What the AL East Division competition is doing

[Deja Doh]

Toronto reportedly just signed Dylan Cease, improving their rotation for the near future.

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, Deja Doh said:

Toronto reportedly just signed Dylan Cease, improving their rotation for the near future.

They replaced 3.96 Bassitt with 4.55 Cease.

Granted, Cease is better than Bassitt, especially as projected going forward, but he has to beat Bassitt's 3.96 to be an improvement.

Baassitt has also had a solid 5 year run:

3.15 in 27 GS in '21

3.42 in 30 GS '22

3.60 in 33 '23 (led league in wins)

4.16 in 31 '24

3.96 in 31 '25

Now, they need to replace Bichette, while paying for Guerrero, Cease and Springer.

Let's see what they do the rest of the winter.

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

They replaced 3.96 Bassitt with 4.55 Cease.

Granted, Cease is better than Bassitt, especially as projected going forward, but he has to beat Bassitt's 3.96 to be an improvement.

Baassitt has also had a solid 5 year run:

3.15 in 27 GS in '21

3.42 in 30 GS '22

3.60 in 33 '23 (led league in wins)

4.16 in 31 '24

3.96 in 31 '25

Now, they need to replace Bichette, while paying for Guerrero, Cease and Springer.

Let's see what they do the rest of the winter.

Cease can be a very good pitcher, but I'm glad we didn't sign him to that deal. And as you say losing Baassitt is no small thing. It's a big signing but not a game changer. 

[notin]

45 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Cease can be a very good pitcher, but I'm glad we didn't sign him to that deal. And as you say losing Baassitt is no small thing. It's a big signing but not a game changer. 

Technically they haven’t lost Bassett yet.  He still could re-sign…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

Cease can be a very good pitcher, but I'm glad we didn't sign him to that deal. And as you say losing Baassitt is no small thing. It's a big signing but not a game changer. 

I think Cease is better than his 2025 ERA showed. Bassitt is probably worse than his ERA showed, but I don't see it as a major gain by TOR.

I see Gray as a major upgrade over Buehler, but sadly, he is replacing Gio not Buehler.

[Hitch]

33 minutes ago, notin said:

Technically they haven’t lost Bassett yet.  He still could re-sign…

As it stands he's out of their organisation so they've lost him. If they bring him back then they'll start looking very dangerous rotation wise. I don't expect them to, though. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Hitch said:

As it stands he's out of their organisation so they've lost him. If they bring him back then they'll start looking very dangerous rotation wise. I don't expect them to, though. 

Technically, he's not on their roster.

[moonslav59]

Word is the O's are looking to spend bigly.

Just what we need- an even tougher division!

[Behindenemylines]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Word is the O's are looking to spend bigly.

Just what we need- an even tougher division!

The AL East is always a beast. Playing good teams make you a better team. Sox did well against their division last year. 

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I think Cease is better than his 2025 ERA showed. Bassitt is probably worse than his ERA showed, but I don't see it as a major gain by TOR.

I see Gray as a major upgrade over Buehler, but sadly, he is replacing Gio not Buehler.

Gary is an upgrade over Gio too.  And if he’s “replacing Gio” then that means they’re adding another pitcher

[notin]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think Cease is better than his 2025 ERA showed. Bassitt is probably worse than his ERA showed, but I don't see it as a major gain by TOR.

I see Gray as a major upgrade over Buehler, but sadly, he is replacing Gio not Buehler.

Gray was 7th in MLB in xFIP last year and 11th in FIP.  Up there with all the big boys.  He’s an upgrade over Giolito…

[Behindenemylines]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Gary is an upgrade over Gio too.  And if he’s “replacing Gio” then that means they’re adding another pitcher

That other pitcher that the Sox add could be later this off season, or up until the trade deadline during 2026. Gives them a chance to figure out if any of the kids are ready to help. So maybe Grey is number 2 until next July and then pushed to 3 at trade deadline. 

[mvp 78]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think Cease is better than his 2025 ERA showed. Bassitt is probably worse than his ERA showed, but I don't see it as a major gain by TOR.

I see Gray as a major upgrade over Buehler, but sadly, he is replacing Gio not Buehler.

Gray had better IP, k/9, bb/9, ERA, FIP, xFIP than Cease in '25. Why be so down on Gray and high on Cease? 

[moonslav59]

20 hours ago, notin said:

Gray was 7th in MLB in xFIP last year and 11th in FIP.  Up there with all the big boys.  He’s an upgrade over Giolito…

Yes, I posted those numbers, but those are just some that show him as a number 1 (2 at worst.)

There are others that show him as a 3.

When you are 36 and are coming off two down trending seasons, you have to think further decline is probable. If he was a 1-2, then he might be a 2-3 in 2026. If he was a 2-3, maybe he'll be a 3-4. If he was a 3-4....

[mvp 78]

49 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, I posted those numbers, but those are just some that show him as a number 1 (2 at worst.)

There are others that show him as a 3.

When you are 36 and are coming off two down trending seasons, you have to think further decline is probable. If he was a 1-2, then he might be a 2-3 in 2026. If he was a 2-3, maybe he'll be a 3-4. If he was a 3-4....

Cease's numbers are worse, but you think he's a 2? 

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Cease's numbers are worse, but you think he's a 2? 

I said that?

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Gray had better IP, k/9, bb/9, ERA, FIP, xFIP than Cease in '25. Why be so down on Gray and high on Cease? 

I have never said I wanted Cease. I've said the opposite.

All I said was he is better than his 2025 ERA indicates, and when it was 4.55, that can be a 3-4 type pitcher.

[mvp 78]

TalkSox darling Ryan Helsley to the 0's for 2/28M. Bounce back season and dealt at the deadline? 

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

TalkSox darling Ryan Helsley to the 0's for 2/28M. Bounce back season and dealt at the deadline? 

Makes me think $21M for Gray is a steal.

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Makes me think $21M for Gray is a steal.

Especially once we start seeing what all the other starters for. That Cease contract is steep. I know he's healthy, but he's not a guy I'm worried about having in the division. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Especially once we start seeing what all the other starters for. That Cease contract is steep. I know he's healthy, but he's not a guy I'm worried about having in the division. 

I didn't want Cease at that AAV for 4 years.

[notin]

Red Sox Killer Cedric Mullens to Tampa.

 

Why can’t anyone outside of the AL East sign this guy?

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Red Sox Killer Cedric Mullens to Tampa.

Why can’t anyone outside of the AL East sign this guy?

If we trade for Brandon Lowe, how does his .998 OPS vs the Sox translate?

1.138 at Fenway (.735 at TB)

[Larry Cook]

Toronto bringing in Tucker for a visit???

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If we trade for Brandon Lowe, how does his .998 OPS vs the Sox translate?

1.138 at Fenway (.735 at TB)

Lowe's On Base % the past four years is .314; that might also be the OBP of opposing batters hitting grounders to the right side when he's playing second base. He has a career -1.5 dWAR over eight seasons.

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If we trade for Brandon Lowe, how does his .998 OPS vs the Sox translate?

1.138 at Fenway (.735 at TB)

6 HR's '19-'21 (ERod 3, Hart, Godley, Eovaldi)

1 XBH '22 - '25

As long as the Sox face ERod a bunch, they should be ok to trade for him. 

[notin]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Lowe's On Base % the past four years is .314; that might also be the OBP of opposing batters hitting grounders to the right side when he's playing second base. He has a career -1.5 dWAR over eight seasons.

If only their OBP was a lowly .314.  Maybe reverse those digits.

Lowe is probably a better solution at 1b than 2b.  And no idea why I said “probably”…

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

6 HR's '19-'21 (ERod 3, Hart, Godley, Eovaldi)

1 XBH '22 - '25

As long as the Sox face ERod a bunch, they should be ok to trade for him. 

Odd that 4 of his 6 HRs came against LHP when Cash has been known to platoon him.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

If only their OBP was a lowly .314.  Maybe reverse those digits.

Lowe is probably a better solution at 1b than 2b.  And no idea why I said “probably”…

Because any Franchy or Kyle from Waltham can play first base. Just ask Ron Washington (but not Raffy; next thing you know, someone will pull a pinky typing and ask him to play stenographer).

[notin]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Because any Franchy or Kyle from Waltham can play first base. Just ask Ron Washington (but not Raffy; next thing you know, someone will pull a pinky typing and ask him to play stenographer).

Lowe does check all the boxes for the minimum requirements to play first base.

1.  Can hit

2. Cannot field anywhere else

3. Capable of catching balls thrown to him.