The 2025 postseason, post-Red Sox

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

15 hours ago, notin said:

Jazz didn’t knock the ball down; he caught it cleanly.  Had it just been knocked down, maybe Hudson does send Eaton, depending how far it rolled away from Jazz…

Jazz nor any other infielder at any other level from Little League, American Legion, High School, College, or Slow-pitch Kegball was throwing from centerfield for a tag play at home plate when there was a force-out at first base that would've ended the inning...

... unless it was Banana Ball. Then Jazz would be dancing the ball over to first.

 

[dgalehouse]

The Mariners/Tigers marathon was reminiscent of the Sox/Dodgers 18 inning affair in the 2018 World Series. That game is memorable for the valiant effort by Nathan Eovaldi, finally ending with the walk-off home run by Max Muncy. The Sox would have won were it not for an uncharacteristic error by Ian Kinsler. As it is, that was the Dodger's only win in the Series as the Sox won it in five games. Now, the Mariners will play for a chance at their first ever A.L. pennant and first ever trip to the Fall Classic. 

[notin]

12 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Jazz nor any other infielder at any other level from Little League, American Legion, High School, College, or Slow-pitch Kegball was throwing from centerfield for a tag play at home plate when there was a force-out at first base that would've ended the inning...

... unless it was Banana Ball. Then Jazz would be dancing the ball over to first.

 

You keep ignoring one very obvious outcome.  What if Jazz simply held the ball and made no throw to first?

If Jazz came out of his dive and held the ball, something we have both seen 1,000 diving middle infielders do, sending Eaton means he is probably dead at the plate.  Jazz was at his feet just as Eaton was touching third and being told to stop, so therefore Jazz had three full seconds to see he had no play at first but did have a play at home.  Plenty of time.  And Hudson had no way of knowing what Jazz was going to do…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

You keep ignoring one very obvious outcome.  What if Jazz simply held the ball and made no throw to first?

If Jazz came out of his dive and held the ball, something we have both seen 1,000 diving middle infielders do, sending Eaton means he is probably dead at the plate.  Jazz was at his feet just as Eaton was touching third and being told to stop, so therefore Jazz had three full seconds to see he had no play at first but did have a play at home.  Plenty of time.  And Hudson had no way of knowing what Jazz was going to do…

I'm not ignoring that as a possibility. We just saw a pitcher with a force-out at first base overthrow home plate instead and end the Phillies season.

The big factor that no one seems to realize is that Eaton wasn't sprinting full steam ahead -- like a million baserunners in scoring position are taught to do with two outs on contact. Eaton even had a better head start since it was a full count, and should have been booking the second the pitcher lifted his front foot. 

As one of the fastest Red Sox runners, Eaton at full stride would've been halfway home before Jazz threw the ball anywhere... as a coach and player myself, I've seen plenty of guys slower than Eaton half-way down the line because they were "scoring on contact" -- sprinting until the inning ended.

Hudson held him up, but it may have been because Eaton really wasn't hustling all out. If he was, there's no excuse ever for a coach not to windmill him home, late in a tie game on the road with a chance to eliminate the hosts.

Who knows what kind of throw Jazz would've made. He wasn't exactly Greg Maddox throwing 90 feet to first with Yoshida tortoising down the line, let alone another 30 or so feet away from the plate...

[notin]

23 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I'm not ignoring that as a possibility. We just saw a pitcher with a force-out at first base overthrow home plate instead and end the Phillies season.

The big factor that no one seems to realize is that Eaton wasn't sprinting full steam ahead -- like a million baserunners in scoring position are taught to do with two outs on contact. Eaton even had a better head start since it was a full count, and should have been booking the second the pitcher lifted his front foot. 

As one of the fastest Red Sox runners, Eaton at full stride would've been halfway home before Jazz threw the ball anywhere... as a coach and player myself, I've seen plenty of guys slower than Eaton half-way down the line because they were "scoring on contact" -- sprinting until the inning ended.

Hudson held him up, but it may have been because Eaton really wasn't hustling all out. If he was, there's no excuse ever for a coach not to windmill him home, late in a tie game on the road with a chance to eliminate the hosts.

Who knows what kind of throw Jazz would've made. He wasn't exactly Greg Maddox throwing 90 feet to first with Yoshida tortoising down the line, let alone another 30 or so feet away from the plate...

Jazz absolutely could have made a bad throw.  But that’s a bad reason to send a runner.

Using StatCast numbers, Eaton runs 29.7 feet per second. Lets cal it 30.  He was exactly 90 feet from home when Jazz got to his feet.  Three seconds to home .  If Jazz looked to first and decided not to throw and took a full second to do so, Eaton is 60 feet from home plate.

Oer StatCast, Chisholm thrown 82.3 mph, which is about 120 feet per second. He was probably 130-135 feet from home, so the throw home takes just over a second.  Again, if he decides he has no play at first, Eaton would have been out by almost 25 feet.  And that’s with Jazz holding the ball for a full second, which is unlikely.  He had almost another second to make up his mind.

Kerkering panicked.  Kim was running on contact from maybe 75 feet away.  Pages was unraveling from his swing and then running just over 90 feet.  He has been taught since high school (hopefully) “know where you’re going if the all is hit to you.”  He messed up on multiple fronts…

 

 

[moonslav59]

Brewers advance!

[Duran Is The Man]

29 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Brewers advance!

i'm hoping for Mariners-Brewers WS, with the Mariners winning it all.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i'm hoping for Mariners-Brewers WS, with the Mariners winning it all.

harmony's been waiting a long time.

[Duran Is The Man]

34 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

harmony's been waiting a long time.

i have season tickets to the Mariners AA farm team in Little Rock -the Arkansas Travelers. and over the years, we've gotten to know many of the players and enjoy watching them move up and do well. until they play the Red Sox, that is. Julio, Cal, Woo, Gilbert, Kirby, and Bryce Miller among others, are all home-grown talent.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm rooting for the M's because they went all in at the trade deadline. Even though Seattle already had the MLB home run champ in Cal, plus three others -- Julio, Randy and Jorge -- with more HRs than anyone on the Red Sox, the Mariners still went out and acquired the TWO best power bats on the market: Naylor and Suarez.

The Boston Pretenders really needed at least one of those two guys -- and still do (Naylor, and please not SwingandMiss Suarez). Maybe Brez will think the cost will be worth it next July.

 

 

 

 

[Hitch]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

harmony's been waiting a long time.

I'd quite like to see Mariners Brewers in the WS. I don't have any dog in the fight so I'll pick Mariners just because it would make Harmony happy, and they seem like good people. 

[Hugh2]

I think we can all agree we’d like to see a Seattle  vs. Brewers World Series.

two teams who haven’t had it.  That would be pretty cool

[notin]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I think we can all agree we’d like to see a Seattle  vs. Brewers World Series.

two teams who haven’t had it.  That would be pretty cool

The Cubs’ loss has saddened my household. 
 

But I think we can all agree why the Brewers won - they listened to notin and acquired 4’3” Andrew “No Relation to Mo” Vaughn.

 

<sigh> When will Boston follow suit?

[Jasonbay44]

I’m like most people and want a Mariners/Brewers World Series but I have a hard time seeing any of these remaining teams beating the Dodgers in a best of 7. 

[Bellhorn04]

Runs scored in final games of LDS series:

7

5 (15 innings)

4

3 (11 innings)

Total 19 in 44 innings

Average per team 1.94 per 9 innings

Pitching dominating to an almost ridiculous degree.

[moonslav59]

I lived in Milwaukee, when the Seattle Pilots moved to Milwaukee, and I got hooked on baseball. The old County Stadium was two blocks from our home. I was a big Tommy Harper fan, and when we moved to Maine in 1970, the Brewers traded Harper to the Sox that same year, and I switched to being a Red Sox junkie.

Now, we might see SEA vs MIL, but first SEA needs to beat the Jays- the team they broke into MLB as expansion teams at the same time (1977.) Of course, MIL also has to get by the Dodgers to see the series many of us want to see.

Seattle has had some very good teams in the past, including some with many offensive weapons, but this team is overloaded with power bats, and the pitching is not as good as it has been in very recent years.

HRs

60 Raleigh 169 OPS+

46 Suarez 126 (part w AZ)

32 Julio 128

27 Arozarena 119

26 Polanco 134

20 Naylor 128 (part w AZ)

12 JP Crawford 111

11 C Dominic 142

11 Telez 93

9 Garver 86

9 Moore 79

The Brewers have 9 guys with 9+ Hrs, but not like SEA has. 12 of their top 14 batters by PAs have an OPS+ over 101. They got where they are by having their top 7 pitchers by IP with an ERA below 3.96. Their closer is 13th in IP at 47 but has a 2.40 ERA.

 

[harmony]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Seattle has had some very good teams in the past, including some with many offensive weapons, but this team is overloaded with power bats, and the pitching is not as good as it has been in very recent years.

HRs

60 Raleigh 169 OPS+

46 Suarez 126 (part w AZ)

The Brewers have 9 guys with 9+ Hrs, but not like SEA has. 12 of their top 14 batters by PAs have an OPS+ over 101. They got where they are by having their top 7 pitchers by IP with an ERA below 3.96. Their closer is 13th in IP at 47 but has a 2.40 ERA.

To be precise, Eugenio Suarez hit 49 home runs in the regular season, 36 with Arizona and 13 with Seattle:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/suareeu01.shtml

Suarez homered once in the ALDS against Detroit.

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, harmony said:

To be precise, Eugenio Suarez hit 49 home runs in the regular season, 36 with Arizona and 13 with Seattle:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/suareeu01.shtml

Suarez homered once in the ALDS against Detroit.

Yes, it was 49 in 2025. Good catch.

[notin]

7 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I'm rooting for the M's because they went all in at the trade deadline. Even though Seattle already had the MLB home run champ in Cal, plus three others -- Julio, Randy and Jorge -- with more HRs than anyone on the Red Sox, the Mariners still went out and acquired the TWO best power bats on the market: Naylor and Suarez.

The Boston Pretenders really needed at least one of those two guys -- and still do (Naylor, and please not SwingandMiss Suarez). Maybe Brez will think the cost will be worth it next July.

 

 

 

 

Are you also rooting for the Brewers? Their big deadline acquisitions were Shelby Miller, who was on the IL at the time, and Jordan Montgomery, who was also on the IL at the time, and still is…

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, it was 49 in 2025. Good catch.

MLB home run leaders, 2016-2025 (last 10 seasons)

1. Aaron Judge (368)

2. Kyle Schwarber (324)

3. Eugenio Suarez (308)

4. Manny Machado (301)

5. Matt Olson (288)

 

Who knew THAT about Senior Suarez?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Are you also rooting for the Brewers?

Of course. My brother-in-law is a brewer, and most brewers have been losing business since the pandemic (the industry is its own worst enemy, saturating taps with a million different IPAs -- which I can't drink because hoppy-hoppy-hoppy makes my old-man esophagus unhoppy, but what do I know? I've been told I'm "not the market" -- just give me some pilsner so I can watch the games and not get too excited).

But the best reason to root for both Milwaukee and Seattle is that Milwaukee IS Seattle -- in baseball roots. The Seattle Pilots were an infamous expansion team that beat the Red Sox in my first ever game at Fenway Park in 1969 -- which was their only year in existence; the next season they moved to Milwaukee and became the Brewers. 

Plus, Jim Bouton pitched for the Pilots, the year he kept notes for the greatest baseball book ever written: Ball Four.

[notin]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Of course. My brother-in-law is a brewer, and most brewers have been losing business since the pandemic (the industry is its own worst enemy, saturating taps with a million different IPAs -- which I can't drink because hoppy-hoppy-hoppy makes my old-man esophagus unhoppy, but what do I know? I've been told I'm "not the market" -- just give me some pilsner so I can watch the games and not get too excited).

But the best reason to root for both Milwaukee and Seattle is that Milwaukee IS Seattle -- in baseball roots. The Seattle Pilots were an infamous expansion team that beat the Red Sox in my first ever game at Fenway Park in 1969 -- which was their only year in existence; the next season they moved to Milwaukee and became the Brewers. 

Plus, Jim Bouton pitched for the Pilots, the year he kept notes for the greatest baseball book ever written: Ball Four.

Despite my teetotaler tendencies, I will also be rooting for the Brewers.  Partly because - f*** the Dodgers.  Partly because they haven’t been to the series since 1982 with Harvey’s Wallbangers…

[Duran Is The Man]

34 minutes ago, notin said:

Despite my teetotaler tendencies, I will also be rooting for the Brewers.  Partly because - f*** the Dodgers.  Partly because they haven’t been to the series since 1982 with Harvey’s Wallbangers…

my feelings exactly.

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, notin said:

MLB home run leaders, 2016-2025 (last 10 seasons)

1. Aaron Judge (368)

2. Kyle Schwarber (324)

3. Eugenio Suarez (308)

4. Manny Machado (301)

5. Matt Olson (288)

 

Who knew THAT about Senior Suarez?

I'd like Suarez as a 1Bman/back-up 3Bman on a shorter term deal.

[FredLynn]

On 10/5/2025 at 2:00 PM, Bellhorn04 said:

One more time:

Go Jays!

Yeah

Go Jays. But the Jays are now down 1-0 in their series to the M’s who significantly improved their team at the deadline to get into the position they’re in-like we should have done. 
See what happens when you are aggressive at the TD?

[mvp 78]

On 10/11/2025 at 9:26 PM, notin said:

Jazz absolutely could have made a bad throw.  But that’s a bad reason to send a runner.

Using StatCast numbers, Eaton runs 29.7 feet per second. Lets cal it 30.  He was exactly 90 feet from home when Jazz got to his feet.  Three seconds to home .  If Jazz looked to first and decided not to throw and took a full second to do so, Eaton is 60 feet from home plate.

Oer StatCast, Chisholm thrown 82.3 mph, which is about 120 feet per second. He was probably 130-135 feet from home, so the throw home takes just over a second.  Again, if he decides he has no play at first, Eaton would have been out by almost 25 feet.  And that’s with Jazz holding the ball for a full second, which is unlikely.  He had almost another second to make up his mind.

Kerkering panicked.  Kim was running on contact from maybe 75 feet away.  Pages was unraveling from his swing and then running just over 90 feet.  He has been taught since high school (hopefully) “know where you’re going if the all is hit to you.”  He messed up on multiple fronts…

Does Jazz blink and the ball automatically leaves his body at 80+ mph? 

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, notin said:

Despite my teetotaler tendencies, I will also be rooting for the Brewers.  Partly because - f*** the Dodgers.  Partly because they haven’t been to the series since 1982 with Harvey’s Wallbangers…

Rooting for the Brewers because they play the game the right way (high bb rate, low k rate, good defense, good pitching). 

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Does Jazz blink and the ball automatically leaves his body at 80+ mph? 

Does the act of throwing take over two full seconds?

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Does the act of throwing take over two full seconds?

You said "he had almost another second to make up his mind." He's going to take a full second to make up his mind and then throw home while Eaton is already in full sprint, the catcher has to get the ball AND tag Eaton? Seems like a more difficult play that you are making it out to be. 

[notin]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

You said "he had almost another second to make up his mind." He's going to take a full second to make up his mind and then throw home while Eaton is already in full sprint, the catcher has to get the ball AND tag Eaton? Seems like a more difficult play that you are making it out to be. 

But the bottom line is Hudson had to take the possibility into account.  Difficult play or not (including my hypotheticals), it wasn’t some simple no brainer many make it out to be.

Had Hudson sent him, he scores easily, but Hudson had no idea if Chisholm would go to first and what would happen next.  He certainly didn’t know Chisholm would one-hop the throw or that Rice wouldn’t be able to field it.  And Hudson didn’t have time to consult his Ouija board or Tarot cards or Magic 8-ball or whatever prophesying device of preference he employs.  
 

Maybe if Wong (or similar) was up next, I could understand sending Eaton.   But with Story up, I understand his conservative decision…