Francisco Lindor a Fit for the Boston Red Sox?

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If you are signing them, you are getting the initial few seasons

I see no reason to fear a quick decline by Lindor any more than Bregman, Alonso, Schwarber, etc.  In fact, imho, Lindor will out-perform them.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

trading for FA paid players at or near the point of decline hurts the budget

That's all relative.  In a perfect world, you would go after guys like Harper, who should be prime for half of his seasons.  But most FAs don't give you that option.  No matter what you do, there will be a deferred acquisition cost.  Harper is still signed to age 38, Bogaerts to age 40 or so, Soto to age 40.

TBH. I hardly even consider Lindor's contract that big a drag.

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

The idea remains that, if we wanted to sign guys until they were 36-37, we shouldn't object to trading for guys until they are 36-37.  Or from a more philosophical perspective, any player that plays at the level of the guys I mentioned, are either signed until age 36-37, or free agents to be, or unavailable, or prohibitively expensive.

So maybe dont go into FA or trading out of fear of overpaying.  This feels a little counter towards your gotta give to get.

"Any (stars) are either signed until age 36-37, or free agents to be, or unavailable, or prohibitively expensive"

Yet somehow stars in their prime do get traded or signed or moved.  And yes they cost a lot. And yes there is risk in that.  But I dont turtle at the cost of what we have to give up to get a star, I get excited at what we are getting.

I get plenty of fans look at it from the other way.  A couple of my friends , when I text them about potential players we could trade for, they start getting real nervous.  When I see RS make big trade , I get excited clicking the link....I have friends who hate it and click out of fear.  They read big trade and get nervous about who we gave up.

[drewski6]

8 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

That's all relative.  In a perfect world, you would go after guys like Harper, who should be prime for half of his seasons.  But most FAs don't give you that option.  No matter what you do, there will be a deferred acquisition cost.  Harper is still signed to age 38, Bogaerts to age 40 or so, Soto to age 40.

TBH. I hardly even consider Lindor's contract that big a drag.

Agreed that sometime having to carry someone for a couple years on the back end of their contract when theyve aged to the point that the contract is now underwater is cost of doing business, but that doesnt meant that you should target players at that inflection point because their prospect cost would be cheaper.  You take it all into account, but sometimes, you just pay the prospect cost to get a star with more prime years ahead (if available)

[JoeBrady]

34 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

You take it all into account, but sometimes, you just pay the prospect cost to get a star with more prime years ahead (if available)

That's why I said it is all relative.  Einstein told me that when we went to school together (he helped me with science and I helped him in math).  All these things balance out.  You can more prime years from Harper and Soto, but you have to give twice as many years as Bregman and Alonso.

In the case of Lindor, here are my key inputs:

• He's hit well since he returned from injury, so I see no performance issue.
• He's averaged 158 GS over the past 4 years, so I see little l/t injury risk.
• He's averaged a consistent 6.0 bWAR over those 4 years, so I see no near-term aging risk.
• At a discounted $22M, I see him as a relative bargain compared to last years FAs.
• I'm not concerned about the loss of Mayer.  If we have Arias, Lindor & Durbin for the next 4+ years, Mayer would have no slot.
• I'd gladly wager he'll have a higher bWAR next year than Bregman, Alonso or Schwarber.
• And he is at the position that needs the highest upgrade.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

I see no reason to fear a quick decline by Lindor any more than Bregman, Alonso, Schwarber, etc.  In fact, imho, Lindor will out-perform them.

What a great argument! 

[notin]

20 hours ago, vegasbob said:

Williams had a very good final season too, after a poor one in 1959. and he had to play the field in order to hit

 

The greatest hitter of all time just might be an exception to some sweeping generalizations…

[notin]

Lindor for Campbell, Bello and Phillips.

Works on BTV, and if I’m the Mets, I prefer some underwater contracts that stand a chance at resurfacing over taking on what’s left of Trevor Story 

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I see no reason to fear a quick decline by Lindor any more than Bregman, Alonso, Schwarber, etc.  In fact, imho, Lindor will out-perform them.

Getting any of these was just money not players PLUS FA money.

Alonso is a year younger and has not really declined.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Lindor for Campbell, Bello and Phillips.

Works on BTV, and if I’m the Mets, I prefer some underwater contracts that stand a chance at resurfacing over taking on what’s left of Trevor Story 

I'd give Mayer, KC and Bello

[JoeBrady]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Getting any of these was just money not players PLUS FA money.

Alonso is a year younger and has not really declined.

It was just money, but more money than a discounted Lindor.  Even if we traded for Lindor without a discount and without having to surrender Mayer, Lindor is still likely a better player than those three.  Mayer would be there for the discount.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It was just money, but more money than a discounted Lindor.  Even if we traded for Lindor without a discount and without having to surrender Mayer, Lindor is still likely a better player than those three.  Mayer would be there for the discount.

For all we know Mayer may out fWAR lindor from 2027 to 2031. I doubt it, but giving back prospects or players is or can be very costly.

We've been throwing money numbers out there, but we have no idea what the NYM will include. They may seek the most money relief with little player returns over the opposite.

Assuming they pay $50M ($10M per year,) is AAV would be $22M.

Alonso's is $31M x 4 (one less year and he's a year youinger)

Bregman is $31M x 4 (someone I did not want at even what we offered for him.)

Schwarber is $30M x 4 (I hesitate to count him, but many of us wanted him at that money.)

All these deals end a year earlier, which limits the "down years" by one and changes the proportions of good vs dent vs bad year significantly. Enough to offset $30-31M vs $22M? Probably not, but then add the players we give up and it's not such a clear choice anymore.

TBH, I'd rather have Lindor than Bragman & Mayer. That's mainly because I thought Breggie would have been a mistake. It's closer on Alonso & Mayer v Lindor, but because we have 4 DHs already and not that I think Lindor will outhit them.. Same with Schwarber.

We need a SS not a DH, so that's big plus for Lindor over any of these three mentioned.

[drewski6]

20 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

That's why I said it is all relative.  Einstein told me that when we went to school together (he helped me with science and I helped him in math).  All these things balance out.  You can more prime years from Harper and Soto, but you have to give twice as many years as Bregman and Alonso.

In the case of Lindor, here are my key inputs:

• He's hit well since he returned from injury, so I see no performance issue.
• He's averaged 158 GS over the past 4 years, so I see little l/t injury risk.
• He's averaged a consistent 6.0 bWAR over those 4 years, so I see no near-term aging risk.
• At a discounted $22M, I see him as a relative bargain compared to last years FAs.
• I'm not concerned about the loss of Mayer.  If we have Arias, Lindor & Durbin for the next 4+ years, Mayer would have no slot.
• I'd gladly wager he'll have a higher bWAR next year than Bregman, Alonso or Schwarber.
• And he is at the position that needs the highest upgrade.

I feel you are paying a premium for his past performance and that hes a short stop, but modern science has shown that fielding is a young mans game, especially key positions, and if he ages into a less premium spot defensively....Im not sure I want to pay that excess price because of what it rules out.

Id be more interested in Lindor if he came with a 2b (elsewhere) who cant play SS, becasue now Im paying a premium for Lindors ability to cover ss.

You cnat get Torres and Blowe and ask one ot play ss.  

Im not not interested.

[drewski6]

20 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

What a great argument! 

wow, what a great audience

[drewski6]

20 hours ago, notin said:

Lindor for Campbell, Bello and Phillips.

Works on BTV, and if I’m the Mets, I prefer some underwater contracts that stand a chance at resurfacing over taking on what’s left of Trevor Story 

If Im the mets, I hold onto lindor over all these salary dumps.

[Hugh2]

10 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I feel you are paying a premium for his past performance and that hes a short stop, but modern science has shown that fielding is a young mans game, especially key positions, and if he ages into a less premium spot defensively....Im not sure I want to pay that excess price because of what it rules out.

Id be more interested in Lindor if he came with a 2b (elsewhere) who cant play SS, becasue now Im paying a premium for Lindors ability to cover ss.

You cnat get Torres and Blowe and ask one ot play ss.  

Im not not interested.

I want Lindor, I want Lindor under the notion that he's going to move to 2B at some point.  Perferably when Arias comes up. 

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I want Lindor, I want Lindor under the notion that he's going to move to 2B at some point.  Perferably when Arias comes up. 

Arias could be up this season TBH.

[Hugh2]

21 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Arias could be up this season TBH.

He could be and I would not hate that one bit at all.  If he's mashing in AAA I don't know how you keep him down.  Durbin/Arias/Lindor/Contreras in the infield.......I could get behind that. 

[notin]

54 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

He could be and I would not hate that one bit at all.  If he's mashing in AAA I don't know how you keep him down.  Durbin/Arias/Lindor/Contreras in the infield.......I could get behind that. 

When did Arias move up to AAA?

[Hugh2]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

When did Arias move up to AAA?

He was promoted yesterday 

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

He was promoted yesterday 

It's like some people aren't even following this team. 🤷‍♂️

[notin]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

If Im the mets, I hold onto lindor over all these salary dumps.

You do realize Lindor is also a salary dump at this stage of his career, right?

[notin]

28 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

He was promoted yesterday 

So whether or not he is mashing in AAA is a ways out…

 

[Hugh2]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

You do realize Lindor is also a salary dump at this stage of his career, right?

At this stage of his career? His last three years he put up a 5.5, 7.7, and a 6.3 FWar. 

[Behindenemylines]

No, we already have a SS that is pass his prime.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

So whether or not he is mashing in AAA is a ways out…

 

Bruml and others have said that once a player reaches AAA, they are ready for MLB. They see AAA as MLB depth and not for further development. 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Behindenemylines said:

No, we already have a SS that is pass his prime.

[Nick]

12 minutes ago, Behindenemylines said:

No, we already have a SS that is pass his prime.

Franklin Arias is one step closer to joining the Boston Red Sox. Most of you dismissed the idea of him playing in the majors this year. Well he's one step closer. Why should we spend big money on another contract on a shortstop. If I'm the owner I would insist on playing him first.

Quit getting stuck with non productive contracts such as Story and Yoshida, yes Yoshida. He's an overpay. What are we going to do with Kristian Campbell? Looks like Sandoval is a bust at his price. Good thing we didn't give Mayer a longer term so called 'hometown' discount contract. 

What about trading Anthony for Skubal? With Anthony's $17M coming off the books, we can offer Skubal $50M for two years and two option years at the same price. Net cost would $33M per year on luxury tax payroll. Think big. You think Skubal would turn that down?

Anthony's contract runs through 2033? Give Skubal $350M for 7 years.

Half kidding of course but serious about our young shortstop.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Bruml and others have said that once a player reaches AAA, they are ready for MLB. They see AAA as MLB depth and not for further development. 

... unless you're a phenom like Tolle learning a secondary pitch... or a batter learning to hit a phenom like Tolle...

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

... unless you're a phenom like Tolle learning a secondary pitch... or a batter learning to hit a phenom like Tolle...

Tolle was in AAA for 3 games before he got called up the first time. That includes giving up 5 ER in his first start.