What the AL East Division competition is doing

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

Odd that 4 of his 6 HRs came against LHP when Cash has been known to platoon him.

In '20 and '21, he was basically fulltime. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

50 minutes ago, notin said:

Lowe does check all the boxes for the minimum requirements to play first base.

1.  Can hit

2. Cannot field anywhere else

3. Capable of catching balls thrown to him.

4. Surname: Lowe.

[mvp 78]

Orioles acquiring Shane Baz from the Rays for prospects.

[mvp 78]

Rays involved in another trade acquiring two prospects from the Astros.

 

[notin]

On 12/4/2025 at 10:23 AM, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

4. Surname: Lowe.

But pronounced to rhyme with “Ow”…

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

But pronounced to rhyme with “Ow”…

Like how I'm feeling since the freakin' audit partner is doing the workpapers on the audit this year. What the hell guy? Economy isn't good to afford first year staff accountants these days I guess..

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

26 minutes ago, notin said:

But pronounced to rhyme with “Ow”…

That's why I deleted my middle schoolish post to moon's percentage chart...

...trying to be more subtle, which is what basically got me through teaching unfired (never had problems with kids folks, because at the time I was not apparent).

woof, Oddball

 

[notin]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Orioles acquiring Shane Baz from the Rays for prospects.

Someone has to take over Grayson Rodriguez’ IL spot.

Serously, what are the Orioles thinking?  They give away Rodriguez and all his injuries to get one year of a 30+ outfielder coming off a career year at the plate.  And then they go acquire another pitcher wuth injury issues similar to the ones they unloaded Rodriguez for having, but is also is not as good on the mound that he gets too less often…

[mvp 78]

On 12/19/2025 at 5:06 PM, notin said:

Someone has to take over Grayson Rodriguez’ IL spot.

Serously, what are the Orioles thinking?  They give away Rodriguez and all his injuries to get one year of a 30+ outfielder coming off a career year at the plate.  And then they go acquire another pitcher wuth injury issues similar to the ones they unloaded Rodriguez for having, but is also is not as good on the mound that he gets too less often…

The Rays moves are making a lot of sense. The Orioles are just getting marginally better maybe. I don't get it. They are making changes to show the fans they are making changes I think. The Alonso deal was a make good to the fans from the new ownership. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

The Rays moves are making a lot of sense. The Orioles are just getting marginally better maybe. I don't get it. They are making changes to show the fans they are making changes I think. The Alonso deal was a make good to the fans from the new ownership. 

The Orioles have been acting like a team that  never had prospects before.  At first, they just held everyone and refused to make deals when they needed help.  Now they’re dumping off the ones that didn’t pan out as expected for whatever they can get…

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

The Orioles have been acting like a team that  never had prospects before.  At first, they just held everyone and refused to make deals when they needed help.  Now they’re dumping off the ones that didn’t pan out as expected for whatever they can get…

The FO over there has been highly regarded. I wonder if the new ownership is doing a bit of tinkering because these moves are a little different than what they've done recently. 

[moonslav59]

There is little doubt the Jays are serious.

[Deja Doh]

Pittsburgh seems have scored big in this trade.  Not sure what's up with the Rays thinking.  Lowe is a 30 homer 2Ber who is 31.  He's a dead pull hitting lefty.

On 12/19/2025 at 10:31 AM, mvp 78 said:

Rays involved in another trade acquiring two prospects from the Astros.

 

 

[UtahSox]

On 12/23/2025 at 6:11 AM, mvp 78 said:

The Rays moves are making a lot of sense. The Orioles are just getting marginally better maybe. I don't get it. They are making changes to show the fans they are making changes I think. The Alonso deal was a make good to the fans from the new ownership. 

Funny how they added 2 right handed bats that they needed that each hit 36+ home runs and 100+ RBI’s both are right in their prime. And swapped essentially Baz for Rodriguez (always injured) and are still not done. And we marginalize their improvements. If we added Baz for Houck, and Ward+ Alonso to RS we’d be over the moon.
 

They still have all the young core Henderson, beavers, Basallo, Holladay, rautschman, westburg… I don’t know much about their FO but that was a master class on how to maneuver in a “championship window”. AL East will be a nightmare. 

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Funny how they added 2 right handed bats that they needed that each hit 36+ home runs and 100+ RBI’s both are right in their prime. And swapped essentially Baz for Rodriguez (always injured) and are still not done. And we marginalize their improvements. If we added Baz for Houck, and Ward+ Alonso to RS we’d be over the moon.
 

They still have all the young core Henderson, beavers, Basallo, Holladay, rautschman, westburg… I don’t know much about their FO but that was a master class on how to maneuver in a “championship window”. AL East will be a nightmare. 

Look at the holes in the 26 man rosters of BAL and TBR. They have way more than the 2 the Sox have. (fangraphs does have BAL almost tied w BOS, so maybe I'm wrong.) TOR might have just 1 major hole. The Yanks have a few, but they will make some signings, at some point. You can count on that more than on JH allowing Brez to spend.

Anything can happen, and the ALE looks tough again.

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs fWAR Projections:

BAL:

C: 4.5 (Rutschman 3.4)

1B: 2.9 (Alosno 2.6)

2B: 3.3 (Holiday 2.6)

SS: 6.1 (Gunnar 6.0)

3B: 3.4 (Westburg 2.9)

That's a nice first 5!

LF: 2.6 (TWard 2.4)

CF: 2.5 (Cowser 2.0)

RF: 2.2 (Beavers 1.4)

DH: 1.5 (Basallo 0.4/O'Neill 0.3)

SP 11.1 (Rogers 2.4, Bradish 3.1, Baz 2.0, Kremer 1.3, Wells 0.9, Povich 0.8)

RP: 2.5 (Helsley 1.0, Kittredge 0.6, Akin & Enns 0.3, Selby & Cano 0.2)

They got us beat at Catcher and Infield, but we blow their OF away, their DH, too, but most importantly or pitching wins 22 to 13.6!

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs fWAR Projections:

TBR:

C: 2.3  (Fortes 1.2)

1B: 2.7 (Aranda 1.8)

2B: 1.4 (Palacios 0.8)

SS: 1.6 (Williams 1.1)

3B: 5.4 (Caminero5.4)

They beat us at 3B, only!

LF: 1.3 (Simpson 0.9)

CF: 2.1 (Mullins 1.4)

RF: 1.5 (Jo Lowe 1.1)

DH: 2.8 (Y Diaz 2.3)

SP 12.3 (McClanahan 2.9, Rasm 2.8, Pepiot 2.1, Matz 1.7, Boyle 1.0, Seymour o.8, Gomez 0.3)

RP: 3.4 (Jax 1.4, Cleav 0.8, Uceta 0.7, Baker 0.4, Englert 0.2 & nobody else above zero)

They got us beat at DH & 3B only. Our pitching wins 22 to 15.7.

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs fWAR Projections:

NYY:

C: 4.8 (Wells 3.7) >Sox 2.4

1B: 2.5 (Rice 2.2) > Sox 2.2

2B: 3.8 (Chisolm 3.4) > Sox 2.3

SS: 3.0 (Volpe 2.3/Caballero 0.6)> Sox 2.0

3B: 2.3 (McMahon 1.5/Rosario 0.6)> Sox 2.0

They beat us at all 5, here.

LF: 2.0 (Dominguez 1.7) < 3.0 Sox

CF: 3.6 (Grisham 2.6) <5.9 Sox

RF: 6.7 (Judge 6.5)> 2.8 Sox

DH: 1.5 (Stanton 1.1) <1.7 Sox

We are bout even on the OF=DH slots.

SP 13.0 (Fried 3.6, Rodon 2.2 (on IL) Cole 1.9 (ret from IL) Schlitter 1.8, Warren 1.5, Gil 1.0, Schmidt 0.3)

RP: 3.1 (Bednar 1.2, Doval & Cruz 0.8, Bird 0.2, Headrick & Blackburn 0.1  & nobody else above zero)

They got us beat at a few slots, but our pitching wins 22 to 16.1. They need Rodon & Cole to return from injury to just keep their staff close to ours.

 

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs fWAR Projections:

NYY:

C: 4.8 (Wells 3.7) >Sox 2.4

1B: 2.5 (Rice 2.2) > Sox 2.2

2B: 3.8 (Chisolm 3.4) > Sox 2.3

SS: 3.0 (Volpe 2.3/Caballero 0.6)> Sox 2.0

3B: 2.3 (McMahon 1.5/Rosario 0.6)> Sox 2.0

They beat us at all 5, here.

LF: 2.0 (Dominguez 1.7) < 3.0 Sox

CF: 3.6 (Grisham 2.6) <5.9 Sox

RF: 6.7 (Judge 6.5)> 2.8 Sox

DH: 1.5 (Stanton 1.1) <1.7 Sox

We are bout even on the OF=DH slots.

SP 13.0 (Fried 3.6, Rodon 2.2 (on IL) Cole 1.9 (ret from IL) Schlitter 1.8, Warren 1.5, Gil 1.0, Schmidt 0.3)

RP: 3.1 (Bednar 1.2, Doval & Cruz 0.8, Bird 0.2, Headrick & Blackburn 0.1  & nobody else above zero)

They got us beat at a few slots, but our pitching wins 22 to 16.1. They need Rodon & Cole to return from injury to just keep their staff close to ours.

[JoeBrady]

11 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

If we added Baz for Houck

Sure, I'd have made that trade.  But the O's gave up 10x as much for Baz.

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs fWAR Projections:

TOR:

C: 5.2 (Kirk 4.5/Hein 0.7) >>Sox 2.4

1B: 5.1 (Guerrero 5.0) >> Sox 2.2

2B: 2.6 (Clement 1.1/Schneider 1.0/Jimenez 0.5) > Sox 2.3

SS: 3.3 (Gimenez 2.3)> Sox 2.0

3B:3.1 (Barger 2.0/ Clement 1.1)> Sox 2.0

They beat us at all 5, here.

LF: 2.0 (Lukes 1.3) < 3.0 Sox

CF: 2.2 (Varsho 1.9) <<5.9 Sox

RF: 2.3 (Springer 1.0/Santander 0.7)<2.8 Sox

DH: 2.1 (Springer 1.4) >1.7 Sox

We beat them at the OF+DH slots.

SP 15.1 (Cease 3.8, Gausman 2.8, Bieber 2.5, Ponce 2.2, Yesavage 2.1, Berrios 1.0, Tiederman 0.4) They have a nice 5 and 6, but some are questionable- like ours are.)

RP: 3.5 (Hoffman 1.1, Varland 0.7, Garcia 0.6, Rogers & nance 0.3, Fisher & Lauer 0.1 & nobody else above zero)

Everyday players 27.4 to 21.8

They got us beat at a few slots, but our pitching wins 22 to 18.6. 

Team Totals:

51.2 LAD

46.3 NYY

46.0 NYY & ATL

45.0 SEA

43.4 NYM

43.1 PHI

42.9 BOS

42.7 BAL

41.3 HOU

41.1 SDP

40.9 KCR

40.7 DET

40.4 MIL

 

[JoeBrady]

47 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Anything can happen, and the ALE looks tough again.

It's always tough.  The benefit of being a big-market team is offset by being surrounded by other big-market teams.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Red Sox have good depth, but star power is what separates contenders. 

Of course, injuries to top players can be a big factor in the races, but Toronto did ok without Bichette for a lot of games. New York endured losing their Cy Young all year to tie the Jays for best AL record. Boston made the playoffs with a depleted second-half Bregman.

Can't always look at WAR, either. In bb-ref's WAR, "All-Star Quality" is defined as 5+ WAR. If that's the case, then the AL East only has two true stars: Judge and Gunnar Henderson...

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Fangraphs fWAR Projections:

TOR:

C: 5.2 (Kirk 4.5/Hein 0.7) >>Sox 2.4

1B: 5.1 (Guerrero 5.0) >> Sox 2.2

2B: 2.6 (Clement 1.1/Schneider 1.0/Jimenez 0.5) > Sox 2.3

SS: 3.3 (Gimenez 2.3)> Sox 2.0

3B:3.1 (Barger 2.0/ Clement 1.1)> Sox 2.0

They beat us at all 5, here.

LF: 2.0 (Lukes 1.3) < 3.0 Sox

CF: 2.2 (Varsho 1.9) <<5.9 Sox

RF: 2.3 (Springer 1.0/Santander 0.7)<2.8 Sox

DH: 2.1 (Springer 1.4) >1.7 Sox

We beat them at the OF+DH slots.

SP 15.1 (Cease 3.8, Gausman 2.8, Bieber 2.5, Ponce 2.2, Yesavage 2.1, Berrios 1.0, Tiederman 0.4) They have a nice 5 and 6, but some are questionable- like ours are.)

RP: 3.5 (Hoffman 1.1, Varland 0.7, Garcia 0.6, Rogers & nance 0.3, Fisher & Lauer 0.1 & nobody else above zero)

Everyday players 27.4 to 21.8

They got us beat at a few slots, but our pitching wins 22 to 18.6. 

Team Totals:

51.2 LAD

46.3 NYY

46.0 NYY & ATL

45.0 SEA

43.4 NYM

43.1 PHI

42.9 BOS

42.7 BAL

41.3 HOU

41.1 SDP

40.9 KCR

40.7 DET

40.4 MIL

 

Projections, and predictions are all useless, and meaningless IMO, and if they weren’t rosters haven’t even been set yet.🤭

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Projections, and predictions are all useless, and meaningless IMO, and if they weren’t rosters haven’t even been set yet.🤭

Not sure about meaningless, but I think they look pretty accurate as a snapshot of where teams are right now.

Yes, rosters are not set, and my guess is the Yanks add more than we do, going forward- maybe TOR, too.

I do think we currently have the best rotation and rotation depth in the ALE and maybe the whole AL. That's a nice thing to have.

[moonslav59]

TOR's pen is not great, but their lowest slot is 2.0 in LF and 2.1 at DH (Springer/Santander share DH & RF.) That's pretty solid and balanced. Their 5th starter is also 2.1, which is great!

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Not sure about meaningless, but I think they look pretty accurate as a snapshot of where teams are right now.

Yes, rosters are not set, and my guess is the Yanks add more than we do, going forward- maybe TOR, too.

I do think we currently have the best rotation and rotation depth in the ALE and maybe the whole AL. That's a nice thing to have.

It’s debatable if the Red Sox have a better rotation than the YANKEES, and I’m not even counting on Cole. Better depth yes.

[notin]

4 hours ago, UtahSox said:

Funny how they added 2 right handed bats that they needed that each hit 36+ home runs and 100+ RBI’s both are right in their prime. And swapped essentially Baz for Rodriguez (always injured) and are still not done. And we marginalize their improvements. If we added Baz for Houck, and Ward+ Alonso to RS we’d be over the moon.
 

They still have all the young core Henderson, beavers, Basallo, Holladay, rautschman, westburg… I don’t know much about their FO but that was a master class on how to maneuver in a “championship window”. AL East will be a nightmare. 

Orioles marketing department?  😉
 
Grayson Rodriguez (238 IP in the last two years) is “always injured.”  Not sure how Shane Baz (286 IP in the last 5 years) is the solution to that problem.

Im not as high on Taylor Ward as the solution to. RHH power issue, considering he has topped 25 HRs just once and is already in his 30s.  It’s possible Baltimore sees something in his swing that will play well at Camden.  But acquiring Ward - especially because he’s also an outfielder - would absolutely not put me over the moon.

Alonso certainly checked a few boxes for Sox’ needs.  And as a 1b, was less likely to command a 6 or 7 year deal.  But missing out on him doesn’t faze me much.  

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

It’s debatable if the Red Sox have a better rotation than the YANKEES, and I’m not even counting on Cole. Better depth yes.

Why do you think so highly of the rest of the Yankee rotation?

Rodon will start the season on the IL, and if thatw as a Sox pitcher, we'd all be writing him off, completely.

Fried is damn good. He's probably the second best SP'er in the ALR to Crochet. Fried turns 32, soon. Some expect decline at age 30-31, so...

The rest are...

Schlitter is 24 and has 73 career IP in MLB. You'd be calling him a "suspect," if he was on the Sox.

Warren started 33 games, but pitched just 162 IP with a 4.44 ERA, His career ERA is 5.16. Why is he better than Bello, Sandoval, Crawford, Harrison and Tolle/Early?

Gil turns 27 in June, but has only gone over 57 IP once in MLB. His 3.50 career ERA is very nice, and he's a good pitcher, when healthy. Where have we heard that before?

Schmidt turns 30, soo. He's decent. 3.83 Career ERA and 3.07 in the last 2 years, but just 34 GS & 186 IP.

They certainly have some promise, and they have shown some success, but I see no reason to think they are or will be better than ours.

Now, if Cole and Rodon find their form, we could be in trouble, but we could say the same about Gray, Bello, Sandoval, Crawford, Oviedo, and we have some hopeful suspects, too.

 

[Old Red]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Why do you think so highly of the rest of the Yankee rotation?

Rodon will start the season on the IL, and if thatw as a Sox pitcher, we'd all be writing him off, completely.

Fried is damn good. He's probably the second best SP'er in the ALR to Crochet. Fried turns 32, soon. Some expect decline at age 30-31, so...

The rest are...

Schlitter is 24 and has 73 career IP in MLB. You'd be calling him a "suspect," if he was on the Sox.

Warren started 33 games, but pitched just 162 IP with a 4.44 ERA, His career ERA is 5.16. Why is he better than Bello, Sandoval, Crawford, Harrison and Tolle/Early?

Gil turns 27 in June, but has only gone over 57 IP once in MLB. His 3.50 career ERA is very nice, and he's a good pitcher, when healthy. Where have we heard that before?

Schmidt turns 30, soo. He's decent. 3.83 Career ERA and 3.07 in the last 2 years, but just 34 GS & 186 IP.

They certainly have some promise, and they have shown some success, but I see no reason to think they are or will be better than ours.

Now, if Cole and Rodon find their form, we could be in trouble, but we could say the same about Gray, Bello, Sandoval, Crawford, Oviedo, and we have some hopeful suspects, too.

 

My bad, because I didn’t even know Rodon had surgery, so thanks for straightening me out.🤓