A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II

[JoeBrady]

44 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Remains to be seen what Mead can provide. Doesn't have a long track record. I'm not sure I'd rush him back this season.

IMO, the fracture heals, or it doesn't.  He probably needs some minor ABs (will they still be playing?), but I'd have no problem with his track record.

[vegasbob]

8 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

IMO, the fracture heals, or it doesn't.  He probably needs some minor ABs (will they still be playing?), but I'd have no problem with his track record.

AAA season ends September 20. then their playoffs end on the 26th

If Mead isn't actively swinging the bat yet he will likely run out of time for a reasonable rehab stint

[Randy Red Sox]

23 hours ago, notin said:

I agree the Sox gave up a lot, but when all the dust settles it might wind up the Sox gave up Eyanson and a bunch of career minor leaguers for Rutschman, too…

True but if Evanyson turns out as projected it will still be a bad trade.

[JoeBrady]

17 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

True but if Evanyson turns out as projected it will still be a bad trade.

In trades involving prospects, if the prospects pan out, the acquiring team will almost always win.  If Eyanson develops into a #3, he will like accrue 15 WAR in his 6+ years of control.  Had Verdugo maintained his LA stats from 2019, we'd have won that trade.

And the teams acquiring prospects usually come out ahead in most cases.  It's an overpay for current help in exchange for future help.

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Remains to be seen what Mead can provide. Doesn't have a long track record. I'm not sure I'd rush him back this season.

"doesn't have a long track record".....so, yeah, lets trade a starting pitcher for his guy. another trade that's gonna bite Brez in the ass.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

"doesn't have a long track record".....so, yeah, lets trade a starting pitcher for his guy. another trade that's gonna bite Brez in the ass.

It's interesting because I was higher on Early than most people when he was a prospect. When he got to the bigs and everyone thought he was a top of the rotation guy, I just didn't see it that way. To me, he is a 4th starter. The Sox haven't been able to develop impact bats. Mead was an impact bat the first half of this season. They have control over him for several years. I'm fine with the trade. 

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Except for Rutschman, that's also our 2028 lineup.

And except for Rut & Contreras, I think it is also our 2029 & 2030 lineup.

Yup, and Crochet, Tolle, Bennett & Suarez have 5 years of control.

We have 7 of 9 line-up slots filled for 1-2 more years and 4 rotation slots filled for 5. Those are the high priced slots.

We'll need a SP'er next year (Houck/Crawford/Oviedo?), a closer (Whitlock?) and catcher after 2027 (Jo Garcia/Wong?) and 1Bman after 2028 (Gonzalez/Casas/Romy/Brannon/Jo Garcia?)

That's not much.

 

[Randy Red Sox]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yup, and Crochet, Tolle, Bennett & Suarez have 5 years of control.

We have 7 of 9 line-up slots filled for 1-2 more years and 4 rotation slots filled for 5. Those are the high priced slots.

We'll need a SP'er next year (Houck/Crawford/Oviedo?), a closer (Whitlock?) and catcher after 2027 (Jo Garcia/Wong?) and 1Bman after 2028 (Gonzalez/Casas/Romy/Brannon/Jo Garcia?)

That's not much.

 

the options you have offered here are not really that encouraging.

[Maxbialystock]

3 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

True but if Evanyson turns out as projected it will still be a bad trade.

When the  trade was made it seemed obvious the Sox needed hitting more than pitching.   

Ironically the pitching nosedived in August and the hitting got better without Mead and with Rutschman's OPS  a lousy .500.  Trading Early had no effect on the pitching because he's been on the IL since June 30.  

On the other hand, Gasper's hitting has been a godsend--completely unexpected--and so had Anthony who is hitting like last season.  Heck, even Story has been good at the plate.  

When Contreras and Rafaela return, I see a pretty good lineup:  

Anthony LF

Gasper DH

Abreu RF

Contreras 1b

Rutschman C 

Story SS

Rafaela CF

Durbin 3b

Kiner-Falefa. 2b

On the bench Duran, Wong,  Jones, Sogard, Monasterio, 

 

 

 

 

[vegasbob]

Amazing how Story and Anthony finally appear a few days ago and commence hitting but just as quickly we lose Contreras and now Rafaela for a few days.       

That the Sox are still in a commanding position in the WC race with the extent of 2026 injuries to key players is amazing.    The long duration IL stays is just as amazing.  Do these guys never heal?

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Yup, and Crochet, Tolle, Bennett & Suarez have 5 years of control.

We have 7 of 9 line-up slots filled for 1-2 more years and 4 rotation slots filled for 5. Those are the high priced slots.

We'll need a SP'er next year (Houck/Crawford/Oviedo?), a closer (Whitlock?) and catcher after 2027 (Jo Garcia/Wong?) and 1Bman after 2028 (Gonzalez/Casas/Romy/Brannon/Jo Garcia?)

That's not much.

 

While acknowledging that the LOA says 1-2 players will go sideways, we also have a ton of payroll flexibility.  In 2028, our payroll is only $118M plus arbitration.  That's a lot of room to sign an ace, a closer, and maybe re-up Rut.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

the options you have offered here are not really that encouraging.

True. Maybe 1 or two work out okay or well, but there are only 4 slots needed in 1-2 years.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

While acknowledging that the LOA says 1-2 players will go sideways, we also have a ton of payroll flexibility.  In 2028, our payroll is only $118M plus arbitration.  That's a lot of room to sign an ace, a closer, and maybe re-up Rut.

I think we are set up pretty well.

We have 2 major slots to fill for next season and 2 for 2028.

We have a solid bench.

The pen always will need infusions, but that is true for every team, and Brez has done an admirable job for 3 years- often with no names or reclamation projects that work out.

We don't even lose than many big players after 3 years. We have some slots looking solid for 4-5+ years. Granted, some may go south or sideways, but with the depth we have, we should not get burned at any position. (Catcher could get scary. Closer, too. We'll need a SP'er but look to have decent depth, if Houck, Crawford & Oviedo return and Bello loses the yips.)

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

The pen always will need infusions, but that is true for every team,

And even at that, BPs are a bit of a crap shoot.  Coming into this season, I thought Chapman and Whitlock would be very good, Slaten, maybe Weissert would be okay+, and the rest meh.  And most of us hoped to add a decent+ RP.  And here we are; 2nd in ERA and 1st in OPS.  Who'd have thought?

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

And even at that, BPs are a bit of a crap shoot.  Coming into this season, I thought Chapman and Whitlock would be very good, Slaten, maybe Weissert would be okay+, and the rest meh.  And most of us hoped to add a decent+ RP.  And here we are; 2nd in ERA and 1st in OPS.  Who'd have thought?

Yup, and not all Brez;'s adds worked.

We cycled through Watson (56 IP is 2nd on team in RP IP) and Coulombe (22 IP is 10th)

Whodathunk Bello would lead the team in IP with Watson 2nd.

Last year, Bernardino, Murphy & Kelly had 35+ IP.

Some Sox pen numbers:

2024: 18t in fWAR/ 24t in ERA- (Kinda letdown seasons from carry-overs Jansen, Martin & Winck (153 IP combined)

2025: 2nd in fWAR/ 2nd in ERA+ to SDP

2026: 2nd fWAR to SDP/ 1st in ERA- 

2025-2026 combined:

1st ERA- at 78 (next is 82 SDP)

2nd fWAR at 13.1 (SDP at 15.4)

3rd in FIP (3.66)

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

While acknowledging that the LOA says 1-2 players will go sideways, we also have a ton of payroll flexibility.  In 2028, our payroll is only $118M plus arbitration.  That's a lot of room to sign an ace, a closer, and maybe re-up Rut.

2028

SP: Crochet, Tolle, Bello, Suarez, ______, Bello, Crawford (Wehunt/Holobetz/Paez)

RP: _____, Miller, Slaten, Moran, Weissert, Kelly, Rivera, Samaniego (Phillips, Mullins)

C: ______, Wong (GasperJo Garcia)

1B: Contreras, Romy (Gasper, Casas, Gonzales)

2B: Mead, Seigler

3B: Durbin, Romero

SS: Arias, Story (option)/Monasterio/Cheng

LF: Anthony, Jones

CF: Rafaela, White

RF: Abreu (Gonzales)

DH: _______ Gasper,Duran, Campbell (Brannon/Cespedes)

 

[moonslav59]

2022-2026 (260+ PAs vs LHPs) OPS

9. Willson Contreras .892

10. Jahmai Jones .888

31. Refsnyder .848 (2026 is killing his numbers)

41. Romy .840

80. Meidroth .799

 

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS since trade deadline:

(In order of most PAs) 

.814 Sogard (yes, leads the team in PAs since 8/4)

.968 Abreu (taking over)

.606 Rafaela (don't let Fred know this)

.694 Durbin (might be a career .700 batter)

.553 Monasterio (it was fun while it lasted)

.758 Contreras (maybe the IL can give him a boost)

.598 Rutschman (67 PAs is more than Wong's 56)

1.525 Gasper (59 PAs is moving from tiny sample to small)

.572 Wong (back to earth with a thud)

.629 White (decent bench player)

.853 Yoshida (Gasper helped take up his slack)

1.218 Anthony (I shudder to think of a full season)

1.487 Jones (strict platoon, but who cares?)

1.000 Story (just 20 PAs, but eh did end 2025 well)

1.389 Rogers (earned im a DFA)

.333 IKF (welcome back Mr. K.)

[moonslav59]

Perhaps some meaningful fWAR comps:

4.5 Bregman v 2.4 Durbin or 5.8 Durbin + Suarez (Breg $$)

3.9 Pete Alonso v 3.9 Contreras (2.5 Schwarber & Murakami)

3.5 Paredes v 0.2 Duran

1.8 Bichette v 1.8 Sox 2B team WAR

4.0 Arraez, 3.9 B Lowe, 2.6 Hoerner, 2.3 KMarte v 1.8 Sox 2B in '26

3.2 Abrams, 2.8 Neto, 1.7 Bogey v 0.5 Sox SS team WAR

4.1 Harrison + Drohan+ DHam v 2.7 Durbin+Seigler+Monasterio

5.4 Cease (+$$$) v 3.4 Suarez

3.6 Harrison + Drohan v 3.4 Suarez

1.9 Drohan or 1.7 Harrison v 2.4 Gray or 2.4 Bennett

-0.2 Perales v 2.4 Bennett

3.3 TMay+ Buehler v 3.4 Suarez 

3.8 Harrison+ Drohan+ Dobbins + Preister + Perales

v

8.1 Suarez+Gray+Bennet + Oviedo

[Nick]

Isn't it time (next year) to part ways with Duran? My hope is he just turns it on during playoffs and increase his market value. Then trade him no matter even if he's the MVP of the World Series. You know he can't sustain it.

At some point, shouldn't a $130M, 22 year old play left field instead of just DH'ing? We also have Mead coming back at some point next year.

One more year and Story is history too. 

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Nick said:

Isn't it time (next year) to part ways with Duran? My hope is he just turns it on during playoffs and increase his market value. Then trade him no matter even if he's the MVP of the World Series. You know he can't sustain it.

At some point, shouldn't a $130M, 22 year old play left field instead of just DH'ing? We also have Mead coming back at some point next year.

One more year and Story is history too. 

We will lose 2 pretty big contracts and 2 moderate ones in 1-2 years: Story & Yoshida and Sandoval & Duran. None need equal replacement players.

Sonny's departure this winter and Chapman's next will demand attention, but that's it until after 2029.

[moonslav59]

June 18th is not when we turned on the afterburners, but it represents the date whereby we played more games after than before. (72 games after and 71 games before)

MLB Numbers since June 18th 

W-L

49-23 BOS

44-27 TBR

42-26 CHC

43-29 MIL

40-28 PHI 

The teams most talked about? LAD 37-30 & NYY 36-34.

Runs

421 CWS

360 BOS

337 MIL

336 WSH

333 PHI

The Yanks are 28th at 263!

Runs Allowed

263 DET

264 BOS (1 run from first)

267 NYY

275 ATL

280 LAD/PHI

282 TBR, 283 MIL, 284 MIA, 285 BAL

________________________

OPS

.815 CHC (astounding!)

.763 WSH (52 behind first)

.761 BOS (1st in AL)

.751 TBR

ERA-

75 NYY

78 BOS

83 DET

87 MIL & TBR

____________________

wRC+

126 CHC

111 SDP

110 BOS (1st in AL)

108 TBR, TEX & WSH

FIP

3.49 BOS

3.65 NYY

3.69 BAL

_______________

I've seen many a poster use smaller sample sizes than this to make points, but 72 games is pretty impressive. Move the period to the start of the historic stretch, and we look even better than we already do, here.

Yes, 27 games is pretty long too and 13-14 is concerning, but that is precise cherry-picking, since we are also 13-9 in the last 22 and 4-2 in the last 6.

After today's game with BAL, we play...

3 v LAA

Day Off

3 v KCR

Day Off

(Nice to have two days off before the last road trip)

3 at TEX

3 at TBR

Day Off

3 v CLE

3 v CHC

(THose last 9 games are rough, but we play 12 of the last 18 at home.

19 games to go and...

7.5 GB TBR who is not stumbling

4.0 GB NYY who is struggling but took those 3 of 4 from us.

+6 on TOR & CLE (tied for last WC slot)

+8 on TEX

+9 on BAL

 

[moonslav59]

18 games to go.

We are 79-65.

We were ....

79-65 in 2025

81-63 in '21

98-46 in '18

87-57 in '13, '07 and '04

(84-60 in 2003)

[Hugh2]

On 9/4/2026 at 11:54 AM, Randy Red Sox said:

True but if Evanyson turns out as projected it will still be a bad trade.

I think this is the absolute worse way to evaluate a trade. 
 

everyone is trying to get value, you have to give up something to get something. It’s not about trying to trade guys who will bust but rather bring in guys who will help your team.

the Rutchman trade should 100% be judged by how well Adley performs for this team.

[moonslav59]

Selected MLB ERA- Leaders (99+ IP)

1. Miso 48

2. Schlitter 49

3. Sale 50

7. ERod 61

9. Gray 63

20. Tolle 74

26. Martin Perez 78

26. Bennett 78

28. Wacha 79

29. Early & Suarez 80

4 in the top 29

9 Sox and ex-Sox starters in top 29.

 

[Randy Red Sox]

24 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I think this is the absolute worse way to evaluate a trade. 
 

everyone is trying to get value, you have to give up something to get something. It’s not about trying to trade guys who will bust but rather bring in guys who will help your team.

the Rutchman trade should 100% be judged by how well Adley performs for this team.

i totally disagree.  it should be judged on how the trade works out for BOTH teams.

[moonslav59]

If AR just gives us meh, then of course, how the players we give up do is going to be how the final grade is measured.

If AR does well, but not great, then that changes things somewhat.

If he does very well, despite no ring, I think the return players shouldn't matter much, but if Eyanson wins a Cy Young then...

If AR helps us win a ring, it doesn't matter what the others do, to me.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i totally disagree.  it should be judged on how the trade works out for BOTH teams.

But it matters not a whit to me how Devers does with SF.  I got Durbin, and i am really happy with that.

[JoeBrady]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If AR helps us win a ring, it doesn't matter what the others do, to me.

I'm sure a couple of people, with better memories than me, will remember the names, but who did we give up for Eovaldi and/or Pearce.  Who'd we give up for Peavy?

[notin]

4 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I think this is the absolute worse way to evaluate a trade. 
 

everyone is trying to get value, you have to give up something to get something. It’s not about trying to trade guys who will bust but rather bring in guys who will help your team.

the Rutchman trade should 100% be judged by how well Adley performs for this team.

I think too often fans measure trades immediately and judge who won the trade.  I agree, the performance of Eyanson isnt the measure here.  The whole nature of trades is that each team is supposed to benefit; it’s not about ripping off one team and getting something for nothing…