Red Sox sign Ranger Suarez. 5 years $130 Million

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Steamer projections now have the Sox with the #1 pitching staff in baseball, hitting not as good but they're still 7th overall. 

If Steamer projections came to fruition with 100% accuracy the Sox would be the 7th best team in all of baseball next year. 

The bad news is, there are 2 teams in the A.L. East still in front of them.  If they make an honest move for an IF they will probably jump above the Yankees and slide in at 3 behind Toronto & LA

I'm pretty sure the Yanks will add a big plus player, too, and one never knows with TOR.

[Hugh2]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm pretty sure the Yanks will add a big plus player, too, and one never knows with TOR.

I think Toronto is done, but the Yankees might add Bellinger

[moonslav59]

39 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I think Toronto is done, but the Yankees might add Bellinger

Probably right on TOR, but TOR is up on us by 2.4. Paredes is 2.3.

The Yanks are up 1.9 and may add someone else, if they miss out on Bellinger. (Word is they are shopping Chisholm 3.5, so...)

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Probably right on TOR, but TOR is up on us by 2.4. Paredes is 2.3.

The Yanks are up 1.9 and may add someone else, if they miss out on Bellinger. (Word is they are shopping Chisholm 3.5, so...)

So we are going to remain #3 in league projection.  I still feel a lot better about this team and our chances in 2026 with Paredes. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Steamer projections now have the Sox with the #1 pitching staff in baseball, hitting not as good but they're still 7th overall. 

Only a half dozen clubs in the big leagues have a better offense than Anthony getting on base, a few guys stealing, and a few others hitting 20 homers? 

Twenty MLB batting orders can't do better than that? Really?

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

So we are going to remain #3 in league projection.  I still feel a lot better about this team and our chances in 2026 with Paredes. 

If we can add Paredes and keep Duran and Bello, I'd say we are close enough to be even with TOR and NYY and a top 5 team in MLB. I'm not sure that can be done, unless some third team gets pulled in, and we part with a top 5 prospect or two from #3-10.

I've heard down here that HOU really wants Abreu back.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I've heard down here that HOU really wants Abreu back.

I prefer to keep Abreu, but starting Anthony in RF is still a very good fit.

[UtahSox]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I prefer to keep Abreu, but starting Anthony in RF is still a very good fit.

 

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

If we can add Paredes and keep Duran and Bello, I'd say we are close enough to be even with TOR and NYY and a top 5 team in MLB. I'm not sure that can be done, unless some third team gets pulled in, and we part with a top 5 prospect or two from #3-10.

I've heard down here that HOU really wants Abreu back.

Who else is big league ready on Astros? that could make us better if they insist on Wilyer?

or can we get off Hicks? Free up cash to sign a free Agent?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, UtahSox said:

 

Who else is big league ready on Astros? that could make us better if they insist on Wilyer?

or can we get off Hicks? Free up cash to sign a free Agent?

I keep mentioning King and Sousa, their two LH'd RP'ers but would take 1 year of Abreu, instead, if they insisted.

[moonslav59]

The Suarez contract was revealed:

Suárez’s contract is reportedly backloaded in significant fashion, paying him just a $3MM signing bonus and $7MM salary in 2026. He’ll earn $15MM in 2027 before his salary doubles to $30MM in each of the next two years (2028-29). Suárez will be paid $35MM in 2030 and is also guaranteed a $10MM buyout on that mutual option, which is valued at $35MM. Mutual options are never exercised by both parties, so the inclusion of one in this deal is little more than a mechanism to further backload the contract.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Suarez contract was revealed:

Suárez’s contract is reportedly backloaded in significant fashion, paying him just a $3MM signing bonus and $7MM salary in 2026. He’ll earn $15MM in 2027 before his salary doubles to $30MM in each of the next two years (2028-29). Suárez will be paid $35MM in 2030 and is also guaranteed a $10MM buyout on that mutual option, which is valued at $35MM. Mutual options are never exercised by both parties, so the inclusion of one in this deal is little more than a mechanism to further backload the contract.

A good deal for Ranger no doubt, but as I asked before was this the right pitcher to go 5  years on for that money? The Mets from what I can tell have deferred $70M on Bregman, and it appears the Red Sox wanted to defer even more money than that for Bregman' but yet they offered Ranger more PDV.🤔

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

A good deal for Ranger no doubt, but as I asked before was this the right pitcher to go 5  years on for that money? The Mets from what I can tell have deferred $70M on Bregman, and it appears the Red Sox wanted to defer even more money than that for Bregman' but yet they offered Ranger more PDV.🤔

This day and age, it's a roll of the dice with almost any pitcher. Since Suarez isn't a high velo guy, maybe he's a better bet to age well? 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

A good deal for Ranger no doubt, but as I asked before was this the right pitcher to go 5  years on for that money? The Mets from what I can tell have deferred $70M on Bregman, and it appears the Red Sox wanted to defer even more money than that for Bregman' but yet they offered Ranger more PDV.🤔

I really like Suarez, but I ask the same question, and I lean towards a no.

I was not high on Cease and he got 7 years! NOPE!

I did not want Gallen, at all.

The issue with Framber and his catcher in HOU, this year, made him a no. Maybe that issue is why he remains unsigned.

Imai got 6 years at $150M, but he would certainly not be "the guy," to me.

It's not like this had to be the year we signed a SP'er, but I do think Ranger looks like the best of this crop. Whatever that is worth.

Michael King at $75M/3 was less of a money gamble, but still a big gamble overall. Bassitt or M Kelly on short deals?

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

This day and age, it's a roll of the dice with almost any pitcher. Since Suarez isn't a high velo guy, maybe he's a better bet to age well? 

He doesn't seem to fit the Brez prototype, but IMO, it's a good thing to have a variety of pitching approaches on your rotation. Keep the opps off balanced.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

This day and age, it's a roll of the dice with almost any pitcher. Since Suarez isn't a high velo guy, maybe he's a better bet to age well? 

You could be right on that, and only time will tell. Ranger to me was just a fallback for not signing the PLAN A Bregman. BorASS did say the deal for Ranger came together pretty quickly after the Sox lost out on Bregman.

[moonslav59]

Just now, Old Red said:

You could be right on that, and only time will tell. Ranger to me was just a fallback for not signing the PLAN A Bregman. BorASS did say the deal for Ranger came together pretty quickly after the Sox lost out on Bregman.

I think they had the Suarez deal in place as a plan B. I'm not so sure it "came together quickly" as in we quickly negotiated the deal after Breggie bolted. Not that it matters.

It does look like we've been flying by the seat of our pants. We started the offseason saying we needed a big bat and one SP'er who could be the #2.

We added 3 SP'ers- a #2 (Suarez), maybe a #2-3 (Gray) and a #5-6 Oviedo. We certainly met the goal of adding a #2- one more predictable than Buehler was, and Gio, too.

We added a decent bat (Contreras) but not the "big bat" we hoped for.

In hindsight, maybe we could have used the trade capital from the S Gray and Oviedo trades to help land that big(ger) bat.

[Old Red]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think they had the Suarez deal in place as a plan B. I'm not so sure it "came together quickly" as in we quickly negotiated the deal after Breggie bolted. Not that it matters.

It does look like we've been flying by the seat of our pants. We started the offseason saying we needed a big bat and one SP'er who could be the #2.

We added 3 SP'ers- a #2 (Suarez), maybe a #2-3 (Gray) and a #5-6 Oviedo. We certainly met the goal of adding a #2- one more predictable than Buehler was, and Gio, too.

We added a decent bat (Contreras) but not the "big bat" we hoped for.

In hindsight, maybe we could have used the trade capital from the S Gray and Oviedo trades to help land that big(ger) bat.

Yes most likely the Sox had previously had discussions on Ranger, but I’m still puzzled that by all accounts Bregman was the Red Sox top priority this offseason why they gave Ranger more PDV than what they offered Bregman.

[notin]

4 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I think Toronto is done, but the Yankees might add Bellinger

Toronto might get in on Bellinger at some point.  

[drewski6]

5 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Steamer projections now have the Sox with the #1 pitching staff in baseball, hitting not as good but they're still 7th overall. 

If Steamer projections came to fruition with 100% accuracy the Sox would be the 7th best team in all of baseball next year. 

The bad news is, there are 2 teams in the A.L. East still in front of them.  If they make an honest move for an IF they will probably jump above the Yankees and slide in at 3 behind Toronto & LA

According to projected wRC+:

we have - RA #38 in mlb
Contreras - 80 in mlb
Abreu - 90 im mlb
Duran - 149 in mlb.

Paredes is 31 in MLB.

U-G-L-Y

ANd I dont care how good the pitching and defense is - wihtout Paredes this team is unwatchable and it is NOT a serious contender.

Paredes helps a lot, as he'd be the best bat on the team, but its still not great with Paredes.

But yeah, we need him, right now, or really any top 30 bat.  Id take a top 30 hitter who plays outfield.  And I dont care.

We are desperate for bats.

[notin]

19 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Yes most likely the Sox had previously had discussions on Ranger, but I’m still puzzled that by all accounts Bregman was the Red Sox top priority this offseason why they gave Ranger more PDV than what they offered Bregman.

Maybe because Suarez is entering his age 30 season coming off 4.7 bWAR/4.0 fWAR, while Bregman is entering his age 32 season coming of 3.5 bWAR/3.5 fWAR?

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

According to projected wRC+:

we have - RA #38 in mlb
Contreras - 80 in mlb
Abreu - 90 im mlb
Duran - 149 in mlb.

Paredes is 31 in MLB.

U-G-L-Y

ANd I dont care how good the pitching and defense is - wihtout Paredes this team is unwatchable and it is NOT a serious contender.

Paredes helps a lot, as he'd be the best bat on the team, but its still not great with Paredes.

But yeah, we need him, right now, or really any top 30 bat.  Id take a top 30 hitter who plays outfield.  And I dont care.

We are desperate for bats.

Now do the other 29 teams, Sox offense is not good but there's a lot of s***** offenses out there. 

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

Now do the other 29 teams, Sox offense is not good but there's a lot of s***** offenses out there. 

Understood, but I dont care.

THere are three types of teams in mLb

Teams with a top 3 offense
Teams that are trying to improve their offense
Jokes

[moonslav59]

38 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Yes most likely the Sox had previously had discussions on Ranger, but I’m still puzzled that by all accounts Bregman was the Red Sox top priority this offseason why they gave Ranger more PDV than what they offered Bregman.

Maybe they misjudged the idea that Breggie was going to sign with the Cubs, unless the Sox adjusted their offer. Maybe they just held firm on the no trade clause.

I'm not sure which one is worth, but both are wrong.

There is a chance they viewed Suarez as about the same as Bregman and just decided signing Suarez with out the no trade clause was a better fit.

I kinda feel better about Suarez for 5 than Breggie, so I'm not going to complain. It does make me shake my head and wonder, though.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Understood, but I dont care.

THere are three types of teams in mLb

Teams with a top 3 offense
Teams that are trying to improve their offense
Jokes

THere are three types of teams in mLb

Teams with a top 3 pitching
Teams that are trying to improve their pitching
Jokes

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

THere are three types of teams in mLb

Teams with a top 3 pitching
Teams that are trying to improve their pitching
Jokes

Pitching can be figured out, and it can come from nowhere. Look at early. Also, you really dont need more than a true ace and a few more average starters to win.

Its simply not the same.

Also, defense contributes heavy on the run prevention side, so its not the same

Offense (50%) = pitching (35%) + defense (15%)

 

[drewski6]

Young pitchers also seem to do better to me than young hitters.

[drewski6]

I would have been fine with Crochet, Tolle, Bello, Early, Crawford

So we've added a ton of pitching depth.  But I dont think our 5 starters today are better than they would have been. Or much better.  I think Tolle is better than Gray or will be by season end, Early vs Ranger, I lean Ranger but its not really the same as upgrading a position player who will play every day. The impact of replacing Early with Ranger I dont think is huge.

So fine, you built a team that has elite pitching and sub-par hitting.  I would have went the other way and I dont think its a preference.  I think that teams with good hitting and suspect pitching generally go further than the inverse. 

But I understand that we didnt want to spend what it would have cost (yes, thats thing) to have a good offense, so we put together a great pitching staff cuz the big dogs know that hitting matters more - so youre competing with small dogs for pitchers vs big dogs for hitters and we came up short.

But Im not goin to lie to myself and say this was plan A for us or Breslow.  He missed on improving the offense so he built a great staff.

Okay but.....we;ll need some serious breakouts or great hitting external acquisiitons to win the AL, which we always needed and still do.

[notin]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If we can add Paredes and keep Duran and Bello, I'd say we are close enough to be even with TOR and NYY and a top 5 team in MLB. I'm not sure that can be done, unless some third team gets pulled in, and we part with a top 5 prospect or two from #3-10.

I've heard down here that HOU really wants Abreu back.

Maybe if Houston sign Christian Vazquez, they can undo that trade…

[Hugh2]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Offense (50%) = pitching (35%) + defense (15%)

 

I very much disagree with this.  YOu'd be finding yourself on a team losing a lot of games 8-7 with that mentality. 

[drewski6]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

I very much disagree with this.  YOu'd be finding yourself on a team losing a lot of games 8-7 with that mentality. 

Who told you that defense matters more than offense, i want names.