A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Yes but Duran sat a few times earlier in the season with Cora was trying to work out that rotation Brez had handled him.

Anthony isn't here right now though. 

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Anthony isn't here right now though. 

That was the obvious plan for the LHB, in place of Yoshida, but also in case Duran flubbed up.

Anthony might also be a reason we avoided getting a LH OF bat at the deadline and got White instead.

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That was the obvious plan for the LHB, in place of Yoshida, but also in case Duran flubbed up.

Anthony might also be a reason we avoided getting a LH OF bat at the deadline and got White instead.

They didn't need a LHB. They already had Duran, Masa and Abreu. 

[Maxbialystock]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

There's a rule that every team has to start a suckee?

No rule like that although suckees have definitely started for the Sox and every other MLB team.

The issue is why Duran doesn't just start but starts the 3d most games on the team.   And my answer is that he ain't all bad and that his hitting, while infrequent, is sometimes timely.  Last night he stunk to high heaven until the 9th when he led off with a double in a 2-1 game and against a closer with heat, 25 saves, and an ERA of 1.31.  I say again, he is 3d in dingers, 4th in rbi's, 4th in total bases, and 2d in stolen bases.  He also K's way more than anyone else but nevertheless has an OPS of .832 with RISP.  

I don't think we are going to reach common ground on this because I also think it was smart of Breslow not to dump Duran last winter.  Remember all the brouhaha about 4 outfielders being 1 too many?  Well this year Anthony has played in 30 games--17 as DH--and Duran in 111 of 118.  Both Cora and Tracy have played Duran a ton despite his season to date OPS of .614.   So three different honchos--Breslow, Cora, and Tracy--have agreed that Mr. Suckee is playable.  In a season which includes a 35 game stretch now claimed to be the best in MLB history.  If Mr Suckee's job was to drag the Sox down and keep them in mediocrity, he did a lousy job of it. 

[Old Red]

37 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That was the obvious plan for the LHB, in place of Yoshida, but also in case Duran flubbed up.

Anthony might also be a reason we avoided getting a LH OF bat at the deadline and got White instead.

Anthony was the so called obvious choice, because they expected him to pick up where he left off last year, and they expected big things from him this year, and not, because of anything to do with Duran IMO.

[mvp 78]

38 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Both Cora and Tracy have played Duran a ton despite his season to date OPS of .614.   So three different honchos--Breslow, Cora, and Tracy--have agreed that Mr. Suckee is playable. 

He's only playable because they didn't trade him for prospects and grab a cheap RHB replacement like Grichuk. Add a platoon partner like Bleday and you'd still save $$$. A much better LF than Duran too. 

[Maxbialystock]

Back to a "Realistic View of the 2026 Sox"--

Yes, 3 straight losses, 2 of them to the lowly A's, are dismaying.  But guess what?  The Dodgers, easily the best team in MLB, loss 3 straight to the Sox at Dodger Stadium.  

I defer to no one on my ability to worry too much.  Despite that, I know the season is already memorable because of that amazing 33-5 streak from June 24 tthrough August 7--without their best hitter, Anthony, and best pitcher, Crochet, from last season. 

And they did it with pitching--team ERA 3.49, 3d best in MLB and the lowest in the John Henry eara--and hitting that improved and is now 14th in MLB in OPS with .720.  they are also 10th in fielding percentage and have just 33 unearned runs compared to 80 last season.  Abreu, Rafaela, Durbin, and Duran are ranked 1st, 2d, 2d, and 4th in DWAR's at their positions.  Contreras is awful at 1b with a DWAR of -0.7, but he also has just 4 errors in 828 total chances and a fielding percentage of 99.5%.  Wong's DWAR of 0.7 ties him at 10th for catchers.  

It could be the Sox are slumping, but that remains to be seen.  Tonight the new pricey catcher plays and down the road we can hope/expect to see Crochet, Anthony, and maybe even Mead.  I think Story is being kept on hold.  

One June 23 the Sox clearly had no hope of making it to the postseason and now it's a pretty good bet.  

3 seasons ago, 2023, was Bloom's last.  None of the top 13 pitchers (in WAR) from that team are in the top 13 of this season.  That's an astounding turnover and mostly because of Breslow.  

3 seasons ago these 13 position players had the highest WAR's:  Devers, Verdugo, Casas, Duran, Wong, Turner, Duvall, Yoshida, Story, Abreu, Refsnyder, Tapia, and Regia.  This year only Duran, Wong, Yoshida, and Abreu are in the top 13 in WAR.  The 2023 team finished 78-84.

One big similarity is that in both seasons the AL East had/has the best W-L record in MLB.  

 

[Maxbialystock]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

Anthony was the so called obvious choice, because they expected him to pick up where he left off last year, and they expected big things from him this year, and not, because of anything to do with Duran IMO.

Absolutely true about Anthony vs Duran.  Yet Breslow kept Duran, who I argue has been usable this season despite his abysmal OPS of .613.  

[Maxbialystock]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He's only playable because they didn't trade him for prospects and grab a cheap RHB replacement like Grichuk. Add a platoon partner like Bleday and you'd still save $$$. A much better LF than Duran too. 

What prospects?????!!!!!  You think Duran was a hot ticket last winter?  And why oh why would you opt for two leftfielders when you already have freaking Anthony--plus Rafaela in CF and Abreu in RF.   And neither one is as good a leftfielder as Duran (or Anthony for that matter).  

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

What prospects?????!!!!!  You think Duran was a hot ticket last winter?  And why oh why would you opt for two leftfielders when you already have freaking Anthony--plus Rafaela in CF and Abreu in RF.   And neither one is as good a leftfielder as Duran (or Anthony for that matter).  

Trade him for anybody. Bleday/Grichuk platoon would be better than Duran. Keeping him for injury insurance at 10M/yr is silly.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

They didn't need a LHB. They already had Duran, Masa and Abreu. 

My point is DEMOTE DURAN.

If we do, who plays LF v RHPs? Sub .500 Jones? .620 White?

Platoon a LHB in LF with RHB White/Jones.

Avoid using Masa in LF.

[JoeBrady]

On 8/10/2026 at 10:13 PM, moonslav59 said:

There's a rule that every team has to start a suckee?

An informal rule to be sure, but yeah, everyone has a weakness.  Take a look at the NYY with Wells, Jazz, Grisham, and McMahon all under a 1.0 bWAR.

[JoeBrady]

20 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He's only playable because they didn't trade him for prospects and grab a cheap RHB replacement like Grichuk. Add a platoon partner like Bleday and you'd still save $$$. A much better LF than Duran too. 

Grichuk has a negative bWAR over 2025/26 and Bleday was cut by the As.  Hoping that either of them was better than the 4.9 bWAR Duran is wishful thinking.

Even now, Grichuk has -0- HRs and a 16/2 K/W in his last 65 ABs.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Grichuk has a negative bWAR over 2025/26 and Bleday was cut by the As.  Hoping that either of them was better than the 4.9 bWAR Duran is wishful thinking.

Even now, Grichuk has -0- HRs and a 16/2 K/W in his last 65 ABs.

Not sure what 2025 has to do with this TBH! We're in the here and now where Duran has a 64 wRC+ and has the lowest fWAR for any qualified LFer in MLB! 

[moonslav59]

50 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

An informal rule to be sure, but yeah, everyone has a weakness.  Take a look at the NYY with Wells, Jazz, Grisham, and McMahon all under a 1.0 bWAR.

Not many teams play one, if they have another better option.

We do.

[moonslav59]

Duran has a wRC+ of 96 since late July 2024- a sample size ove 1400 PAs.

How long of a leash are some of you willing to give him in hops he reverts to 2023, 2024 and early 2025 form?

It's like gumby world here.

[Old Red]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Not many teams play one, if they have another better option.

We do.

Who are you blaming, and bashing for doing that? Tracy? bresLOW? Both?🤔

[notin]

21 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He's only playable because they didn't trade him for prospects and grab a cheap RHB replacement like Grichuk. Add a platoon partner like Bleday and you'd still save $$$. A much better LF than Duran too. 

While Grichuk has carved out a decent career for himself as a platoon player that can crush LHP, Bleday looked like a bad idea before the season as a league average hitter that hadn’t been living up to the hype of being the #4 overall pick.

Not sure what to think about wanting to add Bleday while subtracting the same struggling legacy in Mayer…

[mvp 78]

 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

20 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Back to a "Realistic View of the 2026 Sox"--

Yes, 3 straight losses, 2 of them to the lowly A's, are dismaying.  But guess what?  The Dodgers, easily the best team in MLB, loss 3 straight to the Sox at Dodger Stadium.  

I defer to no one on my ability to worry too much.  Despite that, I know the season is already memorable because of that amazing 33-5 streak from June 24 tthrough August 7--without their best hitter, Anthony, and best pitcher, Crochet, from last season. 

And they did it with pitching--team ERA 3.49, 3d best in MLB and the lowest in the John Henry eara--and hitting that improved and is now 14th in MLB in OPS with .720.  they are also 10th in fielding percentage and have just 33 unearned runs compared to 80 last season.  Abreu, Rafaela, Durbin, and Duran are ranked 1st, 2d, 2d, and 4th in DWAR's at their positions.  Contreras is awful at 1b with a DWAR of -0.7, but he also has just 4 errors in 828 total chances and a fielding percentage of 99.5%.  Wong's DWAR of 0.7 ties him at 10th for catchers.  

It could be the Sox are slumping, but that remains to be seen.  Tonight the new pricey catcher plays and down the road we can hope/expect to see Crochet, Anthony, and maybe even Mead.  I think Story is being kept on hold.  

One June 23 the Sox clearly had no hope of making it to the postseason and now it's a pretty good bet.  

3 seasons ago, 2023, was Bloom's last.  None of the top 13 pitchers (in WAR) from that team are in the top 13 of this season.  That's an astounding turnover and mostly because of Breslow.  

3 seasons ago these 13 position players had the highest WAR's:  Devers, Verdugo, Casas, Duran, Wong, Turner, Duvall, Yoshida, Story, Abreu, Refsnyder, Tapia, and Regia.  This year only Duran, Wong, Yoshida, and Abreu are in the top 13 in WAR.  The 2023 team finished 78-84.

One big similarity is that in both seasons the AL East had/has the best W-L record in MLB.  

 

Just a quick question, Max. What has Anthony done so far to be crowned the Sox best hitter?

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

Who are you blaming, and bashing for doing that? Tracy? bresLOW? Both?🤔

Most: Tracy's fault for starting him. (Too much or at all)

Least: Brez for keeping him on the 26. (I'm okay with him as the 4th OF, PR and late inning defensive LF'er for Yoshida.)

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Just a quick question, Max. What has Anthony done so far to be crowned the Sox best hitter?

Some felt he might be the best batter in 2026, but Max might be alone in thinking he was already anointed that guy.

No slight on Max, as some thought it was Duran.

Some might have thought Abreu was ready to step into that role.

Few saw Contreras as slotted to be #1 in OPS.

[mvp 78]

Excluding Devers, Anthony had the highest OPS on the 2025 Red Sox. Duran had the 8th highest OPS on the team last season. 

[dannycater]

On 8/10/2026 at 1:51 PM, moonslav59 said:

You know you got my deepest respect, Max, but Duran sucks, badly.

Maybe he can snap out of it, but it's been almost 1300 PAs at .701.

How much longer do we wait?

I'm with moon here, there's a point they are overplaying him...and it's happening now. He just has no concept at the plate, no plan and won't take balls to LF like Yoshida

[oldtimer]

Another suggestion being floated today is that we should go after Lindor to solve our SS weaknesses. I understand Lindor is 32 years old and has played only part of the season. While his stats are better then Story's at this point, he would be costly and another player in the decline.. I'd rather fill-in and use Story with the expectation of giving Arais an opportunity to be our long term SS going forward. If that didn't work out, we could look again at the 2027 trade deadline. As far as this year is concerned, we still have the possibility of Roman Anthony returning in early Sept and possibly Mead before the end of Sept. We could have a high performing offense for the playoffs. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, oldtimer said:

Another suggestion being floated today is that we should go after Lindor to solve our SS weaknesses. I understand Lindor is 32 years old and has played only part of the season. While his stats are better then Story's at this point, he would be costly and another player in the decline.. I'd rather fill-in and use Story with the expectation of giving Arais an opportunity to be our long term SS going forward. If that didn't work out, we could look again at the 2027 trade deadline. As far as this year is concerned, we still have the possibility of Roman Anthony returning in early Sept and possibly Mead before the end of Sept. We could have a high performing offense for the playoffs. 

We may make some kind of winter move for a middle infielder, but I think Brez & Co. will see other areas as higher priorities.

SS: Arias, Story, Monasterio, Sogard, Cheng

2B: Mead, Story, Monasterio, Seigler, Romy, Sogard (Campbell)

While quantity is never a bad thing in baseball, I'm not sure this is top quality.

Brez my address the LF situation, closer and another top set-up man in the pen.

I doubt he looks to replace Gray, Sandoval and Early with a major SP'er add, since Crochet, Houck, Crawford and Oviedo should be in the mix, but he will likely look to add more depth.

 

 

[Maxbialystock]

6 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Just a quick question, Max. What has Anthony done so far to be crowned the Sox best hitter?

A fair question.  First, I meant last season and specifically July and August.  When he was injured on Sep 3, the Sox hitting/scoring suffered.  This year he stunk but I think it was that injury and I also think he's still a good hitter.  He finished last year with an OPS of .859 in 71 games.