Spring Training Game Thread for Week of March 8th

[Duran Is The Man]

35 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The extension was 5 games into his career.

whatever....it was still dumb as hell.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

whatever....it was still dumb as hell.

It was why he was on he Opening Day roster to begin with and why Roman/Mayer were in AAA.

[mvp 78]

 

[moonslav59]

These are often gambles. You hit and miss.

If KC won rookie of the year, we'd be calling the signing "genius."

[mvp 78]

Braden Ward among Sox players over 14 AB's:

448 AVG #1 

543 OBP #1

16 SB #1

13 H #1

10 R #1

His OPS is 3rd (1026) behind Gasper and Monasterio. Ward definitely wins the ST "let's talk about this rando guy" award. 

 

[Kimmi]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Don't get sad over a 10 game sample size, especially the first 10 games after a long winter off.

Good point.  Thanks for pulling me back into reaility.

[Kimmi]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I think we're sad about the 100 games before that bleeding into this season. 

I just want him to do well.  He started off so good that we posted comments about how he looked like he belonged and how he didn't seem to get bothered by whatever the situation.  And then, it quickly turned south.

Also, 16 more days!

[Kimmi]

5 hours ago, notin said:

Clearly not into good ones, since I thought I was making one with my post…

It took me a while on both yours and 5GoldGloves post.  But at least I got it this time.  I usually don't get the references made here.  LOL

[Duran Is The Man]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Braden Ward among Sox players over 14 AB's:

448 AVG #1 

543 OBP #1

16 SB #1

13 H #1

10 R #1

His OPS is 3rd (1026) behind Gasper and Monasterio. Ward definitely wins the ST "let's talk about this rando guy" award. 

 

the 16 stolen bases is what's really crazy to me.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

11 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

the 16 stolen bases is what's really crazy to me.

I just like the idea of a fast guy who can bunt that pressures the defense to make a perfect throw lest he circle the bases.

But all the deceiving Red Sox WBC HR production has hurt Ward's chances of breaking camp in a small ball world.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I just like the idea of a fast guy who can bunt that pressures the defense to make a perfect throw lest he circle the bases.

But all the deceiving Red Sox WBC HR production has hurt Ward's chances of breaking camp in a small ball world.

His MiLB contract is what hurts his chances the most. 

[notin]

20 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Braden Ward among Sox players over 14 AB's:

448 AVG #1 

543 OBP #1

16 SB #1

13 H #1

10 R #1

His OPS is 3rd (1026) behind Gasper and Monasterio. Ward definitely wins the ST "let's talk about this rando guy" award. 

 

And this year’s winner of The Pedro Ciriaco Award, formerly known as The Jeff Bailey Award..

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

And this year’s winner of The Pedro Ciriaco Award, formerly known as The Jeff Bailey Award..

I think this guy has a better chance at sticking around.

We did trade Bernardino for him, so I have to think they thought highly of him, before seeing these results.

 

[moonslav59]

23 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

whatever....it was still dumb as hell.

Well, some felt the Rafaela & Bello signings were "premature" or dumb, too.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

And this year’s winner of The Pedro Ciriaco Award, formerly known as The Jeff Bailey Award..

Yairo Munoz held the award at some point. 

[mvp 78]

34 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Well, some felt the Rafaela & Bello signings were "premature" or dumb, too.

Still kinda are. I don't think either guy would get more in ARB + FA than what their extensions are giving them. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Still kinda are. I don't think either guy would get more in ARB + FA than what their extensions are giving them. 

I disagree.

BTV does, too:

Rafaela worth 94, paid 58 & net +$36

Bello worth 78, paid 51 & net +$27

fangraphs says Rafaela already produced a $40M value. Bello: $54M. Yes, these were pre-arb values, but their paydays would be determined by their production levels during arbs years.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I disagree.

BTV does, too:

Rafaela worth 94, paid 58 & net +$36

Bello worth 78, paid 51 & net +$27

fangraphs says Rafaela already produced a $40M value. Bello: $54M. Yes, these were pre-arb values, but their paydays would be determined by their production levels during arbs years.

The Sox would have paid them less via ARB and FA than these extensions. The extensions vs fWAR argument just shows that they would net LESS value. Meaningless. It's not even a counterpoint to say "well the extensions were worth it." 

They've been fine players, but neither of these guys are going to break the bank after their ARB terms are up. The only value in extensions is adding the additional years. Bello could get 2/40 after his ARB is up. Is that drastically cheaper than his FA value? Rafaela is getting 3/40. Is a glove first guy getting more than that? 

[Kimmi]

On 3/10/2026 at 1:08 PM, Duran Is The Man said:

whatever....it was still dumb as hell.

There's still a long way to go on that contract.  I'm glad the Sox locked him up.  There's always a risk, but IMO, the potential reward is greater.

[Kimmi]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Still kinda are. I don't think either guy would get more in ARB + FA than what their extensions are giving them. 

IMO, very good extensions.  Both of them.

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The Sox would have paid them less via ARB and FA than these extensions. The extensions vs fWAR argument just shows that they would net LESS value. Meaningless. It's not even a counterpoint to say "well the extensions were worth it." 

They've been fine players, but neither of these guys are going to break the bank after their ARB terms are up. The only value in extensions is adding the additional years. Bello could get 2/40 after his ARB is up. Is that drastically cheaper than his FA value? Rafaela is getting 3/40. Is a glove first guy getting more than that? 

Agreed. The contracts are not underwater, and thats what the positive BTV represents.

But its not like either player would have negative value if they were still on pre-arb or in their arb deals (if extension never happened).  I use to think that Cedannes contract would turn negative eventually, but Im loving what Im seeing from him this spring.

Bello is currently blocking a better pitcher from making the rotation and should get the MVP (MoVed for Prospects)

[vegasbob]

On 3/10/2026 at 11:09 AM, moonslav59 said:

These are often gambles. You hit and miss.

If KC won rookie of the year, we'd be calling the signing "genius."

And if the Red Sox won last year's WS, we would be calling them  5 time Champions of the 21st century

Deal with reality. KC';s extension was unnecessary and a real mistake. He is either physically incapable or maybe it's mental.   In either case he is seriously rich and does not have to produce.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The Sox would have paid them less via ARB and FA than these extensions. The extensions vs fWAR argument just shows that they would net LESS value. Meaningless. It's not even a counterpoint to say "well the extensions were worth it." 

They've been fine players, but neither of these guys are going to break the bank after their ARB terms are up. The only value in extensions is adding the additional years. Bello could get 2/40 after his ARB is up. Is that drastically cheaper than his FA value? Rafaela is getting 3/40. Is a glove first guy getting more than that? 

What does Rafaela have to do? At age 24, he put up a 3.4 fWAR.

He'd get a hefty contract as a FA, unless he falls off a cliff before his control years would have ended. As of now, it looks like we'll be saving money.

If people can jump against the KC early signing, then this one should look good.

Bello has put up a 3.9 fWAR since 2024, when his extension kicked in. He got paid $3.5M. Of course the post control years and contracts are what makes the difference, but Bello is owed:

$6M this year

$8.5M in '27 (last arb year?)

$16M in '28

$19M in '29

there is a team option for $21M in 2030 with a $1M buyout.

You don't think Bello would get a $35M/2 deal after 2027? Have you seen what lesser pitchers are getting? He'll turn 30 for his option season (year 3.)

 

[moonslav59]

58 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Agreed. The contracts are not underwater, and thats what the positive BTV represents.

But its not like either player would have negative value if they were still on pre-arb or in their arb deals (if extension never happened).  I use to think that Cedannes contract would turn negative eventually, but Im loving what Im seeing from him this spring.

Bello is currently blocking a better pitcher from making the rotation and should get the MVP (MoVed for Prospects)

BTV has Campbell at negative $1.2M, so he can easily get this to plus, with some sign of life.

Anthony is +$62M.

Yes, BTV shows if the contracts are underwater or not, but of course there is context needed, as arb players that are good will always be a plus. It's more about what we get after the control would have run out, and how much more we paid than the arbs would have been (an estimate.)

[Duran Is The Man]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Well, some felt the Rafaela & Bello signings were "premature" or dumb, too.

to each his own, but his production (or lack thereof) tells me it was dumb. IMHO, they should have waited just a bit longer.

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

to each his own, but his production (or lack thereof) tells me it was dumb. IMHO, they should have waited just a bit longer.

I'm not defending it, and it does look "dumb," so far, but it's a gamble that will likely not work everytime.

I'm still optimistic on KC, but certainly my doubts are high, too.

[UtahSox]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Well, some felt the Rafaela & Bello signings were "premature" or dumb, too.

Still do. And arguing that “you win some you lose some” on KC is ridiculous there was no reason to do it. Even Roman might have come a little too early. This is an AAV strapped team. Ergo anytime we hit on a young player and immediately pay them to obtain 1 or 2 extra years of control is the epitome of stupidity.

Who knows who we could have signed if Bello, Rafaela, Anthony and Campbell were still on arb contracts. It’s a great way to fake spend cash now when Sam Kennedy steps up to a microphone twice a year. 

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Agreed. The contracts are not underwater, and thats what the positive BTV represents.

But its not like either player would have negative value if they were still on pre-arb or in their arb deals (if extension never happened).  I use to think that Cedannes contract would turn negative eventually, but Im loving what Im seeing from him this spring.

Bello is currently blocking a better pitcher from making the rotation and should get the MVP (MoVed for Prospects)

Bello would also have a lot more trade value if he didn't have the extension.

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

$8.5M in '27 (last arb year?)

$16M in '28

$19M in '29

there is a team option for $21M in 2030 with a $1M buyout.

You don't think Bello would get a $35M/2 deal after 2027? Have you seen what lesser pitchers are getting? He'll turn 30 for his option season (year 3.)

 

His last ARB year is the 16M in '28, not your listed 8.5. His 20 AAV in '29 and club option '30 is about the FA value he'd get IMO. 

[mvp 78]

KC demoted from leading off.