Article: Boston Red Sox Offseason Target: OF Cody Bellinger

[Jordan Leandre]

While it's hard to fathom the Boston Red Sox be interested in the services of an outfielder this winter, New York Yankees utility man Cody Bellinger makes a lot of sense.

The 30-year-old rebounded for the second time in three seasons, slashing .272/.334/.480 with 4.9 fWAR in 152 games. He also clubbed 29 home runs, his most since winning National League Most Valuable Player in 2019, and drove in 98 runs. While not Juan Soto, he did an admirable job replacing the Dominican outfielder in the lineup, along with center fielder Trent Grisham.

But how does he make sense for the Red Sox? After all, they're not exactly starving for outfielders, much less lefty hitters even after the trading of Rafael Devers in June.

The Good

One thing that often plagued the Red Sox offense in 2025, and even in years prior, was striking out. With runners in scoring position, they were tied for the sixth-highest strikeout rate in the majors at 22.7 percent. With the bases loaded and less than two outs, that strikeout rate climbed to 26.3 percent.

However, Bellinger was one of the hardest guys to strike out in the majors in 2025. Among 145 qualified hitters, he ranked 16th-best in strikeout rate at 13.7 percent. Moreover, he did a solid job of taking walks, which is not always a guarantee with guys who don't strike out (see: Luis Arraez). 

Having a balance of bat-to-ball and command of the strike zone is something that drew the Red Sox to players such as Alex Bregman, even if there was a bit more of swinging and missing to his game in 2025. While contact isn't always a point of emphasis for offenses, Bellinger isn't exactly a "bat-to-ball over power" player, as his 29 home runs (and 98 RBIs) would've led Boston in 2025. He also hits lefties well, so there are no real platoon concerns for Bellinger. In 176 plate appearances against southpaws, he slashed .353/.415/.601 with a 180 wRC+ and more walks than strikeouts. This marks the second time in three seasons he's dominated lefties; the year he didn't, he still hit .298 against them, just without power. 

Bellinger also plays a very good corner outfield, posting 15 Defensive Runs Saved and six Outs Above Average across nearly 1,000 defensive innings at a corner outfield spot. He also has a strong throwing arm, ranking in the 83rd percentile for arm strength. He even played a smattering of innings at first base in 2025, with a not-so-insignificant amount of playing time there in his career.

Should Boston opt to go with the in-house options at first base instead of paying a king's ransom for Pete Alonso, Bellinger can play first base against lefties with Nate Eaton or Rob Refsnyder (free agent) factoring into the outfield.

The veteran also has tons of experience playing in big markets. Before the Yankees, the outfielder spent two years with the Chicago Cubs; before that, six years with the Los Angeles Dodgers. He's seen it all in those markets: coming up short in October, winning it all (albeit in the COVID-shortened 2020 season), missing the postseason, winning individual awards, and having disastrous seasons whether health-related or performance-based.

The Bad

As mentioned before, Bellinger is an outfielder by trade. While they could pursue him as a first base option, he'll garner enough interest as an outfielder to likely prevent a marriage from happening.

As a result, it would somewhat force the Red Sox to move multiple outfielders this offseason and, given the 30-year-old's strong defensive track record in recent years, it would pretty much seal the fate of Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu. If Hunter Greene is available, trading that pair might be easier than expected, but who knows if he really can be had until he's actually traded?

Moreover, it's been a 50-50 shot the past four years that Bellinger actually contributes significant value. Before that stretch, he posted -1.0 fWAR and a 47 wRC+ in 95 games in 2021. Is someone with such topsy turvy results annually worth over $30 million a year, as projected on Spotrac?

Lastly, and it's kind of ironic given what makes a hitter successful in 2025, but his pulled fly ball rate is very high. In 2025, he ranked in the top 25 among lefty hitters in pulled fly ball rate, with the only Red Sox hitter ahead of him being Abreu. While he was only a tenth of a percent behind Duran for opposite-field air percentage, there's real cause to believe playing 81 games at Fenway Park would negatively impact Bellinger's power numbers.

Granted, he'd also have 81 games on the road, with varying ballpark dimensions, but it's not a hot take to say he's not a tailor-made fit for Fenway.

The Verdict

Bellinger is quietly becoming a personal favorite of mine for the Red Sox this offseason, but there's probably too many moving parts for this to work.

Not only that, but there's going to be significant interest in Bellinger's services this winter. Not only within the division with his most-recent team in the Yankees, but other outfield-hungry teams such as the Cleveland Guardians, Toronto Blue Jays, and *cough cough* the Los Angeles Dodgers, if they're willing to take a risk on the guy they non-tendered three years ago.

I just don't see it in Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow's best interest to get involved in a bidding war for a position he doesn't necessarily need to fill, even if they trade Duran and Abreu. He'd be a great piece to have in the middle of the lineup, but Cody Bellinger's future probably resides outside of Boston.

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[TedYazPapiMookie]

Wow.  What a ridiculous idea.  Bellinger has sucked most of his career and with a breakout in 2019 then three bad years then a good 2023 a bad 2024 and a decent 2025 leading to a 120 OPS+.  His value is less than Bregman's but his price is higher.  A complete waste.  He belongs in LA or NY.  He needs high profile places and won't fit in a smaller market like Boston.

Oh yeah and we have three 1Bs, and a half dozen outfielders so why not get a guy that plays the two positions and hasn't earned his money except in 2019 which was 6 years and 7 years before 2026.

Boston has three simple acquisitions:

1 - A right-handed #2 Starting Pitcher (Bieber in trade or at $25 Million if a FA)

2 - A 3B which means give Bregman another year at $40 or go get Suarez for $15 Million.

3 - A C which mean Realmuto for $13 Million

No need to overthink this off season.

[moonslav59]

Bellinger is worth more as an OF'er to another team than us as 1Bman.

Even if we trade 2 OF'ers, I doubt we sign him.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

No need to underthink 3 - A C which mean Realmuto for $13 Million

No need to overthink this off season.

No need to underthink this.

Our 1B need, including depth far exceeds the need for Realmuto.

Choose one from 4 choices...

Bregman (3B) & E Suarez (1B/3B)

E Suarez (3B) & Alonso (1B)

Bichette (2B) & Alonso (1B) w Mayer going to 3B from 2B/SS.

Bichette (2B) and E Suarez (1B/3B)

Plus...

Trade for a #2 SP.

Anything less is status quo and a wasted of a window season.

 

[JoeBrady]

I'll put this in the Realmuto category of "anything can happen, but is extremely unlikely".

[notin]

I don’t think Bellinger is a good fit, unless you’re a fan of swings and misses.  And he really does make more sense for a team looking for an OF.

Most likely the Yankees bring back one of him or Trent Grisham…

[notin]

44 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I'll put this in the Realmuto category of "anything can happen, but is extremely unlikely".

I think a catcher upgrade is on the Sox radar, but Whats left of Realmuto might not be much of one…

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

I think a catcher upgrade is on the Sox radar, but Whats left of Realmuto might not be much of one…

I think we may just add one more MiLB depth signing at catcher. 

We have bigger needs. Much bigger.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

No need to underthink this.

Our 1B need, including depth far exceeds the need for Realmuto.

Choose one from 4 choices...

Bregman (3B) & E Suarez (1B/3B)

E Suarez (3B) & Alonso (1B)

Bichette (2B) & Alonso (1B) w Mayer going to 3B from 2B/SS.

Bichette (2B) and E Suarez (1B/3B)

Plus...

Trade for a #2 SP.

Anything less is status quo and a wasted of a window season.

 

I have serious doubts the Sox plan to spend that kind of money in free agency.  If they sign one of Alonso, Bregman, Bichette, that would probably be it. (And it will probably be Bregman.)  And Suarez on top of that?  Not holding my breath.  
 

I think they max out at Bregman and a Bell/Hoskins type…

[notin]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think we may just add one more MiLB depth signing at catcher. 

We have bigger needs. Much bigger.

Maybe they re-investigate Dalton Rushing?

I wouldn’t mind Seán Murphy, but so far, I’m the only one connecting them to him.

Most likely they bring back Wong or get one of the Fungibles - Nido, Stallings, Haase, etc…

[notin]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think we may just add one more MiLB depth signing at catcher. 

We have bigger needs. Much bigger.

Just because they have bigger needs doesn’t mean they should or will ignore the smaller ones.

No one got excited the signing of Abraham Toro last year.  Heck I doubt anyone even mentioned it after the day it happened.  But Toro played more games at 1b last year than anyone else in a Red Sox uniform (Boston only) on that 89-win playoff team.  And Toro certainly had his moments.  More of them than Wong, who many want back immediately.

Also they already added catching depth on an MiLB deal two days ago…

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

I have serious doubts the Sox plan to spend that kind of money in free agency.  If they sign one of Alonso, Bregman, Bichette, that would probably be it. (And it will probably be Bregman.)  And Suarez on top of that?  Not holding my breath.  
 

I think they max out at Bregman and a Bell/Hoskins type…

I agree on this. If the Red Sox get Bregman to stay hopefully no more than 4 years I think that would be the extent of anymore high money expenditures. Bichette’s contract most likely would be to long, and expensive.

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, notin said:

I have serious doubts the Sox plan to spend that kind of money in free agency.  If they sign one of Alonso, Bregman, Bichette, that would probably be it. (And it will probably be Bregman.)  And Suarez on top of that?  Not holding my breath.  
 

I think they max out at Bregman and a Bell/Hoskins type…

If they have $45M, they might be able to get Suarez for $14-5M AAV x 2-3 yrs- maybe $13-14M, if we go 3-4 yrs. I don't think Alonso gets much more than $30M AAV. We may have to go an extra year or lower the AAV with an option year with buyout, but I think we can get two for $45M. If we trade Duran for Losolo, we'll save $3.5M. We could also look to trade Hicks + $4M x 2 years and save $8M.

If we trade Bello or Campbell, we'd save more AAV.

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I agree on this. If the Red Sox get Bregman to stay hopefully no more than 4 years I think that would be the extent of anymore high money expenditures. Bichette’s contract most likely would be to long, and expensive.

I do not think we spend large and long one 2 players, as well. I won't be surprised if we don't go L & L on anyone.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

If they have $45M, they might be able to get Suarez for $14-5M AAV x 2-3 yrs- maybe $13-14M, if we go 3-4 yrs. I don't think Alonso gets much more than $30M AAV. We may have to go an extra year or lower the AAV with an option year with buyout, but I think we can get two for $45M. If we trade Duran for Losolo, we'll save $3.5M. We could also look to trade Hicks + $4M x 2 years and save $8M.

If we trade Bello or Campbell, we'd save more AAV.

If the Sox have $45mill to spend, there is a 0% chance they spend it all on two players.  Especially if that figure has to include arbitration raises.

I do have my doubts they deal Hicks.  He was the one player from the Devers trade Breslow talked up.  And maybe if no one foolishly tries to make him a stater, he can return to being the decent RP he was on St. Louis, occasionally once again touching 105 mph on the radar gun. (That is not a typo.)

I’m hoping the Sox are not so dumb as to trade a former consensus top 5 prospect and AL Rookie if the Month simply because he struggled for 100 PA…

 

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

If the Sox have $45mill to spend, there is a 0% chance they spend it all on two players.  Especially if that figure has to include arbitration raises.

I do have my doubts they deal Hicks.  He was the one player from the Devers trade Breslow talked up.  And maybe if no one foolishly tries to make him a stater, he can return to being the decent RP he was on St. Louis, occasionally once again touching 105 mph on the radar gun. (That is not a typo.)

I’m hoping the Sox are not so dumb as to trade a former consensus top 5 prospect and AL Rookie if the Month simply because he struggled for 100 PA…

 

I doubt they deal Hicks, because I don’t see anyone else wanting him, and he was a salary dump for SF. If Campbell gets traded I don’t think it would be, because he was rushed up to Boston, and struggled after early success. He’s a man without a position, and if traded hopefully the trade brings back pitching.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, notin said:

If the Sox have $45mill to spend, there is a 0% chance they spend it all on two players.  Especially if that figure has to include arbitration raises.

I do have my doubts they deal Hicks.  He was the one player from the Devers trade Breslow talked up.  And maybe if no one foolishly tries to make him a stater, he can return to being the decent RP he was on St. Louis, occasionally once again touching 105 mph on the radar gun. (That is not a typo.)

I’m hoping the Sox are not so dumb as to trade a former consensus top 5 prospect and AL Rookie if the Month simply because he struggled for 100 PA…

 

I accept the fact that the Sox will not spend the money as I suggest.

I also doubt they trade any top prospects.

I give my suggestions, anyway.

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, notin said:

I don’t think Bellinger is a good fit, unless you’re a fan of swings and misses.  And he really does make more sense for a team looking for an OF.

Most likely the Yankees bring back one of him or Trent Grisham…

I'm also not a fan of pull heavy LHB for Fenway. Doesn't seem like a good fit for BOS.

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

If the Sox have $45mill to spend, there is a 0% chance they spend it all on two players.  Especially if that figure has to include arbitration raises.

Only 45M? Must be the rising construction costs for all the non-baseball activities FSG has going on around Fenway holding payroll down! 

[notin]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I doubt they deal Hicks, because I don’t see anyone else wanting him, and he was a salary dump for SF. If Campbell gets traded I don’t think it would be, because he was rushed up to Boston, and struggled after early success. He’s a man without a position, and if traded hopefully the trade brings back pitching.

I only see Hicks moving if the Sox are taking back significant salary.  I could see teams wanting him, but not for $25mill over 2 years.

The only Hicks deal I’ve thrown out there was to Atlanta for Sean Murphy (3 yrs $45mill).  Atlanta has shown they like Drake Baldwin playing every day, but that doesn’t mean they want to unload Murphy…

[moonslav59]

Just now, notin said:

I only see Hicks moving if the Sox are taking back significant salary.  I could see teams wanting him, but not for $25mill over 2 years.

The only Hicks deal I’ve thrown out there was to Atlanta for Sean Murphy (3 yrs $45mill).  Atlanta has shown they like Drake Baldwin playing every day, but that didn’t mean they want to unload Murphy…

Agreed, and my suggested trade included money and prospects.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Only 45M? Must be the rising construction costs for all the non-baseball activities FSG has going on around Fenway holding payroll down! 

$45M is getting close to the non reset line. We have no way of knowing they closely approach it or surpass it.

[notin]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm also not a fan of pull heavy LHB for Fenway. Doesn't seem like a good fit for BOS.

Yeah it ruined Williams, Yastrzemski, Ortiz, Vaughn, etc…

[mvp 78]

39 minutes ago, notin said:

I only see Hicks moving if the Sox are taking back significant salary.  I could see teams wanting him, but not for $25mill over 2 years.

The only Hicks deal I’ve thrown out there was to Atlanta for Sean Murphy (3 yrs $45mill).  Atlanta has shown they like Drake Baldwin playing every day, but that doesn’t mean they want to unload Murphy…

If the Sox wanted to deal Hicks this offseason, he needed to turn his season around at some point. It never happened. I think they are stuck with him this year. Maybe in season phantom IL/DFA or trade next offseason?

[Hugh2]

The Sox should have more than 45 to spend, unless of course they're paying Lowe/Hendricks....which ain't happening. 

[mvp 78]

40 minutes ago, notin said:

Yeah it ruined Williams, Yastrzemski, Ortiz, Vaughn, etc…

I don't see Williams's spray chart anywhere. Got a link? I do remember them adding a bullpen to help Williams though!

Ortiz's career pull % was 33% with a ton of power.

Naylor is 35% with much less power. Bellinger is 37%. Schwarber is 40%, but maybe has the power to overcome how deep the fence is. 

[mvp 78]

FWIW, Bellinger's career tOPS+ at Fenway is 72, Naylor's is 91 and Schwarber's is 167.

[notin]

52 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

The Sox should have more than 45 to spend, unless of course they're paying Lowe/Hendricks....which ain't happening. 

Of course, how much they have to spend and how much they are willing to spend are, in all likelihood, two very different numbers...

[notin]

45 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't see Williams's spray chart anywhere. Got a link? I do remember them adding a bullpen to help Williams though!

Ortiz's career pull % was 33% with a ton of power.

Naylor is 35% with much less power. Bellinger is 37%. Schwarber is 40%, but maybe has the power to overcome how deep the fence is. 

Fangraphs only has pull data for Mo Vaughn from his time with the Mets, but it was 50.7%. by then...

[TheoBallgame9]

Another "expert" telling RS Nation that all we need is ANOTHER LEFTY outfielder in possibly the most right-handed park in MLB. What we need is a right handed power hitter, a number 2 starter, and the kids to improve.