A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[mvp 78]

34 minutes ago, notin said:

Giving up 18 runs in two games also played a part…

If Tracy thought his team could score more than 2 runs, maybe he manages differently? 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

So you think the Giants are going to give up on Devers? I guess they don’t value 37-93 all that much either…

He made a silly post about Cora and Devers going to NYY earlier. No incentive for SF to move Devers. If Cora doesn't want the PHI job with Dombo, he's clearly sitting out next year. 

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

So you think the Giants are going to give up on Devers? I guess they don’t value 37-93 all that much either…

That’s 37-98. I think San Fran would like to get out from underneath that contract, and I’m pretty sure the Yankees would love to have Raffy Yo think Raffy could’ve, and would’ve helped the Red Sox against the Yankees the last two postseasons especially in Yankee Stadium?🤔

[JoeBrady]

On 10/3/2026 at 1:09 PM, moonslav59 said:

I'm counting on Duran being gone. I could be wrong. I think we trade White or Jones. 

I'm not counting on Anthony, although I think he can be a big plus to our offense, if he stays on the field (or in the dugout as a DH.)

I'm not a Story-hater, but certainly he is one we can identify as "upgradeable." He can't be easily traded, but I would if Arias is slotted as out 2027 SS. If not, he's my back up SS and can share time with Mead at 2B or DH some.

Mead can DH and back up Contreras at 1B, but if Anthony is the DH with BLowe in LF, there is no room for Mead to DH. If Anthony is in LF, then Mead can DH and BLowe can play 2B.

So, no Duran or Story allows for us to hedge against Anthony's health and still play BLOwe, Anthony and Mead FT, if they are all healthy at the same time. Rotating the 3 through the DH slot could help them all stay fresh or still play through an injury that does not affect their batting,

I'm a big Arias fan, but just to let those who think I over-hype prospects too much, I'm not expecting more than a .720 OPS and plus defense from Arias in year one. I am fully aware he may hit .650, too, but if we keep Story as depth, we are at the same point as now. Otherwise, we'll rely on Monasterio, Cheng or Sogard in a pinch. (I doubt Godbout will be a 2027 factor.)

BLowe gives us a big power boost. He bats LH'd and does struggle vs LHPs, so it would be a lot of money to pay for someone who may be best used as a platoon player. He his .548 v L in '25 and .648 v L this year. His career mark is .684, so he's gotten worse as he ages. He just turned 32, so there is that issue as well, but many other choices out there have the same issues of play positions that cause the same or more complex maneuvering.

Lowe has 66 HRs in the past 2 years (59 2B+3B)in 1209 PAs. I'd like a better OBP than .320, but I think this is my top bat to target. I can be convinced to change my mind.

 

 

You might not want to count on Anthony, but he is certainly starting.

Whether it is Story or Arias, SS will be manned by a RS player.

Over the past couple of years, Mead and Lowe have similar fielding stats.  So for all practical purposes, you would be adding LH semi-platoon player, that you'll be paying for ages 32-33-34, and maybe 35, and throwing in a draft pick.  He's good, but I don't see the long-term value.  For me, he has a certain Marte feel to him, like a very good player about to go sideways.

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He made a silly post about Cora and Devers going to NYY earlier. No incentive for SF to move Devers. If Cora doesn't want the PHI job with Dombo, he's clearly sitting out next year. 

Silly? If the Yankees fired Boone, and offered the job to Cora I think Cora would love to stick it to the Red Sox, and what better way  to do it than in a Yankee uniform. San Fran was listening to, and gauging offers for Raffy before the last trade deadline, so I don’t think that moving him would be that far fetched.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

That’s 37-98. I think San Fran would like to get out from underneath that contract, and I’m pretty sure the Yankees would love to have Raffy Yo think Raffy could’ve, and would’ve helped the Red Sox against the Yankees the last two postseasons especially in Yankee Stadium?🤔

Why would they want to get out from under that contract? They haven't been able to secure a power hitter in years and now they finally have one. No FA will ever sign there. Devers isn't moving for a while. He's too valuable for them. 

[Old Red]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Tracy thought his team could score more than 2 runs, maybe he manages differently? 

Exactly, and so would the Yankees.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/3/2026 at 6:41 PM, notin said:

Why would the Sox sign a 31yo left-handed Curtis Mead coming off the best season of his career?  Lowe isn’t the difference maker the Sox need; he’s redundant here, and 3 years from now folks will be trying to package him and his last two years off like they are Yoshida and Story.

The only free agent bat that is intriguing me is Teruaki Sato, who is basically Murekami but with some OF skill. .392 OBP and .660 SLG in Japan.  After the successesghggg that Murakami and (to some degree) Okamoto had this year, I hope the Sox can be more involved.

I replay in order, without looking at subsequent posts, but that's my feeling as well.  All these deals look good for one, year.  And occasionally 2.  Seldom anything past age 33.

[JimEd]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

It seems like they weren't serious with Bregman anyway??? I think they are still stuck in the "player = $ value per spreadsheet" and won't stretch themselves. Until they realize that you pay a premium to buy FA's, the same way you pay a premium at the trade deadline, they will never be serious bidders in the offseason. 

but they'll be "interested" in everybody. LOL.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/4/2026 at 10:58 AM, JAG said:

Lowe will help in 2027 and lets worry about 2028 after next season

That's what we said about Yoshida and Story.  I have some tolerance some  end-of-career write-offs, but you might be lose half your investment.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

You might not want to count on Anthony, but he is certainly starting.

Whether it is Story or Arias, SS will be manned by a RS player.

Over the past couple of years, Mead and Lowe have similar fielding stats.  So for all practical purposes, you would be adding LH semi-platoon player, that you'll be paying for ages 32-33-34, and maybe 35, and throwing in a draft pick.  He's good, but I don't see the long-term value.  For me, he has a certain Marte feel to him, like a very good player about to go sideways.

I agree.

If Duran is gone, mead could DH, so Lowe could play 2B. I've soured on Lowe some, because he sucks vs lefties.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

It seems like they weren't serious with Bregman anyway??? I think they are still stuck in the "player = $ value per spreadsheet" and won't stretch themselves. Until they realize that you pay a premium to buy FA's, the same way you pay a premium at the trade deadline, they will never be serious bidders in the offseason. 

I disagree some on if the Red Sox were serious about retaining Bregman. Your definition of serious, and Breslow’s definition of serious most likely are two different things. I think Breslow was pretty sure of himself, and found out he shouldn’t have been. Alonso signed a month before Bregman did, so he was off the table, and when Bregman went to Chicago Breslow spent most of Bregman’s money on Ranger. Not the plan, but, because of the plan.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/4/2026 at 12:47 PM, Old Red said:

You think the Atlanta GM was shocked Boston was willing to throw in so much money?

Define 'so much'.  Based on his recent history, what was the going rate for someone Sale?

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Giving up 18 runs in two games also played a part…

True, but that was more of an aberration than the feeble offense was.  We were 3rd in runs allowed and 23rd in runs scored.

 

[Bellhorn04]

10 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Define 'so much'.  Based on his recent history, what was the going rate for someone Sale?

Very low, that's why it made more sense to keep him and hope.

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, Old Red said:

when Bregman went to Chicago Breslow spent most of Bregman’s money on Ranger. Not the plan, but, because of the plan.

That didn't happen. They still had enough money to give Breggie a good offer. They just wouldn't give him a NTC. 

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Very low, that's why it made more sense to keep him and hope.

All it cost Atlanta that year in actually cash value was $500,000 for Sale to win a CY for them.🤭

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

That didn't happen. They still had enough money to give Breggie a good offer. They just wouldn't give him a NTC. 

Yes that was at the end, but Breslow pissed Bregman off with the first contract offer he made to him, and then didn’t believe that Bregman had that contract offer from the Cubs. That was all explained out by AJ.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That didn't happen. They still had enough money to give Breggie a good offer. They just wouldn't give him a NTC. 

Yes, in  rare moment in Sox missed signings history, it wasn't about the money.

I know we coulda really used Bregman, last year, especially looking at how he did better than I and others expected, but going forward, I'd rather have Durbin & Suarez than Bregman at more money.

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

True, but that was more of an aberration than the feeble offense was.  We were 3rd in runs allowed and 23rd in runs scored.

 

The feeble offense was what got the Red Sox to get 14 games under to begin with, and why they sputtered after the 32-5 run, which carried into the postseason.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, in  rare moment in Sox missed signings history, it wasn't about the money.

I know we coulda really used Bregman, last year, especially looking at how he did better than I and others expected, but going forward, I'd rather have Durbin & Suarez than Bregman at more money.

Bregman was pretty much healthy last year, and even with the slow start it really wasn’t surprising where he ended up. I said when the Red Sox originally signed him that the three years was the right amount of time to be signed for. 

[JoeBrady]

On 10/4/2026 at 7:53 PM, moonslav59 said:

$8-9M is just too much. 

I'm not sure I'd pay $4-5M, when we already have Anthony, Rafaela & Abreu.

Depth: Yoshida, White & Jones (AAA: Eaton, Ward & Campbell)

Name a better choice to replace:

C- Rutschman, 1B- Contreras, 2B-Mead/Story, SS- Arias/Story, 3B- Durbin, LF-Anthony, CF- Rafaela, RF- Abreu, DH- Yoshida/Gasper/Romy/Jones/Sogard

Maybe DH? Nobody else is close.

That was my point earlier.  We don't really have an opening for someone who is just a 'good hitter'.  Two considerations:

• Rutschman, Contreras, Mead, Durbin, Anthony, Ceddanne, Abreu, and Yoshida all project to OPS' of over 100.  The only position that projects to under 100 is SS, and it hard to get a slugger at SS, and we very likely will go with Story and then Arias.
• We ranked 10th last year in OPS at DH.  We don't really have any real holes in the offense.  Unless we obtain a Yordie type of player, anyone else we acquire won't move the needle.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

That was my point earlier.  We don't really have an opening for someone who is just a 'good hitter'.  Two considerations:

• Rutschman, Contreras, Mead, Durbin, Anthony, Ceddanne, Abreu, and Yoshida all project to OPS' of over 100.  The only position that projects to under 100 is SS, and it hard to get a slugger at SS, and we very likely will go with Story and then Arias.
• We ranked 10th last year in OPS at DH.  We don't really have any real holes in the offense.  Unless we obtain a Yordie type of player, anyone else we acquire won't move the needle.

Fangraphs has them at 12th and that include 6 HR in 100 PA from Gasper, which he is unlikely to repeat.

LF - 26th

3B - 16th

SS - 22nd

2B - 23rd

C - 25th

[moonslav59]

48 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

That was my point earlier.  We don't really have an opening for someone who is just a 'good hitter'.  Two considerations:

• Rutschman, Contreras, Mead, Durbin, Anthony, Ceddanne, Abreu, and Yoshida all project to OPS' of over 100.  The only position that projects to under 100 is SS, and it hard to get a slugger at SS, and we very likely will go with Story and then Arias.
• We ranked 10th last year in OPS at DH.  We don't really have any real holes in the offense.  Unless we obtain a Yordie type of player, anyone else we acquire won't move the needle.

The thing is being over 100 is not enough, when you hardly have any of them over 110.

We have some top WAR players but not enough top batters.

300+ PAs (267 player sample size)

fWAR

31 Rafaela 4.1

34 Contreras 4.0

55 Abreu 3.3

63 Durbin 3.1

No top 30 WAR players, despite only 30 teams. Three in top 60 is okay: 4 in top 63 is better than most teams, but now look at wRC+

4th Contreras 151 

90th Abreu 112

110th Rafaela 109

155th Durbin 100

Having the 4th best was great, then WTH!!!

Abreu was 81st in OPS, and Ceddanne was 96th. Unacceptable. 

Those two are fine, but they should be the 4th and 5th best hitters- not 2nd and 3rd.

 

[moonslav59]

I like the idea of having a balanced line-up, but we still need more than one star batter.

[NHNative]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I like the idea of having a balanced line-up, but we still need more than one star batter.

I agree that we have a decent solid team, but it seems obvious to me we still need an elite level bat to help push us the that next level. Someone to truly make pitchers concerned.

[moonslav59]

56 minutes ago, NHNative said:

I agree that we have a decent solid team, but it seems obvious to me we still need an elite level bat to help push us the that next level. Someone to truly make pitchers concerned.

1 really good one still makes us rely on Mead and or Anthony to have a big year, so 2 would be better.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/5/2026 at 1:15 AM, Randy Red Sox said:

and you know he will get hurt at some point.

Duran?  Duran has never been hurt.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/5/2026 at 8:40 AM, mvp 78 said:

Lowe has no power to LF. Per Statcast, Fenway would be absolutely terrible for his swing.

Since 2021, 7/29 with -0- HRs.  SSS warning, but it makes sense.

[Behindenemylines]

We need a right handed 20+ HR bat at minimum. Two would be better! Maybe one a FA signing and the other via trade. You can not play in Fenway and be at the bottom of the league hitting homers.