Duran

[NHNative]

I was thinking yesterday about him as a human being and what he has dealt with and such. IMO the Sox organizationn ought to be careful how they treat him moving forward and not trade him---but keep him on the team.

 Baseball isn't just numbers. Its People.

[UtahSox]

I think he would benefit from a smaller market, where he wouldn’t be under microscope. Like the KC Royals, AZ DBacks, Pirates or Reds. 

[NHNative]

4 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

I think he would benefit from a smaller market, where he wouldn’t be under microscope. Like the KC Royals, AZ DBacks, Pirates or Reds. 

That is an interesting thought. Not sure its accurate.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, NHNative said:

That is an interesting thought. Not sure its accurate.

There would probably be less pressure/stress, which is a big factor in emotional and mental triggers.

It's hard to know.

I think the breaking point was when Red called him the "butterfly Man." Who among us could ever recover from that bash?

IMO, he can still turn is career around, but for this whole season, he seems to be more of a negative than a positive towards helping us win. He's had some big hits, and his speed has helped us score some runs no other runner could have scored, but overall, he's hurt the team.

He currently  has a 0.5 bWAR and a 0.5fWAR.

[NHNative]

Ya---people can be cruel and unthinking. I hope he gets better and shows marked improvement.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, NHNative said:

Ya---people can be cruel and unthinking. I hope he gets better and shows marked improvement.

I do, too. I just don't see him as helping this team, going forward. If he was going to make $4-6M on his arb, that would be okay, but $7-9M is too much for a tight-fisted owner's budget. I know $2-4M doesn't seem like much, but that could be the next T Guerrero. Jones and White.

Since Jones and White are out of options, and Anthony and Yoshida can play LF, we'll have enough OF'ers for 2027. The DH position looks like the best slot to upgrade our offense, so slotting Anthony in LF and maybe trading Yoshida could be the best plan. That plan would mean Duran is on the bench. 

It's one thing signing a guy like IKF for $6M to be a utility infielders, but $8-9M for a 4th OF'er when we already have White, Jones and maybe Yoshida just doesn't seem like a shrewd budget choice. Yoshida could also be a decnet FT DH in 2027, despite the aging and injury issues.

Here's the rub: if Duran is not worth $8-9M, how can we sign him and trade him without adding money? It would make more sense to non tender him or sign him at $6M/1 ir $11M/2 before non tendering him. (Then, maybe trade him.) I'm not sure that is likely either.

Further complicating the DH-LF situation is the fact that we have Story-Mead-Arias at middle infield, which could easily help fill the DH slot. With Sogard, Seigler, Monasterio & Cheng as middle infield depth, using Story or Mead at DH makes even more sense. That would put more of a squeeze on Duran's usefulness for 2027.

Ideally, Brez could find a way to trade two from Yoshida, Duran and Story. Maybe we trade Jones or White, if we keep Duran. This is much easier said than done, even if we pay big chunks of salary owed. It might be easier with less money owed now, but Yoshida's injury and Story's age might offset the less money aspect of these trade options.

Let's say we trade Duran for a AAA SP'er depth piece. We trade Story + $18M for a RP'er. We trade Yoshida +$14M for another RP'er. We'd gain some pitching depth we lost with the recent trades, and we'd be left with everyday options like this:

C: Rutschman & Wong/Gasper/JoGarcia

1B: Contreras & Sogard/Romy/Casas/Gasper

2B: Mead & Sogard/Seigler/Monasterio/Cheng/Rodgers/Romero

3B: Durbin & Sogard/Eaton/Monasterio/ Romero

SS: Arias & Monasterio/Cheng/Sogard

LF: Anthony & Jones/White/Campbell/Castro

CF: Rafaela & White/Eaton/Ward

RF: Abreu & White/Eaton/Campbell/Gonzales

DH: ___FA____ & Campbell/Gasper/Romy/Casas/Gonzales/JoGarcia/Brannon

[Behindenemylines]

The strikeouts are frustrating, but where would the Sox be if they had traded him last off season. While a lot of teammates have been hurt throughout the season he always answers the bell. The game the Sox won last week against Cleveland that was him. Stolen base and just beating the throw home (not sure anyone else currently on the roster is safe on that play).

[NHNative]

12 minutes ago, Behindenemylines said:

The strikeouts are frustrating, but where would the Sox be if they had traded him last off season. While a lot of teammates have been hurt throughout the season he always answers the bell. The game the Sox won last week against Cleveland that was him. Stolen base and just beating the throw home (not sure anyone else currently on the roster is safe on that play).

Yup---I am not anywhere near all you guys with stats and such, but I agree that if he gets to hitting a bit better, he adds to the team. He is clearly capable of getting it back.

Not so different from some others right now.

[moonslav59]

K% in 2026 (MLB: 22.3%)

34 Narvaez (gone)

33 Story (1 year left)

32 Cheng (3rd/4th string SS)

31 Jones (platoon OF'er)

29 Romy (not on 26)

27 Duran (2nd on team in PAs and might be gone in '27)

27 Anthony (as long as he gets on base, this doesn't concern me)

26 Eaton (like #38 on the 40 man roster)

25 Contreras (not a concern)

24 Wong (could be gone in '27)

23 White (out of options & 5th OF type)

23 Rutschman (near league avg)

___________ League AVG ___________

21 Abreu

20 Sogard & Rafaela

19 Monasterio & Mayer (gone)

17 Gasper

16 Seigler

15 IKF (FA to be)

14 Durbin

11 Yoshida

 

[NHNative]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

K% in 2026 (MLB: 22.3%)

34 Narvaez (gone)

33 Story (1 year left)

32 Cheng (3rd/4th string SS)

31 Jones (platoon OF'er)

29 Romy (not on 26)

27 Duran (2nd on team in PAs and might be gone in '27)

27 Anthony (as long as he gets on base, this doesn't concern me)

26 Eaton (like #38 on the 40 man roster)

25 Contreras (not a concern)

24 Wong (could be gone in '27)

23 White (out of options & 5th OF type)

23 Rutschman (near league avg)

___________ League AVG ___________

21 Abreu

20 Sogard & Rafaela

19 Monasterio & Mayer (gone)

17 Gasper

16 Seigler

15 IKF (FA to be)

14 Durbin

11 Yoshida

 

Can you compare alongside base hits and HRs?

Ks aren't all.

[JoeBrady]

8 hours ago, NHNative said:

I was thinking yesterday about him as a human being and what he has dealt with and such. IMO the Sox organizationn ought to be careful how they treat him moving forward and not trade him---but keep him on the team.

 Baseball isn't just numbers. Its People.

I wouldn't trade him because there is a decent chance he has positive regression.  But at a certain level, no employee gets any sympathy.  $1M salaries in the real world (and probably a lot lower), you either perform or you leave.

FWIW, I've been tracking him since 7/4, since it was one of those rare 2-walk games.  He has a .670 OPS with a .268 BABIP.  It's 'okay', if not more than occasionally frustrating.

[NHNative]

I hope and believe as I said, that he can and may very well get that bat in swing.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, NHNative said:

Can you compare alongside base hits and HRs?

Ks aren't all.

 

K% in 2026 (MLB: 22.3%) and OBP/SLG

33 Story .270/.353

31 Jones .419/.603

27 Duran .267/.362

27 Anthony .342/.400

25 Contreras .387/.518

24 Wong .309/.349

23 Rutschman .268/.383

___________ League AVG ___________

21 Abreu .328/,448

20 Sogard .340/.386

20 Rafaela .318/.442

19 Monasterio .297/.374

17 Gasper .357/.466

16 Seigler .327/.400

15 IKF .322/.311

14 Durbin .333/.379

11 Yoshida .347/.399

[Hugh2]

The thing about Duran is even if he couldn’t play at a starters caliber he can still be a good 4th outfielder and a baserunner.  
 

I think that, plus the upside that he performs wells again next year is worth more than what we’d get back in a trade.  The time to trade him was a year ago

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

The thing about Duran is even if he couldn’t play at a starters caliber he can still be a good 4th outfielder and a baserunner.  
 

I think that, plus the upside that he performs wells again next year is worth more than what we’d get back in a trade.  The time to trade him was a year ago

He's likely to get $8-9M via arb.

That's a lot for a 4th OF'er/PR.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He's likely to get $8-9M via arb.

That's a lot for a 4th OF'er/PR.

But more than just a #4.  He's a very capable starter, just in case someone goes down.  This isn't like JJ, Refsnyder, etc. at #4.

And he could be a DH.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

But more than just a #4.  He's a very capable starter, just in case someone goes down.  This isn't like JJ, Refsnyder, etc. at #4.

And he could be a DH.

He is not a capable starter. He's far from "very" capable. He's a 0.5 WAR player.

He's not a DH, and beside, we have about 7 better DHs or DH platoon combos.

I'd prefer White and Jones to Duran.

Maybe KC is a better 4th OF/DH option.

Maybe Mead can play LF and bat 150 points higher.

Can Duran regain some magic? Sure, but I would not pay $8-9M to find out.

Anthony LF, Rafaela CF, Abreu RF

White/Jones & Yoshida as the reserve platoon.

Eaton, KC and Ward/Gonzales in AAA.

Mead as a possibility.

The budget will likely be too tight to pay Duran. Maybe if we save $9M by trading Story and Yoshida, it would make more sense. He'd basically be paid for by the two trades, and Yoshida would be replaced by Duran as the LH'd DH and 4th OF platoon guy. This needs a lot to happen to work, and Duran might still keep getting worse and not rebound. Staying the same would still not be worth $9M.

We can use $9M on a RP'er or to boost our offer to Gray or Morejon.

[notin]

12 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

But more than just a #4.  He's a very capable starter, just in case someone goes down.  This isn't like JJ, Refsnyder, etc. at #4.

And he could be a DH.

Sort of the definition of a #4 outfielder.

Bottom line, Duran has had a rough year although in previous seasons, he has demonstrated himself as a very capable starting OF.  But as he made $7.7mill last year and could make $9-10mill this year and probably isn’t going to be the starting DH, he could and should be traded.   The Sox couldn’t get much for him off a 4 WAR season, so I keep my expectations low considering he had a worse season, is more expensive, is a year older, and has one year less control…

[notin]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He is not a capable starter. He's far from "very" capable. He's a 0.5 WAR player.

He's not a DH, and beside, we have about 7 better DHs or DH platoon combos.

I'd prefer White and Jones to Duran.

Maybe KC is a better 4th OF/DH option.

Maybe Mead can play LF and bat 150 points higher.

Can Duran regain some magic? Sure, but I would not pay $8-9M to find out.

Anthony LF, Rafaela CF, Abreu RF

White/Jones & Yoshida as the reserve platoon.

Eaton, KC and Ward/Gonzales in AAA.

Mead as a possibility.

The budget will likely be too tight to pay Duran. Maybe if we save $9M by trading Story and Yoshida, it would make more sense. He'd basically be paid for by the two trades, and Yoshida would be replaced by Duran as the LH'd DH and 4th OF platoon guy. This needs a lot to happen to work, and Duran might still keep getting worse and not rebound. Staying the same would still not be worth $9M.

We can use $9M on a RP'er or to boost our offer to Gray or Morejon.

The Sox aren’t trading Story or Yoshida…

[moonslav59]

Just now, notin said:

The Sox aren’t trading Story or Yoshida…

I agree. I doubt we sign and trade Duran either.

I think we should choose one and deal them for the best  we can get, and by that I mean the most money saved for Yoshida or Story. For Duran, it's more complicated. If he goes to arb he might get $8-9M. I would not pay that, and if no GM would pay that, why let him win that in an arb and then not be able to trade him without pitching in money. If that's the case, just non tender him or try to get him to sign for $6.5M.

I actually don't mind Yoshida as the DH, at least as much as others seem to dislike the idea, but with Anthony & Duran at LF/DH and Story & Mead at 2B/DH, plus so many other DH platoon combos out there, I'd prefer we trade Yoshida and try to save $5-6M, but maybe settle on $3-4M or just take back a high priced pitcher to balance the money to the same extent.

I'm not a Story-hater, either. I think he'd be fine at 2B with Arias at SS, and maybe Mead at DH and back-up for when Trevor gets hurt. Again, if this happens, it further squeezes Yoshida and the LF/DH plans for Duran & Anthony.

It's like we'd have 3 DHs: Mead or Story, Duran or Anthony plus Yoshida. I suppose we could platoon Story with one of the LHBs, but that's an expensive short-side platoon, and he actually has decent splits vs RHPs, unlike Yoshida and Duran vs LHPs.

I'd prefer not to go into 2027 with a Gasper-Romy platoon plan at DH, but we'd also have Jones and maybe Casas as depth.

To me, we have too many moving parts and logjams, while having a few clear need areas. Trading Monasterio or Seigler and Jones or White would free up some room, but none are bringing back a solid RP'er or opening up a line-up slot for the 3+ DHs. It would just clear up the 26 man roster issues and lack of options for Jones & White that creates issues. Trading Sogard could bring a better return, and maybe Sogard + White could fill one major need (pen help or a 6th SP'er type.)

Something has to give, and we know Brez does not hesitate to trade bubble players, significant role players and even stars.

1B: Contreras, Mead, Sogard, Gasper, Romy, Casas, Brannon (Jo Garcia/Gonzales?)

2B: Mead, Story, Sogard, Seigler, Monasterio, Cheng (Rodgers/Romero/Cespedes)

SS: Arias, Story, Monasterio, Cheng, Sogard (Godbout)

DH: Yoshida, Duran or Anthony, Story or Mead, Casas, Gasper, Romy, Jones, Campbell

(Brannon, Jo Garcia, H White, Cespedes, Gonzales, Winnay, Cespedes, Ro Hernandez)

LF: Anthony, Duran, Jones, White, Campbell, Eaton (Gonzales, Ward)

Depth is great, and we can see how it is often needed. This year is a perfect example, especially when you look at our revolving doors at 2B/SS/DH. However, when we have high needs at SP (Gray's slot) and SP depth (especially if we use Houck and or Crawford in the pen) and the pen. We'll also be facing a 26 man roster crunch, in part because some players are out of options. IMO, the 40 man roster crunch is not all that bad.

I'm pretty certain, Brez will wheel and deal. I can see us trying to make an upgrade on offense, somewhere, but DH seems like the easiest to upgrade, but I just showed the logjam we have there and at 2B/LF that spills over into the DH slot.

Do we want to upgrade in CF and lose our top WAR guy (Ceddanne?) Big NOPE from me.

Do we give up on AR and trade even more top young players to upgrade there? NOPE.

Do we try and do better than Durbin's .730-.750 projections? He does play great D at 3B, so I'd say NOPE.

We are not touching SS (Arias/Story) LF (Anthony) or RF (Abreu.)

We just gave up Early to get Mead, who has many years of control, and with Arias pushing Story to 2B, that position seems more than set. Now, Arias could stumble, and Story could get hurt, and suddenly we need a SS. This is not an easy situation to address.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't care about next year. This is this, this isn't anything else! (free derogatory post if you can identify the classic movie with that DeNiro quote)

And like it or not, we're all going to see a lot of Jarren Duran in these playoffs.

If he gets on base, he can be the disrupting force to upset the heavy favorites.

Duran only has 3 more Ks than Ben Rice, 8 more than Jazz (and one more HR than the latter).

 

[NHNative]

I would be against trading Sogard. He offers too much to the team.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, NHNative said:

I would be against trading Sogard. He offers too much to the team.

I don't disagree, but the return would be much better than for Seigler or Monasterio, and the drop off to Seigler/Monasterio, while significant, would not be catastrophic.

Besides, we have 3 middle infielders in Arias, Mead and Story plus Romy, so we are talking about the 3rd string 2B/SS. Romy is okay at 1B, and maybe Casas gets healthy, so the depth at 1B should be okay, too.

[notin]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I don't care about next year. This is this, this isn't anything else! (free derogatory post if you can identify the classic movie with that DeNiro quote)

And like it or not, we're all going to see a lot of Jarren Duran in these playoffs.

If he gets on base, he can be the disrupting force to upset the heavy favorites.

Duran only has 3 more Ks than Ben Rice, 8 more than Jazz (and one more HR than the latter).

 

I think how much we see him depends on Yankee pitching.  Schlitter? Yes. Fried? No.  
 

You get the idea…

[notin]

3 hours ago, NHNative said:

I would be against trading Sogard. He offers too much to the team.

I don’t thinking trading a utility infielder tops the list of off-season plans…

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't disagree, but the return would be much better than for Seigler or Monasterio, and the drop off to Seigler/Monasterio, while significant, would not be catastrophic.

Besides, we have 3 middle infielders in Arias, Mead and Story plus Romy, so we are talking about the 3rd string 2B/SS. Romy is okay at 1B, and maybe Casas gets healthy, so the depth at 1B should be okay, too.

Romy and Casas are both legitimate non-tender candidates…

[notin]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

 

Duran only has 3 more Ks than Ben Rice

 

In 61 fewer PA…

[vegasbob]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Romy and Casas are both legitimate non-tender candidates…

I have no use for Casas but if he can't be productively moved on, let him play 1B or DH at WooSox until Wilson leans over the plate one more time

[notin]

44 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

I have no use for Casas but if he can't be productively moved on, let him play 1B or DH at WooSox until Wilson leans over the plate one more time

I think the issue wuth Casas will be that he might get $3-4mill in arbitration and take up a valuable 40 man roster spot.

He probably gets non-tendered and the Sox try to re-sign him to a minor league deal.  He might accept it, too, since it’s pretty unlikely anyone signs him to a major league deal…

[vegasbob]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I think the issue wuth Casas will be that he might get $3-4mill in arbitration and take up a valuable 40 man roster spot.

He probably gets non-tendered and the Sox try to re-sign him to a minor league deal.  He might accept it, too, since it’s pretty unlikely anyone signs him to a major league deal…

Casas might need a need a new roster exemp category called the MUP list. Mentally unable to perform