Article: Rhys Hoskins Is the Cheap First Base Solution Red Sox Need

[Maddie Landis]

I’d love a Lavender Lamborghini. Unfortunately, my current financial situation doesn’t allow for one. I have priorities and expenses to consider. Most of the time, you have to choose practically over what you want. That’s reminiscent of what the Red Sox are going through in deciding which free agents to pursue this offseason.

In 2025, the revolving door of Red Sox first basemen posted 0.5 total fWAR, 22nd in the league. For the second consecutive season, Triston Casas (.182/.277/.302, 56 wRC+, -0.6 fWAR) suffered a catastrophic injury, leaving the team with a hole at first and the lineup devoid of a power bat—one that desperately needed thump following the Rafael Devers trade. 

The Red Sox’s woes at first base were brought to light in the postseason. While Romy González  (.305/.343/.483, 123 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR) and Nathaniel Lowe (.280/.370/.420, 114 wRC+ split with the Red Sox) posted competent offensive metrics in the regular season, they went a combined 0-16 during the American League Wild Card series. González should be a bench player, but was forced into an everyday role due to injuries. In mid-August, Lowe was designated for assignment by the Nationals, went unclaimed on waivers, and signed a one-year deal with the Red Sox. He committed a costly error in the winner-take-all final game of the Wild Card series.

With Alex Bregman opting out of his contract and (hopefully temporarily) coming off the Red Sox’s 2026 payroll, the team’s projection drops to $218.92 million. This leaves them $25.08 million to spend before the first competitive balance tax threshold of $244 million in 2026. 

Going back to my opening metaphor, Pete Alonso represents a Lavender Lamborghini in the Red Sox’s offseason. Alonso (.272/.347/.524, 141 wRC+, 3.6 fWAR) is expected to opt out of his contract with the New York Mets and is reportedly seeking a seven-year deal in free agency. To his credit, he has remained healthy throughout his career. Over the past two years, Alonso has played complete 162-game seasons at first base. Barring the shortened 2020 pandemic season, he has never hit below 30 home runs. He's also improved dramatically on his strikeout problems since a high rate in his rookie year (26.4%).

Alonso is a pull-heavy (41.1% career pull rate) powerful righty whose swing would fare well at Fenway. His batting profile suggests he won’t regress at the plate in the future. His 93.5 mph average exit velocity (seventh in MLB) and 89 barrels (third in MLB) were the highest of his career. On the field, Alonso’s defense is subpar. His -9 outs above average in 2025, the worst figure of his career, was in the second percentile.

Alonso’s asking price is steep. He has every right to hold himself to a high standard, but it’s unusual for him to be seeking such a lengthy contract, especially since he’ll be entering his age-31 season next year. Matt Olson’s 8-year, $168 million contract would be the closest comparable to what Alonso is asking for. However, Olson signed the deal at age 28. In 2019, Paul Goldschmidt, then 31, signed a 5-year, $130 million extension with the Cardinals. Olson is an athletic first baseman (as was Goldschmidt in his prime), and he (two) and Goldschmidt (three) had won multiple Gold Glove Awards before their extensions. 

Shelling out anything similar to a one-dimensional player is a waste of resources. This is just my personal opinion, but when you’re signing position players to multi-year, high-AAV contracts, they need to be at least average defensively. Consider Rafael Devers, Nick Castellanos, and Juan Soto’s contracts—all are great hitters, to be sure, but they don't have a high floor to fall back on when their bat wanes through slumps. While Alonso would add much-needed power to the Red Sox’s lineup, I’d rather see the team focus its resources on re-signing Alex Bregman and acquiring a No. 2 starter. 

Thus, I come to you with the notion that Rhys Hoskins is a cheaper option that the Red Sox should pursue at first base. Hoskins signed a two-year contract with the Milwaukee Brewers and has an $18 million mutual option for the 2026 season. Given Andrew Vaughn’s surprising turnaround with the Brewers, the team is expected to decline Hoskins’ option. Vaughn enters his third year of arbitration this offseason and will earn less than Hoskins' mutual option in 2026. 

Hoskins’ career slash line at Fenway is .300/.600/1.112 OPS (197 wRC+). With a 32.6% pull air rate (ranked third among right-handed hitters since 2024), his swing is perfect for the Green Monster. I created the following visualization of Hoskins' home runs hit at home over the past two years with an overlay at Fenway Park. Had he played with the Red Sox, he would have added approximately 19 home runs, bringing his total to 57 home runs, which would be tied for third with his old teammate, Bryce Harper.
 

Hoskins was injured this year, so he shouldn’t come with a crazy asking price. He also isn’t a defensive wizard like Matt Olson. He posted one OAA through 670.2 innings this season. His career total is -13 OAA. [For reference, Alonso’s is -32.] The catch is that the Red Sox wouldn’t be tied to his defense on a lengthy, high-AAV contract.

Then there’s the Triston Casas question. His future remains uncertain due to his injury history. In 2024 and 2025, the Red Sox were forced to scramble early in the season to find a replacement for Casas. To avoid a similar situation, they should conduct thorough due diligence in the offseason. If Casas is healthy at the start of the 2026 season, Hoskins would likely serve as a right-handed platoon bat, but that’s a big “if”. Plus, the Red Sox already have a right-handed platoon bat in Romy González. I like González, and his defensive versatility has been invaluable to the team. However, despite his elite exit velocity and hard hit rate, he’s only hit 15 home runs in the past two seasons. The team needs power, and González still has not proven he can unlock that potential. 

The depth of the Red Sox’s bench has been a key to their success, but I wonder if a shakeup is needed to propel them further in the postseason next year. Nick Sogard posted the seventh-highest WPA of 0.16 in the Wild Card round of the 2025 postseason. As a switch-hitter with defensive versatility, he’d likely be a permanent bench piece on almost any other team. It might be time to promote Sogard to a full-time role on the bench and move on from González, who could be packaged in a trade for a No. 2 starter. 

The easiest route for the Red Sox to add power to their lineup presents itself at first base (Munetaka Murakami is another high-profile player that the Red Sox could pursue). On top of acquiring a No. 2 starter, whether by trade or in free agency, re-signing Alex Bregman should be a priority for the Red Sox. The organization possesses the financial means to keep Bregman and make significant upgrades at first base and in the rotation, but recent offseasons suggest they may not be willing to splurge heavily. Signing big-name free agents isn’t the best strategy for long-term financial health and roster construction; just look at the Phillies’ current predicament. Alternatively, Rhys Hoskins is an affordable first-base option who provides a strong middle-of-the-order presence with the kind of right-handed power the Sox are seeking.

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[Randy Red Sox]

John Henry is all about affordable

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

John Henry is all about affordable

He did just recently give Devers $300M/10, Bregman $40M AAV -both Sox records, plus a huge extensions to Crochet & Anthony and $21M for Buehler and $19M for Sandoval.

I'm not predicting anything major, but we might sign one big deal and then go "affordable" on guys like Hoskins.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

He did just recently give Devers $300M/10, Bregman $40M AAV -both Sox records, plus a huge extensions to Crochet & Anthony and $21M for Buehler and $19M for Sandoval.

I'm not predicting anything major, but we might sign one big deal and then go "affordable" on guys like Hoskins.

The easiest predictions are often reunions, especially for teams coming off seasons in which they were successful.  So it shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Sox sign Bregman and/or Giolito.  If they do bring back Bregman, then an affordable RHH 1b/DH type is more likely.  That puts Hoskins on the radar.

My only question would be - is Hoskins a better option than Josh Bell?  Bell’s StatCast profile was extremely impressive.  It didn’t translate to a superior season stat-wise but that can change for a guy clearly thumping the baseball the way he was.  I spent half of July promoting another StatCast hero whose baseball card stats looked weak - 4’2” Andrew Vaughn.  Vaughn did get traded and suddenly looked like the second coming of Jimmie Foxx, albeit an action figure-sized one.

One thing that MIGHT work against Bell is he is not a true right-handed hitter.  He’s a switch hitter whose best numbers come from the left side of the plate.  But I’m not so certain that’s a deal breaker…

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

He did just recently give Devers $300M/10, Bregman $40M AAV -both Sox records, plus a huge extensions to Crochet & Anthony and $21M for Buehler and $19M for Sandoval.

I'm not predicting anything major, but we might sign one big deal and then go "affordable" on guys like Hoskins.

but....the Red Sox Payroll/Revenue is 23rd in the league at 42.1% The Colorado Rockies spend a higher percentage of their revenue on payroll than the tightwad POS you keep defending.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

The easiest predictions are often reunions, especially for teams coming off seasons in which they were successful.  So it shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Sox sign Bregman and/or Giolito.  If they do, then an affordable RHH 1b/DH type is more likely.  That puts Hoskins on the radar.

My only question would be - is Hoskins a better option than Josh Bell?  Bell’s StatCast profile was extremely impressive.  It didn’t translate to a superior season stat-wise but that can change for a guy clearly thumping the baseball the way he was.  I spent half of July promoting another StatCast hero whose baseball card stats looked weak - 4’2” Andrew Vaughn.  Vaughn did get traded and suddenly looked like the second coming of Jimmie Foxx, albeit an action figure-sized one.

One thing that MIGHT work against Bell is he is not a true right-handed hitter.  He’s a switch hitter whose best numbers come from the left side of the plate.  But I’m not so certain that’s a deal breaker…

162-game averages

Bell 24 HR, 85 RBI, .786 OPS, 18.6% K-rate

Rhys 34 HR, 97 RBI, .820 OPS, 25% K-rate

BUT... in a 10-year career, Bell has only earned 8.7 WAR, while Hoskins has 12.1 WAR in eight years -- mainly because they've both had negative dWARs in every single season.

Yow... do we really want either to be our new first baseman?

 

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

but....the Red Sox Payroll/Revenue is 23rd in the league at 42.1% The Colorado Rockies spend a higher percentage of their revenue on payroll than the tightwad POS you keep defending.

I'm far from defending JH. I am just stating facts. He was not a "tightwad" last winter.

Subsequently, he dumped the Devers salary and Breggie opted out. The Buehler & Gio contracts came off the books, and we are back to square one, again with no idea how JH will spend, this winter.

That's not defending JH.

I have repeatedly said JH & Co, can spend way more and still make a "hefty profit." I am also aware of the fact that this is the way rich people make money.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

162-game averages

Bell 24 HR, 85 RBI, .786 OPS, 18.6% K-rate

Rhys 34 HR, 97 RBI, .820 OPS, 25% K-rate

BUT... in a 10-year career, Bell has only earned 8.7 WAR, while Hoskins has 12.1 WAR in eight years -- mainly because they've both had negative dWARs in every single season.

Yow... do we really want either to be our new first baseman?

 

When the other option is Casas, yes, both would be upgrades. (Casas should be DH competition with Masa.)

[notin]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

162-game averages

Bell 24 HR, 85 RBI, .786 OPS, 18.6% K-rate

Rhys 34 HR, 97 RBI, .820 OPS, 25% K-rate

BUT... in a 10-year career, Bell has only earned 8.7 WAR, while Hoskins has 12.1 WAR in eight years -- mainly because they've both had negative dWARs in every single season.

Yow... do we really want either to be our new first baseman?

 

I think the preference is Alonso.  But if you want to avoid strikeouts and improve defense, he’s not the solution either.  If you want a guy who yells at pitchers after long foul balls and runs like a penguin on cocaine, Alonso is perfect for you.

Alonso reportedly wants 7 years.  At age 31, it seems unlikely anyone will give him that.  I think the only way he comes to Boston is if Bregman doesn’t return, although that on its own guarantees nothing.  

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Was just looking at another Sox site where fans are also speculating on the '26 batting order. The mediocrity being suggested is somnambulant. It drove me away in a somnambulance.

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm far from defending JH. I am just stating facts. He was not a "tightwad" last winter.

Subsequently, he dumped the Devers salary and Breggie opted out. The Buehler & Gio contracts came off the books, and we are back to square one, again with no idea how JH will spend, this winter.

That's not defending JH.

I have repeatedly said JH & Co, can spend way more and still make a "hefty profit." I am also aware of the fact that this is the way rich people make money.

The were 12th in payroll last season while 3rd in revenue. TIGHTWAD. 

[mvp 78]

Why not Hoskins, Alonso AND Bregman? 

[notin]

5 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Was just looking at another Sox site where fans are also speculating on the '26 batting order. The mediocrity being suggested is somnambulant. It drove me away in a somnambulance.

I’m curtailing any excitement over major acquisitions beyond returning players.

I love the idea of Ketel Marte, but it isn’t remotely likely.  I carry significant (and possibly justified) doubts about Alonso.  And I think I am more likely to play for the Sox than Kyle Tucker is, despite a talent gap best measured in light years.

So at this point, I expect any 2026 lineup to look unexciting at this point.   Of course I expect it to be an improvement of the postseason lineup that featured Romy Gonzalez and Nate Eaton on a regulated basis…

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The were 12th in payroll last season while 3rd in revenue. TIGHTWAD. 

I'm not denying that nor defending tighwadness.

[notin]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Why not Hoskins, Alonso AND Bregman? 

I have my doubts about Henry splurging for both Alonso and Bregman.  I’m probably not alone…

[moonslav59]

Just now, notin said:

I’m curtailing any excitement over major acquisitions beyond returning players.

I love the idea of Ketel Marte, but it isn’t remotely likely.  I carry significant (and possibly justified) doubts about Alonso.  And I think I am more likely to play for the Sox than Kyle Tucker is, despite a talent gap best measured in light years.

So at this point, I expect any 2026 lineup to look unexciting at this point.   Of course I expect it to be an improvement of the postseason lineup that featured Romy Gonzalez and Nate Eaton on a regulated basis…

It will come down to length of contracts, IMO.

We can replace Bregman's AAV with Alonso, but it won't be a one year deal.

Again, I'm not projecting any large and longs, but we can afford two or more.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

I have my doubts about Henry splurging for both Alonso and Bregman.  I’m probably not alone…

They can. They should! 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It will come down to length of contracts, IMO.

We can replace Bregman's AAV with Alonso, but it won't be a one year deal.

Again, I'm not projecting any large and longs, but we can afford two or more.

Replace, no! Add to, yes! 

[notin]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not denying that nor defending tighwadness.

I expect it.

I will say that those large and long contracts do often lead to ugly, detrimental contracts at some point.  And for players already over 30, you don’t always get the great years up front to justify them.  Even at his best years in Boston, David Price was NEVER the pitcher he was before coming here…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 minute ago, notin said:

So at this point, I expect any 2026 lineup to look unexciting at this point.   Of course I expect it to be an improvement of the postseason lineup that featured Romy Gonzalez and Nate Eaton on a regulated basis…

The '25 Red Sox' postseason lineup -- the most impotent playoff batting order in franchise history?

And before anybody says Roman, just remember both the '67 and '75 Sox were missing AL home run champs in Tony Conigliaro and Jim Rice and still had lineups so loaded they made it to Game Seven of the World Series.

[notin]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They can. They should! 

Just because they can and they should doesn’t mean they will.

As long as they win.  If they go cheap with Hoskins or Bell at 1b and it works, i won’t complain about not having Alonso around until he’s 38 years old and f***ing up the Sox chances of extending Mayer or whoever…

[notin]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The '25 Red Sox' postseason lineup -- the most impotent playoff batting order in franchise history?

And before anybody says Roman, just remember both the '67 and '75 Sox were missing AL home run champs in Tony Conigliaro and Jim Rice and still had lineups so loaded they made it to Game Seven of the World Series.

Well, back then you could go see a movie for 50 cents, a loaf of bread was free, and a Hall of Famer cost you $40,000…

[notin]

29 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Why not Hoskins, Alonso AND Bregman? 

Also, might as well bring it up but if the Sox sign both Alonso and Bregman, why exactly would they need Hoskins?

They still have Casas, and Yoshida isnt likely to go anywhere.  How many 1b/DH types should they squeeze on to the roster? And what position should they eliminate to do so?

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Was just looking at another Sox site where fans are also speculating on the '26 batting order. The mediocrity being suggested is somnambulant. It drove me away in a somnambulance.

This guys been on fire.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Also, might as well bring it up but if the Sox sign both Alonso and Bregman, why exactly would they need Hoskins?

They still have Casas, and Yoshida isnt likely to go anywhere.  How many 1b/DH types should they squeeze on to the roster? And what position should they eliminate to do so?

Bye Masa

[notin]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Bye Masa

Possible.  But do you think the Sox will (not can, not should, but will) DFA Yoshida and pay him $36.4mill, pay Alonso, pay Bregman, and then pay Hoskins and still offer arbitration to Casas?

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Possible.  But do you think the Sox will (not can, not should, but will) DFA Yoshida and pay him $36.4mill, pay Alonso, pay Bregman, and then pay Hoskins and still offer arbitration to Casas?

No, but they should. 

I think they'll try to re-sign Bregman and possibly fail. They'll have some excuse as to how the market surprised them or whatever. 

Probably just add a few low end relievers and a high injury risk starter. 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, notin said:

I expect it.

Agreed.

I'm expecting tightwadness, until proven otherwise.

Last winter got my hopes up, but as I've said before, we are back to square one after the Devers dump and Bregman bolt.

[Kimmi]

4 hours ago, notin said:

Just because they can and they should doesn’t mean they will.

As long as they win.  If they go cheap with Hoskins or Bell at 1b and it works, i won’t complain about not having Alonso around until he’s 38 years old and f***ing up the Sox chances of extending Mayer or whoever…

Just because they can doesn't mean they should.

I'm not saying that Henry shouldn't spend.  IMO, the Red Sox should spend around the luxury tax limit every year, with a willingness to go over the limit every once in a while.  What I am saying they shouldn't do is hand out those 10 year monster contracts.  There are better ways to spend money.

[mvp 78]

Just now, Kimmi said:

Just because they can doesn't mean they should.

I'm not saying that Henry shouldn't spend.  IMO, the Red Sox should spend around the luxury tax limit every year, with a willingness to go over the limit every once in a while.  What I am saying they shouldn't do is hand out those 10 year monster contracts.  There are better ways to spend money.

The fans push this team to 3rd in MLB in revenue each year with their own investment. Why continue to hold the payroll line artificially low just because?