Why sign Houck and Casas?

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

He says the same thing every post.

• JH is cheap.
• The Flops are a disgusting organization.
• We're never going to sign anyone.

The owners are cheap 

This IS a disgusting franchise 

And I would be shocked if they signed a talented bat

Still true.

[JoeBrady]

21 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

The owners are cheap 

This IS a disgusting franchise 

And I would be shocked if they signed a talented bat

I predicted that would be your next post.

[FredLynn]

8 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I predicted that would be your next post.

Congratulations!

[notin]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

I predicted that would be your next post.

Gee, how did you do that?  By catching any of his last 25,000 posts?

[JoeBrady]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

Gee, how did you do that?  By catching any of his last 25,000 posts?

To be honest, I stopped reading after the first 15,000 iterations.  I just thought it was odd that he waited until earlier today, to respond to one of yesterday's post, just so he could say JH was cheap.  He had no other point.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Yes I’d be shocked. The history of this team is that the owner is a tightwad. Sure it’s possible. It’s possible that Duran will win the batting title this year, but I wouldn’t bet on it. That said I would be delighted if we acquired the pieces we need to become the contender that we currently are not. 
PS: I’m not trading Bello. Use other players in a trade. Maybe we can finally get rid of Rafaela.

I would not trade Bello, either. I'd look to trade any or all of Sandoval, Hicks and Masa to save whatever it took to offer ESuarez a deal, with deferrals, if needed, that keeps us unde rthe third tax line. I think it may be doable, and it still fits the model that JH is too cheap to go over line 3.

Plus, I'm not for intentionally going over line 3 and facing the draft and bonus pool monies to do so. I'd rather trade to a 3Bman, instead.

I don't think it's absurd to think we might sign Suarez.

More likely, we trade for Paredes and BKing or Sousa (both decent LH's RP'ers w HOU.)

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

To be honest, I stopped reading after the first 15,000 iterations.  I just thought it was odd that he waited until earlier today, to respond to one of yesterday's post, just so he could say JH was cheap.  He had no other point.

AAV New to the 2026 budget (not on opening day 2025 budget or years of control were ending.)

$26M Ranger

$21M Contreras

$16M Anthony

$13M Chapman

$11M Gray

$10M Hicks

$8M Campbell

Sure, we lost the salaries of Devers, Buehler, Gio and others, but this new spending is anything but "cheap." It's even relatively cheap.

Yes, our spending vs revenue ranking is still bad, but even that has improved, I'm sure of it.

Yes, JH was cheap as hell from the Sale/Nate extension before 2019 to winter 2024-2025. He has NOT been after the start or the 2024 season. That may be shocking, but it it's fact, and it's 2 years in a row, now.

Going forward, nobody knows. I would not be shocked, if we trade Bello, Sandoval, Duran and Campbell over the next year or two. I won't be shocked if we sign Suarez and keep al but one or two of the guys I just listed,

[FredLynn]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I would not trade Bello, either. I'd look to trade any or all of Sandoval, Hicks and Masa to save whatever it took to offer ESuarez a deal, with deferrals, if needed, that keeps us unde rthe third tax line. I think it may be doable, and it still fits the model that JH is too cheap to go over line 3.

Plus, I'm not for intentionally going over line 3 and facing the draft and bonus pool monies to do so. I'd rather trade to a 3Bman, instead.

I don't think it's absurd to think we might sign Suarez.

More likely, we trade for Paredes and BKing or Sousa (both decent LH's RP'ers w HOU.)

Paredes is OK, but certainly not in the *star* category of players like Schwarber or Alonso. It would be just more of the same. Yes, he would likely improve the team a little, but its the cheap "Henry" way out.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Paredes is OK, but certainly not in the *star* category of players like Schwarber or Alonso. It would be just more of the same. Yes, he would likely improve the team a little, but its the cheap "Henry" way out.

That's one way to look at it, and I do agree that Alonso & Schwarber should have better numbers in 2026 than Paredes, but it's not a sure bet. (Of course nothing in baseball is.)

By 2027, which is the last year of control on Paredes, he might beat out one of the two you listed in OPS. By year 3, 4 and 5, Paredes will be gone, and the two you listed might be heading for underwater status.

[FredLynn]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That's one way to look at it, and I do agree that Alonso & Schwarber should have better numbers in 2026 than Paredes, but it's not a sure bet. (Of course nothing in baseball is.)

By 2027, which is the last year of control on Paredes, he might beat out one of the two you listed in OPS. By year 3, 4 and 5, Paredes will be gone, and the two you listed might be heading for underwater status.

We have a window to win a ring NOW IMO. By 2028 that may have passed. I would have preferred to capitalize on the 2026 opportunity. Instead we seem to be letting is pass us by because Henry won't pay for top talent.

 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, FredLynn said:

We have a window to win a ring NOW IMO. By 2028 that may have passed. I would have preferred to capitalize on the 2026 opportunity. Instead we seem to be letting is pass us by because Henry won't pay for top talent.

 

I'd wish we'd done more, too. It looks like we've been more reactive than proactive, and didn't bring home the prize(s) we needed the most. The FO basically said we need a #2SP for the rotation, and we spent almost all of our winter spent assets on 3 SP'ers: Suarez, Gray & Oviedo.

The FO said we needed a big bat, since we lost Devers: we have added just Contreras, who is a nice upgrade at 1B, but we gave up trade pieces and are paying a $21M AAV for him. I like the trade, but we still need a big bat and a 3B/2Bman (or one in the same guy) but options are dwindling.

I like E Suarez, but he was not at the top of my list. I had him slightly ahead of Bregman & Bichette for filling the "big bat" need, but Breggie & Bichette are better defenders at filling the 3B/2B need.

Paredes might be a better "big bat" than E Suarez, especially if he can pull the ball like he has with HOU, but at Fenway. You know pitchers will pitch him differently there, and we can only speculate on his success or lack of it. He's a better defender than E Suarez, so I'd prefer him over Suarez, but he needs a trade not just money.

We've backed ourselves in a corner in a number of ways. It's a bit confusing, comical or worse, depending on how you choose to look at it, but building the top rotation and near top rotation depth in MLB is not a bad thing. There are more ways to win than by bashing homers. We've seen enough of Red Sox history to know it's hard to win rings by bashing alone. Our first ring came when we added Schilling to Pedro. Our second ring came when we added Beckett to Schilling. Our third ring when we added Lackey to Lester, and out 4th came when we added Sale to Price.

Now, our offense looks worse than those ring teams, but our rotation looks deeper. That might not be enough. IMO, we look about even in win projections to what we won, last year. Adding Paredes makes us better, but like you, I had hopes we'd get way better, not just 2-3 wins better.

It's not like we haven't spent money this and last winter. Someone just pointed out that the AAV given Ranger was about the same as we offered Bregman. I think we'd be a better team with Bregman over Ranger, but it's not a slam dunk speculation. If we add Paredes, I'd much prefer Ranger + Paredes to Bregman + some cheap RP'er addition, which is what I think might have happened.

Adding Ranger, Gray, Paredes, Contreras and Oviedo is pretty damn significant.

Losing Devers, Bregman, Giolito and Refsnyder is too, but we also lost a few players who look like additions by subtractions, most notably Buehler, D May & Toro.

I think we would be significantly better with Paredes and maybe B King or Sousa from HOU. It's not all I hoped for. I thought we needed just 3 major pieces and not 5 pretty good ones. If we add Paredes, I'm going to be more optimistic than pessimistic, but I know there is no chance of you ever being optimistic.

[JoeBrady]

40 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Paredes is OK, but certainly not in the *star* category of players like Schwarber or Alonso.

At the same number of ABs, Paredes will have a higher fWAR than Alonso.  FG 2026 WAR/650 PAs Alonso = 2.87 and Paredes  = 2.94.  Schwarber is slightly better at 3.29.

Over the past three seasons, Paredes has a higher fWAR than either of those two guys.  You under-estimate defensive position value.

[FredLynn]

8 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

At the same number of ABs, Paredes will have a higher fWAR than Alonso.  FG 2026 WAR/650 PAs Alonso = 2.87 and Paredes  = 2.94.  Schwarber is slightly better at 3.29.

Over the past three seasons, Paredes has a higher fWAR than either of those two guys.  You under-estimate defensive position value.

We need a solid talented hitter. So I’d look at ERA+ as a good way to measure that. Paredes has a lower ERA+ I believe than Schwarber or Alonso. Had we signed Schwarber along with Ranger I’d look at that as a commitment to winning. Of course, that didn’t happen. 

[FredLynn]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd wish we'd done more, too. It looks like we've been more reactive than proactive, and didn't bring home the prize(s) we needed the most. The FO basically said we need a #2SP for the rotation, and we spent almost all of our winter spent assets on 3 SP'ers: Suarez, Gray & Oviedo.

The FO said we needed a big bat, since we lost Devers: we have added just Contreras, who is a nice upgrade at 1B, but we gave up trade pieces and are paying a $21M AAV for him. I like the trade, but we still need a big bat and a 3B/2Bman (or one in the same guy) but options are dwindling.

I like E Suarez, but he was not at the top of my list. I had him slightly ahead of Bregman & Bichette for filling the "big bat" need, but Breggie & Bichette are better defenders at filling the 3B/2B need.

Paredes might be a better "big bat" than E Suarez, especially if he can pull the ball like he has with HOU, but at Fenway. You know pitchers will pitch him differently there, and we can only speculate on his success or lack of it. He's a better defender than E Suarez, so I'd prefer him over Suarez, but he needs a trade not just money.

We've backed ourselves in a corner in a number of ways. It's a bit confusing, comical or worse, depending on how you choose to look at it, but building the top rotation and near top rotation depth in MLB is not a bad thing. There are more ways to win than by bashing homers. We've seen enough of Red Sox history to know it's hard to win rings by bashing alone. Our first ring came when we added Schilling to Pedro. Our second ring came when we added Beckett to Schilling. Our third ring when we added Lackey to Lester, and out 4th came when we added Sale to Price.

Now, our offense looks worse than those ring teams, but our rotation looks deeper. That might not be enough. IMO, we look about even in win projections to what we won, last year. Adding Paredes makes us better, but like you, I had hopes we'd get way better, not just 2-3 wins better.

It's not like we haven't spent money this and last winter. Someone just pointed out that the AAV given Ranger was about the same as we offered Bregman. I think we'd be a better team with Bregman over Ranger, but it's not a slam dunk speculation. If we add Paredes, I'd much prefer Ranger + Paredes to Bregman + some cheap RP'er addition, which is what I think might have happened.

Adding Ranger, Gray, Paredes, Contreras and Oviedo is pretty damn significant.

Losing Devers, Bregman, Giolito and Refsnyder is too, but we also lost a few players who look like additions by subtractions, most notably Buehler, D May & Toro.

I think we would be significantly better with Paredes and maybe B King or Sousa from HOU. It's not all I hoped for. I thought we needed just 3 major pieces and not 5 pretty good ones. If we add Paredes, I'm going to be more optimistic than pessimistic, but I know there is no chance of you ever being optimistic.

I’d be optimistic had they signed Schwarber and Ranger along with the others they got. I don’t see this team as currently constructed as a real contender for a ring.

[Old Red]

32 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I’d be optimistic had they signed Schwarber and Ranger along with the others they got. I don’t see this team as currently constructed as a real contender for a ring.

There will be comparisons all season long between Alonso, and Con Man, and also between Raffy, and whomever plays 3B for the Red Sox.

[moonslav59]

56 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I’d be optimistic had they signed Schwarber and Ranger along with the others they got. I don’t see this team as currently constructed as a real contender for a ring.

Do you think we are better than last year?

If we add Paredes without losing Bello or Duran (or similar) are we better?

If yes, how much better?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

At the same number of ABs, Paredes will have a higher fWAR than Alonso.  FG 2026 WAR/650 PAs Alonso = 2.87 and Paredes  = 2.94.  Schwarber is slightly better at 3.29.

Over the past three seasons, Paredes has a higher fWAR than either of those two guys.  You under-estimate defensive position value.

Paredes has dealt with injuries, and that is a concern. While Alonso and Schwarber are both older, they have stayed healthy- Alonso has been the ironman for a couple years.

I'd have loved to have signed Alonso, and Bregman would have been nice, instead. I know Fred wanted both, and so did I. We can argue all day long about JH being cheap, our ranking in spending vs Revenue or whatever, but the fact is JH has limits, like just about every team. We've seen a significant uptick in spending from 2023 or 2024 to 2026. Of course it could have been more, but it wasn't and likely won't be much more than we've seen the last 2 winters.

Spotrac has us 6th in 2026 payroll AAV, and we are $16M behind NYY for 5th. They may sign Bellinger or someone else and go up by another $20-30M. I seriously doubt we ever get to top 5, unless something radical happens.

$226M (12th) 2023 and 2024

$249M (7th) 2025

$276M (6th) 2026

I know this is not enough for many posters, but it is an uptick. We can also argue that we spent the money poorly, and that would be on Brez not JH. Some want to blame Cora for not helping us win as much as we could or might have. Some point to injuries and our trend on adding injury prone players more than the norm.

I'm fine with people saying we should have spent more or spent it more wisely. I agree with much of what is said by those posters. What I often argue about is when people say, "JH won't spend, anymore." We are spending $50M more than 2023 and 2024. That's a 22% increase. 

This is not a defense or apology for JH. I wish he'd let Brez spend more or knock off the BS "no trade" crap and "no 6+ year" implied limits. If we really and truly wanted Breggie, we shoulda-coulda had him- Alonso, too or instead. I'm not saying this could not be true.

Looking at just the AAV, we could have afforded Berggie or Alonso + Ranger, had we not added Contreras & Gray. Is that a better team? Is that a ring contender? If yes, then this is on Brez.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

We need a solid talented hitter. So I’d look at ERA+ as a good way to measure that. Paredes has a lower ERA+ I believe than Schwarber or Alonso. Had we signed Schwarber along with Ranger I’d look at that as a commitment to winning. Of course, that didn’t happen. 

I assume you mean OPS+...

OPS+ 2025 / 2023-2025

150/135 Schwarber (turns 33 soon)

145/141 KMarte (just turned 32)

144/130 Alonso (just turned 31)

130/121 Bregman (will be 32 soon)

129/114 Bichette (will be 28 soon)

123/121 Paredes (will be 27 soon)

As you can see, the top 3 are significantly better than the bottom 3, Paredes is better than B & B over a 3 year span and is younger than all 6 on this list.

KMarte is better than all 6 over 3 years, but would cost a lot in trade to get.

123/127 Contreras looks better than some seem to think. He turns 34, soon. If we could get 120+ from Contreras and Paredes, I think we'll be okay, but I know we all wanted better than just "Okay."

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Had we signed Schwarber along with Ranger I’d look at that as a commitment to winning

So the commitment to winning revolves around Breslow signing guys that you like?

[JoeBrady]

46 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

While Alonso and Schwarber are both older, they have stayed healthy-

That's part of the package with guys that don't move.

[FredLynn]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Do you think we are better than last year?

If we add Paredes without losing Bello or Duran (or similar) are we better?

If yes, how much better?

Maybe a couple of wins better because we also added Contreras and Suarez.  I think we will be better with Gray as the #3-4 SP. But we also lost players, Bregman being the most significant. So 2-3 wins better but not in a position to compete for a ring. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Maybe a couple of wins better because we also added Contreras and Suarez.  I think we will be better with Gray as the #3-4 SP. But we also lost players, Bregman being the most significant. So 2-3 wins better but not in a position to compete for a ring. 

Fair enough. I was hoping we could get to top 3-4 status. Fangraphs has us 7th, which seems about right. NYM & SEA just above us and PHI & BAL just below us.

We are closer to #5 (-1.3 from the Mets) and -1.6 from ATL at #4 than #10 HOU (+2.0) and #9 BAL (+1.2), for what that is worth.

If we add Paredes and a decent RP'er maybe we can moved up to #6 or #5, assuming neither of them adds plus players. I'm a huge Paredes fan.

[Michigan Adam2]

I know we have alot of fringe depth for infield, but are we better off getting a parades AND a Donavan like player or sticking with a mayer for second?  With this pitching staff id hate 2 things. Poor inf D, and to just fall a hair short on offense. I do realize we could go get someone later as well. 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Michigan Adam2 said:

I know we have alot of fringe depth for infield, but are we better off getting a parades AND a Donavan like player or sticking with a mayer for second?  With this pitching staff id hate 2 things. Poor inf D, and to just fall a hair short on offense. I do realize we could go get someone later as well. 

That is the worry. Ideally, we'd have added a decent bat and great glove at 3B (Bregman) or a great bat and decent glove at 2B (KMarte,) but neither is going to happen.

Possible options:

Plus power bat/bad D 3B: E Suarez or Vientos

Plus bat & decent D 3B/2B/1B: Paredes

Decent D and decent bat 2B/3B: Donovan

 

[Old Red]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Paredes has dealt with injuries, and that is a concern. While Alonso and Schwarber are both older, they have stayed healthy- Alonso has been the ironman for a couple years.

I'd have loved to have signed Alonso, and Bregman would have been nice, instead. I know Fred wanted both, and so did I. We can argue all day long about JH being cheap, our ranking in spending vs Revenue or whatever, but the fact is JH has limits, like just about every team. We've seen a significant uptick in spending from 2023 or 2024 to 2026. Of course it could have been more, but it wasn't and likely won't be much more than we've seen the last 2 winters.

Spotrac has us 6th in 2026 payroll AAV, and we are $16M behind NYY for 5th. They may sign Bellinger or someone else and go up by another $20-30M. I seriously doubt we ever get to top 5, unless something radical happens.

$226M (12th) 2023 and 2024

$249M (7th) 2025

$276M (6th) 2026

I know this is not enough for many posters, but it is an uptick. We can also argue that we spent the money poorly, and that would be on Brez not JH. Some want to blame Cora for not helping us win as much as we could or might have. Some point to injuries and our trend on adding injury prone players more than the norm.

I'm fine with people saying we should have spent more or spent it more wisely. I agree with much of what is said by those posters. What I often argue about is when people say, "JH won't spend, anymore." We are spending $50M more than 2023 and 2024. That's a 22% increase. 

This is not a defense or apology for JH. I wish he'd let Brez spend more or knock off the BS "no trade" crap and "no 6+ year" implied limits. If we really and truly wanted Breggie, we shoulda-coulda had him- Alonso, too or instead. I'm not saying this could not be true.

Looking at just the AAV, we could have afforded Berggie or Alonso + Ranger, had we not added Contreras & Gray. Is that a better team? Is that a ring contender? If yes, then this is on Brez.

Oh no another I’m not defending, or apologizing for JH piece. Where have I seen that before?🤔

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's hard to say the Red Sox are better than last year because they just added Suarez to the rotation.

The guy is a ground ball pitcher, and Boston lost its best infielder -- and has yet to replace him. It defeats the purpose of recruiting a pitch-to-contact starter if you don't surround him with stellar support in the field.

Crochet-Suarez-Gray might be as good as any trio in the majors, but don't forget the strength of the '25 Sox was Crochet-Giolito-Bello taking regular turns, with career-years from Whitlock and Chapman closing. 

Rational posters have cautioned about expectations for Chappy to repeat his automatic 9ths, but what about Whit (1 earned run allowed in 27 games through the '25 second half)?

[mvp 78]

On 1/17/2026 at 6:55 PM, moonslav59 said:

AAV New to the 2026 budget (not on opening day 2025 budget or years of control were ending.)

$26M Ranger

$21M Contreras

$16M Anthony

$13M Chapman

$11M Gray

$10M Hicks

$8M Campbell

Sure, we lost the salaries of Devers, Buehler, Gio and others, but....

Kinda ruin the premise with the sentence at the end. Spending is up, but it's not up 105M as you seem to suggest. 

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, Michigan Adam2 said:

I know we have alot of fringe depth for infield, but are we better off getting a parades AND a Donavan like player or sticking with a mayer for second?  With this pitching staff id hate 2 things. Poor inf D, and to just fall a hair short on offense. I do realize we could go get someone later as well. 

Donovan and Mayer serve the same purpose both being LHB. I don't see his fit on the roster if Paredes is acquired. Plus, it would get them over the 3rd threshold most likely. I think they just need to decide between Donovan (option B) and Paredes (option A) IMO. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

It's hard to say the Red Sox are better than last year because they just added Suarez to the rotation.

The guy is a ground ball pitcher, and Boston lost its best infielder -- and has yet to replace him. It defeats the purpose of recruiting a pitch-to-contact starter if you don't surround him with stellar support in the field.

Crochet-Suarez-Gray might be as good as any trio in the majors, but don't forget the strength of the '25 Sox was Crochet-Giolito-Bello taking regular turns, with career-years from Whitlock and Chapman closing. 

Rational posters have cautioned about expectations for Chappy to repeat his automatic 9ths, but what about Whit (1 earned run allowed in 27 games through the '25 second half)?

Per the metrics, Mayer may be better than Bregman at 3b. 

Bregman 972 Inn, 1 DRS, 3 OAA, 3 FRV, 9 E

Mayer 248 Inn, 0 DRS, 2 OAA, 2 FRV, 1 E

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Per the metrics, Mayer may be better than Bregman at 3b. 

Bregman 972 Inn, 1 DRS, 3 OAA, 3 FRV, 9 E

Mayer 248 Inn, 0 DRS, 2 OAA, 2 FRV, 1 E

What's on second.