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Posted
15 minutes ago, notin said:

I think Early qualifies as a younger guy.

Not sure if the pros of Merrill Kelly over Early outweigh the cons.  And really, the same could be saud for Sale.

If the Sox get Ryan or Lodolo, thats different.  Or maybe even if they get Brady Singer.  But far too many names pop up that make me think “just go with Early.”

Either get a legit #2 or what's the point in bothering? You're just adding a more expensive guy that isn't providing much upside. 

Posted
3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If JH can't get over the David Price contract, even though the Sox make the 3rd most money in MLB year in and year out, he should sell the team.

Perhaps.

He has paid $140M/6 and $110M/5, but we'll see if he tops that.

Posted
45 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Either get a legit #2 or what's the point in bothering? You're just adding a more expensive guy that isn't providing much upside. 

Kelly may be borderline #2.

Posted
47 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Either get a legit #2 or what's the point in bothering? You're just adding a more expensive guy that isn't providing much upside. 

Exactly.

The Sox have 14 starting pitchers on the 40 man roster, which is actually too many.  Granted Houck is out and Criswell likely not starting.  But they have depth, which is weird to say in November.  So unless you’re adding to the top of the list, why bother?  The Sox dont need more names at the middle or the bottom…

Posted
13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Kelly may be borderline #2.

If the Red Sox can’t get someone younger, and better don’t bother. Like with Crochet give up some suspects, and stop messing around.🤭

Posted
13 hours ago, Hitch said:

At no point, short of spending an absolute fortune, did it look to me like the Red Sox were in a position to start winning consistently.

After 2019, we won 84 games, had the highest payroll in BB, and the worst farm.  Even for rich teams, sometimes you cycles where all your young guys are starting to get paid real money, and all the older guys with big contracts, are starting to decline.  We needed a re-boot.

Posted
3 hours ago, Old Red said:

If the Red Sox can’t get someone younger, and better don’t bother. Like with Crochet give up some suspects, and stop messing around.🤭

Agreed. My mention of Kelly would be if we go mega on 2 big bats and JH insists on a short term contract.

A trade for Ryan and a Kelly signing would be nice, but not if it prevents that second big bat we need.

Posted
3 hours ago, notin said:

Exactly.

The Sox have 14 starting pitchers on the 40 man roster, which is actually too many.  Granted Houck is out and Criswell likely not starting.  But they have depth, which is weird to say in November.  So unless you’re adding to the top of the list, why bother?  The Sox dont need more names at the middle or the bottom…

Yes.

My guess is Fitts and Criswell begin in the pen.

I also think we trade 1 SP'er- maybe 2 in the package(s) for a #2SP and or someone like K Marte.

Duran & Crawford for K Marte?

Campbell, Harrison & Sandlin for Ryan?

2 log jams cleared up.

Posted
2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes.

My guess is Fitts and Criswell begin in the pen.

I also think we trade 1 SP'er- maybe 2 in the package(s) for a #2SP and or someone like K Marte.

Duran & Crawford for K Marte?

Campbell, Harrison & Sandlin for Ryan?

2 log jams cleared up.

Outside of Cro Man, and Bello there are no other starters locked into the rotation at this early juncture. So many different possibilities.

Posted
1 minute ago, Old Red said:

Outside of Cro Man, and Bello there are no other starters locked into the rotation at this early juncture. So many different possibilities.

Usually, it's not a good thing not knowing who your last 3 SP'ers will be. Hopefully we add a Joe Ryan type and need just 2 slots filled. This situation is unique, IMO, because I trust we can find 2 more-than-capable SP'ers from our depth to fill the 4-5 slots.

I would not be surprised, at all, if our 4-5-6 starters are among the top 5 in MLB, next year.

Posted
1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Outside of Cro Man, and Bello there are no other starters locked into the rotation at this early juncture. So many different possibilities.

If the Red Sox can’t get someone younger, and better don’t bother. 

It feels like these two posts are in conflict each other.  I'm in the camp of acquiring a #2 or even a #1, and would put real prospects on the table.  And maybe even sign a good #4.  For the fans that want to go in-house if we can't get a #2, that won't work.  That would leave us with:

  • Crochet
  • Bello
  • Sandoval
  • Early
  • Tolle

We would struggle to play .500.

Posted
24 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

If the Red Sox can’t get someone younger, and better don’t bother. 

It feels like these two posts are in conflict each other.  I'm in the camp of acquiring a #2 or even a #1, and would put real prospects on the table.  And maybe even sign a good #4.  For the fans that want to go in-house if we can't get a #2, that won't work.  That would leave us with:

  • Crochet
  • Bello
  • Sandoval
  • Early
  • Tolle

We would struggle to play .500.

Someone younger, and better was directed as Kelley as a #2. Now if someone better, and younger was signed as a #2 Kelley would be fine further down the totem pole. Sandoval, Eary, or Tolle are no sure things to be in the rotation to start the season, but as we’ve seen the last few years 10 starters might not be enough to get through the season.

Posted
18 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Someone younger, and better was directed as Kelley as a #2.

But the point being that we need some reliability in the rotation.  I'd like to acquire Greene, Chandler, Burns, Lodolo, or maybe several others.  But if we don't land any of those guys, we still need a reliable SP.

Posted
3 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

But the point being that we need some reliability in the rotation.  I'd like to acquire Greene, Chandler, Burns, Lodolo, or maybe several others.  But if we don't land any of those guys, we still need a reliable SP.

I get your point, but to me if the Red Sox don’t acquire a solid#2, or a couple of big bats will be, because they really don’t want to, because of the money involved, or giving up a live body, or two.

Posted
1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

If the Red Sox can’t get someone younger, and better don’t bother. 

It feels like these two posts are in conflict each other.  I'm in the camp of acquiring a #2 or even a #1, and would put real prospects on the table.  And maybe even sign a good #4.  For the fans that want to go in-house if we can't get a #2, that won't work.  That would leave us with:

  • Crochet
  • Bello
  • Sandoval
  • Early
  • Tolle

We would struggle to play .500.

to me #2SP (more like a one than a three) and a big bopper are top priorities.

a second big bat may be enough to put us over the top.

Posted
9 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

After 2019, we won 84 games, had the highest payroll in BB, and the worst farm.  Even for rich teams, sometimes you cycles where all your young guys are starting to get paid real money, and all the older guys with big contracts, are starting to decline.  We needed a re-boot.

Absolutely. We're there now so time to put the foot down again.

Posted
15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Well said. Next step in this thinking, which move/contract was most instrumental in causing the financial burden while offering little hope of producing near his cost?

It was the largest and longest free agent contract in Red Sox history. (Okay, Manny's was a year longer, but he was pre JH. Carl Crawford was equally as long at 7 years) but nobody was Larger and Longer. It was David Price- the guy we ended up attaching to the Betts trade, which was the clear sign the team was punting, especially when we have yet to replace his production value.

I'm pretty sure JH told himself, "never again." The Sale extension pales in comparison to Price. The JD, Story and Yoshida deals, too. The Devers extension was larger and longer, and we see what JH ended up doing with that contract, less than 2 years into the 10 year deal. (Okay, it was Brez not JH, but you know JH gave his stamp of approval.)

What remains to be seen is do we replace the Devers value, along with Bregman's and Gio's, too. Just how Large and how Long will JH approve? I think age has a lot to do with it as Devers was young and Crochet's 6 year deal was approved at a young age, too. There are not many young free agents out there. Five or six years might be pushing it, and many of the very best FAs get 7 or more. If we do spend big, and that is no given, and we don't go large and long, the usually leads to quantity over quality, to some extent, and in my opinion we have the "quantity" well covered already and need to add some serious star quality to the 26. I've said 3, and if we go 4-5 instead, and the budget was fixed, it will likely mean lower quality, shorter deals and kicking some major decisions down the road.

One thing that could happen is that older FAs like Schwarber can be signed for less than 7 years, but his age is big stumbling block to go 6 years or maybe even 5. Alonso turns 31, and maybe nobody offers him 7 years- maybe not even 6. Bregman turns 32 before the season, so I doubt we go 5 with him- maybe not even 4. Bichette fits the age range (turns 28 before the season) but does not give us the power bat we need. He might be a great secondary signing, but are we really going to sign someone to 7 years that isn't even "the guy" we need most?

We could trade for Ketel Marte, who is 32 and under control for a few more years, but then we lose some serious talent going to AZ. E Suarez is 34 and may not deliver the production we need for the next 3-4 years. He will likely sign for 3-5 years. Polanco is 32 and there are worries that 2025 was an outlier season. He may get 3-5 years or take a huge one year deal like Bregman to try and make big the following winter.

There are a lot of considerations going on. This should be an interesting Sox winter.

I think it goes back further than Price. You had Sandoval and Ramirez - both of which were disastrous contracts. Add in Castillo and even Pedey's to a degree at the end there, and you've got a poor track record before you get to Price. 

Then you've got Sale's extension, and Story's and Masa's deals that really hurt this club in terms of building a contender with what we got from them. It just took too much out of the payroll with too little coming back.

They're almost out of that hole now with a much stronger farm system and money to spend, so hopefully we're on the uptick, it certainly feels that way. But I do think they will be cautious about adding long term and big deals again because they've ben routinely burned by them. They'll do one, but two is feeling more and more unlikely. Unless they target Marte, who while on a longish deal, is very reasonable LT wise, especially in comparison to his production.

I think the one thing they will want is to avoid being a team that has too many DH's. And these long terms deals for multiple players usually ends up right at that point.

Posted
16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Kelly may be borderline #2.

I think Breslow would prefer if Kelly was his 3 and someone younger with a higher whiff rate as his 2. 

Posted
14 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

After 2019, we won 84 games, had the highest payroll in BB, and the worst farm.  Even for rich teams, sometimes you cycles where all your young guys are starting to get paid real money, and all the older guys with big contracts, are starting to decline.  We needed a re-boot.

Two years later, they were in the ALCS without really adding to the team though. Seems like they just needed to run it back? 

Posted
4 hours ago, Hitch said:

I think it goes back further than Price. You had Sandoval and Ramirez - both of which were disastrous contracts. Add in Castillo and even Pedey's to a degree at the end there, and you've got a poor track record before you get to Price. 

🥸

Posted
4 hours ago, Hitch said:

I think it goes back further than Price. You had Sandoval and Ramirez - both of which were disastrous contracts. Add in Castillo and even Pedey's to a degree at the end there, and you've got a poor track record before you get to Price. 

Then you've got Sale's extension, and Story's and Masa's deals that really hurt this club in terms of building a contender with what we got from them. It just took too much out of the payroll with too little coming back.

You build a good case for not blowing big bucks on guys who as a majority are busts.

Even the good signings brought issues, like JD, who we were hoping would opt out so we could either keep Mookie or Schwarber. I personally was all in on the Eovaldi signing, and during his time here I thought he was our best overall starter (even though ERod had one really good year).

Breslow's big signings were ambivalent: $58 mil to Giolito and $40 mil to Bregman for one decent year apiece... and if the latter signs elsewhere, then we lost Raffy, our top power source this decade, for basically nada.

Who was the last good free agent who signed in Boston when we could feel secure that he'd be one of ours for the long haul? Manny... a quarter century ago?!?!?!

Posted
1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

You build a good case for not blowing big bucks on guys who as a majority are busts.

Even the good signings brought issues, like JD, who we were hoping would opt out so we could either keep Mookie or Schwarber. I personally was all in on the Eovaldi signing, and during his time here I thought he was our best overall starter (even though ERod had one really good year).

Breslow's big signings were ambivalent: $58 mil to Giolito and $40 mil to Bregman for one decent year apiece... and if the latter signs elsewhere, then we lost Raffy, our top power source this decade, for basically nada.

Who was the last good free agent who signed in Boston when we could feel secure that he'd be one of ours for the long haul? Manny... a quarter century ago?!?!?!

And even Manny was dealt before his deal finished. (He came closer than others.)

$217/7 Price 2016 -lasted 4 seasons (traded)

$160M/8 Manny 2001- lasted 7.5 years (traded)

$142M/7 Crawford 2011-lasted 2 seasons (traded then 4 w LAD then gone)

$140M/6 Story 2022- TBD on lasting

$120M/3 Bregman 2025 -opted out

$110M/5 JD 2018- LASTED WHOLE TERM

$95M/5 Sandoval 2015- lasted 2.5 years (DFA'd)

$88M/4 HRam 2015- lasted 3.5 years (DFA'd)

$83M/5 Lackey 2010- lasted 4.5 years (traded)

$70M/5 JD Drew 2007- LASTED WHOLE TERM (retired)

$68M/4 Nate 2019- LASTED WHOLE TERM

$40M/4 Renteria 2005- lasted 1 year (traded)

Hitch is right: it goes back long before Price and even to Manny, who came before JH & Co.

This list is scary enough to see why JH has his doubts about long term deals, and unless we can start having a better record of outcomes with these types of signings, maybe we will continue not seeing too many of them.

I hope not!

Even if you look at our shorter/high AAV deals, our recent success has not been any better:

Breggie worked out fine, despite missing time.

Buehler was a $21M bust (highest AAV given to a FA pitcher since Price.)

There were Kluber, Richards and others who were not real high AAVs. We did have some successes, like with Beltre.

 

Posted

Besides Beltre, the longterm signings that should-have-been go all the way back to free agent infancy: Fisk and Lynn.

Extending two more Hall of Famers at market prices so they could play for the Sox through the entire decade of the 1980s... who knows what would've happened in those playoff years.

And don't be tempted to cite Lynn's WAR through the 80s accomplished for all those other clubs that didn't play half their games at Fenway Park. The consensus has always been that had Lynn continued to feast off the Green Monster -- where his career slash line was .420-.601-1.021 -- he wouldn't have to pay his way to Cooperstown.

Posted
23 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Besides Beltre, the longterm signings that should-have-been go all the way back to free agent infancy: Fisk and Lynn.

Extending two more Hall of Famers at market prices so they could play for the Sox through the entire decade of the 1980s... who knows what would've happened in those playoff years.

And don't be tempted to cite Lynn's WAR through the 80s accomplished for all those other clubs that didn't play half their games at Fenway Park. The consensus has always been that had Lynn continued to feast off the Green Monster -- where his career slash line was .420-.601-1.021 -- he wouldn't have to pay his way to Cooperstown.

But if the Sox never trade Lynn, we would be without all those heartwarming memories created by Frank Tanana, Jim Dorsey and The Return of the (Joe) Rudi…

Posted
On 11/13/2025 at 12:23 PM, notin said:

And Casas at 1b?

If he’s healthy, he makes for a good solution.  If…

Sox probably feel they can do for Williams what they did for Chapman and make a super bullpen to shorten the game. I think there are much greater needs.

Posted
On 11/26/2025 at 9:38 AM, notin said:

But if the Sox never trade Lynn, we would be without all those heartwarming memories created by Frank Tanana, Jim Dorsey and The Return of the (Joe) Rudi…

Well, Jimmy Dorsey was a big band leader, but not as famous as younger brother Tommy... whose biggest single was the #1 hit in 1940 titled "I'll Never Smile Again." 

Tommy's nickname was the Sentimental Gentleman of Swing, which contemporary Ted Williams had to hate -- "GENTLEman?!? Swing hard, in case the pitch hits your f***ing bat!" -- and explains why he never smiled again.

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