Question of the week: Should the Sox trade Contreras?

[Old Red]

18 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

trading the RH power bat of Contreras will leave us looking for......a RH power bat.

Agree, and that’s what I’ve been saying anytime someone mentions sell. Anyone you get rid of especially Con Man, and Chapman you have to replace, which might not be that easy. Look how long it took the Red Sox to find a competent 1B as it is. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Breslow lucked into contreras, he got contreras because he could fit the 17m alongside Bregman. He didnt expect this.  Nobody did. 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Im not sure the exact line between good and great return package, but for Contreras Im not settling.

Mostly because I completely reject the line of thinking on this board that DH/1B dont carry any value.  A good hitter is a good hitter.  And they arent exactly easy to find/acquire these days, even if they play 1b.

But I do think Roman is the 1b of the future.

I think Roman is the IL of the future.

[notin]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

First of all, I fully expect Breslow to get fired after this season.

There is a multi-year trend of us moving towards noodlebat land, and now that we are squarely in it, Im hearing trade Duran (our best hitter in May) and trade Contreras (our best hitter in June).  Par for the course , I s'pose.

Breslow lucked into contreras, he got contreras because he could fit the 17m alongside Bregman. He didnt expect this.  Nobody did.  That doesnt mean he gets 0 credit, im sure there were things about contreras offense that breslow liked.  

Id move contreras, but i completely reject your seemingly devaluation of good hitters who play dh/1b and your overrating of defense first guys.  80% of the value comes from the bat. 

Contreras has a ton of trade value.  And Im not moving him excpet for a big package.

So anything that works out he lucked into, but anything that doesn’t was unmistakable stupidity?

No wonder no one wants this job.

I don’t think Contreas gets traded, but mostly because teams don’t make many deadline trades for players like him, unless they’re cheap rentals.  Most teams in it are set at 1b. 
 

The one team that might want him is Washington, but it’s hard to know if they even make moves ss a buyer or seller.  They are in it, but with so few teams out it could be a seller’s market…

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Regarding the Bad News Sox, Chad is still waiting for that kid to ride his bike into Fenway and turn the team around.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

The Sox haven't been no-hit yet this season, which is kind of surprising. Perhaps today is the day.

[vegasbob]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Yes.  He only needs 19.2 IP, I think.  Will he get that many if he stays in Boston?

I think the option kicks in and his 2027 is guaranteed.  For the Cubs.  They desperately need a closer and the last time they acquired him, things went well…

Sox need to start using Aroldis even in losing games to insure that lption for themselves or the trade partner.

Yesterdays 3-0 game is an example where AC could have pitched the 9th

I definitely think they should cash this chip by the deadline (Aug 3rd ?)

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

8 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

The Sox haven't been no-hit yet this season, which is kind of surprising. Perhaps today is the day.

Well, that post had a short shelf life.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Timely hitting? The Sox never heard of it.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Just now, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Timely hitting? The Sox never heard of it.

Contrares was overdue to cool off.

[vegasbob]

Just now, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Timely hitting? The Sox never heard of it.

Timely is an upcoming strong prospect at Greenville in the Mayer mold

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

The Sox only have 1 LOB so far.

[dannycater]

Is there a dumber question, then trade the only player on the team that has their eyes open when they swing?

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Sox just scored their 2nd run of the series. And you guys say this Sox team has no offense.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Sox just scored their 2nd run of the series. And you guys say this Sox team has no offense.

The Pythagorus Sox

[moonslav59]

I'd want real value for Willson, as well as Chapman. I'm not ready to give up on 2027.

Gray, Coulombe and anyone else who will be a FA after 2026 should be traded. (Assuming no big turnaround by the deadline- yeah right! LMAO)

[drewski6]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd want real value for Willson, as well as Chapman. I'm not ready to give up on 2027.

Gray, Coulombe and anyone else who will be a FA after 2026 should be traded. (Assuming no big turnaround by the deadline- yeah right! LMAO)

I agree.  Im a little surprised there is a contingent here saying he doesnt have much value.  But I guess its relative to what people mean when they use terms like modest value.  Im obviously not expecting a soto package for him, but i would expect a pretty significant return, and it still might not be enough for me.  

Going into next season with Abreu, Contreras, Cedanne, Anthony....Add 2 good hitters and we could be in business.  The challenge is getting 2 good hitters.

Im listening on Contreras because anther team would get him for 2 playoff pushes vs one for us (2027, and thats if there is a season), so like youve said about Duran , he may have more value to another club, so im listening.  But im not settling.

[drewski6]

if we are out of it by deadline and we dont move chapman or gray, thats a bit of a fail. So as we tick closer to the deadline (hour wise), could see us starting to settle for those guys.  Get the best we can. But with Contreras , you meet my selling price, or hes not getting traded.

[notin]

27 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

if we are out of it by deadline and we dont move chapman or gray, thats a bit of a fail. So as we tick closer to the deadline (hour wise), could see us starting to settle for those guys.  Get the best we can. But with Contreras , you meet my selling price, or hes not getting traded.

What is your selling price and how do you tell Craig  you’re rejecting his trade?

Im not worried about Contreras.  Players like him rarely get moved at the deadline, and the only team where he’s an obvious fit is a team that just might become sellers because, well, that’s what they know.

Plus you can always trade Contreras at the 2027 deadline if things aren’t going so well next year…

 

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, notin said:

What is your selling price and how do you tell Craig  you’re rejecting his trade?

Im not worried about Contreras.  Players like him rarely get moved at the deadline, and the only team where he’s an obvious fit is a team that just might become sellers because, well, that’s what they know.

Plus you can always trade Contreras at the 2027 deadline if things aren’t going so well next year…

 

I agree, but the worry might be that things aren't going well for Contreras next summer, and his value is kaput.

[drewski6]

29 minutes ago, notin said:

What is your selling price and how do you tell Craig  you’re rejecting his trade?

Im not worried about Contreras.  Players like him rarely get moved at the deadline, and the only team where he’s an obvious fit is a team that just might become sellers because, well, that’s what they know.

Plus you can always trade Contreras at the 2027 deadline if things aren’t going so well next year…

 

Players like him?  A .926 OPS signed to this year and next.  A guy you can reasonably expect to mash and be a great help to your playoff hopes this year and next.  I think most contenders would be interested.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree, but the worry might be that things aren't going well for Contreras next summer, and his value is kaput.

The worry is that you are trading a guy with 95th percentile bat speed and on pace for 30+ HRs while the team is already last in runs. Get rid of that guy and you're guaranteeing that this franchise has turned back the clock 100 years. 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Players like him?  A .926 OPS signed to this year and next.  A guy you can reasonably expect to mash and be a great help to your playoff hopes this year and next.  I think most contenders would be interested.

Yes, guys like him with that much control aren't typically moved at the deadline. Contenders would certainly be interested, but even sellers don't usually give them up because of the control.

[Duran Is The Man]

45 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

if we are out of it by deadline and we dont move chapman or gray, thats a bit of a fail. So as we tick closer to the deadline (hour wise), could see us starting to settle for those guys.  Get the best we can. But with Contreras , you meet my selling price, or hes not getting traded.

i'm seeing that the Braves are interested in Gray.

 

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree, but the worry might be that things aren't going well for Contreras next summer, and his value is kaput.

yeah, lets get rid of the ONE GUY that can change the score with one swing. 

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Yes, guys like him with that much control aren't typically moved at the deadline. Contenders would certainly be interested, but even sellers don't usually give them up because of the control.

But Notin was implying that there wouldnt be much demand.  I understand being very hesitant to trade him and I agree.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The worry is that you are trading a guy with 95th percentile bat speed and on pace for 30+ HRs while the team is already last in runs. Get rid of that guy and you're guaranteeing that this franchise has turned back the clock 100 years. 

It would be about the future.

You assume Willson stays this good for 2027 and 2028.

IMO, he seems to be aging well, so I'd keep him but listen to offers that would give us pieces that look as encouraging as he does going forward, but without the looming age-decline aspect.

If nobody gives us that- just say no.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

yeah, lets get rid of the ONE GUY that can change the score with one swing. 

You think we have a chance in 2026?

[mvp 78]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

It would be about the future.

You assume Willson stays this good for 2027 and 2028.

IMO, he seems to be aging well, so I'd keep him but listen to offers that would give us pieces that look as encouraging as he does going forward, but without the looming age-decline aspect.

If nobody gives us that- just say no.

I think he'll be very good for 2027. If the Sox think they are going to be competitive, they should keep him. If they are going to punt or receive an offer than barrels them over, they should trade him.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

But Notin was implying that there wouldnt be much demand.  I understand being very hesitant to trade him and I agree.

Exactly.

BTW, Willson is not paid much. Counting the $5M buyout for 2028, he's owed ...

$41.5/2

or

$$54M/3

STL is paying $6M for $27 & '28 and a prorated $2M towards 2026. That makes it more like...

$35M/2 or $47.5M/3

I think many teams would not worry too much about the money owed, if he has a steep decline in 2027 or 2028. Hell, teams pay $35M for one year! (See Bregman)

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think he'll be very good for 2027. If the Sox think they are going to be competitive, they should keep him. If they are going to punt or receive an offer than barrels them over, they should trade him.

Just about what I've been saying.

I'm going on teh assumption we will be out of it in mid to late July.

Even then, I'd like Willson for 2027 and maybe 2028, so I'm not offering him for the best offer- like it or not.

I would do that for Gray, Chapman and IKF