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Community Moderator
Posted
21 hours ago, notin said:

Oh god.  You’re getting data from a Floridian!?!?

Rafaela started off the season with a down season in CF (late reads, some misplays on balls), but has been back to normal this month. 

People in the free state of Florida gather LOTS of data. It's what they tend to do with it that can be the problem. 

Community Moderator
Posted
20 hours ago, Old Red said:

It’s by default. He’s the only one I trust on here.🤫

Thank you? I guess? 😵‍💫

Community Moderator
Posted
14 hours ago, notin said:

Weird.  Hes the deepest analytics guy on here…

Must be the kiddie pool here! Thank you for the compliment. 

Community Moderator
Posted
12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

MVP does watch the games, though.

Now that girls softball is over, I should be able to watch more as long as they are not trying to inflict psychic damage on me. 

Posted
2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Rafaela started off the season with a down season in CF (late reads, some misplays on balls), but has been back to normal this month. 

As is often the case, people see the early numbers and pre determine a player's season based on it.

Community Moderator
Posted
10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

As is often the case, people see the early numbers and pre determine a player's season based on it.

Yes, Rafaela WAS playing bad defense early on. It did lead to losses (there's a game where he lost a ball in the sun when the glasses were sitting on his hat)! He is playing much better now! 

Posted
5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Yes, Rafaela WAS playing bad defense early on. It did lead to losses (there's a game where he lost a ball in the sun when the glasses were sitting on his hat)! He is playing much better now! 

Indeed. He has put himself back on top in CF DRS and will likely win the 2026 GG.

His batting has been more consistent, while he continues to improve on his BB% and OBP over his career.

He used to be historically awful on his BB/K rate. He's still near the bottom 15%, but his .29 is better than Duran & Devers.

Posted
On 5/30/2026 at 1:52 PM, moonslav59 said:

I don't hear the IKF bashing anymore.

I wish we could say the same about Durbin. 3 for his last 8 is not even a drop in the bucket as .479 to .505 is hardly Wow-worthy.

That's why these early-seasons polls are worthless. 

  • Our rotation (B-), including Bello as an SP, over the past 28 days is probably the best in BB.
  • Ceddanne (C+) should be on the AS team.
  • Duran (F) is #10 in fWAR in May.
Posted

May should not be viewed as more important than April- not that you were even implying that- but if it is a sign of a continuing trend, it can be a source of optimism on some players, especially Duran & IKF.

To me, Rafaela looks like a complete player, now. I realize he may slump at any time and fall back to .700 or even below, but I see him as a .725+ batter over the long haul. With that superb defense, he's a big plus and a solid block to the team's foundation. I know Fred disagrees, but it looks that way to me.

Contreras has been the biggest reason our offense is not the worst in all of MLB. He was a great addition. At his age, decline could start, at any moment, but he looks sharp on O and D.

Duran and Abreu might hold the keys to the season. Right now, they are headed in different directions, but I think Wilyer will come around. That's really the only 4 guys I fully trust as everyday players.

We can hope Anthony returns and plays like 2025 not 2026, although that OBP was nice.

We can hope Narvaez or Durbin bats more like 2025, but counting on it seems highly speculative.

We can hope for Yoshida or Mayer to step up, but hope is not a good strategy or plan.

We will need to add a couple pen pieces at the deadline, and of course a big bat to have any chance, but I'm not sure we will be buyers in July.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Yes, Rafaela WAS playing bad defense early on. It did lead to losses (there's a game where he lost a ball in the sun when the glasses were sitting on his hat)! He is playing much better now! 

He sits at or among the top in most defensive metrics.  Even the best fielders do make the occasional bad play…

Posted
26 minutes ago, notin said:

He sits at or among the top in most defensive metrics.  Even the best fielders do make the occasional bad play…

And since he made a few early in the season, and it was widely reported, the casual fan who only looks at high/lowlights and boxscores comes to the wrong conclusions.

Community Moderator
Posted
2 hours ago, notin said:

He sits at or among the top in most defensive metrics.  Even the best fielders do make the occasional bad play…

He was getting consistent late jumps early on, not just occasional bad plays.

Posted
7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Duran and Abreu might hold the keys to the season.

Guys like that generally wind up pretty close to where they are expected to be.  Pitching is different, but the hitters that are key are the ones with more variance.  That's usually the oldest and youngest players.  Anthony, Mayer, Durbin and Narvaez.  Story would've been included, because of his age, but age might've already taken care of that.

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