Red Sox Magic Number

[illinoisredsox]

The Sox magic number for clinching a postseason berth is now 16 (over Texas and Toronto) with 21 games remaining.

They are done with the Blue Jays for the year and have 3 games left at Texas.

[JoeBrady]

10 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

The Sox magic number for clinching a postseason berth is now 16 (over Texas and Toronto) with 21 games remaining.

They are done with the Blue Jays for the year and have 3 games left at Texas.

We still have work to do, but this was a big game against the O's.  For all practical purposes, the O's now need to sweep the next three to have a shot at us.  Taking baby steps.

[vegasbob]

Big chance at a sweep Sunday. Magic number 14

 

.

[JoeBrady]

9 hours ago, vegasbob said:

Big chance at a sweep Sunday. Magic number 14

 

.

I'm wondering if this lead is driving the decision to IL so many players.  This beckons the Tito days (the guy Fred referred to as 'Fran-coma').  Dangerous game to play, but the added rest could pay off big.

[vegasbob]

Looking at the overall AL standings, it is a joke to see the East with 4 of 5 teams above .500, with only the Guardians,  Astros,   White Sox. above .500. from the rest of the AL

All with lesser records than the Red Sox .  

One or more of these uncompetitive dogs will get a home series for the WC.

 

[JoeBrady]

17 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

Looking at the overall AL standings, it is a joke to see the East with 4 of 5 teams above .500, with only the Guardians,  Astros,   White Sox. above .500. from the rest of the AL

All with lesser records than the Red Sox .  

One or more of these uncompetitive dogs will get a home series for the WC.

 

They should change the rules so the best record get home field.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, vegasbob said:

Looking at the overall AL standings, it is a joke to see the East with 4 of 5 teams above .500, with only the Guardians,  Astros,   White Sox. above .500. from the rest of the AL

All with lesser records than the Red Sox .  

One or more of these uncompetitive dogs will get a home series for the WC.

 

I'm not being sympathetic to a big-market team like TO, but their schedule includes divisional rivals that are 56 games over .500.  And Houston has divisional rivals 77 games under .500.

[illinoisredsox]

The number has dropped to 12 with 18 games remaining.  It’s still the Blue Jays the 4 position.

 

[moonslav59]

38 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

The number has dropped to 12 with 18 games remaining.  It’s still the Blue Jays the 4 position.

The magic number is 13.

We need just 13 playoff wins for another ring.

[illinoisredsox]

58 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The magic number is 13.

We need just 13 playoff wins for another ring.

13 clinches the #2 slot over Cleveland.

For the #3 slot, 163 - 79 Sox wins - 72 Blue Jays losses = 12.

Put another way, the Jays are 72-72; the most games they can win is 90.  The Sox have 79 wins, so 12 more is 91 which eliminates the Jays.

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, illinoisredsox said:

13 clinches the #2 slot over Cleveland.

For the #3 slot, 163 - 79 Sox wins - 72 Blue Jays losses = 12.

Put another way, the Jays are 72-72; the most games they can win is 90.  The Sox have 79 wins, so 12 more is 91 which eliminates the Jays.

I used the term "magic number" in a whole different way.

To me, we are already in the playoffs- 100%. I should have explained myself better.

To win a ring, a WC team needs to win 13 games. That's my "magic" number.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The magic number, unless things change, is two.

Two Wild Card wins. In the Bronx. 

If the Red Sox upset the Yanks in NY, it will be an epic capstone to this comeback season. And it will carry them through the rest of the playoff bonus rounds.

We have less than three weeks to set up the rotation. What's your optimum order?

I know Gray and Suarez are veteran aces, but I can't not use Tolle in one of the first two games. Of all three guys, he has the stuff -- physically and mentally -- to dominate and discourage. 

I'm leaning Gray-Tolle-Suarez. Ranger has the rep for coming up clutch in the postseason...

[moonslav59]

I might go...

1. Gray

2. Tolle

3. Suarez with a quick hook, if needed, and Bennett on stand by.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I know Gray and Suarez are veteran aces, but I can't not use Tolle in one of the first two games.

This is why Breslow gets the big money.  I'd go that way: Gray-Suarez-Tolle.  But even Bennett is still chugging along.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

This is why Breslow gets the big money.  I'd go that way: Gray-Suarez-Tolle.  But even Bennett is still chugging along.

I think Tracy goes Suarez game 2, but to me, if we are down 0-1, I don't want Tolle being the guy never starting a playoff game in 2026.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I might go...

1. Gray

2. Tolle

3. Suarez with a quick hook, if needed, and Bennett on stand by.

Ya, I also like the gas between two finesse to mess up timing. Plus, Tolle is still technically a rookie, so Game 3 (though Early wasn't bad last year) may be better handled by a vet who's proven in those circumstances... if available.

Bennett could be long man for any of the three -- and we'd trust him or even Sandoval more than Bello.

[JoeBrady]

12 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Ya, I also like the gas between two finesse to mess up timing. Plus, Tolle is still technically a rookie, so Game 3 (though Early wasn't bad last year) may be better handled by a vet who's proven in those circumstances... if available.

Bennett could be long man for any of the three -- and we'd trust him or even Sandoval more than Bello.

Fair points by you and Moon.

[illinoisredsox]

Detroit beat Toronto tonight, dropping the Sox magic number to 5 over both the Blue Jays and Texas.

It's actually 3 over one of those 2 clubs; the Jays follow Boston to Arlington for 3 games starting Friday and one of them has to lose at least twice.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

OB loves to update NESN viewers every night with how many game the Sox are ahead of Cleveland in the Wild Card mosey. As if that matters...

... we know the only teams to worry about are the ones who aren't in a playoff position and still chasing one. 

The dumb thing about the first round format is not only would the AL's 2nd and 3rd  best records -- both from the AL East -- play each other, but also that at least two other barely .500 clubs get rewarded for playing in mediocre divisions.

It's quite possible that either the White Sox, Guardians, Astros or Rangers will get to face off to see who can score the second-least amount of runs in two out of three Mild Card games.

[NHNative]

On 9/7/2026 at 9:30 AM, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The magic number, unless things change, is two.

Two Wild Card wins. In the Bronx. 

If the Red Sox upset the Yanks in NY, it will be an epic capstone to this comeback season. And it will carry them through the rest of the playoff bonus rounds.

We have less than three weeks to set up the rotation. What's your optimum order?

I know Gray and Suarez are veteran aces, but I can't not use Tolle in one of the first two games. Of all three guys, he has the stuff -- physically and mentally -- to dominate and discourage. 

I'm leaning Gray-Tolle-Suarez. Ranger has the rep for coming up clutch in the postseason...

I agree and although Tolle is a rookie, I do not think he is the kinda guy to be easily shaken. He knows what he is and what he is not.

[JoeBrady]

Down to 2?

[moonslav59]

On 9/15/2026 at 8:33 AM, NHNative said:

I agree and although Tolle is a rookie, I do not think he is the kinda guy to be easily shaken. He knows what he is and what he is not.

I have a lot of confidence in Tolle. He seems like he has the perfect attitude for a pitcher.

I also think Gray will do fine under the pressure of an away game in NYC.

I'm not sure why I have less confidence in Suarez, since he has a pretty impressive playoff history and a 43 IP sample size.

1.48 ERA

1.055 WHIP (3.02 FIP)

3.4 K:BB

0.6 HR/9

The more I think about it, the more I like our top 3 to advance us to the next round after the Yanks. Our top 4-5 pen guys are on their game, right now.

Our bats have hit a snag, and we've seen bone head plays popping up again, but I think we'll be fine. Anthony is back, and surprisingly Story is hitting like he did over the second half of 2025.

As bad as Story started off in 2025, he ended up leading the team in HRs (by 3) RBIs (by 12) and SBs (by 7 and with only one late season CS.) e had an .839 OPS over his last 96 games (404 PAs)- his best long stretch with the Sox. He's hit .847 since his return in 2026 (72 PAs) and .904 in his last 31 PAs.

I'm not predicting Story is going to lead us to a ring, but he is offering some veteran leadership to a team that was doing pretty damn good before he came back.

We've seen some slippage from Contreras, Abreu, AR and to a lesser extent Durbin & Sogard. The loss of Rafaela hurt the O and D, but some others have picked up the slack and the return of Contreras and Rafaela could offer the big boost we need to advance beyond New York.

[notin]

On 9/15/2026 at 8:33 AM, NHNative said:

I agree and although Tolle is a rookie, I do not think he is the kinda guy to be easily shaken. He knows what he is and what he is not.

Tolle is only 23 years old, but physically, he looks like a 45 year old shop teacher…

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, notin said:

Tolle is only 23 years old, but physically, he looks like a 45 year old shop teacher…

Or a 37 year old plumber.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Magic Number at 4 pm Sunday is 4-1... Braves lead Astros in the 6th.

Mike Yastrzemski cracked a 3-run HR to put Atlanta ahead.

Yaz comes through again for Boston in a race for the postseason.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Magic Number at 4 pm Sunday is 4-1... Braves lead Astros in the 6th.

Mike Yastrzemski cracked a 3-run HR to put Atlanta ahead.

Yaz comes through again for Boston in a race for the postseason.

Not quite the pins and needles at '67.

[notin]

On 9/6/2026 at 12:23 PM, JoeBrady said:

They should change the rules so the best record get home field.

Absolutely.

Absolute joke that the AL West winner could have a losing record and not only still make the playoffs but also host games over better teams…

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Absolutely.

Absolute joke that the AL West winner could have a losing record and not only still make the playoffs but also host games over better teams…

Of all the professional sports leagues, MLB's playoffs are set up the worst. (I don't pay attention to the other ones)

[JAG]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Not quite the pins and needles at '67.

a champagne celebration after a loss, embarrassing, they haven't done anything until get through round 1

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, JAG said:

a champagne celebration after a loss, embarrassing, they haven't done anything until get through round 1

Getting in is the important part. It's not the first time they've clinched after a loss. It won't be the last.