A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II

[moonslav59]

No days off for 12 more days. When you're hot, sometimes you don't want days off, but after that long game, we may need to get creative with roster moves- just to get some fresh arms.

2 v ATH

4 at TOR

3 at PIT

3 v AZ

(day off)

3 v SFG

3 at MIA

(day off)

4 at NYY (in 3 days)

No days off until Sept 10th, so 14 games in 13 days

[moonslav59]

Yanks score 2 in the bottom of the 9th and 1 in the 10th to beat ATL.

The Rays also won by a run at SEA. There was a time the M's looked pretty good,

Sox behind these teams by this much...

0.5 NYY (T losses)

3.0 CHC (2 in losses)

4.5 LAD (4 in losses)

5.0 TBR

5.5 ATL (5 losses)

7.5 MIL (7 losses)

Sox now lead the AL in Run Differential

+89 BOS

+82 NYY

+80 DET (56-59 record)

+42 TBR

+32 CWS

No other AL teams are plus.

NL Leaders:

+139 MIL & LAD

+120 ATL

+102 CHC

BIG GAP

+22 PIT (57-61)

+12 WSH (57-61)

+4 AZ (62-55)

[JoeBrady]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

When you're hot, sometimes you don't want days off

That's a heart/head conundrum.  My head wants one day off per week.  But I don't like off-days, particularly when we are hot.

[JoeBrady]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

There was a time the M's looked pretty good,

That's an epic collapse by their offense.  Maybe Aro is hitting his numbers, but everyone else is down, way down, or injured.

[dannycater]

On 8/7/2026 at 5:10 AM, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Answer: the ADHDeedeedeedeedee Era (I can joke since my whole family has it):

younger peeps have no time to dwell, instantaneously changing channels, tunes, moods, decisions, directions. Everything's a collage of overlapping collages -- my wife, who's a lot younger than me, flips through movies on the remote menu before I can even read the descriptions, and changes songs before I can name that tune.

I've never observed my son listening to an entire song... all his teammates have personalized walk-up songs when they step into the batter's box -- 5 seconds of an intro or verse, then it's Play Ball!

actually pretty good explanation. very short span theater out there.

[JoeBrady]

9 minutes ago, dannycater said:

actually pretty good explanation. very short span theater out there.

How many old people say that about the younger generation?  All of them maybe?  I remember my folks giving me the lecture on my first mastodon hunt.

[Duran Is The Man]

what a run...

[moonslav59]

One concern heard when talking- before and after the AR trade- about replacing Narvaez was upsetting pitcher routines and  comfort zones.

These may be the guys we need to watch closely::

CERA/COPSA

Bennett: 2.05/.518 w Narvaez & 5.73/.821 w Wong

Tolle: 2.86/.474 w Narvaez & 3.97/.759 w Wong (1.50/.350 in 6IP w Rogers!) Career is a bit closer: 4.05/.619 Narvaez & 3.97/.744 w Wong.

Gray has been better w Wong. Suarez about the same. Sandoval pitched one game with Narvaez but did way better with Wong.

I think we'll be okay with Rogers then AR (or all 3.)

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

what a run...

The first bullet makes no sense, unless I'm reading it wrongly.

Series opening wins = winning the first game of the series.

We've won the first game in 11 straight series and 17 out of 20, but we lost the first game in 7 out of the previous 8 series, before this amazing run.

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

How many old people say that about the younger generation?  All of them maybe?  I remember my folks giving me the lecture on my first mastodon hunt.

Everytime I hear or say, "THis generation_____" in some sort of bad context, I always think about how people said the same about my generation and the ones before and after.

Take a look at the state of the world, today. My generation has been "in charge" for a while now, and this is on us. We were also responsible for raising the next generation, so....

...something about glass houses.

[Duran Is The Man]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The first bullet makes no sense, unless I'm reading it wrongly.

Series opening wins = winning the first game of the series.

We've won the first game in 11 straight series and 17 out of 20, but we lost the first game in 7 out of the previous 8 series, before this amazing run.

i just copied it off MLB. poorly worded. maybe they should have added "win" after 27th.

[notin]

40 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The first bullet makes no sense, unless I'm reading it wrongly.

Series opening wins = winning the first game of the series.

We've won the first game in 11 straight series and 17 out of 20, but we lost the first game in 7 out of the previous 8 series, before this amazing run.

Drop the hyphenated “series-opening” from the sentence.  While it is accurate, it’s confusing and isn’t germane to thr point…

[SoxPhan]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

One concern heard when talking- before and after the AR trade- about replacing Narvaez was upsetting pitcher routines and  comfort zones.

These may be the guys we need to watch closely::

CERA/COPSA

Bennett: 2.05/.518 w Narvaez & 5.73/.821 w Wong

Tolle: 2.86/.474 w Narvaez & 3.97/.759 w Wong (1.50/.350 in 6IP w Rogers!) Career is a bit closer: 4.05/.619 Narvaez & 3.97/.744 w Wong.

Gray has been better w Wong. Suarez about the same. Sandoval pitched one game with Narvaez but did way better with Wong.

I think we'll be okay with Rogers then AR (or all 3.)

I had that concern. Tolle tossing his best career game in Rogers' first start has temporarily alleviated some of those concerns. lol. Maybe it's an overblown issue. Here's hoping the whole staff never misses a beat. 

[dannycater]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

One concern heard when talking- before and after the AR trade- about replacing Narvaez was upsetting pitcher routines and  comfort zones.

These may be the guys we need to watch closely::

CERA/COPSA

Bennett: 2.05/.518 w Narvaez & 5.73/.821 w Wong

Tolle: 2.86/.474 w Narvaez & 3.97/.759 w Wong (1.50/.350 in 6IP w Rogers!) Career is a bit closer: 4.05/.619 Narvaez & 3.97/.744 w Wong.

Gray has been better w Wong. Suarez about the same. Sandoval pitched one game with Narvaez but did way better with Wong.

I think we'll be okay with Rogers then AR (or all 3.)

Rogers handled Tolle quite well.

[Bellhorn04]

I do hope Tracy didn't have to make a deal with Satan to make this happen.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i just copied it off MLB. poorly worded. maybe they should have added "win" after 27th.

Ahhh, yes. We are 27-3 after this last win, which happened to be a series opener.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, dannycater said:

Rogers handled Tolle quite well.

While I've been life-long believer in Catchers making a big difference in how pitchers do, as long as the guy is good, I'm not sure it matters much. Some pitchers are quirky, and it's more about comfort and routine than how good the catcher is defensively, but it looks like Tolle is not that type.

I doubt Bennet is either.

[notin]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I do hope Tracy didn't have to make a deal with Satan to make this happen.

Did Breslow sign Joe Hardy?

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Ahhh, yes. We are 27-3 after this last win, which happened to be a series opener.

All the numbers have been great, but 27-3 just sounds incredible.

[dannycater]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Did Breslow sign Joe Hardy?

It's like the line in The Natural by Robert Duvall..."homers, doubles, singles. how can somebody play that well that came from nowhere?"...that's the Red Sox, they have 9 Roy Hobbs

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, dannycater said:

It's like the line in The Natural by Robert Duvall..."homers, doubles, singles. how can somebody play that well that came from nowhere?"...that's the Red Sox, they have 9 Roy Hobbs

One of the major beefs about our opening day rosters (26 & 40) was the lack of everyday stars. Many felt Contreras might be over the hill and borderline to begin with. Many felt Duran might get back to star quality, but 2025 made him borderline, too. Abreu was at the age where a peak or career year seemed ready to happen, but since he had yet to have a season like that and was platooned until 2026, he could not be called a star. We looked to have some real good role players like Rafaela, Narvaez, and maybe Story/Mayer could come close to upside projections.

We've just gone 27-3 and 35-2, but how many are clear everyday player stars?

Durbin has been for 5-6 weeks, but you need a full season like that to be called a star.

Contreras has clearly removed the "borderline" and "over the hill" labels and is a star.

Abreu has yet to earn the term. Duran has all but lost any hope of every coming close.

Rafaela looks about to earn the label, but he needs to finish 2026 better than 2025.

The rest are all role players, some 3rd, 4th or 5th stringers to start 2026.

Here are our fWAR leaders:

4.1 Rafaela in 111 gms (11th in MLB everyday players)

3.5 Contreras 105 (16th)

2.7 Abreu 113 (40th)

2.2 Durbin 108 (63rd)

1.1 IKF in just 47

Pitchers:

3.2 Suarez in 103 IP (11th best in MLB

2.7 Tolle (107) 25th despite low IP

2.3 Gray (120) 38th

1.7 Bennett (71) 67th despite low IP

0.5 Sandoval in 24 (projects to 2.0 in 100 IP)

_________

1.2 Whitlock (43) 8th in MLB RP'ers

1.1 Bello (44) 19th

0.8 Chapman (39) 47th

If Bennett did this well over 100 IP, we'd have 4 SP'ers in the top 40. We also have 3 RP'ers in the top 50.

[moonslav59]

On June 26th...

Sox were 15.5 GB NYY and 12.5 GB TBR.

Worst record in the AL and 29th worst in MLB.

Today, 0.5 GB NYY and 5.0 GM TBR.

3rd best record in AL and 7th best in MLB.

[Maxbialystock]

On 8/6/2026 at 3:25 PM, jad said:

Unless you're, you know, ,,, Yoshida.

Historically, Sox DH's have hit a lot better than he has.  

[moonslav59]

34 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Historically, Sox DH's have hit a lot better than he has.  

True, but recently...

1.191 last 5 games

.928 last 28 games

.759 since game 6 of 2026.

Less homers but some decent OPS numbers.