Red Sox Pre-Offseason Mega Thread

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Hitch said:

A lot of question marks there. And very little depth.

I'm not sure how many teams have better 5-6-7 depth than Houch. Crawford and Oviedo.

Maybe less than 15?

I'm more worried about our 8-9-10, and we've needed to go this deep often in recent years:

Paez, Wehunt & Holobetz

One thing looks different, this year:

Known pitcher injuries over the winter....

In 2023 we had  our biggest injury issue SP'er still on the team: Sale and we added Kluber- another huge injury starter. We also knew Paxton needed time to return from injury, and Bello began the season on the IL.

In 2024, Gio began the season on the 60. We also had Whitlock starting. Our AAA depth was Fitts, Criswell, Gambrell and Van Belle.

In 2025, we began the season knowing GIO would need time to return, and we signed Sandoval, knowing he'd be out until AUG. (He never started one game in '25 and missed most of '26, too.) Bello and Crawford also began the season on the IL.

In 2026, we knew Houck, Crawford and Sandoval would miss significant time before the season started.

For 2027, every SP'er ended the previous season pitching and seemingly healthy. That's a new one.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Boston needs to add legit big league bats this offseason, but I'm here again to say the Sox are not two more bats away from winning the World Series. 

That's because the rest of their batting order is just not championship quality.

Breslow won't even know how good or bad the offense is until he sees if Mead and Rutschman are fully healed -- and that right there won't be determined until they possibly start raking in Spring Training.

So it's highly doubtful Ole Brez will trade more prospects for more hitting this winter.

And he better not trade Arias or Gonzales -- two potential elite bats moving fast through the system... who will soon be playing for MLB minimum wage.

That has to be the selling point to John Henry, who merely has to agree to spend so Breslow can sign a few free agents who can help. 

[NHNative]

Repeat Pete here...

;-)

We have a pretty darn good core we just need a couple three changes.

A power bat and if Gray leaves, two pitchers---one elite and another one notch down and couple slammers.

Fellas that streak proved something...why the heck the other 2/3 tanked, who knows.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Boston needs to add legit big league bats this offseason, but I'm here again to say the Sox are not two more bats away from winning the World Series. 

That's because the rest of their batting order is just not championship quality.

I know you don't mean all nine batters need to be at or near all star quality, but what is "championship quality?"

Look at the numbers of the remaining 3 team's line-ups 1 to 9.

It's impossible to predict health, so normally we compare each line-up based on good health and then maybe adjust on how good each team's bench looks. 

To say we are 3 or more bats away from WS quality is way off, IMO. To me, we need just one elite bat. Two would be great, but let's just assume 1. I'll use Suzuki to make it simple.

Top 9 bats 1 to 9:

BOS: Suzuki, Contreras, Anthony, Mead, Abreu, AR, Rafaela, Durbin, Story/Arias

MIL: Truang, Bauers, Chourio, Contreras, Mitchell, Yelich, Ortiz, Frelick, DHam/Vaughn

TBR: Caminero, Y Diaz, Aranda, L Hicks, DeLuca, Simpson, Palacios, Walls, Mullins/Mesa

CLE: Ramirez, DeLaute, Kwan, A Martinez, Bazzana, Rocchio, Manzardo, Schneemann, Adell/Hoskins

LAD & NYY have very good 1-9 batters, but consider this: out of every teams' top 9 batters by PAs...

The Yanks had 3 guys under .655, 5 under .711 and 8 under .768 (Granted Judge was 10th at .871, but counting him still leaves 3 under ,644, 5 under .711 and 7 under .768.)

LAD had 2 batters under .715 and 3 under .759, yet they didnt make the WS.

MIL had 3 under .692 and 5 under .758

TBR had 4 under .689! and 6 under .728!

CLE had 4 under .688, and 8 under .756!

BOS had 3 under .665 (Monasterio, Duran & Story, but maybe none of them start next year.) 5 under .727 (Sogard and Durbin) Add Mead, Anthony and AR, who were not top 9 in PAs on the BOS team and we have ...

.901 Contreras

.851 Mead

.823 Gasper  

.773 Abreu

.761 Rafaela

.746 Yoshida

.735 Anthony

.740 AR

.727 Sogard/ .727 Seigler

.710 Durbin

Without adding anyone, we could have 

zero under .710, 2 under .740, 4 under .760

 

 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, NHNative said:

Repeat Pete here...

;-)

We have a pretty darn good core we just need a couple three changes.

A power bat and if Gray leaves, two pitchers---one elite and another one notch down and couple slammers.

Fellas that streak proved something...why the heck the other 2/3 tanked, who knows.

1 elite bat gets in the top 3-6 teams in MLB.

2 excellent bats gets us in top 2-5 teams.

Either of these two plus a good SP'er or Morejon would put us top 2-3.

I'm thinking 1 or two major adds is enough, because we have Crochet, Houck, Crawford, Oviedo, Anthony, Mead and AR looking at full seasons. That's 4-5 significant additions right there beofr e we add anybody.

[jdc69]

4 hours ago, Old Red said:

I understand that numbers tell a story,  but so does a feel for the game. I’m sure numbers would have told Grady to take Pedro out before he did against the Yankees in 2003, but so shouldn’t a feel for the game. If the numbers said to bring Miller into the game in a one run game in the 5th inning not once, but twice especially the way MIller had pitched the past few weeks it shows how flawed those numbers were. A feel  for the game should have told you otherwise whether to take Gray out to begin let alone bringing in Miller. Flawed decision all the way around…

I'd say both examples, Grady leaving Pedro in and Tracy taking Gray out, are examples of Red Sox players not being the reasons for a loss, and that's BS. 

[Bellhorn04]

50 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

1 elite bat gets in the top 3-6 teams in MLB.

2 excellent bats gets us in top 2-5 teams.

Either of these two plus a good SP'er or Morejon would put us top 2-3.

I'm thinking 1 or two major adds is enough, because we have Crochet, Houck, Crawford, Oviedo, Anthony, Mead and AR looking at full seasons. That's 4-5 significant additions right there beofr e we add anybody.

Houck and Crawford are question marks because they've been out of action so long.  Plus they weren't pitching that well when we last saw them.  They are just hopeful depth.

[Old Red]

44 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Houck and Crawford are question marks because they've been out of action so long.  Plus they weren't pitching that well when we last saw them.  They are just hopeful depth.

I agree. You can call anyone depth, but to count on so many coming back from long injuries is as you say wishful, hopeful depth, which even you could say to some extent about Crochet who isn’t depth, but coming back from basically being out most of the year.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Houck and Crawford are question marks because they've been out of action so long.  Plus they weren't pitching that well when we last saw them.  They are just hopeful depth.

They are certainly questionable, but both pitchers were good pitchers who got hurt and are healthy, now. Like about 75% of pitchers these days.

Maybe they weren't pitching well when we last saw them, because of the injury later discovered.

BTW, last time we saw Crochet pitch, he wasn't too good, either.

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, jdc69 said:

I'd say both examples, Grady leaving Pedro in and Tracy taking Gray out, are examples of Red Sox players not being the reasons for a loss, and that's BS. 

If Tracy leaves Gray in for two more innings, the Sox still lose that game. The bullpen totally imploded against NYY. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A take on OBP: it's great to have batters consistently get on base, but as we've seen the past few years in Boston, that doesn't necessarily correlate to wins. 

None of it matters if batters can't drive in baserunners.

Check out regular season league rankings for Red Sox' world champs. 

2018: 1st in OBP, BA, R, RBI

2004: 1st in OBP, BA, R, RBI

2013: 1st OBP, R, RBI; 2nd BA

2007: 2nd OBP, 3rd R, RBI, 5th BA (this was the only offense of the four that led the AL in LOB, then they batted .318 in the ALCS, .333 in the WS).

... obviously runs scored and runs batted in are connected -- and some posters may argue both are just team stats reliant on opportunity. But you still have to deliver: runners still have to tally and batters still have to bring them home.

2026: 4th OBP, BA, 3rd LOB... because 11th R, 9th RBI (both below league average).

 

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Tracy leaves Gray in for two more innings, the Sox still lose that game. The bullpen totally imploded against NYY. 

Good possibility, but it was still a dick move to take Gray out, and bring in Miller time for the second night in a row GEEK wise, or a feel of the game. 

[mvp 78]

2018: SLG 1

2013: SLG 1

2007: SLG 6

2004: SLG 1

 

2026: SLG 20

Gee, I wonder what changed about their contact to have them not drive runners in? 

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

A take on OBP: it's great to have batters consistently get on base, but as we've seen the past few years in Boston, that doesn't necessarily correlate to wins. 

None of it matters if batters can't drive in baserunners.

Check out regular season league rankings for Red Sox' world champs. 

2018: 1st in OBP, BA, R, RBI

2004: 1st in OBP, BA, R, RBI

2013: 1st OBP, R, RBI; 2nd BA

2007: 2nd OBP, 3rd R, RBI, 5th BA (this was the only offense of the four that led the AL in LOB, then they batted .318 in the ALCS, .333 in the WS).

... obviously runs scored and runs batted in are connected -- and some posters may argue both are just team stats reliant on opportunity. But you still have to deliver: runners still have to tally and batters still have to bring them home.

2026: 4th OBP, BA, 3rd LOB... because 11th R, 9th RBI (both below league average).

 

9th in home runs in 2018, but they still hit 208. Hitting 23 less homers this past year from the year before certainly contributed to scoring 97 less runs.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Good possibility, but it was still a dick move to take Gray out, and bring in Miller time for the second night in a row GEEK wise, or a feel of the game. 

First and third with Cody Bellinger up for the third time. Give Gray a shot, but there's a chance it's the season right there anyway. 

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

2018: SLG 1

2013: SLG 1

2007: SLG 6

2004: SLG 1

 

2026: SLG 20

Gee, I wonder what changed about their contact to have them not drive runners in? 

Contact, or personnel?

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

First and third with Cody Bellinger up for the third time. Give Gray a shot, but there's a chance it's the season right there anyway. 

No one is disputing that it’s the season. It’s Miller Time for the second night in a row. Not a good feel, or computer numbers.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

2026: SLG 20

Gee, I wonder what changed about their contact to have them not drive runners in? 

Don't worry, your'e so happy that Devers, Bregman, Alonso and Schwarber aren't on the team so their billionaire owner doesn't have to pay them for the rest of this decade or until the world blows up.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Don't worry, your'e so happy that Devers, Bregman, Alonso and Schwarber aren't on the team so their billionaire owner doesn't have to pay them for the rest of this decade or until the world blows up.

And yet the talk continues that the Red Sox STILL need a BIG bat, or two.🤔

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

And yet the talk continues that the Red Sox STILL need a BIG bat, or two.🤔

That's only us, Red Sox Nation, and the local and national media.

Meanwhile in the front office, Breslow has walls covered in two-way mirrors so he can watch his VPs and R&D demonstrate how they're going to train the existing roster to make better contact and power up. 

[JimEd]

42 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

A take on OBP: it's great to have batters consistently get on base, but as we've seen the past few years in Boston, that doesn't necessarily correlate to wins. 

None of it matters if batters can't drive in baserunners.

Check out regular season league rankings for Red Sox' world champs. 

2018: 1st in OBP, BA, R, RBI

2004: 1st in OBP, BA, R, RBI

2013: 1st OBP, R, RBI; 2nd BA

2007: 2nd OBP, 3rd R, RBI, 5th BA (this was the only offense of the four that led the AL in LOB, then they batted .318 in the ALCS, .333 in the WS).

... obviously runs scored and runs batted in are connected -- and some posters may argue both are just team stats reliant on opportunity. But you still have to deliver: runners still have to tally and batters still have to bring them home.

2026: 4th OBP, BA, 3rd LOB... because 11th R, 9th RBI (both below league average).

 

dude....don't you know those are old school back-of-the-baseball-card stats and don't matter. why? because, that's why.

today you have to look at BABIPs and FIPS, OPS+, SqUpCon, SqUpSw  and launch angles and barrels and hard-hit rate and soft-hit rate, splits, handstands and somersaults. because the nerds, thats why.

somewhere along the way, John Henry forgot what won 4 championships.

[JimEd]

19 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

That's only us, Red Sox Nation, and the local and national media.

Meanwhile in the front office, Breslow has walls covered in two-way mirrors so he can watch his VPs and R&D demonstrate how they're going to train the existing roster to make better contact and power up. 

and then hire more guys like Kyle Boddy WHO NEVER WENT TO BAT IN A MAJOR LEAGUE GAME IN HIS LIFE as hitting instructors and tell the players to ignore guys like Jim Rice. because nerds, thats why.

[Hitch]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure how many teams have better 5-6-7 depth than Houch. Crawford and Oviedo.

Maybe less than 15?

I'm more worried about our 8-9-10, and we've needed to go this deep often in recent years:

Paez, Wehunt & Holobetz

I don't know how many teams have a 5th starter with a 10 ERA when starting last year and showed he could only do it out of the bullpen, a 6th who hasn't pitched a start in a year and half, a 7th who hasn't pitched in two years, and 8th who barely pitched for a year either, but that isn't depth, that's a wing and a prayer. Especially as none of us would be really surprised if Crotchet breaks down in Spring Training.

[mvp 78]

47 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Don't worry, your'e so happy that Devers, Bregman, Alonso and Schwarber aren't on the team so their billionaire owner doesn't have to pay them for the rest of this decade or until the world blows up.

Actually, they were 6th in CBT payroll in 2026! He couldn't possibly afford any other players! He paid nearly 2M more per win than the Rays!!! He's a very benevolent owner who treats us piggies very well... 

[mvp 78]

47 minutes ago, Old Red said:

And yet the talk continues that the Red Sox STILL need a BIG bat, or two.🤔

Whether it's one or two, they just need a complete top of the order. Roman and Contreras aren't enough for 1 - 4. They need two more guys in there. 

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, JimEd said:

somewhere along the way, John Henry forgot what won 4 championships.

Nerds.

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, JimEd said:

and then hire more guys like Kyle Boddy WHO NEVER WENT TO BAT IN A MAJOR LEAGUE GAME IN HIS LIFE as hitting instructors and tell the players to ignore guys like Jim Rice. because nerds, thats why.

Every hitting instructor in the org is a Driveline guy FWIW. 

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I don't know how many teams have a 5th starter with a 10 ERA when starting last year and showed he could only do it out of the bullpen, a 6th who hasn't pitched a start in a year and half, a 7th who hasn't pitched in two years, and 8th who barely pitched for a year either, but that isn't depth, that's a wing and a prayer. Especially as none of us would be really surprised if Crotchet breaks down in Spring Training.

Bello's starter ERA was 7.18 not 10, and it was 0.48 in his last 4 games (3GS.)

Check other team's 5-6-7-8, and you will see most have the same or worse than ours.

I'm not so much saying our is good as I am saying others are worse.

Many other teams have pitchers returning from long IL stints or crappy seasons. Some have never ever looked even average.

[Old Red]

41 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Nerds.

Papi, Many, Mookie, and Schil just to name a few were nerds? Millar maybe.

[Old Red]

44 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Whether it's one or two, they just need a complete top of the order. Roman and Contreras aren't enough for 1 - 4. They need two more guys in there. 

Still counting on little A? little A was MIA last year.