A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[UtahSox]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I dont' think 2027 is a lost season, but I think it's very very likely they're going to miss games. 

Inevitably, I’m sure every front office is using it to their advantage. If you’re trying to get a guy who is signed through 2027, you’re telling the team you don’t think they’re gonna play in 2027. Conversely, if you’re selling a guy under contract through 2027 you’re telling the buying team you think there will be a full season in 27

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Well maybe that’s why I liked those deals so much? Ha

LOL. One never knows what other GMs want, need and like.

[UtahSox]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

LOL. One never knows what other GMs want, need and like.

If this is the case BTV is do off right now. 

[UtahSox]

Could you make a case for O’Neil Cruz? Savant analysis is superstar status, but for whatever reason it’s not working in Pittsburgh… BTV has him at 21.4 surplus I view him closer to 70 Surplus but he would be a giant LH bat we severely need. 

[moonslav59]

2025-2026 DRS

Abrams (-10) is the worst of SS's being talked about. OAA (-17), too. He's worse than Story.

Bogey (-7 DRA/ +13 OAA) and Adames (-1 DRS/ -7 OAA) are also bad.

-1 Lindor (+8 OAA)

+1 Pena (+5 OAA)

+2 IKF in way less innings

+14 Lopez (+8 OAA)

+15 Neto (-16 OAA)

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

If this is the case BTV is do off right now. 

BTV has your trade as 52.5 to MIA and 37.9 to BOS.

They accept the trade as a moderate overpay.

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Could you make a case for O’Neil Cruz? Savant analysis is superstar status, but for whatever reason it’s not working in Pittsburgh… BTV has him at 21.4 surplus I view him closer to 70 Surplus but he would be a giant LH bat we severely need. 

LHB with pull power who probably needs to play LF. Big hole in his swing. He's probably not a 70 surplus guy considering he arb raises he's about to get. 

[moonslav59]

I'm thinking a LH'd power bat would be better than a RHB. Ideally the LHB would be the type that goes oppo often.

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm thinking a LH'd power bat would be better than a RHB. Ideally the LHB would be the type that goes oppo often.

Who cares as long as they’re productive.🙈

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm thinking a LH'd power bat would be better than a RHB. Ideally the LHB would be the type that goes oppo often.

I would agree with this line of thinking. 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Who cares as long as they’re productive.🙈

Because they'd be MORE productive at Fenway if they could go OPPO. 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Because they'd be MORE productive at Fenway if they could go OPPO. 

Most productive batters go oppo.

[Old Red]

38 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Because they'd be MORE productive at Fenway if they could go OPPO. 

More productive then if they were a RHB pull hitter?

[mvp 78]

56 minutes ago, Old Red said:

More productive then if they were a RHB pull hitter?

About the same TBH. If they are a flyball hitter at Fenway, but can't go oppo, it really hurts them. HR's are really reduced at Fenway for LHB, but 2B's are increased due to the Monster and the expansive RF. 

[JoeBrady]

5 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

but we have to be willing to lose alternative arms like Witherspoon, Holobetz, Rivera, etc.

Of course.  As I always say, no one will trade for us unless they get someone back that they hope will have some success.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, UtahSox said:

Well maybe that’s why I liked those deals so much? Ha

I think that's pretty close.  A team like Miami might not have that much interest in keeping Alcantara due to his salary.

[moonslav59]

How about Liam Hicks & Alcantara for Mayer, Wong & Cespedes?

BTV accepts.

They also accept Arias, Wong & KC for Lopez, Hicks & Alcantara

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm thinking a LH'd power bat would be better than a RHB. Ideally the LHB would be the type that goes oppo often.

Or just pulls pop-ups in the Bronx.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Or just pulls pop-ups in the Bronx.

LOL

Most of the Sox best hitters have been lefties.

We hit LHPs about 100 points better than RHPs, this year, and we face RHPs about 70% of the time.

Why is getting a RHB better than a LHB?

[Bellhorn04]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

LOL

Most of the Sox best hitters have been lefties.

We hit LHPs about 100 points better than RHPs, this year, and we face RHPs about 70% of the time.

Why is getting a RHB better than a LHB?

You're right, we are hitting lefties much better than righties.  I think the idea we needed a righty bat developed earlier in the season when Durbin was struggling so badly.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

You're right, we are hitting lefties much better than righties.  I think the idea we needed a righty bat developed earlier in the season when Durbin was struggling so badly.

Yes, but even early in the season, when Durbin and almost everybody else was slumping, we still hit better vs LHPs.

[moonslav59]

Sox splits

v R

.910 Contreras

.804 IKF

.800 Siegler

.729 Wong

.726 Rafaela

.714 Yoshida

.699 Durbin

.683 Anthony

.681 Alonso....err.... I mean ....Gasper

.652 Abreu

.642 Monasterio

.599 Duran

.540 Story

.523 Mayer

,518 Narvaez

_______________

v LHPs

.999 Abreu (massive reverse splits, this year)

.987 Contreras

.888 Monasterio

.854 Rafaela

.804 Yoshida

.773 Wong

.693 Romy

.677 Narvaez

.656 Anthony

.652 Siegler

.600 Duran

.566 Story

.487 IKF

(1.386 Mayer in just 18 PAs)

 

[UtahSox]

Could have had Silseth and O’Hoppe for a bag of peanuts…. Sure as sh** would rather have O’Hoppe taking AB’s in lieu of Narvaez

[notin]

1 hour ago, UtahSox said:

Could have had Silseth and O’Hoppe for a bag of peanuts…. Sure as sh** would rather have O’Hoppe taking AB’s in lieu of Narvaez

The Sox missed out on a chance to upgrade from a .550 OPS to a .565!

WTF Breslow!!   

 

[Larry Cook]

On 7/28/2026 at 6:38 AM, moonslav59 said:

Yes, because it takes time to recover from major injuries.

He did improve from 2025 to 2026 (120 in ERA and 22 in FIP)

He leads the league in IP, which can be a good thing (innings eater?) or a bad thing (chance to burn out or get hurt?)

I like him over rentals like 35.5 y/o Gausman or multi year guys like 33.5 y/o Castillo, near 37 y/o Lugo and some others mentioned.

I'm looking for SP'er health without the need to empty the farm. I'm open to better suggestions.

The brewers could fix him! 

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

The brewers could fix him! 

No doubt! He could be the 2027 Cy Young after they burn out Misio.

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS since May 27th (half of our played games to date) Under 50 PAs is listed

1.467 Jones (15 PAs)

.965 Contreras

.887 Durbin

.869 Monasterio

.780 Wong

.759 Siegler

.750 Rafaela

(League OPS since May 27th: .730)

.720 Yoshida

.711 Abreu

.692 IKF

.649 Mayer

.600 Cheng (44)

.572 Romy

.563 Eaton (39)

.557 Duran

.545 Gasper

.462 Sogard (14)

.413 Narvaez 

 

[moonslav59]

fWAR since May 27th:

2.1 Durbin

2.0 Suarez

1.8 Rafaela & Contreras

1.5 Bennett

1.1 Tolle

1.1 Gray

0.7 Whitlock & Abreu

0.6 Guerrero & IKF

0.5 Slaten, Chapman & Monasterio

0.4 Early, Bello & Sandoval

0.3 Moran, Wong, Jones & Seigler

0.1 Watson, Weissert, Mayer, Eaton & Gamboa

0.0 Yoshida & Cheng

-0.1 Sogard, Kahnle & Coulombe

-0.2 Romy

-0.3 Gasper

-0.4 Narvaez & Duran

[moonslav59]

ERA- Leaders since May 27th:

19 Guerrero

20 Whitlock

38 Moran

52 Gamboa

56 Bennett & Gray

69 Chapman & 70 Suarez

76 Sandoval

82 Early, 83 Watson, 86 Bello & 89 Tolle

99 Weissert

104 Coulombe

111 Slaten

184 Kahnle & 217 Rivera

[JoeBrady]

10 hours ago, UtahSox said:

Could have had Silseth and O’Hoppe for a bag of peanuts…. Sure as sh** would rather have O’Hoppe taking AB’s in lieu of Narvaez

So the -0.6 bWAR over the -0.4 bWAR.  And taking the higher negative WAR is maybe offset by disturbing the pitchers' rythmns?