Bregman to sign 5 yr 175 million deal with the Cubs

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Alonso and Bregman (and Schwarber) , total packages were all very close. Yes Breg cleared 170m but enough deferred to make the hit and present value closer to 30-31 per.

This is a triple down that a player of around this caliber in their early 30s (ish) gets around 5 yrs at a little over 30 plus annum.  Thats fair market value for a FA of this tier.

If you see this moves as gross overpayment, then either you are hoping for a market correction or you are unwilling to shop at the second tier of free agency, which the sox may be unwilling to do as well.

The lower AAV matters, but we can't say Breggie is making $30M a year.

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Indeed, that was one goal, but so was adding a big bat.

Contreras helped with the corner IF defense, and they probably thinks he has enough power to at least make up for the Breggie loss, but who makes up for losing Devers?

I'd rather have Bregman than Suarez. Alonso and Suarez would be about the same AAV as Contreras and Bregman, but the D would be way worse, granted.

They shot themselves in the foot by thinking they had Bregman in the bag, that's for sure. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Cubs gave a no-trade clause.

The Red Sox wouldn't, because that doesn't jibe with their business plan of signing star players, and then dumping those market salaries once they've raised ticket prices and sold enough seats. 

 

[Old Red]

35 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They shot themselves in the foot by thinking they had Bregman in the bag, that's for sure. 

And  now they have to go to that all familiar third option in the fork in the road.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Their goal was to make the IF defense better this year. Signing Alonso and Suarez would not meet that goal.

Not disputing that, but Cora has complained at length about the D now for the last three years frequently on the postgame on NESN. if they can make the D better that’s good, but you still have to have some big bats.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

And  now they have to go to that all familiar third option in the fork in the road.

We hadn't heard Suarez's name before now. This is beyond the third fork IMO. 

[notin]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

We hadn't heard Suarez's name before now. This is beyond the third fork IMO. 

I am really not excited about Suarez.  Granted he has been a very underrated player throughout his career.  

In the absence of power options, focus on OBP?

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

The lower AAV matters, but we can't say Breggie is making $30M a year.

FWIW Cot's is showing Bregman's AAV at 32.548 mill.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

They shot themselves in the foot by thinking they had Bregman in the bag, that's for sure. 

I never got the impression they were sure to land Bregman.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

FWIW Cot's is showing Bregman's AAV at 32.548 mill.

The AAV is one thing, and that does seem to matter a lot to JH & Co. Bute he's making $175M and playing 5 seasons. That matters, too.

It's not much more than Alonso, but we missed on Alonso by a long shot.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I never got the impression they were sure to land Bregman.

From reports the Red Sox made an offer to Bregman early on that Bregman was a little mad at, but the Red SOX didn’t budge until near the end with their final offer, but as usual too little too late. I don’t know if they were sure they would land Bregman, but I think he was plan A&B.

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I never got the impression they were sure to land Bregman.

They thought that since they never budged from the "no trade" clause issue and didn't believe Breggie's agent when told the Cubs made a higher offer than the Sox. 

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They thought that since they never budged from the "no trade" clause issue and didn't believe Breggie's agent when told the Cubs made a higher offer than the Sox. 

So another words, there was bad communication.....hmmmm

[JoeBrady]

41 minutes ago, notin said:

I am really not excited about Suarez.  Granted he has been a very underrated player throughout his career.  

In the absence of power options, focus on OBP?

To me, just focus on WAR.  In a vacuum, I prefer OBP over HRs, but if the WAR difference between Bregman and Suarez is only 1.4, then the OBP/SLG difference is almost inconsequential.

[notin]

7 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

To me, just focus on WAR.  In a vacuum, I prefer OBP over HRs, but if the WAR difference between Bregman and Suarez is only 1.4, then the OBP/SLG difference is almost inconsequential.

I like WAR, but at what point does it become noticeable?  Is 0.5 WAR a good improvement?   Half a win is kind of an abstract concept.  

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

I like WAR, but at what point does it become noticeable?  Is 0.5 WAR a good improvement?   Half a win is kind of an abstract concept.  

And which WAR calc are you leaning on when choosing to go with a player? 

David Hamilton '25: 0.1 fWAR, 1.0 bWAR

[notin]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

And which WAR calc are you leaning on when choosing to go with a player? 

David Hamilton '25: 0.1 fWAR, 1.0 bWAR

That’s another issue.

I prefer fWAR, but unfortunately B-R is more phone friendly so it’s easier to look up.

Yes sometimes my criteria is that simple…

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

That’s another issue.

I prefer fWAR, but unfortunately B-R is more phone friendly so it’s easier to look up.

Yes sometimes my criteria is that simple…

I agree on fWAR vs bWAR. Also agree on FanGraph's website functionality or lack thereof. That site should be amazing, but it leaves something to be desired a lot of times. 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I like WAR, but at what point does it become noticeable?  Is 0.5 WAR a good improvement?   Half a win is kind of an abstract concept.  

At some point, and not particularly abstract, it is more about fit than 0.5.  I want a righty at 2B/3B., and I will give away 0.5 to get one.  And it depends on duration.  Suarez at 2 years v Bregman at 5 years, is worth taking slightly worse WAR.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

And which WAR calc are you leaning on when choosing to go with a player? 

David Hamilton '25: 0.1 fWAR, 1.0 bWAR

For me, it depends on what I am looking for.  If I want to sum up a player's last three years, I use BR.  If I want to check a rookie's final two months, I use BR.  If I want to find a pitchers' velocity trend, or K-BB%, I use FG.

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I agree on fWAR vs bWAR. Also agree on FanGraph's website functionality or lack thereof. That site should be amazing, but it leaves something to be desired a lot of times. 

B-R would be better if they had adjustable leader boards…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

At some point, and not particularly abstract, it is more about fit than 0.5.  I want a righty at 2B/3B., and I will give away 0.5 to get one.  And it depends on duration.  Suarez at 2 years v Bregman at 5 years, is worth taking slightly worse WAR.

And not only 2 (or 3) years vs 5, but also $23-27M vs whatever you want to call what Breggie got ($32-35M.)

I hate the big drop in D.

I hate the loss of Bregman's clubhouse leadership and influence on young players, but how high is too high? If CHC paid him $200M/5, we'd have people saying why not $205M/5 and "it's just $1M more a year!"

[Kimmi]

23 hours ago, Old Red said:

And with the Red Sox they have a set limit. It might have been $165M for Bregman, but from reports it was s t r e c h e d out over a long time. What a player is worth to one team might not be that much to another. Alonso was worth $150M to Baltimore, but only $85M to Boston.

IMO, the Red Sox are right to set a limit on what they will spend on any particular player.  Otherwise, things could get crazy trying to outbid another team. 

I don't like that teams are able to defer so much of a player's salary.  I think MLB should do away with that.

[Kimmi]

22 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

There's no way to be sure.  Chicago is a pretty good opportunity, similar to the RS.  I remember Bay going to the NYM, or Cano going to the Mariners, and thinking these guys are ruining their careers for money they will never spend.  But the Cubs are a good franchise.

Fair point.  I still feel like Bregman went for the most money, but I'm not arguing that he won't have a good opportunity with the Cubs.  

Not that I was a Cano fan, and I was glad that he left the Yankees, but I also thought that signing with the Mariners was a bad move for him career-wise.  I guess it doesn't matter if you're making that much money though.  

It's very disheartening to me that most players just go for the most money.

[Kimmi]

21 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm fine with an overpay, when needed, and $165M/5 was a major overpay.

I'd have given $5M more than BAL for Alonso, so I'm not against overpays- just gross ones. I'd have been okay with $165M/5, but that was already past what I'd have paid by a year and $3M AAV, so what is the limit?

Had he signed with us for $170M/5 or even $175M/5, I'd be glad we kept him, but I also think JH will probably be stingy, going forward, and the signing would be prohibitive on future adds,

It sucks he's gone, but if we trade Phillips and Sandlin for Paredes, I'll be happier than Bregman at $180M/5.

100%.  Well said Moon.

[Kimmi]

6 hours ago, drewski6 said:

YOu think they are this rigid?

No, they are not this rigid.

If they were, they wouldn't have given Devers the contract that they gave him.

[Kimmi]

3 hours ago, notin said:

I am really not excited about Suarez.  Granted he has been a very underrated player throughout his career.  

In the absence of power options, focus on OBP?

OBP is still king.

[Kimmi]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

For me, it depends on what I am looking for.  If I want to sum up a player's last three years, I use BR.  If I want to check a rookie's final two months, I use BR.  If I want to find a pitchers' velocity trend, or K-BB%, I use FG.

fWAR is a better predictive stat, and it's my typical go-to.  bWAR is a better descriptive stat of what has actually happened on the field.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

B-R would be better if they had adjustable leader boards…

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

No, they are not this rigid.

If they were, they wouldn't have given Devers the contract that they gave him.

That was Bloom. He's not here anymore.