Is Jarren Duran a Fit for the Houston Astros?

[Matthew Lenz]

The Boston Red Sox are in the midst of another disappointing season, yet find themselves only four games out of the American League's final wild card spot. Whether they buy, sell, or stand pat at the deadline remains to be seen, but there will be a market for some of their players.

Jarren Duran is one of those players, and Chandler Rome of The Athletic is reporting that the "[Houston] Astros focus at the trade deadline is a left-handed hitting outfielder." If the Red Sox don't find any prospects that strike their fancy, the Astros do have more left-handed relievers than one bullpen realistically needs. This could allow the Red Sox to deal from the Major League roster while also bolstering another position group, especially if they decide to move Aroldis Chapman. However, even if they were to move Chapman, their bullpen isn't necessarily in need of more southpaws.

Like much of the Red Sox offense, Duran has struggled this year, slashing .201/.261/.364 this year with 13 home runs and 14 stolen bases across 82 games. He has two more years of team control.

 

Do you think the Red Sox should trade Duran? Join the conversation in the comments!

 

View full rumor

[moonslav59]

I live in the HOU area, and there was a lot of talk about trades, last winter, namely involving Duran & Paredes. Word is HOU insisted on Abreu and did not want Duran, despite one more year of control than Paredes.

I still think Duran is better than what they have in the OF, but what do we get back? Is HOU a buyer or seller?

BTV has Duran at 5.6 and Paredes at 20. They do have Brice Matthews at 6.4 (5.5 yrs of control) and Yanier Diaz at 4.5 (2.5 years.)

BTV accepts Duran & Wong (4.8 value) for Diaz & Matthews.

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Matthew Lenz said:

The Boston Red Sox are in the midst of another disappointing season, yet find themselves only four games out of the American League's final wild card spot. Whether they buy, sell, or stand pat at the deadline remains to be seen, but there will be a market for some of their players.

Jarren Duran is one of those players, and Chandler Rome of The Athletic is reporting that the "[Houston] Astros focus at the trade deadline is a left-handed hitting outfielder." If the Red Sox don't find any prospects that strike their fancy, the Astros do have more left-handed relievers than one bullpen realistically needs. This could allow the Red Sox to deal from the Major League roster while also bolstering another position group, especially if they decide to move Aroldis Chapman. However, even if they were to move Chapman, their bullpen isn't necessarily in need of more southpaws.

Like much of the Red Sox offense, Duran has struggled this year, slashing .201/.261/.364 this year with 13 home runs and 14 stolen bases across 82 games. He has two more years of team control.

 

Do you think the Red Sox should trade Duran? Join the conversation in the comments!

 

 

View full rumor

 

They weren't apt to trade for him last offseason. Why would the Stros want him now? Sox missed their window TBH. There is no way Breslow is going to get remotely close to what he wants to get for Duran. Sox are stuck with him unless they get a new CBO.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I live in the HOU area, and there was a lot of talk about trades, last winter, namely involving Duran & Paredes. Word is HOU insisted on Abreu and did not want Duran, despite one more year of control than Paredes.

I still think Duran is better than what they have in the OF, but what do we get back? Is HOU a buyer or seller?

BTV has Duran at 5.6 and Paredes at 20. They do have Brice Matthews at 6.4 (5.5 yrs of control) and Yanier Diaz at 4.5 (2.5 years.)

BTV accepts Duran & Wong (4.8 value) for Diaz & Matthews.

HOU has a really pathetic OF aside from Cam Smith. Not sure they are interested in Duran or that their field would be a good fit for his swing. 

[JoeBrady]

1-We'd likely be selling at the lowest possible value.

2-We don't have a reasonable replacement.  IMHO, the best bet is to hope he recovers.

[mvp 78]

Replacement? Just throw Masa out there for the rest of the season. 

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Replacement? Just throw Masa out there for the rest of the season. 

Duran is a lot better than Masa.  Masa projects to a -82 DRS over a full season.

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

They weren't apt to trade for him last offseason. Why would the Stros want him now? Sox missed their window TBH. There is no way Breslow is going to get remotely close to what he wants to get for Duran. Sox are stuck with him unless they get a new CBO.

The only "way" is that his return cost has cratered.

HOU needs and OF'er and a LHB, badly. They probably like other players more than Duran, but 24 teams are still within 5 games of the WC, so some bidding wars will occur, and with so few teams selling, this could get crazy.

[Donnie Sadler was short]

5 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

1-We'd likely be selling at the lowest possible value.

2-We don't have a reasonable replacement.  IMHO, the best bet is to hope he recovers.

Exactly...point #2...we trade Duran & Masa is your left fielder.....let that sink in

[vegasbob]

Watching Duran run to score the first run you think that player is a resource that a big playoff team could use in certain spots

The hole it creates defensively with Masa is a result of Anthony's never ending rehab.

You can't give up a GG'er in Fenway RF so Abreu is a keeper.

I would not accept a lowball for Duran. They can deal  with that in the winter , short of a good offer now from a rich club

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, Donnie Sadler was short said:

Exactly...point #2...we trade Duran & Masa is your left fielder.....let that sink in

Assuming no second trade or no injury to Anthony and no Eaton/Ward, instead.

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, Donnie Sadler was short said:

Exactly...point #2...we trade Duran & Masa is your left fielder.....let that sink in

The other factor might have been:

Yoshida not Duran

but

Paredes not Mayer/Story/Monasterio/Cheng

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Duran is a lot better than Masa.  Masa projects to a -82 DRS over a full season.

Yeah, he wouldn't end up at -82 DRS. Defensive metrics are horrible in small sample sizes. 

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

They probably like other players more than Duran, but 24 teams are still within 5 games of the WC...

Teams shouldn't be falling for the GB of WC nonsense, especially in the AL. If you're hovering at .500 or worse. You are not a team worth investing in. Why spend on a team that would just get SMOKED in the playoffs? Bad business! 

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Teams shouldn't be falling for the GB of WC nonsense, especially in the AL. If you're hovering at .500 or worse. You are not a team worth investing in. Why spend on a team that would just get SMOKED in the playoffs? Bad business! 

I agree. 6 games under 500 looks a lot better than 14 games under 500, but it’s still 6 games under 500 in a very weak watered down league. I’ve said all along that 500 is the magic number, and even then is a very low bar, but get to 500, and then see how things look. It’s still illusion/delusion at this point.

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I agree. 6 games under 500 looks a lot better than 14 games under 500, but it’s still 6 games under 500 in a very weak watered down league. I’ve said all along that 500 is the magic number, and even then is a very low bar, but get to 500, and then see how things look. It’s still illusion/delusion at this point.

I want a team that is in the contention for a WS, not the playoffs. It's a big distinction. Even if they sneak into the back end of the WC, it doesn't really do anything for me. I don't think they can run the table against good pitching because the bats will have to show up. Half of the lineup carry toothpicks. Do people really think a lineup with Seigler leading off can win a WS? Even the bullpen is really lackluster to me. 

This team swept the NYY who are below .500 team without Judge IMO. They also beat the Angels (yuck) and the White Sox without seeing great pitching (I'm looking at you Reid Detmers!). A nice little run, but I'm not taking much from it TBH. The end of July will tell me more about this club (TB/BAL/TOR/ATH/LAD). 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Teams shouldn't be falling for the GB of WC nonsense, especially in the AL. If you're hovering at .500 or worse. You are not a team worth investing in. Why spend on a team that would just get SMOKED in the playoffs? Bad business! 

Some of these teams have not and likely will not come THIS close to the playoffs for several more year. Hell, some teams were thought to be 3-4 years away fro having any shot, this past March.

Some may not want to spend a big chunk of change, so maybe Gray & Chapman are not going to  be pursued, but Duran will be owed between $2-3M, and he won't cost a ton- just more than his worth.

[moonslav59]

All but two AL teams are within 5 games.

All but 4 are within 4 GB (4 teams ate 2-3 GB in the loss column to the last 2 WC teams.)

In the NL, all but 4 teams are within 5.5 GB, but AZ is 7 GB in the loss column. Count them out, and there are 4 teams 4.5 or better behind (all within 4 GB in losses.)

That's 9 teams that are more than 4 GB in losses. That does not mean 21 teams will be actively looking to overpay for what they need. By the end of the month, a few may drop out, but then again AZ or DET could join the group.

Guys like Duran are the type several teams may look to give 8-10 BTV for his 5.6, maybe more if they think he's "fixable." I'm not talking Paredes (20 BTV) for Duran, anymore.

[Old Red]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I want a team that is in the contention for a WS, not the playoffs. It's a big distinction. Even if they sneak into the back end of the WC, it doesn't really do anything for me. I don't think they can run the table against good pitching because the bats will have to show up. Half of the lineup carry toothpicks. Do people really think a lineup with Seigler leading off can win a WS? Even the bullpen is really lackluster to me. 

This team swept the NYY who are below .500 team without Judge IMO. They also beat the Angels (yuck) and the White Sox without seeing great pitching (I'm looking at you Reid Detmers!). A nice little run, but I'm not taking much from it TBH. The end of July will tell me more about this club (TB/BAL/TOR/ATH/LAD). 

I agree mostly. A win is a win, and counts just as much, but yes the Red Sox have been winning against some pretty weak sisters, and yes the Yankees have been a pretty weak sister for quite a few games now. I don’t think it’s been who’s playing the best, but who’s not playing the worst. The Yankees played some bad ball in the field as did the Angles. The Red Sox played bad when they lost those two games in Colorado. I know the White Sox had a winning record, but they are still a bad team. Having said all that I think this is the weakest I’ve seen the league in years, and someone is going to the WS who might not be that good at all, so in that way it’s so different this year, and as KG once said Anything’s possible.

[southpaw777]

19 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Duran is a lot better than Masa.  Masa projects to a -82 DRS over a full season.

If we’re sellers, not just Duran,  I’m sure it doesn’t matter since we would have already waived the white flag on 2026.

[southpaw777]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The only "way" is that his return cost has cratered.

HOU needs and OF'er and a LHB, badly. They probably like other players more than Duran, but 24 teams are still within 5 games of the WC, so some bidding wars will occur, and with so few teams selling, this could get crazy.

If they make a solid offer for Abreu, I’m all ears.

[mvp 78]

28 minutes ago, southpaw777 said:

If they make a solid offer for Abreu, I’m all ears.

I think I'm getting there on Abreu too. He's a guy who plays great for a month and then is mediocre the rest of the season. Not sure he's going to get better than what we've already seen. Maybe his offense pops in another park?

[moonslav59]

50 minutes ago, southpaw777 said:

If they make a solid offer for Abreu, I’m all ears.

I've been waiting for him to "bust out," but it never happens. I do hesitate to trade  GG RF'er who is still the 2nd or 3rd best batter on the team, though.

You are talking total tear down to go this deep.

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Maybe his offense pops in another park?

Then we cue how Brez is an idiot for trading away so many studs.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I've been waiting for him to "bust out," but it never happens. I do hesitate to trade  GG RF'er who is still the 2nd or 3rd best batter on the team, though.

You are talking total tear down to go this deep.

To me, the core of this team isn't good enough to win it all. What do they need to do to get there? What does an Abreu trade look like? It really depends on the return TBH. He's here for 3 more seasons and the Sox don't really have a bunch of OFers ready to contribute. 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Then we cue how Brez is an idiot for trading away so many studs.

I don't know if I trust him to do a tear down anyway. 

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

To me, the core of this team isn't good enough to win it all. What do they need to do to get there? What does an Abreu trade look like? It really depends on the return TBH. He's here for 3 more seasons and the Sox don't really have a bunch of OFers ready to contribute. 

I think the Astors (and other teams) would grossly overpay to to get Abreu back, but would they give what we need? Do they even have what we need?

[southpaw777]

27 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Then we cue how Brez is an idiot for trading away so many studs.

Everything really depends on the return. It would have to be outstanding for Abreu Contreras or Whitlock

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think the Astors (and other teams) would grossly overpay to to get Abreu back, but would they give what we need? Do they even have what we need?

I could make a package, but I don't know if the Astros would do it. 

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think the Astors (and other teams) would grossly overpay to to get Abreu back, but would they give what we need? Do they even have what we need?

Pena?