Red Sox Pre-Offseason Mega Thread

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, NHNative said:

Myself--I am making a large 10 qt. Lodge Dutch oven of bison meat chili.

Now its simmering all day along with me simmering over Tolle and Gray yanked.

The chili sounds good as does the first simmering. Not so much the second simmer that hasn’t diminished any since it happened.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 10/13/2026 at 4:56 AM, notin said:

I assume Crawford is the 4th…

yes probably.  other than a healthy Crochet even though we have some better than average SP watching the post season we don't match up. Not in the BP either.

[Randy Red Sox]

5 hours ago, notin said:

I think most people happy the Dodgers are out just don’t want the same team winning every year (unless it’s Boston).  And some also don’t like the Dodgers habit of exploiting their TV deal advantage to purchase titles…

Brewers won with amazing pitching and timely hitting.  Nice story.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 10/15/2026 at 4:58 PM, moonslav59 said:

This is the risk they get hurt or greatly underperform?

If so, it amounts to losing about 1.25 starters. (Maybe 40-42 GS) I might project more like 50-55 GS.

In house solutions?

IMO, Houck should start the year in the pen and stay there, but I'm not sure how Brez & Co. view him. He ended the season healthy and pitching. If you put him at 50% and as a SP, he could start 15 games.

Crawford should remain a starter, IMO. He was ready to start the last game in AAA, but it was cancelled. Maybe count him as 60%. That's 12 GS.

Oviedo is hard to project, but he was healthy, too and is a SP'er. How about 50% and 15 GS.

If all three are starters, maye they give 42+ GS with a possibility of 90 GS if 100% healthy all year long.

I doubt Brez adds a stud pitcher. I don't think he planned on Suarez, this year, and Crochet can be viewed as Gray's replacement.

The scary part is Paez is the only AAA guy on the 40. Wehunt is Rule 5 and may be added. Holobetz and Ziehl could be added, when and if needed, but none of these guys wow me at all.

I could see Brez adding another Oviedo type, but maybe he gets lucky and adds another Bennett type.

None of these guys you mention are close to a sure bet to be anything more than BP bit pieces {Houck} or bottom end SP. Some on here consider P to be a strength but it doesn't come close to matching the Brewers. If you get past a healthy Crochet and a developing Tolle we are not in the league with the true contenders.  Tolle made good strides with his off speed stuff this yr but there is still room for growth there.  

[NHNative]

9 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

None of these guys you mention are close to a sure bet to be anything more than BP bit pieces {Houck} or bottom end SP. Some on here consider P to be a strength but it doesn't come close to matching the Brewers. If you get past a healthy Crochet and a developing Tolle we are not in the league with the true contenders.  Tolle made good strides with his off speed stuff this yr but there is still room for growth there.  

I have been saying all along that Tolle has the potential to be one of the best.

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

None of these guys you mention are close to a sure bet to be anything more than BP bit pieces {Houck} or bottom end SP. Some on here consider P to be a strength but it doesn't come close to matching the Brewers. If you get past a healthy Crochet and a developing Tolle we are not in the league with the true contenders.  Tolle made good strides with his off speed stuff this yr but there is still room for growth there.  

We may not match the Brewers or their 2027 outlook, but our top 7-8 SP'ers are likely going to be ranked top 3 in projections, even without Gray.

I fully agree the guys I mentioned are close to sure bets. Crochet, Houck, Crawford and Oviedo all need to prove they are healthy and back to somewhat the same form they once were. Having 3 as our 6-7-8 guys is not as bad as what other teams have in those slots, this time of year.

The Brewers have Priester as a possible comeback story, but he had less proven success before his major injury than our 4 guys.

I'm not in the camp of posters who think any young pitcher who jumps their IP in a season is destined to get hurt, just because Crochet, Crawford and others did, but the is an added aspect of concern and worry for a guy like Misiorowski, who went from 66 to 175 IP, this year. (129 IP in 2025, if you add AAA IP.) He's the best pitcher in MLB, today, so I'm not trying to downplay his value.

I'm not all that impressed with the future outlooks of their other starters. Here are their IP leaders and 2026 ERAs:

125 Drohan 4.19

116 Harrison 4.20

109 Gasser 3.87

106 Patrick 3.40 (mostly in relief)

98 Henderson 2.47

97 Sprout 5.57

None of these guys are 28, yet, but they don't Wow me, even adding Priester.

2nd Half (last 66 games on '26) GS ERA

12 2.12 Misiorowski

12 2.19 Henderson

11 2.86 Glasser

10 5.60 Drohan

10 5.65 DMay (replace Harrison)

7 7.31 Harrison

The Brew Crew has some major questions on their 2027 rotation and SP'er depth.

 

 

[moonslav59]

On 10/16/2026 at 12:34 PM, a700hitter said:

Do we even know what Oviedo’s problem is and how it is being addressed?

He had a flexor strain injury and came back in September to pitching the minors. He should be healthy for ST'ing.

Crawford injured his flexor while trying to comeback from another injury. He was scheduled to start the final AAA game of the season, but it was cancelled due to weather. He should be ready for ST'ing.

Crochet and Houck were pitching at the end of the 2026 season and should be ready for ST'ing.

I'm not projecting greatness, especially out of the gate, but these guys are not like how Sandoval, Crawford and Houck looked, last winter. We knew all of them would be out for a while to start the season.

No SP'ers is projected to miss the first day of ST'ing. That's is rare for the Sox.

 

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, NHNative said:

I have been saying all along that Tolle has the potential to be one of the best.

I always liked him, but I was slow to join the "could be a great one" club.

Silly me!

I'd rank our starters like this going into 2027:

1. Crochet

1A. Tolle

3. Suarez

4. Bennett

5. Bello

6. Houck (if not forced into pen role)

7. Crawford

8. Oviedo

9. Paez

10. Holobetz or Wehunt (not on current 40)

[NHNative]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I always liked him, but I was slow to join the "could be a great one" club.

Silly me!

I'd rank our starters like this going into 2027:

1. Crochet

1A. Tolle

3. Suarez

4. Bennett

5. Bello

6. Houck (if not forced into pen role)

7. Crawford

8. Oviedo

9. Paez

10. Holobetz or Wehunt (not on current 40)

I can go with that. Not to be a tape set on repeat, but I really believe we need to acquire 1-2 more. Possible one elite and when BP dweller.

I like the depth and the health dynamic for spring, though.

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, NHNative said:

I can go with that. Not to be a tape set on repeat, but I really believe we need to acquire 1-2 more. Possible one elite and when BP dweller.

I like the depth and the health dynamic for spring, though.

I always like adding a SP'er, and losing Gray should make me 100% behind the  idea. I'm just not sure JH & Co. gives Brez enough of a winter spending budget to meat my full wish list, and SP'er is not a top 3 priority, to me. 

One long-standing philosophy I have held and always will is that I dislike trying to fix a rotation by slightly upgrading the 4 or 5 SP'er. I want a solid 1-2 and then push the current starter down one peg. This is not the same as wanting the GM to add SP'er depth. Where would we have been without the "depth" add of Bennett?

Depending on the spending budget and who we can afford to trade, I'm thinking our over-reaching goal should be to add top quality rather than 2-4 decent quality upgrades. I'd prefer 1-2 over 3-4 players added. Now, if the budget is expanded and we can make 1-2 major trades, then 4 is fine, but that seems like a wish more than a tangent possibility, so here is my top 3 priority- ranked wish list:

Option A:

1. Elite bat (Sato, Suzuki, DLC or Abrams)

2. Solid second tier bat (BLowe, Chisholm, Arozarena, Bauers types)

(No significant 3rd addition)

Option B

1. Solid bat (BLowe, Chisholm, Arozarena, Bauers types)

2. Solid bat (BLowe, Chisholm, Arozarena, Bauers types)

3. Solid pen arm (Morejon) or Solid 2-3 SP (Nick Martinez)

[NHNative]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I always like adding a SP'er, and losing Gray should make me 100% behind the  idea. I'm just not sure JH & Co. gives Brez enough of a winter spending budget to meat my full wish list, and SP'er is not a top 3 priority, to me. 

One long-standing philosophy I have held and always will is that I dislike trying to fix a rotation by slightly upgrading the 4 or 5 SP'er. I want a solid 1-2 and then push the current starter down one peg. This is not the same as wanting the GM to add SP'er depth. Where would we have been without the "depth" add of Bennett?

Depending on the spending budget and who we can afford to trade, I'm thinking our over-reaching goal should be to add top quality rather than 2-4 decent quality upgrades. I'd prefer 1-2 over 3-4 players added. Now, if the budget is expanded and we can make 1-2 major trades, then 4 is fine, but that seems like a wish more than a tangent possibility, so here is my top 3 priority- ranked wish list:

Option A:

1. Elite bat (Sato, Suzuki, DLC or Abrams)

2. Solid second tier bat (BLowe, Chisholm, Arozarena, Bauers types)

(No significant 3rd addition)

Option B

1. Solid bat (BLowe, Chisholm, Arozarena, Bauers types)

2. Solid bat (BLowe, Chisholm, Arozarena, Bauers types)

3. Solid pen arm (Morejon) or Solid 2-3 SP (Nick Martinez)

Yup---basically the same needs in pitching and batting to be a true contender. I am not saying we are in bad shape. I think we are pretty solid, but we can do better with an eye toward October.

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, NHNative said:

Yup---basically the same needs in pitching and batting to be a true contender. I am not saying we are in bad shape. I think we are pretty solid, but we can do better with an eye toward October.

We've actually had exceptional SP'er depth the last two years, and it still ended badly.

Last year, we had to trade for Dustin May, who was like #12-13.

This year, we did trade Early, but he was already on the IL and never came back, so the trade did not lessen SP depth, in reality. We ended up throwing 11 pen games, which was obscene. 2 starts from Paez and Houck combined makes it 13 GS beyond our top 8 starters. We got zero starts from Oviedo and Crawford, which was unexpected. Counting those two plus Houck, we went 11 deep. Paez was 12th. That seemed like more than enough.

In 2027, we go 8 deep and Paez is #9 not #12. That does seem scary. A Sox team needing that much SP'er healthy seems like an absurd ask/wish. I'm not beyond concern. Major concern.

I just think the need for an elite bat or two significant ones is the number one priority. I realize Mead, Anthony or even AR could end up being a "major add," and with 3 chances, hoping 2 come through is not an asburd ask, I just feel we have to strike big, this winter.

1. Sato or DLC

2. Suzuki or Abrams

big gap

3. BLowe, Chisholm, Bauers, Arraez

4. Torres, Happ, Springer (37) T Ward, Jeffers, Varsho, France, Bohm, Dubon, Grisham, Laureano

5. JP Crawford, T Taylor, Tauchman, E Suarez, E Sosa, C Kelly. J Bell

SP

1. Skubal

2. T Rogers

3. Gray (37) or N Martinez (36)

4. King, Guasman (36), Peralta, Peterson, Mize

5. Bubic, Mahle, Flaherty, Holmes, Severino, Bassitt (38)

6. R Ray, Singer, Woodruff, Imanga, Griffin, M Perez

Rp

1. Morejon

2. Bednar

3. Okert, Newcomb, T Alexander

4. R Iglesias (37) G Soto, Pagan

[notin]

1 hour ago, NHNative said:

I have been saying all along that Tolle has the potential to be one of the best.

If he does become one of the best, they should rename the Mass Pike as the Payton Tollway…

[NHNative]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

If he does become one of the best, they should rename the Mass Pike as the Payton Tollway…

I love it! Good one.

[moonslav59]

Or, The Mass Tolleway

[a700hitter]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He had a flexor strain injury and came back in September to pitching the minors. He should be healthy for ST'ing.

Crawford injured his flexor while trying to comeback from another injury. He was scheduled to start the final AAA game of the season, but it was cancelled due to weather. He should be ready for ST'ing.

Crochet and Houck were pitching at the end of the 2026 season and should be ready for ST'ing.

I'm not projecting greatness, especially out of the gate, but these guys are not like how Sandoval, Crawford and Houck looked, last winter. We knew all of them would be out for a while to start the season.

No SP'ers is projected to miss the first day of ST'ing. That's is rare for the Sox.

 

I am skeptical that a flexor strain kept Oviedo  for essentially the whole season.

[moonslav59]

47 minutes ago, a700hitter said:

I am skeptical that a flexor strain kept Oviedo  for essentially the whole season.

April 3 to mid SEPT is long, but no report of anything else.

[jdc69]

11 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

None of these guys you mention are close to a sure bet to be anything more than BP bit pieces {Houck} or bottom end SP. Some on here consider P to be a strength but it doesn't come close to matching the Brewers. If you get past a healthy Crochet and a developing Tolle we are not in the league with the true contenders.  Tolle made good strides with his off speed stuff this yr but there is still room for growth there.  

Culture is a big reason for the Brewers success and the Red Sox have none. At least not from the top, and that's why all talk of talent acquiring seems like a waste.

[NHNative]

5 hours ago, jdc69 said:

Culture is a big reason for the Brewers success and the Red Sox have none. At least not from the top, and that's why all talk of talent acquiring seems like a waste.

What about the Sox culture is missing?

[Bellhorn04]

19 hours ago, Tedballgame said:

Its obvious to anyone who watched the Yankees series that Tolle and Gray were both taken out too early. Managers used to manage based on experience and feel. Now its predetermined by some nerd geek who probably never played baseball.

Or some nerd geek who did play baseball (Breslow).

[JoeBrady]

21 hours ago, Tedballgame said:

Its obvious to anyone who watched the Yankees series that Tolle and Gray were both taken out too early. Managers used to manage based on experience and feel. Now its predetermined by some nerd geek who probably never played baseball.

Nothing in the world is managed by feelings any more.  IRT to experience, I remember Valentine saying he issued an intentional walk to Matsui because he 'remembered Matsui getting a lot of big hits'.  Matsui was arguably the worst hitter in baseball with a .435 OPS, and the IBB that BV gave him was the only IBB of the season.  Matsui never got a hit for the rest of his career, and retired a week later.

But BV's experience led him to believe an IBB was in order.

Which is why you need a nerd to tell you that 'you never IBB someone that cannot fracking hit'.

[JoeBrady]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

Nothing in the world is managed by feelings any more.  IRT to experience, I remember Valentine saying he issued an intentional walk to Matsui because he 'remembered Matsui getting a lot of big hits'.  Matsui was arguably the worst hitter in baseball with a .435 OPS, and the IBB that BV gave him was the only IBB of the season.  Matsui never got a hit for the rest of his career, and retired a week later.

But BV's experience led him to believe an IBB was in order.

Which is why you need a nerd to tell you that 'you never IBB someone that cannot fracking hit'.

That said, the statistical input need not be a directive.  Things like '3rd time thru' can be over-ridden in cases like Snell's game v the LAD.  But has to be a strong guide.  A computer printout is little more than experience being inputted into a PC.

[Old Red]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Or some nerd geek who did play baseball (Breslow).

Good one. Tracy was the one coming out on the short end though , and I don’t know which one made him look worse . Going to Miller Time two nights in a row, or jumping on the grenade at the press conference saying the decisions were all his. Both were Dick moves, and made him look pretty bad.

[Behindenemylines]

14 hours ago, a700hitter said:

I am skeptical that a flexor strain kept Oviedo  for essentially the whole season.

 

[jdc69]

58 minutes ago, NHNative said:

What about the Sox culture is missing?

Getting rid of quality players, being sneaky about it, asking prospects to be your saviors, being so dependent on analytics that the players dont know why things are being done. 

[Behindenemylines]

I don't think the Red Sox problem in the Wild Card was the starting pitching. The bullpen blowing up (due to the injuries) and NOT being able to hit good pitching. A healthy Crochet, Tolle, and Suarez are playoff ready pitchers. If Gray walks I would feel better with the Sox replacing him with a playoff type starter. I do not think Bello is that pitcher. He would be all right during the season in the bottom of the rotation, but don't trust him starting a big playoff starter. I still feel a big right-handed power bat is number 1 priority.

[jdc69]

35 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

That said, the statistical input need not be a directive.  Things like '3rd time thru' can be over-ridden in cases like Snell's game v the LAD.  But has to be a strong guide.  A computer printout is little more than experience being inputted into a PC.

The thing with analytics is no one is not using it to see if things work without it. The wisdom used to be to leave pitchers in to teach them how to pitch when you dont have your best stuff. All thinking and responsibility is being taken away from them, being replaced by unknown, unseen geeks.

I heard this the other day, teams put their best power hitter leadoff because over the course of the season they will have 25 more at bats. That is so anti-situational its absurd.

[Old Red]

37 minutes ago, jdc69 said:

The thing with analytics is no one is not using it to see if things work without it. The wisdom used to be to leave pitchers in to teach them how to pitch when you dont have your best stuff. All thinking and responsibility is being taken away from them, being replaced by unknown, unseen geeks.

I heard this the other day, teams put their best power hitter leadoff because over the course of the season they will have 25 more at bats. That is so anti-situational its absurd.

I understand that numbers tell a story,  but so does a feel for the game. I’m sure numbers would have told Grady to take Pedro out before he did against the Yankees in 2003, but so shouldn’t a feel for the game. If the numbers said to bring Miller into the game in a one run game in the 5th inning not once, but twice especially the way MIller had pitched the past few weeks it shows how flawed those numbers were. A feel  for the game should have told you otherwise whether to take Gray out to begin let alone bringing in Miller. Flawed decision all the way around…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Behindenemylines said:

I am skeptical that a flexor strain kept Oviedo  for essentially the whole season.

There are different levels of flexor strains.

As of now, Oviedo is slotted 6-7-8. He's had some success in his career, much like the other 6-7-8 pitchers: Houck and Crawford.

Here is a breakdown of each:

Houck has had the most success of the three and before all the injuries had some of the nastiest stuff on the team. He was our ace before Crochet. Over the first 3 seasons, he was jerked between starter and reliever.

'20-'22: 3.02 ERA in 146 IP (2.95 FIP and 1.12 WHIP)

He had an awful 2023 season as a SP'er (5.01 ERA/4.43 FIP/1.37 WHIP) 21 GS and 106 IP

In 2024, he was clearly our ace and may have began his injury during the season, as he started off like a Cy Young starter then fell off a cliff.

1st 19 GS: 117 IP 2.54 ERA/2.68 FIP

last 11 GS: 63 IP 4.23 ERA/4.53 FIP

While a 19 game stretch is not long enough to determine a pitcher is great or not, 117 IP plus his success as a RP'er does offer evidence he was once a formidable pitcher. Maybe he should return to the pen, but maybe not.

Crawford: He led the team in GS (33) and IP (184) in 2024, but his best season was 2023 4.04 ERA and 3.83 FIP. From 2023-2024, his ERA+ was 102 (4.23 ERA and 4.31 FIP.) Neither years show he's an ace or even a #2 or great #3, but he was pretty good. Like Houck, he did have one very nice stretch (in 2024) 20 GS & 114 IP (5 2/3 IP per start) at 3.00 ERA and 3.77 FIP

Oviedo pitched for STL and PIT from 2020-2025. Like Houck, he was used as a SP'er and RP'er over his first 3 seasons: 143 IP

4.34 ERA and 4.68 FIP

His 2023 season was his best: 178 IP

4.31/4.49 which are okay 5th starter numbers. He missed the whole 2024 season.

He started 9 games in 2025 before getting hurt. 2023-2025: 41 GS and 218 IP (5 1/3 IP per start)

4.17 ERA/ 4.57 FIP This is about what you can hope your 6-7-8 starter can give you. His best stretch was 15 GS in 2023: 3.86 ERA/3.35 FIP. That's a good #3 pitcher's numbers. You can expand that stretch to 26 starts and

4.09 ERA/4.05 FIP which are decent #3/4 numbers.

[Hitch]

21 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I always liked him, but I was slow to join the "could be a great one" club.

Silly me!

I'd rank our starters like this going into 2027:

1. Crochet

1A. Tolle

3. Suarez

4. Bennett

5. Bello

6. Houck (if not forced into pen role)

7. Crawford

8. Oviedo

9. Paez

10. Holobetz or Wehunt (not on current 40)

A lot of question marks there. And very little depth.