Red Sox's Craig Breslow Era Is Set to End With A Whimper

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

I'm talking about the entire body of work, not specific moves.  I don't know if it was you who initially posted the comment but someone has to defend the term "impeccable" for an offseason that lead to a team that just got out of last place in the 2nd week of July.  

Quote

 

Yes, look at the entire body of work, including guys like O'Neill who have come and gone- guys like Buehler, too, of course.

Look at the roster and farm he inherited vs the one now. Look at the roster, years of control and budget cost projections of each. Tell me we have not gotten significantly better. 

End of 2023:   https://soxprospects.com/2023SE.htm

Highlights:

SP: Sale, Bello, Pivetta FA), Houck, Crawford

RP: Jansen, Martin, Wink, Whitlock, Bernardino, Schreiber, Murphy

C: McGuire & Wong

1B Turner (FA) Dalbec

2B E Valdez & P Reyes

3B Devers

SS Story

LF Verdugo

CF Rafaela

RF Abreu

DH Duvall (FA)Yoshida & Refsnyder

Farm (sp,com rankings) Antony, Mayer, Teel, Bleis, Yorke, Perales, Wikelman, Cespedes, Zanetello

[jad]

18 hours ago, Old Red said:

You said it best in a lot fewer words that the average fan doesn’t get into the scrutiny of all the moves, or the cost to do so., and yes it’s the W-L record is what matters most, and if some spent time away from here, and went to other venues they would know that. 

 

I'm not sure about that.  Having stars is equally important, since the average Joe schmuck fan doesn't say "Hey!  Let's go to Fenway and watch DURBIN!"  Rather, they say "Let's go to Fenway and watch ...."  hmm.  That doesn't work.  No.  They say "Let's go to Dodger stadium and watch Ohtani and Betts,"

[notin]

3 minutes ago, jad said:

I'm not sure about that.  Having stars is equally important, since the average Joe schmuck fan doesn't say "Hey!  Let's go to Fenway and watch DURBIN!"  Rather, they say "Let's go to Fenway and watch ...."  hmm.  That doesn't work.  No.  They say "Let's go to Dodger stadium and watch Ohtani and Betts,"

Then why did the Marlins average about 5,000-10,000 per game when they had Stanton, Yelich, Ozuna and Realmuto all in the same lineup ten years ago?

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

They can play baseball, but they can't win unless they are hitting HR's IMO. 

Can they win, if they start hitting HRs and play 10th to 15th offense the rest of the way?

How about as well as the last month? June 10th>

16th in runs (2 behind 14th)

18th in HRs (3 behind a tie for 12th)

Personally, I think we need to improve on even our last month's offense to have a chance at making AND advancing in the playoffs, but this offense looks a lot better than 28th to 30th.

Our everyday player fWAR, which includes defense ranks T11th at 4.1. (3rd in D and 16th in batting/running)

We still need to keep improving, but to think we can't is being a bit pessimistic, IMO. Then, when you look at the teams we need to beat, only the Rays look real tough, and don't be surprised if they have a long bad stretch in them. The Yanks have the second best record, but look horrible, recently.

Trades will be made to improve some of these teams, and maybe we will be buyers and improve. Maybe Anthony, Crochet and others return and do well- maybe not. Maybe other teams have returning players.

I'm still leaning "sell mode," but that pendulum is swinging towards buy pretty forcefully, right now.

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, jad said:

I'm not sure about that.  Having stars is equally important, since the average Joe schmuck fan doesn't say "Hey!  Let's go to Fenway and watch DURBIN!"  Rather, they say "Let's go to Fenway and watch ...."  hmm.  That doesn't work.  No.  They say "Let's go to Dodger stadium and watch Ohtani and Betts,"

Lots of fans still go to Fenway just for the experience, and more, and more visiting teams fans are going to Fenway also.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

Then why did the Marlins average about 5,000-10,000 per game when they had Stanton, Yelich, Ozuna and Realmuto all in the same lineup ten years ago?

Miami should NOT have a baseball team.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Can they win, if they start hitting HRs and play 10th to 15th offense the rest of the way?

IF they start hitting HRs??? We're talking about reality here. 

[Old Red]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

Then why did the Marlins average about 5,000-10,000 per game when they had Stanton, Yelich, Ozuna and Realmuto all in the same lineup ten years ago?

Huh? That’s your example?The Marlins?🙈

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

IF they start hitting HRs??? We're talking about reality here. 

Umm, they already started improving.

30th to 16th over the last month.

Haven't you been the small sample guy, recently?

[notin]

13 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Huh? That’s your example?The Marlins?🙈

Yes.  Cite your issues.  Explain why the Marlins are not an example for stars maintaining drawing power…

[drewski6]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Someone claimed the Breggie signing was done to begin the Devers offloading. (LOL)

that is wrong. Breggie was signed to play 2b.

[drewski6]

5 hours ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

I'm talking about the entire body of work, not specific moves.  I don't know if it was you who initially posted the comment but someone has to defend the term "impeccable" for an offseason that lead to a team that just got out of last place in the 2nd week of July.  

Good post, and my issue is that when I voiced concerns last year about Breslows ability to treat people with respect and not make interpersonal conflicts worse, I was told a good amount of yeah, hes a jerk but I mean, we are going to make the playoffs so yay!  And all that matters is record.

And then its like okay, now we are in last place, so the whole "you have to accept Breslow's shortcomings because our record" does not apply, so again I voice concerns with Breslow's ability to human....Im told record/standings dont matter.  The only thing that does matter is that people here called for a few signings that probably wouldnt have worked out , so breslows job is safe.

And bellhorn returned and I noticed him say something like we are just knuckleheads on a forum, thats not a fair bar for breslow and im surprised to even see that raised.....and hes right.

Breslow should have been fired long ago for a lack of leadership, a lack of an ability to be a human.  Thats why he is known as bresbot.  That is why even Theo voiced that he doesnt get human beings.  You need to be able to communicate and you need to understand humans to be in any leadership role.  And that is not arguable.  The best IT department head is not the best coder.  The best baseball manager is not hte best baseball player.  And Ive seen it with my eyes.  Yes, you have grumbly senior coders who moan that they are better at the technical side of their job than their boss, but manager of IT job description and coder are different.

As a CBO, there is an expectation of leadership capabilities.  Of communication capabilities.  And Breslow fails to meet that.  Last year, I begrudgingly accepted well, he got us to the playoffs despite his flaws.....But I am not willing to accept okay, sure , hes terrible and communicating, and sure he went all in on pitching and defense and now we cant hit, and sure hes ruined relationships, and yes we took a huge step back record-wise but breslow gets a pass because joey bagadonuts on a forum wanted bregman and that wouldnt have worked out (even though thats impossible to know).

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Umm, they already started improving.

30th to 16th over the last month.

Haven't you been the small sample guy, recently?

22nd in HR since June 9th. 

[drewski6]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Do we really expect all GM acquisitions and holdovers to have plus WARs every year?

That's the mark?

The W-L record is really all that matters?

Recent results are all that matters?

To those who answer yes to the last two, what's to say about 9-2 in the last 11?

Brez sucks because his utility depth has negative WARs? LMAO. Because he played the $140M guy who hit well, last year and the $90M guy who has like the 3rd or 4th best OPS on the tea over the last 3 years? He was supposed to trade them? LMAO. For what?

Because he kept Duran, when 75% of this board was screaming how stupid it would be to trade our "best" or "top 3 offensive weapon, when our weakness is offense?" Again, LMAO!

No doubt, Brez has made mistakes, and some like missing out on Brez ended up working out well. Some mistakes looked reasonable at the time, but backfired. Such is the fate or every GM to varying degrees.

You ask a GM to make moves and additions that improve the roster. You judge them, when they happen and again in hindsight. Such is the fate of all GMs.

IMO, Brez fixed the decades long problem with the team- the pitching pipeline to the farm. Much is still TBD, but IMO, it's improved vastly. He's also added an ungodly amount of quality SP'ers to the 26, that I'm not sure any Sox GM has ever done, and he's only been the GM for 3 winters and 2 deadlines. Crochet, Suarez, Gray, Bennett & Tolle. What do we hear, instead? "OMG- HE TRADED HARRISON!!!" This was the same guy the same people bitched about him trading Devers for. The comedy never ends, here.

Yes, he botched a major are of need, last winter- the big bat. The pen was also neglected, but hey- newsflash- The budget is not unlimited, and he's traded more prospects than DD. You wanted more than what was possible. Okay, no Suarez or Gray and yes another bat. That would have changed everything?

Sorry for the ramble, the hyperbole & the insinuations that may come across as personal or finger pointing away from myself. I share in much of what I just ranted about and against. I suggested many winter moves that turned out worse than what Brez ended up doing. I'm no better than anyone here: I just felt the need to vent.

We are finally winning and looking like the team some or many of us thought we might be, this year, but damn, Monasterio has a negative WAR. The world is ending!

this is a lot of words.  Breslow deserves to lose his job because he is a pompous jerk and if you are going to be a pompous jerk you better have the results.  And he as of right now, does not have the results.

[drewski6]

Be likeable or win

[drewski6]

19 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

But you're missing the point.  Story was always going to be our starting SS.  Narvaez was always going to be our starting catcher.  Mayer was always going to start somewhere.

youre missing the point that nobody cares.

[Bellhorn04]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

Yes.  Cite your issues.  Explain why the Marlins are not an example for stars maintaining drawing power…

Sometimes the fans are the problem.

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

"You see, trading Duran after '24 will be a bad idea. He'll still have many great seasons left. He's the motor to our offese." 

"No, you can't trade Duran after '25, you won't get the right value for him. It would be a terrible decision to replace him." 

"Look, Duran has no trade value in '26 anymore, you just have to hold onto him!" 

"DFA Duran in '27? It's better to just keep him as the 5th OFer and hope he can turn it around and hit above 600 again."

If you are using Duran as an example to show that some fans will find a way to justify and defend the actions made by executives and CBO - I am with you 10000%

If you are implying that Duran is not merely a microcosm , you lose me.  If we simulate 1000 iterations of a universe where we kept duran but made different moves around him.....but we simulary 1000 iterateions when we traded duran....you will find a mixed bag of outcomes.  

Duran is an example only.  But its not like how we handled duran is the primary reason for why we have a 28% of making playoffs (hey up from 15% 2 weeks ago).

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Sometimes the fans are the problem.

Also it’s quite a difference between the hotbed for baseball in Boston, and whatever Florida is.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

this is a lot of words.  Breslow deserves to lose his job because he is a pompous jerk and if you are going to be a pompous jerk you better have the results.  And he as of right now, does not have the results.

I try to avoid the personal issues, but you make a good point. His personality has interfered with getting the job done, and even if I'm happy about the botched Bregman deal, it's not a good sign for the GM going forward.

How the Devers situation unfolded is also a strike against Brez and a reflection of his personality getting in the way of being a top GM. I do think Devers & Cora played major roles, too, but the man in charge mishandled it.

I'm okay with GMs making mistakes, as long as the net gains outweigh them, but these are different kinds of mistakes than the Sale trade, which incidentally, I did not view as a mistake, at the time. (Same with the Harrison and Priester deals.)

Can Brez listen and learn from the criticism? I'm never one to believe someone can change that much, so I'd guess no.

I will say, I think he has made way more improvements to the 26, 40 and farm than mistakes. We still have a long way to go, but he seemingly fixed the major pitching and pitching pipeline issue and for years to come. The sin of omission for the missing big bat weighs heavily, but given the resources he had, it's hard to imagine filling every need. Fixing the bat issue might have whack- a- mole'd another weak area.

[moonslav59]

54 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Miami should NOT have a baseball team.

Agreed. Maybe even Florida does no deserve one.

I once suggested MIA & TB share a team (40-41 games played at each city.)

North Carolina loves baseball and deserves a team, but they don't really have a big enough city, and trying to build a stadium between population centers, makes it too difficult for everyone to vitis.

San Antonio?

Sacremento?

Indianapolis? Buffalo?

Maybe it would just be best to go back to 28 teams, instead of looking at 32.

[vegasbob]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

In the playoffs, teams need to hit HR's to get through the playoffs. That's the general theory going around these days. High OBP, low HR teams like MIL can have good regular seasons, but won't find success in the playoffs as they will struggle against tougher pitching. 

This team is absolutely pathetic at home and pathetic at hitting home runs. I don't think they have any chance at a ring this season. 

Agree on no chance at a ring this year. It is fun and rewarding to se the Sox on a roll now but it does not change the bigger picture of a roster to win it all.  

What is more likely--the young LH'ers keep this run going onto October or hit the wall at around 125-140 innings. ? Early has probably hit his wall.     Will Sonny Gray's value be maximized at the TDL or just let him pitch through season end for no purpose ?

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

Agree on no chance at a ring this year. It is fun and rewarding to se the Sox on a roll now but it does not change the bigger picture of a roster to win it all.  

What is more likely--the young LH'ers keep this run going onto October or hit the wall at around 125-140 innings. ? Early has probably hit his wall.     Will Sonny Gray's value be maximized at the TDL or just let him pitch through season end for no purpose ?

We've already seen the pitching injuries start. A few more and the season is officially cooked. Really need to go easy on some of the young arms down the stretch.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Which is a terrible premise. If you are forced into those three decisions, how can you call yourself a CBO? 

Every GM has default starters from the previous year.  The idea that any GM would bench Story and bring in someone like Bichette, or any other SS, is a non-starter.

[drewski6]

18 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Every GM has default starters from the previous year.  The idea that any GM would bench Story and bring in someone like Bichette, or any other SS, is a non-starter.

In fact, quite the opposite is true.  Old regime guys get discarded.  Often you eat the contracts.  You dont marry what you inherited from a failed regime.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

In fact, quite the opposite is true.  Old regime guys get discarded.  Often you eat the contracts.  You dont marry what you inherited from a failed regime.

I think that should be the case too, but I guess not! I guess Breslow is just stuck with all of Bloom's leftovers. Poor guy! 

[moonslav59]

The chance at making the WS, due to the weak AL, is not as far-fetched as we may think.

While I do not think we are close enough to be a top 3-4-5 team in MLB, we might be close enough to be a top 2-3 AL contender.

Not sure if needing to be a top 3 MLB team is the bottom line on buying vs selling, but selling does make a lot of sense, as of now.

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The chance at making the WS, due to the weak AL, is not as far-fetched as we may think.

While I do not think we are close enough to be a top 3-4-5 team in MLB, we might be close enough to be a top 2-3 AL contender.

Not sure if needing to be a top 3 MLB team is the bottom line on buying vs selling, but selling does make a lot of sense, as of now.

Every year prior to the deadline, you think the Sox are still in it. 

[drewski6]

32 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think that should be the case too, but I guess not! I guess Breslow is just stuck with all of Bloom's leftovers. Poor guy! 

rule of thumb, dont keep around the acquisitions that got your predecessor fired.

 

Guy getting interviewed: how did this job open?
interviewer: last guy put all our reserves into a crypto scam

Guy getting interviewed: ooooh, I love crypto.

^ see, thats bad interview technique

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

In fact, quite the opposite is true.  Old regime guys get discarded.  Often you eat the contracts.  You dont marry what you inherited from a failed regime.

So your take here is that we were going to cut or bench a 4.1 bWAR Story in favor of a 3.2 bWAR Bichette (or equivalent)?  And his $42M+ contract?  C'mon, everyone knows that Story was the presumptive starter.