A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[drewski6]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Arias wasn't involved in the discussions at the time. 🤷‍♂️

Maybe thats why the trade didnt happen.

[mvp 78]

Just now, NHNative said:

I don't see them letting Elly go. The guy is a monster.

Reds have a lot of needs and don't want to spend. Elly is their best asset to obtain more players. They aren't going to extend him apparently. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

Maybe thats why the trade didnt happen.

Maybe it centered around Eyanson? IDK.

[drewski6]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Reds have a lot of needs and don't want to spend. Elly is their best asset to obtain more players. They aren't going to extend him apparently. 

So they likely want guys with team control on the cheap? And multiple of them.  Have you given any thought to what youd offer?

[drewski6]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Maybe it centered around Eyanson? IDK.

Well, sh*t

[drewski6]

That doesnt help us today

[NHNative]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Reds have a lot of needs and don't want to spend. Elly is their best asset to obtain more players. They aren't going to extend him apparently. 

I suppose. Who knows, but we sure could use him.

[NHNative]

Its nutz... projected Red Sox payroll for 27 is half what it was for 26.

Gets some power dudes!

[mvp 78]

Just now, drewski6 said:

So they likely want guys with team control on the cheap? And multiple of them.  Have you given any thought to what youd offer?

Sox don't have anyone that is untradeable. Elly is more valuable trade wise than probably anyone except Tolle? I'd deal any of the prospects. I'd deal anybody on the 40 man. Tolle probably doesn't work unless it's 1 for 1 and I don't think Breslow does that. 

Durbin, Arias, Gonzales, Delzine? 

Elly SS, Story 2B, Mead 3B

Big problem for 2028 though as half the IF leaves in the offseason. 

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox don't have anyone that is untradeable. Elly is more valuable trade wise than probably anyone except Tolle? I'd deal any of the prospects. I'd deal anybody on the 40 man. Tolle probably doesn't work unless it's 1 for 1 and I don't think Breslow does that. 

Durbin, Arias, Gonzales, Delzine? 

Elly SS, Story 2B, Mead 3B

Big problem for 2028 though as half the IF leaves in the offseason. 

I mean throw 350m at elly the second you get him.

[drewski6]

he might say no, lol.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, NHNative said:

Its nutz... projected Red Sox payroll for 27 is half what it was for 26.

Gets some power dudes!

Spotrac has it at $248M. 

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox don't have anyone that is untradeable. Elly is more valuable trade wise than probably anyone except Tolle? I'd deal any of the prospects. I'd deal anybody on the 40 man. Tolle probably doesn't work unless it's 1 for 1 and I don't think Breslow does that. 

Durbin, Arias, Gonzales, Delzine? 

Elly SS, Story 2B, Mead 3B

Big problem for 2028 though as half the IF leaves in the offseason. 

I love Gonzales, but if the names going the other way dont include tolle, i cant see me saying no

[drewski6]

not to imply i have a say

[moonslav59]

45 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The report was that Bloom had a trade on the table that would have eaten the entire salary the year before. Waited too long and had to throw in $17M? The decision making of the FO is very interesting for sure. 

I've heard that report. I'm not defending the $17M, but Sale at full salary for grissom was never going to happen.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I love Gonzales, but if the names going the other way dont include tolle, i cant see me saying no

Me either. I just think trades like 4 for 1 are kind of stretching it TBH. That's probably the max amount of players going the other way.

Sale, Kimbrel and Crochet were all traded for 4 prospects. Seems like the right number. 

Adley was traded for 5 players at the deadline, which seems like more and more of an overpay.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I've heard that report. I'm not defending the $17M, but Sale at full salary for grissom was never going to happen.

Sox just picked the wrong prospect TBH.

[NHNative]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Spotrac has it at $248M. 

Future Payroll Trends: Payroll is expected to decrease significantly in subsequent years due to contract expirations and the Devers trade. Projections from RosterResource estimate the 2027 payroll at $138.3 million and the 2028 payroll at $108.7 million. However, Spotrac projects a higher 2027 Luxury Tax Payroll of $291.1 million, likely reflecting different roster assumptions or bonus structures.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, NHNative said:

Future Payroll Trends: Payroll is expected to decrease significantly in subsequent years due to contract expirations and the Devers trade. Projections from RosterResource estimate the 2027 payroll at $138.3 million and the 2028 payroll at $108.7 million. However, Spotrac projects a higher 2027 Luxury Tax Payroll of $291.1 million, likely reflecting different roster assumptions or bonus structures.

I don't know how they are losing 100M of payroll this offseason. SoxProspects has it at 216M while excluding Sonny Gray and ARB for 14 players. 

[Old Red]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't know how they are losing 100M of payroll this offseason. SoxProspects has it at 216M while excluding Sonny Gray and ARB for 14 players. 

Don’t the Sox owe $10M on his buyout?

[NHNative]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't know how they are losing 100M of payroll this offseason. SoxProspects has it at 216M while excluding Sonny Gray and ARB for 14 players. 

Ya that first number caught my attention and I quit reading.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I fully grasp all the reasons to keep Sale. I was the one who coined the "Cris Freakin' Sale" nickname, when we got him. I loved the trade. I loved the extension, unlike many. I believed and believed and believed and believed, then I gave up.

It would be like trading Story and then he hits .310 with 40 Hrs.

Now I will revert to the context thing.  Pitching is different.  You can never have enough pitching, and the only add we made was Giolito.  As I said before the Sox had very little to lose by keeping Sale.  To me that's really the bottom line, the nothing to lose part.

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox just picked the wrong prospect TBH.

At the time, Grissom seemed more promising than anyone else we had, and I had hopes he might fix a position in flux since the Pedey injury. We swung and missed at a position we needed badly.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Now I will revert to the context thing.  Pitching is different.  You can never have enough pitching, and the only add we made was Giolito.  As I said before the Sox had very little to lose by keeping Sale.  To me that's really the bottom line, the nothing to lose part.

I agree, and what made it even worse was when Gio went down. 

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't know how they are losing 100M of payroll this offseason. SoxProspects has it at 216M while excluding Sonny Gray and ARB for 14 players. 

+$6M IKF and $9M Sandoval, and it still seems way off.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Don’t the owe $10M on his buyout?

Either 10M or add on another 20M for the option.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

At the time, Grissom seemed more promising than anyone else we had, and I had hopes he might fix a position in flux since the Pedey injury. We swung and missed at a position we needed badly.

Good thing 2b is finally pinned down!

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Now I will revert to the context thing.  Pitching is different.  You can never have enough pitching, and the only add we made was Giolito.  As I said before the Sox had very little to lose by keeping Sale.  To me that's really the bottom line, the nothing to lose part.

I get it. I'm always for more pitching, especially high quality pitching.

I'm also for pitchers who pitch. I wasn't sure Sale could ever reach high quality again, either. I didn't see paying $27M for a big question mark as being a sure keeper.

We needed a 2B real bad. My point has been there was some logic to the trade- not that it was riskless or even a good trade at the time. Initially, I did not like the deal, so really, I get your points and don't disagree.

There was a chance Sale never pitcher 100 IP in a season again and or never went under a 4.00 ERA again.

There was a chance Grissom would solve the 2B issue- kinda like a chance Jeter Down would be our SS, except Grissom had some MLB production under his belt already.

The deal ended up being the worst one in half a century. Maybe Bagwell beats it out.

 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Good thing 2b is finally pinned down!

I know you don't trust Mead. I suppose he could be the next Grissom, but I'm thinking he's be one of our top 3-4 batters next season and maybe 1 or 2.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I know you don't trust Mead. I suppose he could be the next Grissom, but I'm thinking he's be one of our top 3-4 batters next season and maybe 1 or 2.

I know he’s hit 17 dingers last year, but he bounced around from team to team, and position to position. He’ll get a chance next year if not traded again. Time will tell.