign him. Not you.

I'm suggesting we need to add a big bat this winter. Am I right to assume you don't, since I am "wrong again?"

I was new here a year ago but Moon definitely wanted Alonso… but was definitely more nervous than some other people about years 3-5. I think his biggest thing was the Red Sox weren’t going to spend beyond where they did/ nor get a guy aging in his 30’s. (Moon was right) 

Myself and a few others had convinced ourselves that Red Sox were gonna full send back into top 4 in spending based on Breslow comments late October 2025. That we were gonna get Alonso, resign Bregman, and get a Suarez type guy (But via trade). I wanted Alcantara. 

Posted

 

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Just how good will our everyday player bench be in 2027?

Out of options players make setting the 13 difficult.

C: Rutschman & Wong

1B: Contreras 

2B: Mead

SS: Story

3B: Durbin & Sogard

LF: Anthony & Duran

CF: Rafaela

RF: Abreu

DH: Yoshida & Jones or White

Other than Wong, that's a decent ML bench

AAA/AA bench:

C: Jo Garcia, Nido/Baez, Ro Hernandez/D Rodriguez/H White

1B: Gasper, Casas (Brannon)

2B: Seigler, Rodgers, Cespedes

SS: Arias, Cheng, McDonough, Godbout

3B: Monasterio, Romero, Winnay

LF: Eaton (no options) Castro, Gutierrez

CF: Ward, Bleis, I Jackson

RF: Campbell. J Gonzalez

DH: Romy, Brannon/Hickey, M White

Not great but not bad.

C: Rutschman- I think he has a better 2027 and regains some form and sneakily becomes the WC40 of 2027. 

1B: Contreras- I think who we got the 2nd half of season is more indicative of what 2027 looks like. Age catches all of us and I see WC40 still playing well but not all star caliber.

2B: Mead- wildcard no idea what to expect. If he slumps or sucks Sogard will steady position play. So better than 2026

SS: Story/ Arias- I think eventually Story loses place in lineup and gets DFA’d Arias will be acclimating. Similar production to 2026

3B: Durbin- I think he will have a solid year and step forward again not a ton but slightly.

LF: Anthony- NO F***ING idea. I was one of very few vocally against signing him to extension. Even if he wins MVP I’ll still say it was unnecessary optics game by ownership. I think we will get more production out of LF in 2027 but not insane increase. It will be our least valuable OF position, I think Roman plays less than 110 games again. 

CF: Rafaela- I don’t think he is better in 2027 than 2026. I think he is unbelievable defensively and streaky/ solid at plate #6 bat in lineup. Maybe #7 or 8 on a World Series caliber roster.

RF: Abreu- I don’t think he is better in 2027 than 2026. Good to great defensively and streaky/ solid at plate #5 bat in lineup. maybe a 6 or 7 on a World Series caliber roster. IMO we should look to trade him for someone closer to free agency Big name trade. 

DH: Gasper or Yoshida/ Jones or Gonzalez- The guy that could help this roster would be Casas but I don’t think you can trust him. 
 

possible FA that could help:

Ryan Jeffers: C/ DH could give Rut time at DH occasionally and split the duties. Fit 7/10

Ty France: 1B push WC40 to DH Fit 6/10

Jazz Chisholm: 2B/3B push Mead to DH. Fit 6/10

Brandon Lowe: 2B/DH left handed bat power#’s fit 9/10

Bo Bichette: (doubt he opts out)  2B/3B push Mead to DH fit 9/10

Taylor Ward: LF/ DH professional AB’s great OBP% takes Jones Off team fit 7/10

Randy Arozerena: 32 wants a big contract I don’t see RS signing him LF fit 8/10

 

 

 

 

Posted

I saw a trade on BTV that has really sat with me for last day:

Big pieces: Arias and Abreu for Elly De La Cruz. You could then sign a Taylor Ward to play left and move Roman back to right. 

Or Arias and Anthony for Elly De La Cruz. Ward in LF  

Posted

My Ideal offseason: 

Trade 1: Duran, sogard, mead, Primera = Oneill Cruz

Trade 2: Arias, Abreu, Godbout= Elly De La Cruz

Free Agent: Brandon Lowe 

2027 Lineup:
C: Rutschman S (Wong/ Gasper)

1B: Contreras R 

2B: Lowe L (story)

SS: De La Cruz S (story)

3B: Durbin R

LF: Anthony L

CF: Rafaela R

RF: Cruz L

DH: platoon Yoshida L & Jones/ Story R

AAA/AA bench:

C: Jo Garcia, Nido/Baez, Ro Hernandez/D Rodriguez/H White

1B: Gasper, Casas 

2B: Seigler, Rodgers, 

SS: Cheng, McDonough,

3B: Monasterio, Romero, 

LF: Eaton (no options) Castro, Gutierrez

CF: Ward, Bleis, I Jackson

RF: Campbell. J Gonzalez

DH: Romy, Brannon/Hickey

Posted
14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

My guess is 80-90% of us think we need one.

I do think we may get by with the summer add-ons plus a big return by Anthony, but I'm thinking a team needs to constantly improve their roster to stay highly competitive.

ONE bat? Then I take it that only the other 20% of posters think we need more than one. 

I doubt anyone's counting on a big year from Anthony, at least until we see him in Spring Training -- if there is a ST and if he's even there (Sox may ship him up to Boston to rehab so he's away from all the distractions in Florida).

But why is there already so much speculation here on trading more assets? We had career home run years from Mickey (10), Mona (6), Sogard (5) and Seigler (3)!!!!

I'm not being sarcastic; Brez bragged about it at the presser.

I'm with Maddie -- to paraphrase a 70s expression: this rots.

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