Early Trade deadline deals the selling Sox should make

[drewski6]

This has gone from a conversation about selling to a conversation about buying

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

This has gone from a conversation about selling to a conversation about buying

Just gimme one bat, gimme one bat, mister, gimme one bat for more scores,

Gimme one bat with some longball power and I won't post here no more.

[notin]

27 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Maybe we can bait and switch Spencer Steer out for Elly De La Cruz

They are practically twins…

[notin]

16 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Just gimme one bat, gimme one bat, mister, gimme one bat for more scores,

Gimme one bat with some longball power and I won't post here no more.

Damn you!! That song has been my ear worm for the past 4 days!!

[notin]

31 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

This has gone from a conversation about selling to a conversation about buying

I do still think selling is the smarter move, but I’d also be disappointed if they actually did it…

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

What about Luis Arraez

I'd love to see Arraez at the top of the lineup, as in, mi gusto.  Platoon Romy with Yoshida improves DH.  Let Romy take a few turns at 2nd against select lefties.

• Current lead-off OBP/OPS  .288/.638
• Arraez OBP/OPS  .369/.829

Sometimes I will argue against a move because it's high cost v marginal improvement, like Alonso v Duran (pre-season) at DH.  My thinking is that someone will outbid us because their need is greater.

In this case, does anyone need a quality lead-off guy more than us?  And I know some folks prefer HRs, and I see the hole.  But I'd make a modest wager that Arraez' lead-off skills would help out as much, or more, than someone like Devers.

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, notin said:

He has been worth over at fWAR over the past 4 seasons. It’s obviously a very unlikely trade, but if the Mets kicked in $10mill for each remaining year, it probably works out for Boston better than free agency will…

Trading for past performance sounds like a bad idea. I want a guy who will perform well for the next 4 years. 

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, notin said:

I do still think selling is the smarter move, but I’d also be disappointed if they actually did it…

I'd be disappointed in a middle of the road path where they buy an overpriced middle reliever and get washed in the WC. 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, notin said:

although I did mention Cronenworth in passing,

Is Cro as good as Romy?  Over the past three years, Romy has a 117 OPS+ v Cro's 99.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, notin said:

All that said , I’ve heard zero buzz about the Mets even thinking of trading him…

I'd be shocked if the Mets traded him.  They'll trade pieces, but trading Lindor would be an act of surrender.

[JoeBrady]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd be disappointed in a middle of the road path where they buy an overpriced middle reliever and get washed in the WC. 

Like everything else, I can change my mind tomorrow, but I would not focus on an RP.  We have a crowded and good BP.  The return of Sandoval pushing Bello into bulk reliever changes the dynamics.

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Trading for past performance sounds like a bad idea. I want a guy who will perform well for the next 4 years. 

Agree 100%. Trading for a 32 yr old SS with 5 more years on a contract no matter how much the Mets chip in does not sounds like something that Brez will rush out to do, and nor should he. It’s not surprising there is lots of interest on here in doing so though.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Like everything else, I can change my mind tomorrow, but I would not focus on an RP.  We have a crowded and good BP.  The return of Sandoval pushing Bello into bulk reliever changes the dynamics.

If you take Bello's opener starts out of the pen, their fWAR is middle of the road. It's an average pen IMO. They could use another arm if they really are serious about competing. 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Agree 100%. Trading for a 32 yr old SS with 5 more years on a contract no matter how much the Mets chip in does not sounds like something that Brez will rush out to do, and nor should he. It’s not surprising there is lots of interest on here in doing so though.

I am not going to forecast what Breslow would do. I think the Red Sox internal model is fed acid hourly. 

Kristian Campbell: he's actually a good defender

Romy/Masa platoon at DH: that should be as good as David Ortiz

Jarren Duran: mvp caliber player, untradeable

Mickey Gasper: he can play catcher!

Driveline: have them teach every player to only pull the ball in the air and swing for the fences every time

Trevor Story: actually was still good at SS! 

Kiké Hernandez: the greatest SS this organization has ever had! 

[notin]

15 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Is Cro as good as Romy?  Over the past three years, Romy has a 117 OPS+ v Cro's 99.

I only commented on Cronenworth’s availability and said he would be remarkably easy to acquire, and did so in such a way that it should not be considered an endorsement.  Because it wasn’t.  
 

I wouldn’t deal Yoshida’s contract for Cronenworth at this point…

[notin]

13 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Agree 100%. Trading for a 32 yr old SS with 5 more years on a contract no matter how much the Mets chip in does not sounds like something that Brez will rush out to do, and nor should he. It’s not surprising there is lots of interest on here in doing so though.

No one said Breslow will do it.  No one said the Mets would either, and no mention of a return.  The only discussion was that his contract isn’t a horrible deal breaker for some.

What if you really understood how hypothetical situations worked?

[notin]

27 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Trading for past performance sounds like a bad idea. I want a guy who will perform well for the next 4 years. 

If he stays healthy, I bet Lindor accrues more WAR over the next 4 years than half the starting shortstops in MLB…

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, notin said:

No one said Breslow will do it.  No one said the Mets would either, and no mention of a return.  The only discussion was that his contract isn’t a horrible deal breaker for some.

What if you really understood how hypothetical situations worked?

I understand fully. It’s just more of throwing something against the wall that NEVER sticks. As I said it’s not surprising at all that some would think it was a good idea. Ive heard some real dilly suggestions on here that thankfully never happened. His contact would be a dealbreaker to me along with the player himself hypothetically, or not. Not only no, but HELL NO!

[notin]

36 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd be disappointed in a middle of the road path where they buy an overpriced middle reliever and get washed in the WC. 

No bat would be crushing.  If you can’t get a bat, sell Chapman and Gray quickly…

[notin]

6 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I understand fully. It’s just more of throwing something against the wall that NEVER sticks. As I said it’s not surprising at all that some would think it was a good idea. Ive heard some real dilly suggestions on here that thankfully never happened. His contact would be a dealbreaker to me along with the player himself hypothetically, or not. Not only no, but HELL NO!

You do realize well over 99% of Internet trade suggestions (of which this wasn’t really one) never happen, right?  But without them, it greatly reduces forum discussions.  And it’s not like they’re limited to TalkSox.  I challenge you to find a baseball forum on the internet that doesn’t have any.

I can understand his contract being a deal breaker; you’re not alone there and it absolutely has potential.  But in this case, some folks think it’s a hypothetical risk worth taking.  Of course no one knows if Lindor is even available…

[JoeBrady]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Trading for past performance sounds like a bad idea. I want a guy who will perform well for the next 4 years. 

That's the crux for a lot of these trades.  With Lindor, it'll be 5 years.  Out-performing at age 33 is difficult, so what are the chances of doing so for 5 years?  The odds of finding someone with a 7.5 cumulative fWAR for years 35-37 is a unicorn.  In the past ten years, there is Justin Turner with a 7.7,and Nelson Cruz, but I'm not including him on the PEDs issue.  Even assuming Lindor is THE unicorn, we'd need 10 WAR from him the next two seasons.

Again, I'm not necessarily opposed to adding him, but just not at that price.  Just imho, I'm in the camp of acquiring a 1-2 year type of player.  I think some of the guys mention, Arraez, Steer, Ward, Adell, can supply a lot of value without a lot of l/t costs.

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, notin said:

If he stays healthy, I bet Lindor accrues more WAR over the next 4 years than half the starting shortstops in MLB…

That doesn't necessarily make his contract worth it! 

The 15th SS from 22-25 only had 7.6 fWAR. That's not worth 32 AAV!

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

No bat would be crushing.  If you can’t get a bat, sell Chapman and Gray quickly…

Not many good bats get moved at the deadline. It's not so easy to find one, especially with expanded playoffs.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

That's the crux for a lot of these trades.  With Lindor, it'll be 5 years.  Out-performing at age 33 is difficult, so what are the chances of doing so for 5 years?  The odds of finding someone with a 7.5 cumulative fWAR for years 35-37 is a unicorn.  In the past ten years, there is Justin Turner with a 7.7,and Nelson Cruz, but I'm not including him on the PEDs issue.  Even assuming Lindor is THE unicorn, we'd need 10 WAR from him the next two seasons.

Again, I'm not necessarily opposed to adding him, but just not at that price.  Just imho, I'm in the camp of acquiring a 1-2 year type of player.  I think some of the guys mention, Arraez, Steer, Ward, Adell, can supply a lot of value without a lot of l/t costs.

I can write off the last year of the contract and have him sit home. Just give me 4 years of valuable production TBH. Not every middle aged SS (is he a 2b now) can do that.

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Not many good bats get moved at the deadline. It's not so easy to find one, especially with expanded playoffs.

Especially this year where, because of the league being so weak there are so many teams being mathematically in reach come TDL time. 

[notin]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That doesn't necessarily make his contract worth it! 

The 15th SS from 22-25 only had 7.6 fWAR. That's not worth 32 AAV!

Ok.

But he was an 8fWAR shortstop last year, and I believe he will be worth at least 15 fWAR over the next 5 years.  It doesn’t even feel like a stretch…

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Ok.

But he was an 8fWAR shortstop last year, and I believe he will be worth at least 15 fWAR over the next 5 years.  It doesn’t even feel like a stretch…

He's 32. His speed is down. His arm strength is down. A lot of his value is tied into his defense and that is going in the wrong direction. Now that he's also struggling with the bat, his numbers will fall off the table. Being a switch hitter at Fenway (with a pull approach for a LHB) wouldn't help him either. 

3 years for Lindor? Go for it. 5? It's a lot...

[notin]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Not many good bats get moved at the deadline. It's not so easy to find one, especially with expanded playoffs.

Especially with so few teams definitely out.  Thsts why I think the Angels, Royals, Reds, Rockies and Athletics are the only definite sellers.  (And historically the Rockies just sit this stuff out.)

Washington, Detroit, and San Diego are sitting on the fence.  Maybe Arizona, Baltimore and Toronto as well…

[notin]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's 32. His speed is down. His arm strength is down. A lot of his value is tied into his defense and that is going in the wrong direction. Now that he's also struggling with the bat, his numbers will fall off the table. Being a switch hitter at Fenway (with a pull approach for a LHB) wouldn't help him either. 

3 years for Lindor? Go for it. 5? It's a lot...

Fair.  His remaining production will definitely be front-loaded…

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

Ok.

But he was an 8fWAR shortstop last year, and I believe he will be worth at least 15 fWAR over the next 5 years.  It doesn’t even feel like a stretch…

S T R E T C H.🙈