Is this 2026 Red Sox team…CONTENDERS or PRETENDERS?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

That would mean doing something about Duran. 

Yes, do what is needed.

He's the main reason our LF OPS is so low.

[vegasbob]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, do what is needed.

He's the main reason our LF OPS is so low.

If he cannot be packaged in a bigger deal now , then hold him until Anthony resurfaces or season ends then deal or drop him.

Jarren could get hot but then he might be fully baked.

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

If he cannot be packaged in a bigger deal now , then hold him until Anthony resurfaces or season ends then deal or drop him.

Jarren could get hot but then he might be fully baked.

He can be benched or platooned. He doesn't have to be traded or DFA'd.

LF/DH is an area we could upgrade without paying SS costs.

I'm sure Brez is counting on Anthony to return and Duran to improve. He's also paying Yoshida to DH, and he's been doing okay.

Any bat upgrade will be at SS or C, IMO.

My wishes rarely match up with what ends up happening. They are not predictions.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

5 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

With the way we're playing, if Crochet, Anthony and Story all showed up healthy, I'd ask them to wait outside.

I think I'd let Crochet in.

[MADSTORK]

Helluva run, I’m still taking the under…

[Hugh2]

9 minutes ago, MADSTORK said:

Helluva run, I’m still taking the under…

The under on what?

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

He can be benched or platooned. He doesn't have to be traded or DFA'd.

LF/DH is an area we could upgrade without paying SS costs.

I'm sure Brez is counting on Anthony to return and Duran to improve. He's also paying Yoshida to DH, and he's been doing okay.

Any bat upgrade will be at SS or C, IMO.

My wishes rarely match up with what ends up happening. They are not predictions.

You do realize that wishes can be just as wrong as a prediction. Don’t spare any expense, and don’t sit on the fence.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

1 hour ago, vegasbob said:

If he cannot be packaged in a bigger deal now , then hold him until Anthony resurfaces or season ends then deal or drop him.

Jarren could get hot but then he might be fully baked.

I believe that Breslow and Chad continue starting Duran because they think the '24 or even the '25 Duran will magically appear. But what's actually happening is the more games Duran plays, the more his value is decreasing.

I have no idea what Breslow's plans are regarding Duran. Maybe he doesn't either.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

He can be benched or platooned. He doesn't have to be traded or DFA'd.

Against lefties, we can play Yoshida in LF and DH Romy.  Not ideal, but it can be done.  And it won't be obvious to anyone, but Duran's production has inched up marginally.  7 walks in 12 games.  Even overall, if his BABIP was at his career levels, then his OPS would be as well.

[Hitch]

I'm not starting Yoshida in LF. I stick with Duran and move him in the summer if we can't get a good deal for him in the next two weeks. Anthony is showing no signs of making it back to the team any time soon, so we can't rely on him. 

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I'm not starting Yoshida in LF. I stick with Duran and move him in the summer if we can't get a good deal for him in the next two weeks. Anthony is showing no signs of making it back to the team any time soon, so we can't rely on him. 

Right now unless something better comes along JJ is going to get some playing time especially against LHP. Romy at the moment isn’t the Romy from last year either.

[Hitch]

12 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Right now unless something better comes along JJ is going to get some playing time especially against LHP. Romy at the moment isn’t the Romy from last year either.

Agreed, and I'm happy for him to do so. I do wonder if it'll be a platoon with Duran in left, or with Yoshi at DH. Maybe it's a bit of both. 

[notin]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, do what is needed.

He's the main reason our LF OPS is so low.

Sounding like a quote from a Godfather movie…

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, vegasbob said:

If he cannot be packaged in a bigger deal now , then hold him until Anthony resurfaces or season ends then deal or drop him.

Jarren could get hot but then he might be fully baked.

I wouldn't package him in a larger deal as it only reduces the return. The team is better off holding onto him and treating him as a bench player this season. 

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Against lefties, we can play Yoshida in LF and DH Romy.  Not ideal, but it can be done.  And it won't be obvious to anyone, but Duran's production has inched up marginally.  7 walks in 12 games.  Even overall, if his BABIP was at his career levels, then his OPS would be as well.

Duran has a 548 OPS in those 12 games. That's inching up? 

[moonslav59]

11 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

I think I'd let Crochet in.

The door is wide open for Crochet. We have too many SP'ers already nearing their IP limits.

My guess is Durn is holding the door open for Anthony, and they'd also rather have Anthony DH/LF over Yoshida and Jones, too.

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Duran has a 548 OPS in those 12 games. That's inching up? 

I don't get why some can't just face the facts on Duran. He might deserve a spot on the 26 but not a FT role or line-up spot.

[notin]

46 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I wouldn't package him in a larger deal as it only reduces the return. The team is better off holding onto him and treating him as a bench player this season. 

Duran isn’t some sort of underwater contract that can tie teams down.   I’d be surprised if some/most didn’t look at him as a 29yo outfielder that has been worth over 15 bWAR with an OPS+ of 124 over the previous 3 seasons but is struggling now, wuth a few possible reasons why, such as:

1. Duran completely forgot how to hit.

2. Duran is playing through some sort of injury. 

3. Duran is having a bad year.

I think most (all?) would settle on 2 or 3 and therefore view Duran as a “buy low” option…

[moonslav59]

45 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I wouldn't package him in a larger deal as it only reduces the return. The team is better off holding onto him and treating him as a bench player this season. 

Agreed. He still has a chance at getting his act together, either this year or next, so he should not be DFA'd, but others are hitting better, now.

[moonslav59]

Just now, notin said:

I think most (all?) would settle on 2 or 3 and therefore view Duran as a “buy low” option…

The idea is not to "sell low."

The problem is he may get even lower.

[notin]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

The idea is not to "sell low."

The problem is he may get even lower.

Just distinguishing between Duran and underwater contracts attached to players ineligible to be non-tendered.

Duran is movable. And he can be moved easily if need be…

[moonslav59]

Just now, notin said:

Just distinguishing between Duran and underwater contracts attached to players ineligible to be non-tendered.

Duran is movable. And he can be moved easily if need be…

Yes, he has trade value.

My point is his trade value is lower than his upside potential. That upside potential is what other teams would be trading for, but trading him now would be for an A ball prospect. We have enough of them.

The only real reason to trade him would be for a roster slot (Anthony or someone we trade for,) but does everyone want to keep Yoshida (although hotter) over Duran? Jones over Duran? If the answer is yes, then trade him now for the best we can get. 

I think Duran still has options, but he'd likely have a mental breakdown if we demoted him. 

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

I think most (all?) would settle on 2 or 3 and therefore view Duran as a “buy low” option…

Sure, but history tells us that Craig overvalues us in trades and isn't likely to sell low on him. They'd still try to deal him as a 4 win player most likely, not a 2 win player since they were valuing him as a 7 win player last offseason.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The idea is not to "sell low."

The problem is he may get even lower.

He was at 64 wRC+ last week. He's now at 59!

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He was at 64 wRC+ last week. He's now at 59!

Next, you'll stoop to daily sample sizes.

I guess that better than daily stool samples.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Duran has a 548 OPS in those 12 games. That's inching up? 

Yup.  The .548 comes with a .192 BABIP.  If you believe in reverting to historical numbers, then he should produce better numbers in the future.

[JoeBrady]

38 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't get why some can't just face the facts on Duran. He might deserve a spot on the 26 but not a FT role or line-up spot.

I've heard that about half our players this year.  I'll admit that Duran is a special case, but do you need a list of all the players that we needed to DFA this year?

That said, I'd have no problem with a straight platoon of Duran/JJ until the TDL.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Next, you'll stoop to daily sample sizes.

I guess that better than daily stool samples.

✍️

[JoeBrady]

28 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The idea is not to "sell low."

The problem is he may get even lower.

That can be said about every player that ever played.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Yup.  The .548 comes with a .192 BABIP.  If you believe in reverting to historical numbers, then he should produce better numbers in the future.

That's only if he's making the same contact as in previous years, but he's not. 

xwOBA 20th percentile

xBA 16th percentile

Hard Hit 34th percentile (way down from last year)