Boston Red Sox 2026 Win Total

[Michigan Adam2]

14 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Schwarber or Alonso plus Suarez AND Gray was the proper way to create a competitive team. 

And how would you have played all.  To pay for them all they would have traded several players, probably including crochet. The people who just say overpay to get this player or that, then complain when you are stuck with players like panda and masa that can't be traded. You can't have it both ways. I like the Sox efforts so far this off-season. I think they still need 1cmore offensive player via trade, but they can probably wait until closer to the deadline to confirm what/where they need the help, and which other teams are out if it or have surplus/ needs that match up with the sox.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

26 minutes ago, Michigan Adam2 said:

 I think they still need 1cmore offensive player via trade, but they can probably wait until closer to the deadline to confirm what/where they need the help, and which other teams are out if it or have surplus/ needs that match up with the sox.

The only reason that might be dubious is because this entire decade, the Red Sox NEVER upgrade needs at the trade deadline.

It happens every summer: the media gossips about all the names on all the teams out of contention, and all the players on expiring contracts -- or guys those poor clubs are desperate to dump -- and then Sox fans get their hopes up... and even entertain the possibilities by mulling all the BTV trade proposals on talksox.

Then in the last seconds before the deadline, a CBO from Yale lands a past-his-prime middle reliever that nobody else wanted.

And before you can say Kyle Schwarber, remember he was one position player who really couldn't play any positions -- or even hit at the time because of an injury -- that Bloom added with nothing to lose to an offense that already had a good DH... (though not one like Schwarbs who'd average 47 home runs every year since being allowed to sign elsewhere, a pace that will easily put him over 500 career HRs by the time he's 36).

 

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, harmony said:

Ain't it the truth.

For three straight seasons the Seattle Mariners won more regular season games than the National League champions, meaning the Mariners drafted behind reigning NL champs Atlanta Braves in 2022, Philadelphia Phillies in 2023 and Arizona Diamondbacks in 2024.

This isn't true though. 

'23 Mariners pick #22, Philly pick #27, Mariners pick #29 (promotion incentive pick)

'24 Mariners pick #15, AZ pick #29

1 out 3 ain't bad I guess. 🫠

[notin]

11 hours ago, FredLynn said:

You missed the point. It’s not who we got that bothers me. It’s that we got dregs instead of talented players. The dregs now occupy a roster spot that a much better player should occupy.

Gasper isn’t going to make the 26 man roster and might not stay on the 40 man very long.  You really can’t (or maybe I should say “shouldn’t “) equate the top 26 roster spots to the final 14, especially since Gasper has an ability Schwarber and Alonso don’t - the ability to be demoted to AAA.  Because that is vital for those last 14 roster spots…

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Gasper isn’t going to make the 26 man roster and might not stay on the 40 man very long.  You really can’t (or maybe I should say “shouldn’t “) equate the top 26 roster spots to the final 14, especially since Gasper has an ability Schwarber and Alonso don’t - the ability to be demoted to AAA.  Because that is vital for those last 14 roster spots…

They probably try to sneak him through waivers at the end of ST and replace his 40 man slot with a DFA'd reliever.

[Hugh2]

11 hours ago, FredLynn said:

You missed the point. It’s not who we got that bothers me. It’s that we got dregs instead of talented players. The dregs now occupy a roster spot that a much better player should occupy.

who are these "dregs" that you speak of?

[Hugh2]

18 90 win teams have missed the playoffs since the wild card was introduced. 

210 90 win plus eams have existed since then. 

So, if you win 90 games you have a 91.5% chance of making the playoffs BUT WAIT! hasn't the wildcard expanded? Yes it has so intuitively the odds of making the playoffs with 90 wins is much higher than 91%

 

[Hugh2]

14 hours ago, harmony said:

In 2021 the Toronto Blue Jays missed the postseason despite winning 91 games in the regular season.

The 2021 Seattle Mariners, with 90 wins, would have missed the postseason under the current format.

Why are you the way you are?

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Why are you the way you are?

I'm going to start mainlining more Marlins games this year and you're all going to be in trouble. 

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Your criticisms have no weight because you have admitted many times that our cheapskate owner should be spending more. 
As in signing talented FAs like Alonso or Schwarber. When was the last time Henry opened his wallet and agreed to sign a high priced FA? You know-top talent. 
Thats my point. 

I do think he should spend more. I think all owners should. I don't call him cheap, because he has been far from cheap. You may think that carries "no weight," but it does.

That last time, he opened his wallet for top talent? Just weeks ago.

This winter:

$28M Crochet

$26M Suarez

$21M Gray

$18M Contreras

$6M Kiner -Falefa

How many teams spent this much in "new spending," this year. Look it up, and get back to me with an answer to this specific question. No tangent to spending vs revenue.

New spending in 2025:

$32M Bregman ($40M in reality)

$21M Buehler

$11M Chapman

$9M Sandoval

$2M Wilson

2024: (I admit, this was not enough for 2024, but it marked the start of some changes in spending patters.)

$29M x 10 Devers

$18M x 2 Giolito

$5M x 2 Hendriks

No. It's not enough. No the world is not all black and white, where you either spend like the Mets & Dodgers or you are a "lying cheapskates who doesn't want to win." That statement is what carries no weight..

 

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Your criticisms have no weight because you have admitted many times that our cheapskate owner should be spending more. 
As in signing talented FAs like Alonso or Schwarber. When was the last time Henry opened his wallet and agreed to sign a high priced FA? You know-top talent. 
Thats my point. 

So, Alonso and no Contreras and Kiner-Falefa= ring competition.

Contreras + Kiner-Falefa and no Alonso = 4th place.

The spending is pretty close, but JH is a lying cheapskates owner over this.

 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So, Alonso and no Contreras and Kiner-Falefa= ring competition.

Contreras + Kiner-Falefa and no Alonso = 4th place.

The spending is pretty close, but JH is a lying cheapskates owner over this.

 

fWAR since '23

Contreras 8.3

Alonso 8.5

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The only reason that might be dubious is because this entire decade, the Red Sox NEVER upgrade needs at the trade deadline.

It happens every summer: the media gossips about all the names on all the teams out of contention, and all the players on expiring contracts -- or guys those poor clubs are desperate to dump -- and then Sox fans get their hopes up... and even entertain the possibilities by mulling all the BTV trade proposals on talksox.

Then in the last seconds before the deadline, a CBO from Yale lands a past-his-prime middle reliever that nobody else wanted.

And before you can say Kyle Schwarber, remember he was one position player who really couldn't play any positions -- or even hit at the time because of an injury -- that Bloom added with nothing to lose to an offense that already had a good DH... (though not one like Schwarbs who'd average 47 home runs every year since being allowed to sign elsewhere, a pace that will easily put him over 500 career HRs by the time he's 36).

 

We needed a bat and Schwarber filled that need and played some positions, other than DH.

2018 was within a decade: We might now win without Nate and Pearce. (Kinsler helped, too.)

2017: We added Nunez and Reed at the deadline- both promised to fill big needs.

That was pretty long ago, and had you said 7 years, you'd be right.

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

fWAR since '23

Contreras 8.3

Alonso 8.5

Talk about carrying "no weight."

Possible ring with Alonso.

4th place "flops" with Contreras + Kiner Falefa.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We needed a bat and Schwarber filled that need and played some positions, other than DH.

2018 was within a decade: We might now win without Nate and Pearce. (Kinsler helped, too.)

2017: We added Nunez and Reed at the deadline- both promised to fill big needs.

That was pretty long ago, and had you said 7 years, you'd be right.

This decade -- the 2020s. 

I think you know how I felt about Dave Dombrowski compared to Boston CBOs this decade.

Dombro publicly acknowledged needs for the Red Sox, then went out and got guys to fill them. Some were great and some flopped, but at least fans knew they could trust him.

[drewski6]

7 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Your criticisms have no weight because you have admitted many times that our cheapskate owner should be spending more. 
 

Well, way to punish the guy for validating ur opinion. U can be a hard guy to even agree with.

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

18 90 win teams have missed the playoffs since the wild card was introduced. 

210 90 win plus eams have existed since then. 

So, if you win 90 games you have a 91.5% chance of making the playoffs BUT WAIT! hasn't the wildcard expanded? Yes it has so intuitively the odds of making the playoffs with 90 wins is much higher than 91%

 

Most of the "misses" came when there was one WC team and the play-in game format.

Now, that so many teams make the dance, it is very rare to see an 88, 89 or 90 win team miss the playoffs.

In many seasons 83-86 wins are enough.

[drewski6]

43 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

18 90 win teams have missed the playoffs since the wild card was introduced. 

210 90 win plus eams have existed since then. 

So, if you win 90 games you have a 91.5% chance of making the playoffs BUT WAIT! hasn't the wildcard expanded? Yes it has so intuitively the odds of making the playoffs with 90 wins is much higher than 91%

 

Yes

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

This decade -- the 2020s. 

I think you know how I felt about Dave Dombrowski compared to Boston CBOs this decade.

 

Ok. Fair enough.

Even if you count Schwarber, it's still sickening to see the lack of effort.

(I will add that in several seasons, I wanted us to sell, and that only happened in 2020- we got Pivetta.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Ok. Fair enough.

Even if you count Schwarber, it's still sickening to see the lack of effort.

It's hard to look back on that 2021 team five years ago and see an offense that already had three legitimate All-Star Silver Sluggers -- Devers, Bogaerts and JD -- plus Renfroe 31 HRs, Dalbec 25 HRs and Verdugo 20 HRs (all borderline .800 OPS guys)... and then they added Kyle Schwarber.

Looking at this year's powerhouse, maybe it's more understandable why adding Schwarber now wouldn't make that much difference...

[drewski6]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Talk about carrying "no weight."

Possible ring with Alonso.

4th place "flops" with Contreras + Kiner Falefa.

I dont think it carries 0 weight.  What he is saying, is that hes sick of all the falling back to options B,C,D,E.  The lineup as it is currently constructed was not plan A,B,C,D,E

I personally believe that Fred (who I like) is overestimating how much financial pressures from ownership are contributing to that.  But I also feel like some other posters (not you) overestimate how much the falling back is a choice , and then they applaud it.  

It reminds me of a deadline a couple years ago. Im a homer but I have 2 friends that are more homer than I.  And one deadline a few years ago my buddy was like "Im so glad no deadline moves. Because I really like this team. Bloom like me, just really really really loves this team". 

Meanwhile Bloom was on TV and was like "Vegas gives us about a 25% chance to make playoffs, team aint worth short term investments" ...And Im thinking thats like the exact opposite of what my friend is telling me.  Bloom is essentially saying the team is too bad to add to (in the short term). And my friend, expectedly, goes into the whole "some people shouldnt open their mouth. Why say that."

And Im thinking: " You just want to be happy withy what you got, you want to lie to yourself that this team was built to win, and management is not telling you what you want to hear, and I find the statements refreshingly honest."

I never had an issue with Blooms communication style.  I did have issues with his (lack of) aggression and complacency to roll a mediocre roster over year over year.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

It's hard to look back on that 2021 team five years ago and see an offense that already had three legitimate All-Star Silver Sluggers -- Devers, Bogaerts and JD -- plus Renfroe 31 HRs, Dalbec 25 HRs and Verdugo 20 HRs (all borderline .800 OPS guys)... and then they added Kyle Schwarber.

Looking at this year's powerhouse, maybe it's more understandable why adding Schwarber now wouldn't make that much difference...

The year before, no Red Sox hit 20 HR. Quite the turnaround! 😎

[FredLynn]

50 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I do think he should spend more. I think all owners should. I don't call him cheap, because he has been far from cheap. You may think that carries "no weight," but it does.

That last time, he opened his wallet for top talent? Just weeks ago.

This winter:

$28M Crochet

$26M Suarez

$21M Gray

$18M Contreras

$6M Kiner -Falefa

How many teams spent this much in "new spending," this year. Look it up, and get back to me with an answer to this specific question. No tangent to spending vs revenue.

New spending in 2025:

$32M Bregman ($40M in reality)

$21M Buehler

$11M Chapman

$9M Sandoval

$2M Wilson

2024: (I admit, this was not enough for 2024, but it marked the start of some changes in spending patters.)

$29M x 10 Devers

$18M x 2 Giolito

$5M x 2 Hendriks

No. It's not enough. No the world is not all black and white, where you either spend like the Mets & Dodgers or you are a "lying cheapskates who doesn't want to win." That statement is what carries no weight..

 

I’m not referring to extending players or obtaining players by giving up some of our own players. It’s rare that Henry opens up his wallet to pay for top shelf FAs. Who did they get last year when they said they were going “full throttle”? Dregs. And instead of making competitive offers to Schwarber, Alonso-or even Bregman they got lower tier FAs or dregs. And they remain far below average in percentage of revenue spent on upgrading player salaries. That’s telling. There is no real commitment to winning no matter what Henry says. He lies. There is a priority to maximize profits as the expense of winning. Thats fine-it’s his “ball”-but he does owe us honesty. I have an intense dislike for liars. You know as well as everyone here knows what we needed to compete for a ring. That talent was out there and AGAIN this year Henry was too cheap to get it. 

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I dont think it carries 0 weight.  What he is saying, is that hes sick of all the falling back to options B,C,D,E.  The lineup as it is currently constructed was not plan A,B,C,D,E

I personally believe that Fred (who I like) is overestimating how much financial pressures from ownership are contributing to that.  

None of us on here truly know what the budget is supposed to be. Without that, it's hard to really project what the offseason should have been. 

I'm fine with passing on Schwarber (LHB). If Alonso was a passable 1B, I think they would have signed him. Aside from those two, was there someone they really missed out on? I didn't want Bregman last year for 5 years and certainly not 6. No other team in MLB wanted Suarez to play 3B. It was an imperfect FA class. 

I like the Contreras move. I like the Gray move. 

We'll have to see how Suarez does over 5 years. I'm hopeful about Durbin, but he was definitely not in their original plans whatever they were. I'd rather Suarez and Durbin than Bregman's 5 year contract.  

The one big complaint I have is them not dealing either one of the 4 OFers or eating Masa's contract. Just rip the bandaid off. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The year before, no Red Sox hit 20 HR. Quite the turnaround! 😎

In 2020, no one wanted to knock over the cardboard fans in the stands.

Now look at 2019. The Red Sox hit 245 home runs and were only 10th in the majors. Two clubs hit over 300 HRs. Eight Red Sox hit 18 or more homers, including Vasquez with 23 and Bradley with 21. Mookie was 4th on the club with 29.

(I'm not saying the players were juiced in '19, but then the baseballs definitely were).

One 2026 site predicts three Red Sox to hit 18 HRs and lead the team this year.

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

It's hard to look back on that 2021 team five years ago and see an offense that already had three legitimate All-Star Silver Sluggers -- Devers, Bogaerts and JD -- plus Renfroe 31 HRs, Dalbec 25 HRs and Verdugo 20 HRs (all borderline .800 OPS guys)... and then they added Kyle Schwarber.

Looking at this year's powerhouse, maybe it's more understandable why adding Schwarber now wouldn't make that much difference...

We needed a boost. A pitcher might have been better, 

We did have 3 batters over .890 at the deadline (Devers, Bogey & JD,) but Renfroe was at .767 and Verdugo at .749.

You mentioned Dalbec, like he was some kind of plus in the first 4 months of 2021. He was at .659 at the deadline. Vaz was at .649. Marwin and Santana were below .600. Kike, Plawecki & Arroyo were doing fine, but we needed to knock out one of our black holes in the line-up and Schwarber was a nice get, even without hindsight.

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I’m not referring to extending players or obtaining players by giving up some of our own players. 

Of course you are not. It doesn't fit your off-base narrative.

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

 And instead of making competitive offers to Schwarber, Alonso-or even Bregman they got lower tier FAs or dregs. 

Suarez got about the same as Bregman.

I'd rather have $21M Gray + $18M Contreras than $35M Alonso, despite my call for quality over quantity.

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

None of us on here truly know what the budget is supposed to be. Without that, it's hard to really project what the offseason should have been. 

I'm fine with passing on Schwarber (LHB). If Alonso was a passable 1B, I think they would have signed him. Aside from those two, was there someone they really missed out on? I didn't want Bregman last year for 5 years and certainly not 6. No other team in MLB wanted Suarez to play 3B. It was an imperfect FA class. 

I like the Contreras move. I like the Gray move. 

We'll have to see how Suarez does over 5 years. I'm hopeful about Durbin, but he was definitely not in their original plans whatever they were. I'd rather Suarez and Durbin than Bregman's 5 year contract.  

The one big complaint I have is them not dealing either one of the 4 OFers or eating Masa's contract. Just rip the bandaid off. 

Exactly. We really don't need a $35M DH posing as a 1Bman.

We did need his bat, and I wanted him, but I'd prefer Contreras at his cost.

I prefer Suarez over Bregman.

I will say, I wish we got a 2B/3Bman, even if it meant no Sonny Gray & Kiner-Falefa, but there is more than one way to win.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You mentioned Dalbec, like he was some kind of plus 

I mentioned Dalbec because he hit 25 home runs -- the same amount that Story led the team with last year -- and because Dalbec was 4th on a team that then went and added Schwarber.

ps. and if fans recall, the reason Boston almost went to the World Series in '21 is because the offense went berserk in the postseason... until it suddenly went cold with two wins to go.