A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II

[JoeBrady]

44 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Remains to be seen what Mead can provide. Doesn't have a long track record. I'm not sure I'd rush him back this season.

IMO, the fracture heals, or it doesn't.  He probably needs some minor ABs (will they still be playing?), but I'd have no problem with his track record.

[vegasbob]

8 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

IMO, the fracture heals, or it doesn't.  He probably needs some minor ABs (will they still be playing?), but I'd have no problem with his track record.

AAA season ends September 20. then their playoffs end on the 26th

If Mead isn't actively swinging the bat yet he will likely run out of time for a reasonable rehab stint

[Randy Red Sox]

23 hours ago, notin said:

I agree the Sox gave up a lot, but when all the dust settles it might wind up the Sox gave up Eyanson and a bunch of career minor leaguers for Rutschman, too…

True but if Evanyson turns out as projected it will still be a bad trade.

[JoeBrady]

17 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

True but if Evanyson turns out as projected it will still be a bad trade.

In trades involving prospects, if the prospects pan out, the acquiring team will almost always win.  If Eyanson develops into a #3, he will like accrue 15 WAR in his 6+ years of control.  Had Verdugo maintained his LA stats from 2019, we'd have won that trade.

And the teams acquiring prospects usually come out ahead in most cases.  It's an overpay for current help in exchange for future help.

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Remains to be seen what Mead can provide. Doesn't have a long track record. I'm not sure I'd rush him back this season.

"doesn't have a long track record".....so, yeah, lets trade a starting pitcher for his guy. another trade that's gonna bite Brez in the ass.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

"doesn't have a long track record".....so, yeah, lets trade a starting pitcher for his guy. another trade that's gonna bite Brez in the ass.

It's interesting because I was higher on Early than most people when he was a prospect. When he got to the bigs and everyone thought he was a top of the rotation guy, I just didn't see it that way. To me, he is a 4th starter. The Sox haven't been able to develop impact bats. Mead was an impact bat the first half of this season. They have control over him for several years. I'm fine with the trade. 

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Except for Rutschman, that's also our 2028 lineup.

And except for Rut & Contreras, I think it is also our 2029 & 2030 lineup.

Yup, and Crochet, Tolle, Bennett & Suarez have 5 years of control.

We have 7 of 9 line-up slots filled for 1-2 more years and 4 rotation slots filled for 5. Those are the high priced slots.

We'll need a SP'er next year (Houck/Crawford/Oviedo?), a closer (Whitlock?) and catcher after 2027 (Jo Garcia/Wong?) and 1Bman after 2028 (Gonzalez/Casas/Romy/Brannon/Jo Garcia?)

That's not much.

 

[Randy Red Sox]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yup, and Crochet, Tolle, Bennett & Suarez have 5 years of control.

We have 7 of 9 line-up slots filled for 1-2 more years and 4 rotation slots filled for 5. Those are the high priced slots.

We'll need a SP'er next year (Houck/Crawford/Oviedo?), a closer (Whitlock?) and catcher after 2027 (Jo Garcia/Wong?) and 1Bman after 2028 (Gonzalez/Casas/Romy/Brannon/Jo Garcia?)

That's not much.

 

the options you have offered here are not really that encouraging.

[Maxbialystock]

3 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

True but if Evanyson turns out as projected it will still be a bad trade.

When the  trade was made it seemed obvious the Sox needed hitting more than pitching.   

Ironically the pitching nosedived in August and the hitting got better without Mead and with Rutschman's OPS  a lousy .500.  Trading Early had no effect on the pitching because he's been on the IL since June 30.  

On the other hand, Gasper's hitting has been a godsend--completely unexpected--and so had Anthony who is hitting like last season.  Heck, even Story has been good at the plate.  

When Contreras and Rafaela return, I see a pretty good lineup:  

Anthony LF

Gasper DH

Abreu RF

Contreras 1b

Rutschman C 

Story SS

Rafaela CF

Durbin 3b

Kiner-Falefa. 2b

On the bench Duran, Wong,  Jones, Sogard, Monasterio, 

 

 

 

 

[vegasbob]

Amazing how Story and Anthony finally appear a few days ago and commence hitting but just as quickly we lose Contreras and now Rafaela for a few days.       

That the Sox are still in a commanding position in the WC race with the extent of 2026 injuries to key players is amazing.    The long duration IL stays is just as amazing.  Do these guys never heal?

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Yup, and Crochet, Tolle, Bennett & Suarez have 5 years of control.

We have 7 of 9 line-up slots filled for 1-2 more years and 4 rotation slots filled for 5. Those are the high priced slots.

We'll need a SP'er next year (Houck/Crawford/Oviedo?), a closer (Whitlock?) and catcher after 2027 (Jo Garcia/Wong?) and 1Bman after 2028 (Gonzalez/Casas/Romy/Brannon/Jo Garcia?)

That's not much.

 

While acknowledging that the LOA says 1-2 players will go sideways, we also have a ton of payroll flexibility.  In 2028, our payroll is only $118M plus arbitration.  That's a lot of room to sign an ace, a closer, and maybe re-up Rut.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

the options you have offered here are not really that encouraging.

True. Maybe 1 or two work out okay or well, but there are only 4 slots needed in 1-2 years.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

While acknowledging that the LOA says 1-2 players will go sideways, we also have a ton of payroll flexibility.  In 2028, our payroll is only $118M plus arbitration.  That's a lot of room to sign an ace, a closer, and maybe re-up Rut.

I think we are set up pretty well.

We have 2 major slots to fill for next season and 2 for 2028.

We have a solid bench.

The pen always will need infusions, but that is true for every team, and Brez has done an admirable job for 3 years- often with no names or reclamation projects that work out.

We don't even lose than many big players after 3 years. We have some slots looking solid for 4-5+ years. Granted, some may go south or sideways, but with the depth we have, we should not get burned at any position. (Catcher could get scary. Closer, too. We'll need a SP'er but look to have decent depth, if Houck, Crawford & Oviedo return and Bello loses the yips.)

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

The pen always will need infusions, but that is true for every team,

And even at that, BPs are a bit of a crap shoot.  Coming into this season, I thought Chapman and Whitlock would be very good, Slaten, maybe Weissert would be okay+, and the rest meh.  And most of us hoped to add a decent+ RP.  And here we are; 2nd in ERA and 1st in OPS.  Who'd have thought?

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

And even at that, BPs are a bit of a crap shoot.  Coming into this season, I thought Chapman and Whitlock would be very good, Slaten, maybe Weissert would be okay+, and the rest meh.  And most of us hoped to add a decent+ RP.  And here we are; 2nd in ERA and 1st in OPS.  Who'd have thought?

Yup, and not all Brez;'s adds worked.

We cycled through Watson (56 IP is 2nd on team in RP IP) and Coulombe (22 IP is 10th)

Whodathunk Bello would lead the team in IP with Watson 2nd.

Last year, Bernardino, Murphy & Kelly had 35+ IP.

Some Sox pen numbers:

2024: 18t in fWAR/ 24t in ERA- (Kinda letdown seasons from carry-overs Jansen, Martin & Winck (153 IP combined)

2025: 2nd in fWAR/ 2nd in ERA+ to SDP

2026: 2nd fWAR to SDP/ 1st in ERA- 

2025-2026 combined:

1st ERA- at 78 (next is 82 SDP)

2nd fWAR at 13.1 (SDP at 15.4)

3rd in FIP (3.66)

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

While acknowledging that the LOA says 1-2 players will go sideways, we also have a ton of payroll flexibility.  In 2028, our payroll is only $118M plus arbitration.  That's a lot of room to sign an ace, a closer, and maybe re-up Rut.

2028

SP: Crochet, Tolle, Bello, Suarez, ______, Bello, Crawford (Wehunt/Holobetz/Paez)

RP: _____, Miller, Slaten, Moran, Weissert, Kelly, Rivera, Samaniego (Phillips, Mullins)

C: ______, Wong (GasperJo Garcia)

1B: Contreras, Romy (Gasper, Casas, Gonzales)

2B: Mead, Seigler

3B: Durbin, Romero

SS: Arias, Story (option)/Monasterio/Cheng

LF: Anthony, Jones

CF: Rafaela, White

RF: Abreu (Gonzales)

DH: _______ Gasper,Duran, Campbell (Brannon/Cespedes)