A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Why? He had one good year after his control years ended, then meh.

Because they wouldn't have signed Trevor Story and Xander has been better than Story has been. 

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Crawford is 31 and has 2 arb years left. He was our IP leader in 2024, again, not that long ago. The 95 ERA+ was underwhelming, but his 113 ERA+ in 2023 made many of us feel he could be a real good one. My guess is, since he has an option left, he may start the season in AAA.

 

How many innings pitched since '24? 

[Old Red]

22 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

How many innings pitched since '24? 

2024 was a long time ago, and while the Kut Man was serviceable I never had any feelings he could be a real good one.

[Hugh2]

31 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Because they wouldn't have signed Trevor Story and Xander has been better than Story has been. 

I think it's blatantly obviously not signing Xander and making another move for SS was the right move.  

I think it's ALSO blatantly obviously that the corresponding move to sign Trevor Story was not the right move.  Certianly not in hindsight. 

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

How many innings pitched since '24? 

Therein lies the rub, but when I asked that about Sale, I was lambasted.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

I think it's blatantly obviously not signing Xander and making another move for SS was the right move.  

I think it's ALSO blatantly obviously that the corresponding move to sign Trevor Story was not the right move.  Certianly not in hindsight. 

BINGO

I remember asking, if extending Bogey at even $200M/8 would have been worth it. That was 1-2 years before he bolted.

(IMO, no way he'd have taken that, so he should have been a goner.)

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Because they wouldn't have signed Trevor Story and Xander has been better than Story has been. 

Like those were the only 2 SSs in MLB?

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Old Red said:

2024 was a long time ago, and while the Kut Man was serviceable I never had any feelings he could be a real good one.

There was a little hope after '23. He stated he was injured throughout much of '24 and that caused his increase in HR. If that's the case, he's been injured for 28 straight months. 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I think it's blatantly obviously not signing Xander and making another move for SS was the right move.  

I think it's ALSO blatantly obviously that the corresponding move to sign Trevor Story was not the right move.  Certianly not in hindsight. 

Either extend Xander OR don't sign Story and sign Dansby Swanson instead. 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Therein lies the rub, but when I asked that about Sale, I was lambasted.

Kutter never had a Sale peak. Holding out hope for a return of a back end guy? Who cares? You can sign a '24 Crawford this offseason for nothing. You find Sean Newcombs just laying around the garage! 

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

BINGO

I remember asking, if extending Bogey at even $200M/8 would have been worth it. That was 1-2 years before he bolted.

(IMO, no way he'd have taken that, so he should have been a goner.)

I remember predicting an extension of around 217/8 and not a soul thought he could come anywhere near touching that. But that just seems to always be the MO.  We constantly underpredict two things.  A. The cost of free agents, and the cost of trade acquasitions.  Just as a general practice we should realize any FA is going to cost much more than what we think they will.  But the Bogaerts deal was just stupid on top of stupid.  It might go down in history as one of the worse contracts. 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

BINGO

I remember asking, if extending Bogey at even $200M/8 would have been worth it. That was 1-2 years before he bolted.

(IMO, no way he'd have taken that, so he should have been a goner.)

No, they needed to extend him prior to that. 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Like those were the only 2 SSs in MLB?

That was the clear choice Bloom made.

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Therein lies the rub, but when I asked that about Sale, I was lambasted.

Oh no! Not lambasted! Is that the same Chris Sale the Red Sox gave to Atlanta along with $17M to win a CY for a suspect who couldn’t even win the 2B, because the Red Sox had so many other good candidates there.🤭

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

No, they needed to extend him prior to that. 

Yes DD messed up IMO with the original 6 year extension.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

52 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Because they wouldn't have signed Trevor Story and Xander has been better than Story has been. 

Bogaerts is not only a winner and still playing, but made three keys plays to keep SD alive last night. On one, his dive in the hole stopped a single from driving in a run, then he turned a nice 6-3 DP to end the game. His best move came as a baserunner, twisting to avoid both the batted ball and broken bat to score the winning run on a head-first slide.

For some reason -- only on this forum -- Xander gets a bad rap for his days as a Red Sox shortstop, usually from posters relieved that Bloom didn't resign him so Henry could avoid spending the savings on other good position players.

But I suggest he's the best all-around Red Sox shortstop in the past half century, better than Nomar. There's no definitive choice based on career WAR: Bogaerts 44.3, Garciaparra 44.3.

Some may argue for Garciaparra and his spectacular offense, but context is important... he played in an inflated era. More context: Nomar won one Silver Slugger as the AL's top-hitting SS (in neither year he won batting crowns); Xander won six Silver Sluggers... and two World Series rings.

 

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Bogaerts is not only a winner and still playing, but made three keys plays to keep SD alive last night. On one, his dive in the hole stopped a single from driving in a run, then he turned a nice 6-3 DP to end the game. His best move came as a baserunner, twisting to avoid both the batted ball and broken bat to score the winning run on a head-first slide.

For some reason -- only on this forum -- Xander gets a bad rap for his days as a Red Sox shortstop, usually from posters relieved that Bloom didn't resign him so Henry could avoid spending the savings on other good position players.

But I suggest he's the best all-around Red Sox shortstop in the past half century, better than Nomar. There's no definitive choice based on career WAR: Bogaerts 44.3, Garciaparra 44.3.

Some may argue for Garciaparra and his spectacular offense, but context is important... he played in an inflated era. More context: Nomar won one Silver Slugger as the AL's top-hitting SS (in neither year he won batting crowns); Xander won six Silver Sluggers... and two World Series rings.

 

Well said.

 

[Old Red]

30 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Like those were the only 2 SSs in MLB?

You wanted the Red Sox to sign Baez. Who only basically played SS for Detroit for a couple of years.

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

You wanted the Red Sox to sign Baez. Who only basically played SS for Detroit for a couple of years.

Baez before he hit FA had 31/29/34 HR's.  

If he was a FA this year or last year every commenter on this board would be saying we should sign him. 

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Either extend Xander OR don't sign Story and sign Dansby Swanson instead. 

I was on the Swanson train

29 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Yes DD messed up IMO with the original 6 year extension.

an opt out is player friendly, which likely lowers the AAV a guy is willing to accept.  To entice Bogaerts to sign without a player opt out he would likely of been making 30 per year instead of 25 and of paid for the another 4 years. 

If that was the case, he'd at this point in time be on contract for another 2 years and probably put up a 32.1 WAR during the term of that contract. Which would make him worth about 2/3 of the contract.  Honestly, probably worth it for a homegrown player and certainly worth more than Trevory Story has been. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Oh no! Not lambasted! Is that the same Chris Sale the Red Sox gave to Atlanta along with $17M to win a CY for a suspect who couldn’t even win the 2B, because the Red Sox had so many other good candidates there.🤭

More proof of any lack of reading comprehension.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Bogaerts is not only a winner and still playing, but made three keys plays to keep SD alive last night. On one, his dive in the hole stopped a single from driving in a run, then he turned a nice 6-3 DP to end the game. His best move came as a baserunner, twisting to avoid both the batted ball and broken bat to score the winning run on a head-first slide.

For some reason -- only on this forum -- Xander gets a bad rap for his days as a Red Sox shortstop, usually from posters relieved that Bloom didn't resign him so Henry could avoid spending the savings on other good position players.

But I suggest he's the best all-around Red Sox shortstop in the past half century, better than Nomar. There's no definitive choice based on career WAR: Bogaerts 44.3, Garciaparra 44.3.

Some may argue for Garciaparra and his spectacular offense, but context is important... he played in an inflated era. More context: Nomar won one Silver Slugger as the AL's top-hitting SS (in neither year he won batting crowns); Xander won six Silver Sluggers... and two World Series rings.

 

Since '22, Xander's defense has been very good as well. For a team that wants to be solid up the middle for 162 games, the Sox would have been better off keeping Xander. 

He's also a good clubhouse guy and easy to root for. 

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

I was on the Swanson train

an opt out is player friendly, which likely lowers the AAV a guy is willing to accept.  To entice Bogaerts to sign without a player opt out he would likely of been making 30 per year instead of 25 and of paid for the another 4 years. 

If that was the case, he'd at this point in time be on contract for another 2 years and probably put up a 32.1 WAR during the term of that contract. Which would make him worth about 2/3 of the contract.  Honestly, probably worth it for a homegrown player and certainly worth more than Trevory Story has been. 

If DD would have given say 25 per year instead of 20 when he signed that 6 year extension with the opt out his contract would have been up after the 2025 season.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Baez before he hit FA had 31/29/34 HR's.  

If he was a FA this year or last year every commenter on this board would be saying we should sign him. 

I didn't want him when he was a FA. DET was probably the worst park for him to sign with. He may haven't cratered as much if he signed in BOS. 

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Baez before he hit FA had 31/29/34 HR's.  

If he was a FA this year or last year every commenter on this board would be saying we should sign him. 

Well he’s not, and he hasn’t exactly worked out to well for Detroit.

[oldtimer]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

A look at the 2027 Outfield and DH

Anthony, Rafaela and Abreu could be the best 1-2-3 OF in MLB- when combining O and D. You all know my feelings on Duran, and I saw an $11M arb estimate on him, today: bye-bye Jarren. I'm fine with Yoshida, White and Jones as subs. AAA had Ward, KC and out of options Eaton. Maybe Justin Gonzales rises to near MLB ready by mid season- likely not.

DH can be upgraded, but a platoon formed from these guys could do fine: Yoshida, Anthony (Duran in LF) Gasper, Romy, Jones and Sogard. Maybe we sign Suzuki and DH Anthony.

I thought Anthony, Rafaela and Abreu all demonstrated weaknesses at the plate, especially in September and against playoff level pitching. Anthony took pitches on the plate and got deep in the count, then offering at balls off the plate, Rafaela was back to his old habits of chasing while Abreu seems to live and die with a massive swing.. That said, the outfield is pretty well set, particularly if we part with Duran, who will be overpriced.

I see our infield as Durbin, Arais, Mead and Contreras. I would cut ties with a Story if he is  tradable. Yes, there are risks with that approach. Arais is unproven at  the ML level but is a superior defensive player to Story, Mead will probably give us a solid bat with power and again it is a hope that Contreras has some life left at his age. Rutschman is our best bet at catcher and I thought he was giving us solid at bats at  the end of season. Yoshida is probably remaining with us and he is a pesky hitter but has little power. 

Chasing any of these players off in order to retain a proven but expensive big bat is not necessarily an improvement. Who would be replaced? Yoshida. I definitely wouldn't trade Arais and Mead may well partially fulfill our need for power. Who else? An outfielder? I  can see Brez struggling with some decisions going forward.

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Since '22, Xander's defense has been very good as well. For a team that wants to be solid up the middle for 162 games, the Sox would have been better off keeping Xander. 

He's also a good clubhouse guy and easy to root for. 

Well said. Good clubhouse guy, and you didn’t hear anything bad about him except on here as some said he was a good enough SS for them.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

You wanted the Red Sox to sign Baez. Who only basically played SS for Detroit for a couple of years.

Among others, yes.

I'm never afraid to admit I was wrong. (Note: it's not a sign of weakness.)

[Hugh2]

21 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Well he’s not, and he hasn’t exactly worked out to well for Detroit.

And therein lies the problem, we sign free agents and evaluate them for what they've done but that often does align with what they will do.  Some guys just fall off a cliff.  We have our own guys who fit the bill too. 

[NHNative]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Among others, yes.

I'm never afraid to admit I was wrong. (Note: it's not a sign of weakness.)

I was wrong once in '75. Didn't think they'd win...I was weak.