Early Trade deadline deals the selling Sox should make

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

will you meet me that obp is an important metric but its very close to equal weight to slug?

Some people think its 2x importance (obp vs slug) and thats the myth , im tyring to bust.

I wouldnt argue if someone said its like 55% -> 45%.

I just think if you arent hitting xtra base hits, a plethora of hits and singles are very unlikely to save you.  

Its similar to trying to win with pitching and defense.....Its too much pressure.....

To win with pitching and defense and walks......you need elite pitching, elite defense, and soooooo many walks.....And its just a better bet to go get some dudes who can drive the ball.

2x as important? That's crazy. Equally important or close to? Sure.

The Sox getting like 14 singles and trying to win a game is wild. Need to throw some doubles in there if you're not hitting dingers. Not hitting doubles at Fenway is a nasty bit of business. 

I don't know if it's just a 2 month slump or if there is some serious rot in the hitting infrastructure. Losing Bregman shouldn't make them this bad. We all expected them to drop a little, but YUCK. 

[notin]

18 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

over a long term view, there is a reason ops has been king.  Because they found that obp and slug were almost equally important, and so ppl use OPS. It does have a much stronger correlation with runs than OBP along and SLUG alone.  But OBP just narrowly edged slug......But thats a zoomed out view.

In more recent, due to pitcher dominance and teams having better bullpens than theyve had (maybe not us), I would submit that slug has replaced OBP as top dog.  And by that I mean goin from like 52% OBP vs 48% slug (zoomed out view) to like 55% slug vs 45% OBP (recent years only).....

Because you just cant rely on the dudes behind you as much anymore.  So you want that double so that runner from first scores.  You dont want first and third with 2 outs and now we just need one more.  Cuz the chances of getting that one more are much lower in recent yrs vs a zoomed out view.

Also, getting the bullpen faster isnt as important as it use to be cuz science shows you wanna leave that starter in cuz hes gonna stink third time through lineup (unless hes elite)....so the value in chasing the starter has also gone down

 

I do agree SLG is one of the best measures for a hitter, because it has the widest range.

BA - 95% of the league falls between .200 and .300, and those who don’t are not outside that tight range by much

OBP - Most of the league is in a similar range - maybe .280 to .380. But probably not 95% and they can get further outside.

SLG - the range goes up to maybe .320 to .560 or so for probably 85-90%. I admit I’m guessing here and not willing to get hard numbers.  But it’s not uncommon to see two hitters in the same lineup with SLG that differs by .200.  You rarely get that with BA and OBP, and when you do, at least one  of those hitters has a very limited number of PAs…

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

No, but Durbin is in his second year.

(Abreu is a vet.)

Does Durbin need the big boys to still do a shoe check for him and make sure his cleats are tied at the start of every game? 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

drewski, I've been typing this here for awhile now regarding OPS: give me Slug over On Base, especially since Red Sox teams can't find any group of batters likely to amass three singles in the same inning (we're even starting to hear that from the NESN booth these days).

And I don't want my best hitters taking borderline pitches they can drive, because walks still only advance a baserunner one base at a time.

Of course, the offense the past few seasons has way too much swing and miss, and mediocre batters should also be forced to change their stance, grip and approach with two strikes...

Don't let up on these incomplete roster builders! 

I want an offense with some high SLG guys and some high OBP guys. I want a mix of both to keep the train running on time. 

[notin]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

2x as important? That's crazy. Equally important or close to? Sure.

The Sox getting like 14 singles and trying to win a game is wild. Need to throw some doubles in there if you're not hitting dingers. Not hitting doubles at Fenway is a nasty bit of business. 

I don't know if it's just a 2 month slump or if there is some serious rot in the hitting infrastructure. Losing Bregman shouldn't make them this bad. We all expected them to drop a little, but YUCK. 

I’ve heard the 2x number as well, but it’s a theory at best.

I think Contreras has hit as well as Bregman, but the failure of Durbin to even bring to the plate ehat Toro brought has been huge.  Plus the disappearance of Story and, until recently, Duran…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Milwaukee is 28th in SLG.  Boston is 24th. 
 

Milwaukee has 130 XBH,  Boston has 145.

Youve seen it before.  Have you ever explained it?

I just wrote this a few days ago:

Milwaukee grounded into the fewest Double Plays in baseball. Boston has grounded into the most DPs in the AL.

The Brewers also lead the NL in sacrifice hits. There has to be some correlation why they're among the top-scoring teams in the majors, while the Red Sox are at the bottom.

[notin]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I just wrote this a few days ago:

Milwaukee grounded into the fewest Double Plays in baseball. Boston has grounded into the most DPs in the AL.

The Brewers also lead the NL in sacrifice hits. There has to be some correlation why they're among the top-scoring teams in the majors, while the Red Sox are at the bottom.

And Tampa has all but weaponized bunting as well.

Milwaukee clearly knew their offense and how to maximize it.  Boston saw half the team struggle, wasn’t ready or willing to adjust and has unsuccessfully tried to ride it out. 
 

Milwaukee also runs all the time, negating some of their weak SLG by just taking the bases you give them.  Boston does have the speed to do this.  They just don’t…

[drewski6]

21 minutes ago, notin said:

Milwaukee is 28th in SLG.  Boston is 24th. 
 

Milwaukee has 130 XBH,  Boston has 145.

Youve seen it before.  Have you ever explained it?

No. But I do feel that examples of Boston teams being built with so much focus on pitching and D and still flopping  outweigh examples of other teams going heavy ptiching and defense and not flopping.  Best I got is that Milwaukee will likely run into a buzz saw of an offsensive team in the playoffs (again).

I dont feel like these are winning arguments on my part, tho.

But you do kind of sound like the guy who is like, look , last year , only 3 of the 5 top payrolls made the playoffs....so obviously, spending money is for PR.

[notin]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

No. But I do feel that examples of Boston teams being built with so much focus on pitching and D and still flopping  outweigh examples of other teams going heavy ptiching and defense and not flopping.  Best I got is that Milwaukee will likely run into a buzz saw of an offsensive team in the playoffs (again).

I dont feel like these are winning arguments on my part, tho.

But you do kind of sound like the guy who is like, look , last year , only 3 of the 5 top payrolls made the playoffs....so obviously, spending money is for PR.

And you sound like the guy who says “defense doesn’t matter.  Just get 8 hitters and sort it out later” and ignores that the teams that came in 3rd and 4th in MLB met in the World Series.  😉

[drewski6]

20 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

drewski, I've been typing this here for awhile now regarding OPS: give me Slug over On Base, especially since Red Sox teams can't find any group of batters likely to amass three singles in the same inning (we're even starting to hear that from the NESN booth these days).

And I don't want my best hitters taking borderline pitches they can drive, because walks still only advance a baserunner one base at a time.

Of course, the offense the past few seasons has way too much swing and miss, and mediocre batters should also be forced to change their stance, grip and approach with two strikes...

Don't let up on these incomplete roster builders! 

Good stuff.  Regarding the "whiffing", swinging for slug is going to lead to more whiffing because you are making your swing decisions earlier, meeting the ball out in front of the plate....as opposed to staying back and waiting for the pitch to break, and then slapping it oppo for a single or taking the walk.  Some of the whiffing is approach.  BTW , we are above average in whiff metrics.  

But I honestly dont know how much of the whiffs we do have are from a slug approach or how many are from just not having good hitters.  And its not like Im saying that one should never go the way.  2 strikes outer half, you gotta go with the pitch there.  Line drive into shallow right (assuming righty batter) is a win there.  But how did you get to 2 strikes?  Were you trying to draw a walk or take pitches?  Because an 0-0 count is a fastball count.  And MLB hitters should be looking to punish fastballs and we dont.  Thats different us vs rest of league.  Great article, Yirsandy.

To me, and Im sorry IVe said this to you before, its about the "why" , the mentality.  The thought.  When you are a good hitter and you decide to hold back on a pitch, it should be because its not crushable.  Not because you want to walk but because thats just not a pitch you can crush.  Being selective isnt necessarily about drawing walks.  Its about getting to the mistakes.  And we let too many mistakes go by.  Now if we start swinging for some slug which means hunt fastballs, swing earlier, meet the ball in front, drive it....That pull-air approach will come with more whiffs.  But maybe we can offset those increased whiffs by frankly jsut getting better hitters and reading pitches better.  And we dont need to exclusively pull-air.  It depends a lot on the situation, the pitch, the batter....Many factors.  WHen I play video game baseball, I dont love going oppo but theres a time and a place to do it. And its frequent.  When I play real-life baseball, I have a different approach that is kinda old school.  Aim up the middle so if you are a little early you hit a monster homerun and if you are a little late you hit a line drive single oppo.  Maybe xtra bases into the corner if you really smash it.  But most of my homeruns wound up being to center lol.

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I just wrote this a few days ago:

Milwaukee grounded into the fewest Double Plays in baseball. Boston has grounded into the most DPs in the AL.

The Brewers also lead the NL in sacrifice hits. There has to be some correlation why they're among the top-scoring teams in the majors, while the Red Sox are at the bottom.

MIL

#1 Soft Hit %

#1 GB %

#3 BABIP

# SB

#1 cClutch

#2 Clutch

#1 Adv% 

They are very high in categories like productive outs, moving runners over and base runners scoring. Milwaukee works high counts. The Sox are low in those categories. They are getting the runners on, but not doing anything with them. MIL can string together big innings. BOS can't. 

 

[mvp 78]

Guys whiffing 2% more than league average:

Story

Duran

Contreras

Mayer

Narvaez

Of those guys, I'd really only call Contreras a slugger.