A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I think that Manny and Ortiz kind of backed up each other more than whomever would take over LF or DH if one had to miss a game or a spell of games.  But I do see the value in having capable hitters with minor league options like Gasper for example.  But still, Id like to see us go into next year, with sluggers up and down the lineup, because I dont think its realistic to think that we can have non starting players that can come in and make a difference with the bat.  But Gasper is likely one.  

Your initial worry wasn't Manny and Ortiz backed up each other, but what if one of them got injured? 

Manny and Papi didn't miss considerable time while they were together from 03-07. We don't really know what would have happened. 

Yes, they need more sluggers! Some may need to be on the bench too! 

[drewski6]

38 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Only 11 players hit 35 HR last season. Only 5 went 35-100. People ran Devers away. Sox chose not to sign Schwarber, Alonso or Murakami last offseason. I don't think there's a chance they sign Lowe this offseason. I just don't see this team having a 35 HR guy in the near future. 

Well then I predict another third or fourth place finish, and an easy out from the playoffs.

But if we cant get 35 HR, can we at least get 60+ extra base hits?  I can live with Durbin only having 13 HRs, but you combine that with only one triple, and only 25 doubles, its not enough.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I think that Manny and Ortiz kind of backed up each other more than whomever would take over LF or DH if one had to miss a game or a spell of games.  But I do see the value in having capable hitters with minor league options like Gasper for example.  But still, Id like to see us go into next year, with sluggers up and down the lineup, because I dont think its realistic to think that we can have non starting players that can come in and make a difference with the bat.  But Gasper is likely one.  

Agreed.

Do you have any hopes for Mead?

I realize his 17 HRs and .851 OPS this year was just a half season in an unremarkable career, but he's 25.  It's not like a 21 y/o Grissom batting .790 in his first quarter season of his career, but I understand Mead is no cinch at being an Silver Slugger either.

I think AR can raise our Catching OPS bt 100 or maybe even 150 points, but he won't hit 35-100.

I keep waiting for Abreu to "bust out," but I'm resigned to accepting him as he is a more than good enough.

I'm one of the few that see upgrading Durbin as a good idea, I doubt Brez is even considering it.

Rafaela is my favorite player, but his offense has likely peaked, and we could see a decline in 2027 from him. I know D means more to me than you, but I keep  him around.

I'd like to see us add Sato and doubt we outbid everyone for Suzuki. BLowe sucks vs LHPs and Arozena could be the next Yoshida. We don't have the trade capital to get a top quality bat, unless we part with Arias or Anthony plus others.

[NHNative]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Who is on the block?

HRs 2025-2026

101 Schwarber (156 XBH)

87 Caminero (141 XBH)

85 Ohtani (159 XBH but 99 in 2024!)

83 Raleigh (122)

81 Alonso (127 XBH)

(79 Sato with 160 XBHs- is more than any above.)

76 PCR

75 E Suarez

72 Devers & Goodman

71 Judge

70 Soto & Olson

67 Rice

66 B Lowe (FA)

61 Wood

60 Buxton & Adell

58 Suzuki (FA)

57 Machado, Torkelson & Kurtz

56 Harper & C Walker

54 J Rod, Langeliers & Busch

53 Arozena (FA,) Carroll & Neto

52 Lindor, Grisham, Abrams, de la Cruz & Montgomery

51 Adames & S Perez

50 KMarte, Tatis,Pages & Chisholm (FA)

 

Suzuki and Sato.

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed.

Do you have any hopes for Mead?

I realize his 17 HRs and .851 OPS this year was just a half season in an unremarkable career, but he's 25.  It's not like a 21 y/o Grissom batting .790 in his first quarter season of his career, but I understand Mead is no cinch at being an Silver Slugger either.

I think AR can raise our Catching OPS bt 100 or maybe even 150 points, but he won't hit 35-100.

I keep waiting for Abreu to "bust out," but I'm resigned to accepting him as he is a more than good enough.

I'm one of the few that see upgrading Durbin as a good idea, I doubt Brez is even considering it.

Rafaela is my favorite player, but his offense has likely peaked, and we could see a decline in 2027 from him. I know D means more to me than you, but I keep  him around.

I'd like to see us add Sato and doubt we outbid everyone for Suzuki. BLowe sucks vs LHPs and Arozena could be the next Yoshida. We don't have the trade capital to get a top quality bat, unless we part with Arias or Anthony plus others.

Yes, I think that Mead and Adley are giving us a significantly higher starting point than we would otherwise have.  Im happy for them.  What I dont want , is someone to come along and tell me that Im too greedy for suggesting we still try to add an elite hitter. Or that the offense, with these two, if stays healthy, might be top 15 in OBP.  I want to strive to be top ...... ONE in offense.

Not saying we need to be best offense. Just saying that we shouldnt accept settling for top 10 or top 12.

Im a cant have enough thud kinda guy.  Whereas people say "cant get enough pitching" - I say "cant get enough guys who meet the ball out in front and drive it with their legs"  Im not a fan of staying back, Im not a fan of working counts....Im a fan of the mindset that an 0-0 count is a fastbll count and you want to jump on the first thing straight.

 

[drewski6]

I want guys to want to swing the bat.  

[drewski6]

If you wave at a slider running away from you on a 2-2 count, I say : how did you let the count get that deep?  Did you not get any fastballs?

[drewski6]

Im still absolutely shocked we had a chance to get Elly and didnt close.  Over Arias? A 5'11 D first guy is gonna stop you from getting a 40HR-40SB 6 ft 6, absolute freak of an athlete?

To me, that is so heartbreaking.

[drewski6]

Elly is exactly the type of player we need.  

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Well then I predict another third or fourth place finish, and an easy out from the playoffs.

But if we cant get 35 HR, can we at least get 60+ extra base hits?  I can live with Durbin only having 13 HRs, but you combine that with only one triple, and only 25 doubles, its not enough.

17 players had 60+ XBHs and a few more would have with 600-650 PAs.

Devers was 4th with 74. 

Abrams & Alonso 67.

Bregman 63 & Suzuki 58.

Abreu & Schwarber 66.

BLowe 65

Neto & Bregman 63.

Arenado & KMarte 56

Contreras had 51 in 535 PAs, so about 61 per 650.

Rafaela had 51 in 576, so about 57 per 650.

Gasper was near 60 per 650 (20 in 225)

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Yes, I think that Mead and Adley are giving us a significantly higher starting point than we would otherwise have.  Im happy for them.  What I dont want , is someone to come along and tell me that Im too greedy for suggesting we still try to add an elite hitter. 

That won't be me, despite me often saying we need pitching.

My top priority would be someone like Sato or de la Cruz. Maybe Abrams.

I'm willing to give up Arias, Valera, Delzine & Soto.

I can be talked into Arias and Justin Gonzales or Primera.

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Elly is exactly the type of player we need.  

You’re probably going to have to start with little A, and go from there, and it most likely take more than last year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

24 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Maybe some of us have defense , chase value, and focus on homegrown youngsters fatigue.  Arias is a 5'11 D first SS.  I dont think hes coming to save the singles hitting, walk drawing, plate passives that the Red Sox have become.  

No, but could he inject some youthful exuberance into this morbid offense? Who knows, chances are he becomes part of the K machine comprised of other top prospects and stiff veterans. 

But what if he doesn't flop -- young guys come up and find instant success every year, and get votes for AL Rookie of the Year (Boston has had its share the past half century).

Lookit Joshua Baez -- that kid literally from Boston and not Cohasett or Walpole who led the minors in longballs: 3 HRs in his first big league game! And then he only  struck out 33 times in his next 100 times up.

[notin]

37 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Well then I predict another third or fourth place finish, and an easy out from the playoffs.

But if we cant get 35 HR, can we at least get 60+ extra base hits?  I can live with Durbin only having 13 HRs, but you combine that with only one triple, and only 25 doubles, it’s not enough.

If a 35 HR hitter is vital to winning, bear in mind only one hitter (Caminero) of the 11 to hit 35 Hr is still playing.

At one point you saud you wanted 20HR hitters up and down the lineup.

Well if the lineup has:

C: Rutschman

1b: Contreras

2b: Mead

3b: Durbin

SS: Story

LF : Duran

CF: Rafaela

RF: Abreu

DH: Anthony

then that’s pretty much what you have.  Rafaela, Durbin, Mead and Anthony have not hit 20HRs yet.  But Mead had 17 in 285 ABs. Rafaela was close with 18.  Anthony certainly has the power to hit 20.   
 

That just leaves Durbin as the least likely.  Is that really so bad?

[notin]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

You’re probably going to have to start with little A, and go from there, and it most likely take more than last year.

That’s not unrealistic.

There’s certainly a chance they insist on Tolle or no deal.  
 

We here can’t compare it to last year’s price, since none of us know it.  But even if it’s less, it’s not going to be noticeably less…

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

That’s not unrealistic.

There’s certainly a chance they insist on Tolle or no deal.  
 

We here can’t compare it to last year’s price, since none of us know it.  But even if it’s less, it’s not going to be noticeably less…

I am going on the assumption that little A has lost some of his luster since the WBC, and his two month paid vacation in Florida this past year.

[Old Red]

52 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

If you wave at a slider running away from you on a 2-2 count, I say : how did you let the count get that deep?  Did you not get any fastballs?

Boggs could get away with that, because after watching 2 strikes down the middle he could foul off 6-7 tough pitches just to get to another pitch he could hit. Casas, and little A would go down 0-2 and then swing at a bad pitch, or take one on the corner for strike three.