A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

A look back at the non-flashy Brez trades last winter- many designed to clear up roster slots, Rule 5 and options issues.

A flurry of RP'ers dealt on NOV 18

Hoppe for Heyman

Bernardino for Ward

Murphy for Ronny Hernandez

Luis Guerrero for T Gray (later on 1/21 traded for Nate Baez)

DEC 4: Jh. Garcia & Travieso for Oviedo, Samaniego and A Gusman

DEC 9: Grissom for Isaiah Campbell

DEC 10: Reimer for Rule 5 Watson

DEC 15: Perales for Bennett

FEB 1: Hicks & Sandlin (2 PTBNL) for Ziehl

The Bennett & Oviedo trades were more mid-level, but the other deals are still mainly TBD.

I expect several similar type deals this NOV>DEC, unless a lockout changes things up.

 

when would the lockout be?

 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

when would the lockout be?

 

I'm not sure, but I think the last one cancelled the Rule 5 draft. I think it was early DEC 2021.

[moonslav59]

Soxprospects.com really likes Durbin as the 400+ PA Utility guy, and I'm thinking he and Sogard would make a nice bench.

Sign Soto.

Arias at SS

Mead at 2B (DH)

[Old Red]

Final stats 2026, and what’s needed for 2027.

DUBin. 13 HR- 64 RBI

Raffy. 37 HR-98 RBI

Bregman. 28 HR-93 RBI

 

Con Man. 27 HR-81 RBI

Alonso. 43 HR-113 RBI 

The Red SOX were 23rd in runs, and 26th in HR, With 23 less HR than last year, , 18th in OPS. Seems like the Red Sox were on the short end of what they could have had. I know you guys are hung up on OPS, but HR, and RBI actually go on the scoreboard, and count. Raffy, Bregman, or Alonso in some kind of combination could have been on the team this year. For 2027 the Red Sox will still be looking for more HR, and RBI.🤔

[moonslav59]

There are two major connotations for the word "con, " and neither fit Willson.

Just because his name starts with Con doesn't mean the nickname fits.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

There are two major connotations for the word "con, " and neither fit Willson.

Just because his name starts with Con doesn't mean the nickname fits.

You’re right it’s just part of his name just like Ref Man, and RAF Man, and that’s how I used it. Of course you took it way out of context looking for something to complain about. Bottom line you can whine and complain about it all you want as you have been, but the CON man will stick.🙈😂😭

[notin]

24 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Final stats 2026, and what’s needed for 2027.

DUBin. 13 HR- 64 RBI

Raffy. 37 HR-98 RBI

Bregman. 28 HR-93 RBI

 

Con Man. 27 HR-81 RBI

Alonso. 43 HR-113 RBI 

The Red SOX were 23rd in runs, and 26th in HR, With 23 less HR than last year, , 18th in OPS. Seems like the Red Sox were on the short end of what they could have had. I know you guys are hung up on OPS, but HR, and RBI actually go on the scoreboard, and count. Raffy, Bregman, or Alonso in some kind of combination could have been on the team this year. For 2027 the Red Sox will still be looking for more HR, and RBI.🤔

HR and RBI might go on the scoreboard, but the only stat that counts is wins.  Houston lead MLB in home runs.  They also finished .500.  That might work in the pathetic AL West, but the Sox don’t play in the worst division in MLB history..  
 

RBI is a little more predictive of team performance, but because it’s more closely related to runs scored.    Much like OBP.   In fact, OBP probably ties more directly to runs scored, which ties more directly to wins.  RBI are not really a skill; OBP puts the guy on bad to get knocked in.

Home runs are nice, and I wouldn’t turn down a home run hitter.  But offense comes from getting on base.

[NHNative]

How about Toll Man

[Old Red]

Just now, NHNative said:

How about Toll Man

I forgot about him. Also Kut Man.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Old Red said:

You’re right it’s just part of his name just like Ref Man, and RAF Man, and that’s how I used it. Of course you took it way out of context looking for something to complain about. Bottom line you can whine and complain about it all you want as you have been, but the CON man will stick.🙈😂😭

There is context to the name con.  I did not invent that or whine about it. I simply pointed out your nickname does not fit, and you whine about me pointing out the truth.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

HR and RBI might go on the scoreboard, but the only stat that counts is wins.  Houston lead MLB in home runs.  They also finished .500.  That might work in the pathetic AL West, but the Sox don’t play in the worst division in MLB history..  
 

RBI is a little more predictive of team performance, but because it’s more closely related to runs scored.    Much like OBP.   In fact, OBP probably ties more directly to runs scored, which ties more directly to wins.  RBI are not really a skill; OBP puts the guy on bad to get knocked in.

Home runs are nice, and I wouldn’t turn down a home run hitter.  But offense comes from getting on base.

HR, and RBI produce runs, which I agree leads to wins. getting on base is always nice before a HR, but lots of guys who get on base don’t end up scoring, where a HR does EVERY time. You guys can keep your OPS, and I’ll keep my HR, and RBI.

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

There is context to the name con.  I did not invent that or whine about it. I simply pointed out your nickname does not fit, and you whine about me pointing out the truth.

CON Man stays, as does little pinky Anthony. Next.😂😂😭

[NHNative]

I have come to enjoy these early morning discussions at talksox.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, NHNative said:

I have come to enjoy these early morning discussions at talksox.

I start with the Big Jab myself.

[NHNative]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I start with the Big Jab myself.

Goes well with coffee.

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

when would the lockout be?

 

12/1/26

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure, but I think the last one cancelled the Rule 5 draft. I think it was early DEC 2021.

There are discussions with the MLBPA about keeping the Rule 5 draft no matter what, but we'll see. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

HR, and RBI produce runs, which I agree leads to wins. getting on base is always nice before a HR, but lots of guys who get on base don’t end up scoring, where a HR does EVERY time. You guys can keep your OPS, and I’ll keep my HR, and RBI.

Baseball is a weird sport in that it’s the only one where we don’t look at the guy who scored as the offensive talent.  He gets viewed as the Beneficiary of Happenstance.  After all, all he did was get on base in front of the real run producer.   But that getting on base part is an important skill.  Yes, more runners on men does mean more men left on base.  But I’ll take that for an improved offense.  When folks think of the late, great Rickey Henderson, they think of stolen bases.  No one’s first notion of him is he is the all time leader in runs scored, or that he is second all time in walks (and might be first if teams didn’t stop pitching to a steroid-laden Barry Bonds), or that his career OBP stayed above .400 despite playing well past 40.

Home runs are exciting, And dramatic.  Carlton Fisk.  Kirk Gibson.  Joe Carter.  Stuff of legends.  But also not really a large part of the game. Teams get over 6,000 plate appearances in a season.  Citing an instance that happened in 140 of them that needs to happen in 160 of them really isn’t necessarily a major improvement.  I’d rather see a team go from getting on base 1900 times to getting on base over 2000 times.  (Or both improvements, even better.)

The Sox might add a home run bat.  But they’ve always had those and it didn’t always work.  They didn’t start winning titles until they took OBP seriously under Epstein.  Why they stopped is a mystery to me…

 

[NHNative]

Perfect example is this years streak.

[notin]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

HR, and RBI produce runs, which I agree leads to wins. getting on base is always nice before a HR, but lots of guys who get on base don’t end up scoring, where a HR does EVERY time. You guys can keep your OPS, and I’ll keep my HR, and RBI.

The teams ranked 1st, 2nd and 3rd in home runs have all been bounced from the postseason.  The teams ranked 22nd and 29th have advanced to the LCS (as did the team ranked 8th).

Home runs are nice, but not the end all offensive stat…

[mvp 78]

Red Sox 04

Sox 10 HR/Yanks 9 HR

Sox 4 HR/Cards 2 HR

The team with more HR won each series. 

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, notin said:

The teams ranked 1st, 2nd and 3rd in home runs have all been bounced from the postseason.  The teams ranked 22nd and 29th have advanced to the LCS (as did the team ranked 8th).

Home runs are nice, but not the end all offensive stat…

HOU and CHC had terrible pitching. CHC was 2nd in OBP and got bounced.

[mvp 78]

PIT - 4th in OBP

MIA - 6th in OBP

COL 7th in OBP

WSN - 8th in OBP

DET - 10th in OBP

[notin]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

HOU and CHC had terrible pitching. CHC was 2nd in OBP and got bounced.

Ok but they’ve always had point is HRs aren’t this end-all offensive stat.  
 

Chicago pribably had the best offense in MLB.  They scored fewer runs in the postseason than Boston did, and did so against lesser starting pitchers…

[notin]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

PIT - 4th in OBP

MIA - 6th in OBP

COL 7th in OBP

WSN - 8th in OBP

DET - 10th in OBP

And where did many of those teams rank in runs scored?

[mvp 78]

Just now, notin said:

Ok but they’ve always had point is HRs aren’t this end-all offensive stat.  
 

Chicago pribably had the best offense in MLB.  They scored fewer runs in the postseason than Boston did, and did so against lesser starting pitchers…

Teams need to be well rounded. Sox had no power. 

[mvp 78]

Just now, notin said:

And where did many of those teams rank in runs scored?

3rd, 6th, 7th, 14th, 18th

Not a perfect indicator for runs. I think SLG is a bit better.

[notin]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Teams need to be well rounded. Sox had no power. 

Neither do Tampa and Milwaukee.

Maybe those teams will address that when their seasons finally end…

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Neither do Tampa and Milwaukee.

Maybe those teams will address that when their seasons finally end…

If MIL can't get to the WS again, they should. Tampa at least has Caminero that can get to 40. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If MIL can't get to the WS again, they should. Tampa at least has Caminero that can get to 40. 

Tampa's first three hitters in the batting order were better than Boston's all year. And they didn't turn invisible vs. NY: Yandy, Aranda and Junior had 10 hits in the sweep.